Luke Jackson — OGILVIE

Luke Jackson P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

K%23.1%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%13.8%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	15	10	29	121	38	10	2	67%	2.0	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	2.3%	3.07	3.85	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	15	10	29	121	38	10	2	67%	2.0	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	2.3%	3.07	3.85	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	TB	2	1	3	10	7	1	0	50%	1.5	70.0%	10.0%	60.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.54	—
2026	22	A RAW	TB	13	9	26	111	31	9	2	69%	2.0	27.9%	8.1%	19.8%	1.8%	3.42	2.76	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TB	5	5	30	126	30	11	4	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.8%	15.0%	2.9%	4.26	4.21	+0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	TB	3	3	15	63	15	6	2	100%	5.0	23.8%	8.8%	15.0%	2.9%	4.26	4.21	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	15	62	15	5	2	100%	4.9	23.8%	8.8%	15.0%	2.9%	4.26	3.83	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	205	68	27	100%	5.3	23.8%	8.8%	15.0%	2.9%	4.26	3.83	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		15	10	29	121	25	12	3	67%	2.0	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	2.3%	3.07	3.85	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	68	200	825	170	79	19	67%	2.0	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	2.3%	3.07	3.85	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Jackson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	23.1%	9.3%	3.0%	—	4.21	23.8%	15.0%	30	-0.15	—	—	—
Caleb Sampen R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	81
Clarke Schmidt R 2018 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	23.1%	8.5%	2.4%	.324	3.26	21.3%	13.1%	108	-0.27	2.77	537	81
Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	25.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.85	3.39	242	80
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	77
Jared Ruxer R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	17.3%	10.6%	2.1%	.333	4.29	14.9%	7.5%	240	+0.13	3.39	270	77
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	74
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.13	24.0%	11.4%	56	+0.78	2.93	103	74
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	74
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	73
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	73
Duque Hebbert R 2023 · 3.18 FIP	21	SP-	3.18	17.8%	4.8%	1.8%	.324	4.54	13.4%	6.1%	130	+1.36	3.18	168	72
Yon Castro R 2021 · 3.20 FIP	22	SW	3.20	20.5%	8.5%	1.4%	.297	4.52	19.5%	8.8%	167	+1.32	3.20	274	72
Pedro Reyes R 2023 · 4.17 FIP	20	SP-	4.17	18.0%	9.2%	2.6%	.159	4.92	11.0%	0.5%	90	+0.75	2.87	180	72
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	72
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	682	72
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	71
Tyler Owens R 2023 · 3.92 FIP	22	SP-	3.92	18.4%	8.6%	2.3%	.318	4.37	19.2%	9.6%	128	+0.45	3.36	269	71
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	71
Clay Chandler R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	23	SP-	4.97	18.3%	6.0%	4.8%	.319	4.89	14.8%	8.8%	293	-0.08	4.49	328	70
Jorge Juan R 2021 · 3.51 FIP	22	SP-	3.51	28.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.310	4.85	23.0%	4.7%	103	+1.34	3.48	238	70