Drew Gray
P
ACL Cubs
Age 23
LHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.7 · 2028
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 56 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108117vR 126
ERA4.75
FIP4.75
K%22.9%
BB%13.4%
K-BB%9.5%
ROS IP56
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 2 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 56.2% | 6.2% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.86 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 2 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 56.2% | 6.2% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.65 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 34 | 154 | 56 | 29 | 0 | 100% | 2.4 | 26.6% | 21.7% | 4.9% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 3.60 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 34 | 154 | 56 | 29 | 0 | 100% | 2.4 | 36.4% | 18.8% | 17.5% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 2.36 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 22 | 22 | 80 | 351 | 97 | 73 | 3 | 100% | 3.6 | 21.3% | 23.9% | -2.6% | 1.3% | 4.39 | 5.05 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 22 | 22 | 80 | 351 | 97 | 73 | 3 | 100% | 3.6 | 27.6% | 20.8% | 6.8% | 0.9% | 4.39 | 3.90 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 9 | 43 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 100% | 3.1 | 32.6% | 18.6% | 14.0% | 2.3% | 4.82 | 3.98 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 9 | 43 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 100% | 3.1 | 32.6% | 18.6% | 14.0% | 2.3% | 4.82 | 4.06 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | CHC | 10 | 10 | 56 | 236 | 54 | 32 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.9% | 13.4% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CHC | 10 | 10 | 57 | 242 | 57 | 29 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.5% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 59 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.9% | 11.0% | 12.9% | 2.7% | 4.45 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 59 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.1% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 10 | 10 | 57 | 242 | 58 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 9 | 9 | 56 | 234 | 56 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.9% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 53 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.7% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 50 | 210 | 49 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.3% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 46 | 196 | 45 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.9% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CHC | 4 | 4 | 25 | 106 | 25 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.5% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.61 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 38 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.9% | 11.0% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 47 | 21 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.1% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 50 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 49 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.9% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 48 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.7% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 45 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.3% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 42 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.9% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 3.5% | 4.88 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 58 | 58 | 344 | 1454 | 345 | 164 | 44 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.7% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.19 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 200 | 95 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.7% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 41 | 41 | 127 | 564 | 139 | 126 | 6 | 100% | 3.1 | 24.6% | 22.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 4.31 | 4.40 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 64 | 200 | 886 | 218 | 199 | 9 | 100% | 3.1 | 24.6% | 22.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 4.31 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drew Gray (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.75 | 22.9% | 13.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.41 | 23.8% | 12.5% | 174 | -0.34 | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.67 | 19.6% | 14.6% | 2.5% | .266 | 3.89 | 20.3% | 3.7% | 33 | -0.78 | 2.81 | 146 | 86 |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.80 | 21.8% | 14.0% | 1.4% | .335 | 3.81 | 18.5% | 11.0% | 84 | +0.01 | 3.80 | 152 | 86 |
| Kash Mayfield L 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.36 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 109 | 81 |
| Caden Grice L 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.23 | 23.1% | 15.7% | 2.0% | .282 | 5.28 | 17.3% | 1.8% | 55 | +1.05 | 4.23 | 105 | 80 |
| Evan Lee L 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.48 | 21.0% | 2.7% | 52 | +0.48 | 3.84 | 129 | 79 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.17 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | .294 | 3.68 | 29.8% | 14.8% | 108 | -1.49 | 1.94 | 191 | 79 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 78 |
| Brent Headrick L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.52 | 22.9% | 14.0% | 2.9% | .383 | 4.63 | 24.2% | 16.7% | 227 | +0.11 | 2.40 | 382 | 78 |
| Hogan Harris L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.73 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 1.9% | .235 | 3.64 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.09 | 3.14 | 473 | 78 |
| Brent Killam L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.35 | 29.1% | 14.5% | 3.4% | .284 | 7.12 | 18.4% | 9.6% | 80 | +2.77 | 4.35 | 121 | 78 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 76 |
| Luis De León L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 22.6% | 13.9% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 316 | 76 |
| Ryan Webb L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.91 | 22.0% | 15.4% | 1.3% | .398 | 3.71 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 345 | -0.20 | 3.28 | 443 | 76 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.86 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.28 | 3.86 | 189 | 76 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.63 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .249 | 4.99 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 48 | +1.36 | 3.10 | 196 | 76 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 76 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.4% | .298 | 5.19 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.95 | 4.24 | 501 | 76 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .360 | 5.95 | 16.3% | -2.8% | 144 | +1.15 | 4.80 | 223 | 75 |
| Liam Sullivan L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.38 | 23.0% | 12.3% | 3.0% | .273 | 5.49 | 20.1% | 4.3% | 55 | +1.11 | 4.38 | 121 | 75 |
| Cole Ragans L 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.15 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.38 | 26.8% | 17.4% | 445 | -1.77 | 2.46 | 623 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 55 | 23.6% | 11.6% | 1.14 | 4.55 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Brad Boxberger ('23) | 8 | 43 | 27.1% | 11.7% | 1.17 | 3.86 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |