Edwar Chirinos prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Edwar Chirinos P DSL Phillies Red

Age 21 LHP 5'10" / 160 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113121vR 129

ERA5.04

FIP5.04

K%22.6%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	13	1	25	105	33	13	0	8%	1.9	21.4%	15.5%	5.9%	0.0%	2.49	3.26	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	13	1	25	105	33	13	0	8%	1.9	31.4%	12.4%	19.0%	0.0%	2.49	2.03	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	16	3	34	166	37	31	3	19%	2.1	15.2%	23.3%	-8.2%	2.4%	6.55	6.10	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	16	3	34	166	37	31	3	19%	2.1	15.2%	23.3%	-8.2%	2.4%	6.55	6.10	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	16	3	34	166	37	31	3	19%	2.1	22.3%	18.7%	3.6%	1.8%	6.55	4.79	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	21	MLB	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.6%	14.4%	8.2%	3.0%	5.04	5.04	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	PHI	20	0	21	90	21	11	3	0%	1.1	23.6%	12.5%	11.1%	2.9%	4.80	4.69	-0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	PHI	10	0	11	46	11	6	1	0%	1.1	23.6%	12.5%	11.1%	2.9%	4.80	4.69	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	44	10	6	1	0%	1.1	23.6%	12.5%	11.1%	2.9%	4.80	4.31	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	114	19	0%	1.1	23.6%	12.5%	11.1%	2.9%	4.80	4.31	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		29	4	60	271	48	55	4	14%	2.1	17.6%	20.3%	-2.7%	1.5%	4.83	5.00	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	13	200	908	160	184	13	14%	2.1	17.6%	20.3%	-2.7%	1.5%	4.83	5.00	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Edwar Chirinos (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.04	22.6%	14.4%	3.0%	—	4.69	23.6%	11.1%	21	-0.35	—	—	—
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	84
Destin Dotson L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	21	SU	3.90	22.3%	12.2%	2.1%	.288	5.84	23.0%	3.1%	48	+1.94	2.90	113	83
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	82
Jonathan Hennigan L 2017 · 4.08 FIP	22	SU	4.08	22.0%	13.6%	2.0%	.341	3.57	17.5%	5.8%	119	-0.51	3.46	265	82
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	81
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	81
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	81
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	80
Manuel Medina L 2023 · 5.09 FIP	21	SU	5.09	22.3%	11.2%	4.5%	.319	2.79	24.2%	15.4%	78	-2.30	1.26	157	79
Anfernny Reyes L 2023 · 4.98 FIP	19	SU	4.98	21.6%	13.6%	3.6%	.282	4.34	21.0%	1.8%	99	-0.64	2.89	175	79
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.89	22.1%	8.8%	105	-0.31	3.14	161	79
Adrian Almeida L 2016 · 5.65 FIP	21	SU	5.65	18.6%	15.3%	4.0%	.295	4.97	18.4%	-4.1%	119	-0.68	4.27	188	78
Evan Taylor L 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	28.1%	16.5%	2.7%	.304	3.19	21.9%	10.0%	150	-1.12	3.09	225	77
Yokelvin Reyes L 2023 · 3.94 FIP	19	SU	3.94	20.1%	12.8%	1.7%	.293	4.48	16.0%	4.1%	166	+0.54	3.50	221	77
Caden Monke L 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.38	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	4.35	164	77
Denny Bentley L 2018 · 4.85 FIP	20	SU	4.85	19.6%	10.3%	3.8%	.318	2.88	25.4%	10.3%	58	-1.97	2.88	175	77
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	77
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	77
Will Mabrey L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	22	SU	4.27	18.5%	12.6%	2.1%	.256	4.27	19.2%	6.6%	62	+0.00	4.14	128	76
Brandon Neeck L 2023 · 4.19 FIP	23	SU	4.19	21.0%	13.9%	2.0%	.419	4.24	22.9%	8.7%	176	+0.05	3.24	203	76