Jackson Humphries

P Lake County Captains

Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 211 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.5 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #939MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP45ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	A+CLE	26	26	97	5.12	5.43	22.6%	20.2%	—	K 17.4% · BB 23.2% · FIP 6.37
2026	22	A+CLE	21	20	72	5.47	3.92	31.6%	16.6%	—	K 24.4% · BB 19.1% · FIP 5.11
2027PROJ	23	MLBCLE	16	16	90	5.84	5.84	22.1%	20.0%	-0.9
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCLE	9	9	51	5.52	5.41	22.9%	17.2%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCLE	16	16	91	5.26	5.14	23.3%	15.5%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$0.6M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control40Command30FB velo47

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 84%

CompsDoug Nikhazy (age 23) · Samy Natera Jr. (age 23) · Brooks Gosswein (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128136vR 144

ERA5.84

FIP5.84

K%22.1%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%2.1%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5055

CTRL—40

CMD2030

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	57	255	72	29	5	93%	3.8	19.8%	14.0%	5.8%	2.3%	5.49	4.48	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	57	255	72	29	5	93%	3.8	28.2%	11.4%	16.9%	2.0%	5.49	3.24	—
2024	20	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	23	23	79	333	97	41	12	100%	3.4	21.6%	14.5%	7.0%	5.6%	4.56	6.17	—
2024	20	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	23	23	79	333	97	41	12	100%	3.4	21.6%	14.5%	7.0%	5.6%	4.56	6.17	—
2024	20	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	23	23	79	333	97	41	12	100%	3.4	29.1%	12.3%	16.8%	3.6%	4.56	4.18	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	26	26	97	451	102	91	12	100%	3.7	17.4%	23.2%	-5.8%	3.3%	5.12	6.37	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	26	26	97	451	102	91	12	100%	3.7	17.4%	23.2%	-5.8%	3.3%	5.12	6.37	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	26	26	97	451	102	91	12	100%	3.7	22.6%	20.2%	2.4%	2.7%	5.12	5.43	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	21	20	72	332	105	55	8	95%	3.4	24.4%	19.1%	5.3%	3.0%	5.47	5.11	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	21	20	72	332	105	55	8	95%	3.4	24.4%	19.1%	5.3%	3.0%	5.47	5.11	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	21	20	72	332	105	55	8	95%	3.4	31.6%	16.6%	15.1%	2.4%	5.47	3.92	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CLE	16	16	90	380	84	76	12	100%	5.6	22.1%	20.0%	2.1%	3.1%	5.84	5.84	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	21	21	118	499	114	86	15	100%	5.6	22.9%	17.2%	5.6%	3.1%	5.52	5.41	-0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	24	24	138	581	135	90	18	100%	5.7	23.3%	15.5%	7.8%	3.0%	5.26	5.14	-0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	25	25	150	632	148	95	19	100%	6.0	23.4%	15.1%	8.4%	3.0%	5.13	5.07	-0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	25	25	148	623	146	93	19	100%	5.9	23.4%	14.9%	8.4%	3.1%	5.10	5.09	-0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	24	24	143	604	141	91	19	100%	6.0	23.3%	15.1%	8.2%	3.2%	5.14	5.17	-0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	23	23	137	577	133	88	19	100%	5.9	23.0%	15.3%	7.7%	3.3%	5.24	5.31	-0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	21	21	128	543	123	85	19	100%	6.1	22.7%	15.6%	7.1%	3.5%	5.39	5.48	-0.8
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	51	215	49	37	7	100%	5.7	22.9%	17.2%	5.6%	3.0%	5.52	5.41	-0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	16	16	91	384	89	60	12	100%	5.7	23.3%	15.5%	7.8%	3.0%	5.26	5.14	-0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	20	20	119	502	118	76	15	100%	6.0	23.4%	15.1%	8.4%	3.0%	5.13	5.07	-0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	21	21	126	532	124	80	16	100%	6.0	23.4%	14.9%	8.4%	3.1%	5.10	5.09	-0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	21	21	127	536	125	81	17	100%	6.0	23.3%	15.1%	8.2%	3.2%	5.14	5.17	-0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	21	21	124	524	121	80	17	100%	5.9	23.0%	15.3%	7.7%	3.3%	5.24	5.31	-0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	20	20	118	498	113	78	18	100%	5.9	22.7%	15.6%	7.1%	3.5%	5.39	5.48	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		127	127	757	3196	740	491	102	100%	6.0	23.2%	15.4%	7.8%	3.2%	5.22	4.84	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	196	130	27	100%	6.0	23.2%	15.4%	7.8%	3.2%	5.22	4.84	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		85	83	305	1371	282	252	49	98%	3.6	20.5%	18.4%	2.2%	3.6%	5.13	5.66	-3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	54	200	898	184	165	32	98%	3.6	20.5%	18.4%	2.2%	3.6%	5.13	5.66	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Humphries (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.84	22.1%	20.0%	3.1%	—	5.19	23.2%	7.4%	406	-0.65	—	—	—
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.71	20.2%	9.3%	258	-0.68	4.12	463	84
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	77
Brooks Gosswein L 2022 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP	5.13	14.7%	14.8%	2.5%	.328	5.61	15.2%	-2.7%	66	+0.48	5.13	165	75
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	75
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	74
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	73
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	73
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	73
Lucas Gordon L 2024 · 5.61 FIP	22	SP	5.61	16.3%	15.7%	3.5%	.212	5.08	20.0%	8.1%	225	-0.53	4.44	338	72
Frank Mozzicato L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	21	SP	5.34	16.4%	16.7%	2.8%	.238	6.33	18.8%	-2.2%	165	+0.99	5.00	428	71
John Doxakis L 2022 · 5.12 FIP	23	SP	5.12	18.2%	11.9%	3.8%	.252	4.76	17.8%	4.4%	113	-0.36	3.19	332	71
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	71
Cameron Bishop L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	23	SP	4.65	16.6%	13.9%	2.2%	.316	3.42	23.8%	11.5%	66	-1.23	2.86	305	70
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	70
Jhordany Mezquita L 2021 · 5.16 FIP	23	SP-	5.16	17.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.321	5.10	22.4%	14.0%	14	-0.06	3.02	223	70
Drew Gray L 2024 · 4.98 FIP	21	SP	4.98	21.3%	23.9%	1.2%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	108	69
Connor O'Halloran L 2024 · 5.09 FIP	21	SP	5.09	17.2%	12.3%	3.4%	.287	6.36	14.3%	-6.0%	32	+1.27	5.09	136	67
Garrett Olson L 2007 · 5.11 FIP	23	SP	5.11	17.3%	16.7%	2.5%	.369	5.17	14.1%	4.6%	251	+0.06	4.57	283	67
Jaylen Nowlin L 2024 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP-	5.15	18.7%	12.6%	3.7%	.299	4.77	21.7%	3.2%	100	-0.38	3.45	372	67
Jagger Haynes L 2024 · 5.30 FIP	21	SP	5.30	18.5%	16.0%	3.2%	.278	4.83	17.3%	4.5%	238	-0.47	4.25	374	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	131	23.1%	15.9%	1.23	5.29
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Emmett O'Neill ('43-'46, -2 WAR*)	1.8	119	19.1%*	15.5%*	0.99*	5.94*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Ferdie Schupp ('13-'22, 4 WAR*)	5.3	132	27.9%*	13.2%*	1.25*	4.83*
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44