Drew Gray
P
ACL Cubs
+0.3
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.2 · 2030
ERA4.74
FIP4.74
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.9%
BB%13.4%
K-BB%9.5%
IP80
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2030
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 2 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 9 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 14 | 14 | 34 | 154 | 56 | 29 | 0 | 26.6% | 21.7% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 3.60 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 22 | 22 | 80 | 351 | 97 | 73 | 3 | 21.3% | 23.9% | 1.1% | 4.39 | 4.96 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 3 | 3 | 9 | 43 | 14 | 8 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.82 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 80 | 338 | 77 | 45 | 9 | 22.9% | 13.4% | 2.7% | 4.74 | 4.74 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 82 | 346 | 81 | 41 | 9 | 23.4% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.50 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 17 | 95 | 401 | 95 | 44 | 11 | 23.7% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.36 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 102 | 431 | 102 | 46 | 12 | 23.8% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.33 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 105 | 444 | 106 | 47 | 12 | 23.8% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.33 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 106 | 446 | 106 | 47 | 12 | 23.7% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 103 | 436 | 103 | 47 | 12 | 23.6% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.41 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 99 | 46 | 12 | 23.4% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.47 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 18 | 18 | 97 | 408 | 94 | 45 | 12 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.54 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 17 | 93 | 391 | 90 | 43 | 12 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.63 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 88 | 374 | 84 | 42 | 12 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.73 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 84 | 355 | 79 | 41 | 12 | 22.2% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.84 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 79 | 335 | 80 | 37 | 11 | 23.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.69 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 74 | 313 | 73 | 35 | 11 | 23.4% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.82 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 41 | 41 | 127 | 564 | 139 | 126 | 5 | 24.6% | 22.4% | 0.9% | 4.31 | 4.35 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 64 | 200 | 886 | 218 | 198 | 8 | 24.6% | 22.4% | 0.9% | 4.31 | 4.35 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drew Gray (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 22.9% | 13.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.39 | 23.6% | 12.6% | 279 | -0.35 | — | — | — |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.85 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 102 | -0.55 | 3.85 | 191 | 94 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.86 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.17 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.69 | 4.10 | 256 | 92 |
| Seth Lonsway L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 21.2% | 14.4% | 2.3% | .304 | 4.18 | 16.0% | 4.2% | 319 | -0.22 | 3.35 | 414 | 91 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .313 | 4.46 | 17.7% | 2.8% | 117 | -0.05 | 4.21 | 212 | 90 |
| Will Johnston L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.96 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.18 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 70 | +0.22 | 3.96 | 162 | 90 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | .294 | 3.42 | 28.3% | 12.6% | 63 | -1.72 | 1.94 | 146 | 89 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 87 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 87 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.06 | 20.5% | 13.9% | 1.7% | .275 | 3.73 | 20.9% | 7.7% | 116 | -0.33 | 2.85 | 221 | 87 |
| Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.20 | 24.3% | 17.7% | 12 | -1.10 | 3.20 | 117 | 86 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.0% | .269 | 8.07 | 11.6% | 1.8% | 13 | +3.67 | 4.40 | 233 | 85 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.27 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.02 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.75 | 4.27 | 501 | 85 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 85 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 85 |
| Sam Garcia L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 84 |
| Ismael Guillón L 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.36 | 24.9% | 12.5% | 3.2% | .206 | 4.44 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 100 | +0.08 | 4.35 | 193 | 84 |
| Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 84 |
| Cole Ragans L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.12 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.32 | 26.8% | 17.4% | 445 | -1.80 | 2.44 | 604 | 83 |
| Pete Hansen L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 266 | -0.38 | 3.75 | 378 | 83 |
| Damon Jones L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.12 | 18.8% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 3.83 | 25.8% | 10.9% | 156 | -0.29 | 3.69 | 269 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2032 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.0 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2033 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.9 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.8 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $11M | $42M | +$31M | ||