Daury Arias — OGILVIE

Daury AriasCF Tampa Tarpons

Age 24 L/L 5'11" / 172 lbs A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 95 proj PA

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .266 / .305

PA8

HR0

K%30

BB%8

ISO111

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	19	ROK	DSL Yankees 2	—	222	181	52	10	1	8	38	30	2	9	2	287	414	486	901	199	308	14	17	401	157	+15	+1	—	—	+5	2.1
2022	20	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	217	171	39	10	0	5	34	39	9	5	4	228	383	374	757	146	262	18	16	347	121	+5	-1	—	—	+5	1.0
2023	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	418	355	77	14	2	6	58	86	5	11	1	217	335	318	653	101	270	21	14	305	93	-4	+2	—	—	+9	0.7
2024	22	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	199	175	30	7	0	2	20	54	3	6	2	171	268	246	513	74	233	27	10	243	50	-12	+0	—	—	+4	-0.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 2	—	222	197	41	7	1	6	23	45	2	9	2	208	297	345	642	137	234	20	10	279	75	-7	+1	—	—	+5	-0.1
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	217	184	30	7	0	4	21	57	9	5	4	163	280	266	547	103	198	26	10	243	51	-13	-1	—	—	+5	-0.9
2023	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	418	373	68	13	2	4	40	125	5	11	1	182	270	260	530	78	262	30	10	244	51	-24	+2	—	—	+9	-1.4
2024	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	199	181	22	5	0	2	14	80	3	6	2	122	197	182	379	61	199	40	7	174	4	-23	+0	—	—	+4	-1.8
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 2	—	222	197	41	7	1	6	23	45	2	9	2	208	297	345	642	137	240	20	10	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Yankees 2	—	222	181	52	10	1	8	38	30	2	9	2	287	414	486	901	199	308	14	17	401	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	217	184	30	7	0	4	21	57	9	5	4	163	280	266	547	103	206	26	10	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	—	217	171	39	10	0	5	34	39	9	5	4	228	383	374	757	146	262	18	16	347	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	418	373	68	13	2	4	40	125	5	11	1	182	270	260	530	78	262	30	10	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	—	418	355	77	14	2	6	58	86	5	11	1	217	335	318	653	101	270	21	14	305	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	199	181	22	5	0	2	14	80	3	6	2	122	197	182	379	61	200	40	7	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	—	199	175	30	7	0	2	20	54	3	6	2	171	268	246	513	74	233	27	10	243	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 2	—	222	195	41	7	1	6	23	45	2	9	2	210	297	349	646	138	234	20	10	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	217	185	30	7	0	4	21	57	9	5	4	162	280	265	545	103	198	26	10	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	418	370	68	13	2	4	40	125	5	11	1	184	270	262	532	78	262	30	10	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	199	180	22	5	0	2	14	80	3	6	2	122	197	183	380	61	199	40	7	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	418	370	68	13	2	4	40	125	5	11	1	184	270	262	532	78	262	30	10	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	199	180	22	5	0	2	14	80	3	6	2	122	197	183	380	61	199	40	7	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	24	MLB MLE	NYY	0%	8	7	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	143	250	143	393		269	25	12	262	63	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	NYY	30%	136	122	26	5	1	3	11	40	2	2	1	213	289	344	633	131	272	29	8	273	71	-5	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	44%	240	216	45	9	1	6	19	69	3	4	1	208	282	343	624	134	274	29	8	280	76	-7	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYY	49%	303	273	57	11	1	8	24	86	3	5	1	209	280	344	624	136	275	28	8	282	77	-8	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYY	51%	344	309	64	13	1	8	28	97	4	6	1	207	282	333	615	126	275	28	8	283	77	-9	+1	-1	+1	+7	-0.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	363	326	68	13	1	9	30	104	4	6	1	209	283	337	621	129	274	29	8	281	76	-10	+1	-1	+1	+8	-0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYY	54%	373	335	69	13	1	9	31	107	4	5	1	206	281	331	612	125	273	29	8	278	74	-11	+1	-2	+1	+8	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	NYY	30%	41	38	8	2	0	1	3	12	0	1	0	211	268	342	610	132	274	29	7	269	71	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	44%	106	96	20	4	0	3	8	30	1	2	0	208	276	344	620	135	276	28	8	276	76	-3	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYY	49%	148	133	29	6	1	4	12	42	2	3	1	218	293	368	661	150	277	28	8	278	77	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYY	51%	177	159	35	7	1	5	14	50	2	3	1	220	291	371	662	151	277	28	8	278	77	-5	+0	-0	+1	+4	-0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	202	181	39	8	1	5	17	58	2	3	1	215	290	354	644	138	276	29	8	277	76	-6	+0	-1	+1	+4	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYY	54%	201	180	38	7	1	5	17	58	2	3	1	211	286	344	631	133	275	29	8	274	74	-6	+0	-1	+1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	875	787	169	34	4	23	71	250	9	15	4	215	287	356	643	141	281	29	8	276	65	-25	+1	-2	+3	+19	-0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	125	25	3	17	53	186	7	11	3	214	287	354	641	140	280	29	8	276	65	-19	+1	-2	+2	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2823	2523	491	96	9	59	242	812	39	59	15	195	275	310	585	115	259	29	9	264	65	-51	+3	-4	+6	+38	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	113	22	2	14	56	187	9	14	3	194	276	312	587	117	258	29	9	264	65	-19	+1	-2	+2	+14	-0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.5	971	23	16	209	279	338	+3	+10	0.2	0.3
/162	664	16	11	+2.4	+6.8	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Daury Arias (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	195/266/305	110	269	2	2	30%	8%	63	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Meyers 2023 · A	24	42→45	44→50	51→40	43	210/272/331	121	280	12	9	28%	7%	70	-0.8	225/283/368	143	295	17	5	29%	6%	83	+0.1	222/283/366	144	287	17	3	28%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Grant Witherspoon 2021 · A	24	40→46	40→50	52→50	40	196/246/290	94	274	8	13	31%	6%	51	-2.3	218/273/365	147	298	17	13	31%	7%	78	-0.3	213/273/363	150	289	18	14	32%	7%	75	-0.3
✕Brian O'Grady 2016 · A	24	39→38	43→55	54→50	48	196/273/312	116	263	10	14	28%	9%	67	-1.1	193/273/316	123	270	11	13	31%	9%	68	-1.0	208/271/384	177	275	20	15	31%	7%	81	-0.0
✕LJ Talley 2021 · A	24	38→46	43→45	50	42	195/250/305	110	253	12	6	28%	6%	56	-1.9	217/275/327	110	276	11	9	24%	7%	70	-0.8	213/276/318	105	268	11	10	24%	7%	66	-0.7
✕Tanner Allen 2022 · A	24	40	42→45	44→45	43	200/253/300	100	251	9	7	24%	6%	56	-1.9	203/258/301	98	251	9	7	22%	6%	58	-1.7	200/259/296	96	246	9	7	22%	6%	54	-1.0
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	40→38	45→40	55→50	46	202/283/328	125	257	12	15	26%	8%	75	-0.5	216/303/308	92	269	8	14	21%	9%	78	-0.3	215/312/285	70	264	6	15	19%	9%	74	-0.3
✕Christopher Familia 2023 · A	23	40	46→55	47→45	45	203/281/331	128	258	14	8	26%	8%	74	-0.5	219/278/387	168	291	21	4	31%	6%	86	+0.3	217/271/408	191	280	27	0	32%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Carter Williams 2022 · A	24	42	45	49→45	37	215/248/344	130	283	12	9	29%	4%	63	-1.3	226/273/352	126	296	14	9	28%	5%	75	-0.5	225/274/345	121	290	15	9	27%	5%	74	-0.3
✕Matthew Acosta 2022 · A	24	45	43→45	53→50	47	217/290/334	118	298	10	9	29%	9%	78	-0.3	205/272/314	109	298	10	13	32%	8%	67	-1.1	179/250/276	97	261	10	16	34%	8%	48	-1.5
✕Matthew Sweeney 2012 · AA	24	34→40	43→50	49→45	41	177/244/286	109	256	11	4	34%	7%	50	-2.3	202/259/311	109	280	9	6	30%	7%	61	-1.5	212/252/322	109	275	6	0	24%	5%	57	-0.4
✕Mark Contreras 2019 · A	24	39→38	42→50	46→55	38	194/256/302	108	290	9	11	35%	6%	57	-1.8	185/249/303	118	274	11	13	35%	6%	56	-1.9	196/258/325	129	284	15	24	35%	6%	61	-1.1
✕Reid Fronk 2010 · A	24	42→48	43→45	44→50	46	206/292/318	112	279	10	10	28%	8%	76	-0.4	203/288/294	91	286	5	8	28%	9%	69	-0.9	196/287/282	85	279	3	7	28%	9%	64	-0.9
✕Oliver Dunn 2022 · AA	24	39→46	44→45	53→55	46	189/273/305	116	294	11	14	37%	10%	65	-1.2	219/303/367	148	341	14	14	36%	10%	91	+0.6	202/286/331	129	310	11	20	35%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Jackson Cluff 2021 · A	24	40→30	42→45	51→60	40	198/263/305	106	283	9	12	32%	6%	61	-1.5	183/253/275	92	279	7	13	35%	7%	51	-2.2	179/271/301	122	264	12	28	34%	10%	62	-0.8
✕Patrick Bailey 2023 · A	24	38→48	46→45	47→45	46	195/269/321	126	268	13	5	31%	9%	68	-1.0	226/287/344	118	301	12	5	27%	8%	78	-0.3	231/291/344	113	305	11	4	27%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Kyle Isbel 2021 · A	24	42→52	45→50	52→55	39	213/260/335	122	280	12	16	28%	5%	66	-1.1	227/285/358	131	289	12	18	25%	6%	82	-0.0	229/287/366	137	285	12	19	24%	6%	82	+0.0
✕Cam Gibson 2018 · A	24	38→41	45	54→55	42	195/252/320	125	262	11	15	30%	7%	60	-1.6	200/264/305	105	277	9	19	29%	7%	61	-1.5	191/261/284	93	266	7	22	29%	7%	53	-1.6
●Ryan Schimpf 2012 · A	24	37→41	46→60	51→45	40	191/261/329	138	276	13	8	34%	7%	67	-1.1	196/273/362	166	261	19	5	31%	8%	79	-0.2	202/284/418	216	238	27	2	28%	9%	93	+0.7
✕Kevin Rivers 2013 · A	24	41→44	45→50	45	43	204/276/330	125	290	12	6	32%	8%	72	-0.7	212/274/339	127	294	11	6	30%	8%	73	-0.6	209/270/338	129	284	11	4	29%	8%	69	-0.7
✕Robert Neustrom 2021 · A	24	44	43→45	49→50	41	216/264/328	111	285	10	7	28%	6%	66	-1.1	216/270/345	129	268	13	12	24%	6%	73	-0.6	208/265/340	132	252	14	14	23%	6%	67	-0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps