Derek Bernard

SS Fresno Grizzlies

Age 21 L/R 5'11" / 190 lbs A HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

APROSPECTFG #400MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP45ETA2029FG ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	ACOL	290	.302/.387/.448	6	13	86	—	.247/.310/.361
2025	19	ROKCOL	30	.345/.367/.483	0	2	45	—	.207/.233/.276
2026	20	A+COL	61	.220/.361/.340	1	2	57	—	.170/.279/.264
2026	20	ACOL	334	.271/.373/.423	8	8	81	—	.229/.306/.343
2027PROJ0% MLB	21	MLBCOL	526	.200/.275/.305	9	9	65	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBCOL	156	.219/.293/.355	4	3	73	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	23	MLBCOL	237	.227/.301/.382	7	5	82	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$7M2033Arb-3$9M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

BB%90

Chase%41

wOBA40

Speed40

K%39

Z-Con%37

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 6, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 89%

CompsBo Naylor (age 21) · Parker Meadows (age 21) · Carlos Jimenez (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 320 proj PA

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .273 / .302

PA320

HR5

SB6

K%32

BB%9

ISO104

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 57

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER57

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED47

scouting grade only

DEFENSE48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$7M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$9M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$9M	+$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	16	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	241	214	66	12	2	4	21	66	3	11	4	308	378	439	817	131	428	27	9	362	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	180	151	47	11	3	7	26	32	1	17	3	311	416	563	979	252	351	18	14	422	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	175	159	47	10	5	1	15	56	1	9	5	296	360	440	800	145	451	32	9	356	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	290	252	76	17	1	6	32	70	3	13	6	302	387	448	835	147	395	24	11	371	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	30	29	10	4	0	0	1	8	0	2	0	345	367	483	849	138	476	27	3	375	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+	Spokane Indians	—	61	50	11	3	0	1	11	16	0	2	0	220	361	340	701	120	303	26	18	327	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	334	284	77	15	2	8	44	84	2	8	4	271	373	423	795	151	352	25	13	354	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	21	17	3	0	0	0	3	10	1	0	1	176	333	176	510		429	48	14	264	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	241	220	45	8	1	2	15	75	3	11	4	205	265	277	542	73	291	31	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	180	158	30	7	2	3	19	38	1	17	3	190	281	316	597	127	230	21	11	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	175	165	31	6	3	1	9	81	1	9	5	188	234	279	513	91	359	46	5	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	290	263	65	13	1	5	21	100	3	13	6	247	310	361	671	114	372	34	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	30	29	6	2	0	0	1	12	0	2	0	207	233	276	509	69	366	40	3	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	61	53	9	2	0	1	8	22	0	2	0	170	279	264	543	94	275	36	13	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	334	297	68	12	2	6	31	114	2	8	4	229	306	343	649	114	335	34	9	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	21	18	1	0	0	0	2	14	1	0	1	56	190	56	246		346	67	10	143	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	241	220	45	8	1	2	15	75	3	11	4	205	265	277	542	73	299	31	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	16	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	—	241	214	66	12	2	4	21	66	3	11	4	308	378	439	817	131	428	27	9	362	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	180	158	30	7	2	3	19	38	1	17	3	190	281	316	597	127	227	21	11	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	—	180	151	47	11	3	7	26	32	1	17	3	311	416	563	979	252	351	18	14	422	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	175	165	31	6	3	1	9	81	1	9	5	188	234	279	513	91	361	46	5	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	—	175	159	47	10	5	1	15	56	1	9	5	296	360	440	800	145	451	32	9	356	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	320	292	72	16	1	5	22	112	3	15	6	247	306	360	666	113	381	35	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	320	281	86	21	1	6	33	78	3	15	6	306	385	452	837	146	404	24	10	371	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	416	368	79	15	2	7	41	150	3	10	5	215	299	323	622	109	335	36	10	275	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A RAW	3 teams	—	416	351	91	18	2	9	58	110	3	10	5	259	369	399	768	140	347	26	14	346	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	241	221	45	8	1	2	15	75	3	11	4	204	265	276	541	72	291	31	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	180	158	30	7	2	3	19	38	1	17	3	190	281	316	597	127	230	21	11	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	175	163	31	6	3	1	9	81	1	9	5	190	234	282	516	92	359	46	5	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	320	292	72	16	1	5	22	112	3	15	6	247	306	360	666	113	371	35	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	416	369	79	15	2	7	41	150	3	10	5	214	299	322	621	108	327	36	10	275	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	175	163	31	6	3	1	9	81	1	9	5	190	234	282	516	92	359	46	5	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	320	292	72	16	1	5	22	112	3	15	6	247	306	360	666	113	371	35	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	416	369	79	15	2	7	41	150	3	10	5	214	299	322	621	108	327	36	10	275	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	COL	0%	526	472	95	19	2	9	45	168	4	9	4	200	275	305	580	104	286	32	9	264	65	-22	+0	-1	+6	+11	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	COL	34%	454	409	85	16	2	10	39	142	3	9	3	208	283	329	612	121	288	31	9	277	73	-14	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	COL	48%	490	440	95	18	2	13	43	149	4	9	4	215	290	353	643	138	289	30	9	289	82	-11	+0	-1	+5	+11	0.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	COL	53%	529	473	104	19	2	16	47	158	4	10	4	220	296	371	666	150	291	30	9	298	88	-8	+0	-0	+6	+11	1.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	COL	55%	571	511	114	21	2	18	51	168	4	10	4	224	299	382	681	158	291	29	9	304	92	-6	+0	-0	+6	+12	1.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	COL	56%	588	527	119	22	2	20	52	171	4	10	4	226	301	389	691	163	291	29	9	307	94	-4	+0	-0	+6	+13	1.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	COL	55%	589	527	119	22	2	20	53	172	4	10	4	225	301	387	687	162	291	29	9	306	93	-5	+0	-0	+6	+13	1.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	COL	55%	585	524	116	21	2	19	52	172	4	8	4	223	299	382	681	159	290	29	9	303	92	-6	+0	-1	+6	+13	1.2
2035	29	MLB MLE	COL	53%	576	516	114	21	2	18	51	171	4	7	4	221	296	376	672	155	289	30	9	300	89	-7	-0	-2	+6	+12	0.9
2036	30	MLB MLE	COL	53%	565	506	110	20	2	17	50	170	4	5	4	218	293	369	661	151	287	30	9	296	86	-9	-1	-3	+6	+12	0.6
2037	31	MLB MLE	COL	56%	551	495	106	19	2	16	48	167	3	3	6	214	288	360	647	145	284	30	9	290	82	-12	-2	-3	+6	+12	0.1
2038	32	MLB MLE	COL	59%	533	479	101	18	2	15	46	164	3	4	6	209	282	347	629	138	280	31	9	283	77	-14	-2	-4	+6	+12	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	COL	34%	156	140	31	6	1	4	14	49	1	3	1	219	293	355	647	136	302	31	9	290	73	-5	+0	-0	+2	+3	0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	COL	48%	237	212	48	9	1	7	21	72	2	5	2	227	301	382	682	155	304	30	9	304	82	-5	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	COL	53%	279	250	59	11	2	9	25	83	2	5	2	233	307	401	708	169	305	30	9	314	88	-4	+0	-0	+3	+6	0.5
2031	25	MLB CTX	COL	55%	312	279	66	12	2	11	28	92	2	6	2	237	311	414	725	178	306	29	9	321	92	-3	+0	-0	+3	+7	0.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	COL	56%	327	293	69	12	2	12	29	95	2	6	2	239	313	422	735	183	306	29	9	325	94	-2	+0	-0	+4	+7	0.9
2033	27	MLB CTX	COL	55%	324	290	69	12	2	12	29	95	2	5	2	238	312	419	731	181	306	29	9	323	93	-3	+0	-0	+3	+7	0.8
2034	28	MLB CTX	COL	55%	320	287	68	12	2	12	28	94	2	5	2	236	310	414	724	178	305	29	9	320	92	-3	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.7
2035	29	MLB CTX	COL	53%	307	275	64	11	2	11	27	91	2	4	2	233	307	407	714	174	303	30	9	316	89	-4	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.5
2036	30	MLB CTX	COL	53%	297	267	61	11	1	10	26	89	2	3	2	230	303	399	702	169	301	30	9	312	86	-5	-0	-1	+3	+6	0.3
2037	31	MLB CTX	COL	56%	311	279	62	11	1	10	27	95	2	2	3	226	299	388	687	162	298	31	9	305	82	-7	-1	-2	+3	+7	0.1
2038	32	MLB CTX	COL	59%	315	283	62	11	1	10	27	97	2	2	4	221	292	375	667	154	294	31	9	297	77	-8	-1	-2	+3	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3185	2855	659	118	17	108	281	952	21	46	24	231	304	398	702	167	304	30	9	313	82	-49	-0	-9	+34	+69	4.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	134	24	3	22	57	194	4	9	5	230	303	395	697	165	302	30	9	313	82	-10	-0	-2	+7	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	7683	6898	1497	280	32	205	665	2362	54	153	72	217	291	356	647	139	296	31	9	289	82	-109	-1	-17	+68	+138	8.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	127	24	3	17	56	200	5	13	6	217	291	356	648	139	297	31	9	289	82	-11	-0	-2	+7	+14	0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	4.3	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
#2Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	5.3	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
/162	664	21	2	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#3Alex Gonzalez'94-'06 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,528 PA	8.3	5,528	137	97	232*	290*	379*	+55	+6	8.3	10.0
/162	664	16	12	+6.6	+0.8	1.0	pk7: 12
#4Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#5Billy Urbanski'31-'37 * career totals — 6 seasons, 3,345 PA	5.0	3,345	19	24	237*	300*	353*	+32	+2	7.1	7.1
/162	664	4	5	+6.5	+0.4	1.4	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	5.3	3,506	103	50	218	290	366	+38	-5	7.0	6.5
/162	664	20	10	+7.1	-0.9	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Roy Smalley'48-'58 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,948 PA	4.4	2,948	61	4	220*	288*	369*	+31	-2	3.8	5.0
/162	664	14	1	+7.0	-0.5	0.9	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Derek Bernard (OGILVIE)	21	30→40	40→57	50→47	40	199/273/302	104	286	5	6	32%	9%	65	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Bo Naylor 2021 · A	21	41→46	44→55	51→50	42	206/261/333	127	283	11	7	30%	7%	66	-1.1	204/287/354	150	283	17	13	32%	10%	82	-0.0	218/311/396	178	274	21	12	27%	11%	100	+1.0
✕Parker Meadows 2021 · A	21	40→48	41→55	46→55	42	198/255/291	92	273	9	9	30%	7%	54	-2.0	206/267/338	132	276	14	13	29%	7%	70	-0.8	229/297/399	170	285	18	21	26%	8%	94	+0.9
✕Carlos Jimenez 2024 · A	21	39→44	40→50	52→55	44	186/271/278	93	294	7	15	36%	9%	59	-1.7	222/298/356	134	324	13	17	33%	9%	86	+0.3	223/303/376	153	308	17	18	31%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2024 · A	21	40	38→45	48→45	46	192/271/267	75	284	6	7	32%	9%	55	-1.9	191/263/273	82	291	6	4	33%	8%	53	-2.1	178/256/266	88	258	7	2	31%	9%	47	-1.0
✕Gavin Conticello 2024 · A	21	36→46	45	48→50	40	185/254/310	126	264	13	8	34%	7%	59	-1.6	219/279/344	125	300	11	8	29%	7%	76	-0.4	230/290/358	128	308	12	7	28%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Victor Mesa Jr. 2024 · AA	22	43→46	43→55	51→50	42	213/264/326	114	277	10	11	27%	6%	66	-1.1	230/284/377	147	283	17	11	24%	7%	85	+0.2	238/297/408	169	279	21	11	23%	7%	95	+0.5
●Carter Jensen 2024 · A	21	38→48	43→55	50	54	186/291/300	114	264	10	8	31%	13%	72	-0.7	223/305/385	162	297	18	9	29%	10%	95	+1.0	233/312/421	188	299	22	7	28%	10%	105	+1.6
✕Addison Barger 2021 · A	21	41→49	39→55	49→45	44	198/268/289	90	270	6	5	28%	7%	59	-1.6	217/280/371	154	321	18	7	36%	7%	83	+0.1	222/291/386	164	273	18	6	25%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Daniel Schneemann 2019 · A	22	37→47	40→50	50	43	184/249/278	93	269	7	6	33%	8%	49	-2.4	210/269/296	86	292	7	9	28%	7%	61	-1.5	224/304/369	145	297	14	13	28%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Izaac Pacheco 2024 · A	21	37→40	43→50	46→45	39	186/244/295	109	281	11	6	36%	7%	51	-2.2	192/261/331	139	309	16	5	40%	8%	67	-1.1	185/263/344	159	294	20	3	41%	9%	69	-0.6
✕Isan Díaz 2017 · A	21	43	47→55	45	43	212/278/355	143	302	14	8	33%	8%	78	-0.3	207/279/349	142	299	15	8	34%	8%	78	-0.3	212/290/379	167	275	21	5	30%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Joe Mack 2024 · A	21	41→44	39→55	45	43	198/267/273	75	282	8	2	31%	8%	55	-1.9	218/280/363	145	290	18	5	30%	7%	81	-0.1	220/283/384	165	281	22	4	29%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2024 · A	21	38→44	41→50	52→50	43	182/258/286	104	279	7	9	35%	8%	55	-1.9	220/276/370	150	298	17	10	31%	6%	81	-0.1	226/279/379	153	297	20	9	30%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Angel Ortiz 2024 · A	21	40→45	39→50	47→45	40	197/244/283	86	268	6	8	28%	6%	48	-2.5	228/285/354	126	301	11	6	26%	7%	80	-0.1	227/286/370	143	294	13	8	26%	7%	82	+0.0
●Ryan Schimpf 2011 · A	23	38→41	43→60	52→45	38	188/252/310	122	285	9	10	36%	6%	58	-1.7	196/271/353	157	270	17	6	32%	8%	76	-0.4	203/284/421	218	238	27	2	28%	8%	96	+0.8
✕Agustín Ramírez 2023 · A	21	43→48	45→55	51→55	44	213/272/340	128	284	12	11	29%	7%	72	-0.7	233/294/390	157	279	18	13	23%	7%	93	+0.8	236/301/405	169	279	19	20	22%	7%	97	+1.1
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→50	51→45	39	201/262/292	91	296	7	7	33%	6%	57	-1.8	195/270/308	113	293	13	8	36%	7%	65	-1.2	180/256/294	114	253	15	7	34%	7%	55	-0.8
✕Drew Robinson 2014 · A	22	44→43	43→55	49→50	46	211/294/330	119	311	10	8	33%	9%	78	-0.3	196/273/340	144	288	15	11	35%	9%	73	-0.6	211/288/384	173	313	19	12	36%	9%	85	+0.2
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→45	49→50	40	186/254/299	114	273	12	9	35%	7%	57	-1.8	197/278/292	95	346	7	8	41%	8%	64	-1.3	149/272/225	76	351	3	4	50%	12%	46	-0.6
✕Jason Martin 2017 · A	21	43→52	47→60	49→50	45	219/279/359	140	286	14	13	28%	8%	79	-0.2	231/278/376	145	308	14	12	28%	6%	82	+0.0	226/292/414	187	279	24	8	28%	8%	94	+0.6

Derek Bernard

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps