Daury Arias — OGILVIE

Daury AriasCF Tampa Tarpons

Age 24 L/L 5'11" / 172 lbs A HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 95 proj PA

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .262 / .302

PA95

HR2

K%31

BB%7

ISO110

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	19	ROK	DSL Yankees 2	—	222	198	40	7	1	6	22	47	2	9	2	202	288	338	627	136	234	21	10	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK	DSL Yankees 2	—	222	181	52	10	1	8	38	30	2	9	2	287	414	486	901	199	308	14	17	401	165	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	217	185	30	7	0	3	20	57	9	5	4	162	276	249	524	86	211	26	9	242	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	217	171	39	10	0	5	34	39	9	5	4	228	383	374	757	146	262	18	16	347	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	418	375	69	14	2	4	38	129	5	11	1	184	268	264	532	80	269	31	9	241	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	418	355	77	14	2	6	58	86	5	11	1	217	335	318	653	101	270	21	14	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	199	182	21	5	0	2	13	84	3	6	2	115	187	176	363	60	196	42	7	166	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	199	175	30	7	0	2	20	54	3	6	2	171	268	246	513	74	233	27	10	243	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	MLB	NYY	—	95	87	16	3	0	2	7	29	1	2	0	184	253	287	540	103	269	31	7	258	56	-5	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	NYY	30%	136	123	25	5	1	3	10	41	2	2	1	203	274	333	607	130	272	30	7	270	65	-5	+0	+0	+0	+4	-0.1
2028	26	MLB	NYY	44%	240	216	45	9	1	6	19	71	3	4	1	208	282	343	624	134	274	30	8	277	70	-8	+0	+0	+1	+7	0.0
2029	27	MLB	NYY	49%	303	273	56	11	1	7	24	88	3	5	1	205	277	330	606	125	275	29	8	280	72	-9	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.1
2030	28	MLB	NYY	51%	344	309	64	13	1	8	28	100	4	6	1	207	282	333	615	126	275	29	8	280	72	-11	+1	-1	+1	+10	0.0
2027	25	MLB	NYY	30%	41	38	7	1	0	1	3	12	0	1	0	184	244	289	533	105	274	29	7	264	60	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2028	26	MLB	NYY	44%	106	96	20	4	0	3	8	31	1	2	0	208	276	344	620	135	276	29	8	272	66	-4	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.0
2029	27	MLB	NYY	49%	148	133	29	6	1	4	12	43	2	3	1	218	293	368	661	150	277	29	8	274	68	-5	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.0
2030	28	MLB	NYY	51%	177	159	35	7	1	5	14	52	2	3	1	220	291	371	662	151	277	29	8	274	68	-6	+0	-0	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	472	426	91	18	2	13	37	138	5	9	2	214	284	357	641	143	281	29	8	273	67	-18	+1	-0	+2	+13	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	126	25	3	18	51	190	7	12	3	215	285	359	645	145	282	29	8	273	67	-24	+1	-0	+2	+18	-0.3
Career	—			—	2174	1948	366	74	7	41	181	646	32	50	13	188	268	296	564	108	256	30	8	255	53	-114	+5	-1	+8	+62	-4.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	109	22	2	12	54	193	10	15	4	187	268	294	562	107	255	30	8	255	53	-34	+1	-0	+2	+18	-1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	19	ROK	DSL Yankees 2	—	222	181	52	10	1	8	38	30	2	9	2	287	414	486	901	199	308	14	17	401	165	+16	+1	—	—	+6	2.4
2022	20	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	217	171	39	10	0	5	34	39	9	5	4	228	383	374	757	146	262	18	16	347	124	+6	-1	—	—	+6	1.2
2023	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	418	355	77	14	2	6	58	86	5	11	1	217	335	318	653	101	270	21	14	305	92	-4	+2	—	—	+12	1.0
2024	22	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	199	175	30	7	0	2	20	54	3	6	2	171	268	246	513	74	233	27	10	243	44	-13	+0	—	—	+6	-0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	567	13	10	206	275	334	+2	+8	-0.1	-0.0
	/162	664	16	12	206	275	334	+2.4	+8.8	-0.2	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Daury Arias (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	193/262/302	109	269	2	2	31%	7%	56	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕LJ Talley 2021 · A	24	38→48	43→45	50	41	193/248/299	105	257	11	6	29%	6%	48	-1.9	219/279/338	119	279	13	9	25%	7%	71	-0.3	216/280/332	116	270	13	10	24%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Chris Meyers 2023 · A	24	42→44	44→55	51→45	42	209/269/330	121	281	12	9	29%	7%	65	-0.7	226/282/380	154	300	19	5	30%	6%	84	+0.6	223/282/380	157	291	20	3	30%	6%	81	+0.3
✕Grant Witherspoon 2021 · A	24	39→45	39→50	52→50	39	192/242/278	86	277	7	13	32%	6%	39	-2.5	220/275/371	151	299	19	13	32%	7%	79	+0.3	215/275/371	156	290	20	14	32%	7%	75	+0.0
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	39→36	44→40	55→50	44	196/275/315	119	256	11	15	27%	7%	64	-0.8	212/300/304	92	266	8	14	22%	9%	72	-0.2	211/311/283	71	261	6	15	19%	10%	69	-0.2
✕Mark Contreras 2019 · A	24	40→37	42→50	47→55	38	194/256/300	106	290	9	11	35%	6%	52	-1.6	186/249/308	122	277	12	13	36%	6%	52	-1.6	197/258/338	141	284	18	24	36%	6%	60	-0.8
✕Jackson Cluff 2021 · A	24	39→29	42→45	51→60	39	193/259/298	104	285	9	12	34%	6%	53	-1.5	180/251/274	94	284	8	13	37%	7%	44	-2.1	181/273/314	133	265	15	28	35%	10%	61	-0.6
✕Adrian Del Castillo 2023 · A	23	36→43	44→50	52→40	42	187/249/306	120	252	12	7	30%	7%	51	-1.7	207/278/346	139	286	15	3	31%	8%	73	-0.1	222/289/402	180	281	22	1	28%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Christopher Familia 2023 · A	23	39	45→55	47→45	45	200/277/324	124	256	13	8	27%	7%	68	-0.5	216/273/378	162	292	20	4	32%	6%	80	+0.4	212/264/396	184	278	26	0	33%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Jake Ring 2019 · A	24	41→45	44→45	49→50	41	201/262/317	115	289	11	10	33%	7%	59	-1.1	192/253/298	106	300	10	7	37%	7%	50	-1.8	143/202/246	103	234	12	2	43%	6%	12	-1.4
✕Robert Neustrom 2021 · A	24	44→45	43→50	49→50	41	217/263/330	113	284	11	7	27%	6%	62	-0.9	221/274/361	140	273	15	12	24%	6%	76	+0.0	217/271/362	145	261	16	14	23%	6%	71	-0.2
✕Carter Williams 2022 · A	24	42	45	49→45	35	213/243/339	126	285	12	9	30%	4%	56	-1.3	228/273/355	127	301	14	9	28%	5%	73	-0.1	227/276/351	124	295	15	9	28%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Tanner Allen 2022 · A	24	40	42→50	44→45	43	202/256/306	104	251	10	7	24%	6%	53	-1.5	204/260/310	106	250	10	7	22%	6%	56	-1.3	201/260/306	105	244	11	7	22%	6%	50	-0.8
✕Steele Walker 2019 · A	23	37→46	43→45	49→50	38	192/244/297	105	256	11	10	29%	5%	46	-2.0	216/269/331	115	270	10	10	23%	6%	65	-0.7	216/270/338	122	261	12	10	22%	6%	64	-0.5
✕Brian O'Grady 2016 · A	24	39→37	43→60	54→50	48	193/272/304	111	262	10	14	29%	9%	60	-1.0	191/270/313	122	269	12	13	31%	9%	62	-0.9	207/269/398	192	270	24	15	32%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Jacob Rhinesmith 2021 · A	25	41→44	42→45	49→50	45	202/264/307	105	253	9	11	24%	7%	57	-1.2	211/277/319	108	281	9	9	27%	7%	66	-0.6	214/284/342	128	275	11	8	25%	8%	72	-0.2
✕Jose Brizuela 2016 · A	23	41→40	43→50	50→45	46	204/274/320	117	274	10	7	28%	8%	65	-0.7	211/268/334	123	297	13	5	32%	7%	66	-0.6	195/247/325	130	268	17	1	33%	6%	52	-0.7
✕Matthew Sweeney 2012 · AA	24	34→40	43→50	49→45	41	177/244/289	112	260	11	4	35%	7%	44	-2.1	202/260/313	111	281	9	6	30%	7%	56	-1.3	212/253/318	106	275	4	0	24%	5%	51	-0.3
✕Shayne Fontana 2022 · AA	25	40	41→45	48→55	46	193/273/296	103	282	8	8	32%	9%	58	-1.2	214/297/319	105	298	10	14	29%	9%	75	-0.0	219/304/318	98	295	10	19	27%	8%	75	-0.0
✕Devin Foyle 2021 · A	24	42→36	40→45	48→45	45	201/279/294	93	296	8	12	32%	9%	60	-1.0	209/277/348	139	270	16	8	28%	8%	73	-0.1	196/269/342	145	244	18	6	27%	8%	65	-0.4
✕Preston Beck 2015 · A	24	42→44	42→45	48→45	49	207/286/315	108	269	9	8	26%	9%	69	-0.4	212/271/319	107	265	9	7	22%	7%	63	-0.9	214/263/314	100	274	9	3	24%	5%	55	-0.9