Pedro Reyes — OGILVIE

Pedro Reyes P FCL Phillies

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.6 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.06

FIP5.06

K%16.6%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%5.7%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	13	10	46	189	32	15	2	77%	3.5	11.5%	9.9%	1.6%	1.7%	2.93	4.33	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	13	10	46	189	32	15	2	77%	3.5	16.9%	7.9%	9.0%	1.1%	2.93	3.25	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	7	6	26	109	21	6	0	86%	3.8	13.1%	6.9%	6.2%	0.0%	1.37	2.87	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	7	6	26	109	21	6	0	86%	3.8	19.3%	5.5%	13.8%	0.0%	1.37	2.19	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	8	6	18	68	18	5	1	75%	2.2	18.0%	9.2%	8.8%	2.6%	1.50	4.17	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	8	6	18	68	18	5	1	75%	2.2	18.0%	9.2%	8.8%	2.6%	1.50	4.17	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	8	6	18	68	18	5	1	75%	2.2	26.5%	7.4%	19.1%	1.5%	1.50	2.66	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	9	65	276	45	21	6	56%	4.0	11.4%	9.3%	2.2%	3.2%	2.92	5.05	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	9	65	276	45	21	6	56%	4.0	11.4%	9.3%	2.2%	3.2%	2.92	5.05	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	9	65	276	45	21	6	56%	4.0	16.3%	7.6%	8.7%	2.2%	2.92	3.89	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	12	2	25	131	19	14	1	17%	2.1	9.9%	13.4%	-3.5%	1.2%	7.82	4.60	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	12	2	25	131	19	14	1	17%	2.1	9.9%	13.4%	-3.5%	1.2%	7.82	4.60	—
2025	22	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	12	2	25	131	19	14	1	17%	2.1	14.5%	10.7%	3.8%	0.8%	7.82	3.77	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	PHI	1	1	2	8	1	1	0	100%	2.0	16.6%	10.9%	5.7%	2.9%	5.06	5.06	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	60	252	47	25	7	100%	6.0	18.5%	10.1%	8.4%	2.9%	4.87	4.79	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	60	255	50	25	7	100%	6.0	19.7%	9.6%	10.0%	2.9%	4.71	4.63	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	60	255	52	24	7	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.6%	10.7%	2.9%	4.62	4.57	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	60	251	51	24	7	100%	6.0	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	3.0%	4.61	4.60	+0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	PHI	4	4	26	110	20	11	3	100%	6.5	18.5%	10.1%	8.4%	3.1%	4.99	4.91	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	40	169	33	16	5	100%	5.7	19.7%	9.6%	10.0%	3.1%	4.83	4.75	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	PHI	8	8	48	203	41	19	6	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.6%	10.7%	3.1%	4.74	4.69	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	PHI	8	8	51	215	44	21	7	100%	6.4	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	3.2%	4.73	4.72	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		28	28	164	693	138	67	22	100%	5.9	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	3.1%	4.79	4.37	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	168	82	27	100%	5.9	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	3.1%	4.79	4.37	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		56	33	180	773	93	76	15	59%	3.2	12.0%	9.8%	2.2%	2.0%	3.24	4.41	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	37	200	857	103	84	17	59%	3.2	12.0%	9.8%	2.2%	2.0%	3.24	4.41	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pedro Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.06	16.6%	10.9%	2.9%	—	4.66	19.5%	9.7%	180	-0.40	—	—	—
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	87
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	83
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	81
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	81
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	81
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	80
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	80
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	79
Mitchell Traver R 2017 · 5.56 FIP	23	SP-	5.56	11.9%	9.7%	4.1%	.392	5.21	14.3%	3.7%	82	-0.35	5.21	104	79
Keagan Gillies R 2022 · 5.68 FIP	24	SP-	5.68	17.2%	11.3%	4.7%	.370	3.54	23.4%	13.8%	142	-2.14	2.93	176	78
Michael Santos R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	17.4%	9.1%	2.9%	.289	4.87	15.0%	6.4%	49	+0.46	2.26	276	78
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	78
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	78
Greyfer Eregua R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP-	4.87	18.3%	9.3%	3.9%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	126	78
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	78
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	77
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	77
Jheyson Caraballo R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	21	SW	5.25	11.9%	10.6%	3.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	101	77
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	77
Tanner Dodson R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SW	5.04	13.6%	10.8%	3.1%	.433	4.48	17.7%	2.8%	91	-0.56	3.87	277	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	52	19.4%	9.8%	1.13	4.73
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19