Drew Gray — OGILVIE

Drew Gray P ACL Cubs

Age 24 LHP 6'3" / 190 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2029

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 56 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119127vR 135

ERA5.37

FIP5.37

K%22.5%

BB%17.3%

K-BB%5.2%

ROS IP56

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	2	2	4	16	9	1	0	100%	2.0	56.2%	6.2%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.86	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	2	2	4	16	9	1	0	100%	2.0	56.2%	6.2%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.65	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	34	154	56	29	0	100%	2.4	26.6%	21.7%	4.9%	0.0%	4.50	3.60	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	34	154	56	29	0	100%	2.4	36.4%	18.8%	17.5%	0.0%	4.50	2.36	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	22	22	80	351	97	73	3	100%	3.6	21.3%	23.9%	-2.6%	1.2%	4.39	4.98	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	22	22	80	351	97	73	3	100%	3.6	21.3%	23.9%	-2.6%	1.2%	4.39	4.98	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	22	22	80	351	97	73	3	100%	3.6	27.6%	20.8%	6.8%	0.9%	4.39	3.90	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	9	43	14	8	1	100%	3.1	32.6%	18.6%	14.0%	2.3%	4.82	3.98	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	9	43	14	8	1	100%	3.1	32.6%	18.6%	14.0%	2.3%	4.82	3.98	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	9	43	14	8	1	100%	3.1	32.6%	18.6%	14.0%	2.3%	4.82	4.06	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CHC	10	10	56	236	53	41	7	100%	5.6	22.5%	17.3%	5.2%	2.9%	5.37	5.37	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	57	239	55	36	7	100%	5.7	23.0%	14.9%	8.1%	2.9%	5.12	5.02	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	CHC	9	9	57	239	56	35	7	100%	6.3	23.2%	14.5%	8.8%	2.9%	5.00	4.95	-0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	CHC	9	9	56	236	55	34	7	100%	6.2	23.2%	14.3%	8.9%	3.0%	4.96	4.96	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	CHC	4	4	24	101	23	15	3	100%	6.0	23.0%	14.9%	8.1%	2.9%	5.12	5.02	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	38	160	37	23	5	100%	6.3	23.2%	14.5%	8.8%	2.9%	5.00	4.95	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	43	182	42	26	5	100%	6.1	23.2%	14.3%	8.9%	3.0%	4.96	4.96	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	18	105	443	103	64	13	100%	5.8	23.2%	14.5%	8.7%	2.9%	5.01	4.59	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	196	122	25	100%	6.0	23.2%	14.5%	8.7%	2.9%	5.01	4.59	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		41	41	127	564	139	126	5	100%	3.1	24.6%	22.4%	2.2%	0.9%	4.31	4.36	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	64	200	886	218	199	8	100%	3.1	24.6%	22.4%	2.2%	0.9%	4.31	4.36	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew Gray (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.37	22.5%	17.3%	2.9%	—	4.98	23.1%	8.6%	169	-0.39	—	—	—
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	84
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	79
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	76
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	74
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	74
Andrew Sears L 2024 · 4.25 FIP	21	SP	4.25	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.06	19.9%	11.0%	177	-0.19	3.71	266	72
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	71
Kevin Smith L 2021 · 5.54 FIP	24	SP	5.54	23.8%	16.5%	4.3%	.296	6.20	17.5%	1.3%	48	+0.66	3.26	248	70
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	70
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	70
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	70
Jake Eder L 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP	5.27	22.1%	15.5%	3.8%	.344	4.91	18.9%	9.3%	217	-0.36	2.73	335	68
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	68
Noah Dean L 2024 · 4.41 FIP	23	SP-	4.41	25.4%	18.4%	2.0%	.216	5.93	21.1%	1.3%	74	+1.52	4.41	217	68
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	67
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	66
Kyle Carr L 2024 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP	4.24	16.2%	14.0%	1.3%	.310	4.47	18.6%	7.1%	223	+0.23	4.19	327	66
Grant Wolfram L 2021 · 5.44 FIP	24	SP-	5.44	25.2%	12.9%	5.1%	.327	3.92	23.1%	11.0%	176	-1.52	2.36	423	65
Andy Oliver L 2010 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP	4.66	17.6%	10.8%	3.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	187	64
Marc Rzepczynski L 2010 · 4.23 FIP	24	SP	4.23	19.9%	10.1%	2.8%	.332	3.54	21.2%	13.0%	139	-0.69	2.43	491	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	56	23.0%	15.2%	1.13	5.11
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30