Jorge Marcheco — OGILVIE

Jorge Marcheco P Midland RockHounds

+0.3 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 197 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2029

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.3%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%11.5%

IP83

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.1peak

2029

K†5050

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Angels	3	3	9	28	20	0	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
2022	19	A	Inland Empire 66ers	14	11	62	256	90	15	4	25.0%	7.2%	2.2%	3.48	3.12	+1.3
2023	20	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	22	22	122	485	124	26	15	19.1%	6.3%	4.2%	3.55	4.60	+1.0
2024	21	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	20	19	82	364	70	31	9	14.8%	9.8%	3.3%	5.07	4.92	+0.2
2025	22	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	27	12	85	349	84	23	14	18.6%	8.0%	5.1%	4.36	5.34	-0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	Midland RockHounds	1	0	2	10	2	1	0	—	—	—	16.20	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	OAK	15	15	83	350	71	31	12	20.3%	8.7%	3.5%	4.78	4.78	+0.3
2026 Total	23	MLB	OAK	—	—	85	360	73	32	12	20.3%	8.8%	3.4%	5.01	4.69	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	OAK	18	18	101	426	90	36	14	21.1%	8.4%	3.4%	4.66	4.62	+0.8
2028	25	MLB	OAK	21	21	114	483	104	40	16	21.5%	8.2%	3.3%	4.58	4.54	+1.0
2029	26	MLB	OAK	22	22	121	512	111	42	17	21.8%	8.1%	3.3%	4.53	4.50	+1.1
2030	27	MLB	OAK	23	23	124	525	114	43	18	21.8%	8.2%	3.3%	4.51	4.50	+1.1
2031	28	MLB	OAK	23	23	124	526	114	43	18	21.7%	8.2%	3.4%	4.52	4.53	+1.1
2032	29	MLB	OAK	22	22	122	514	111	43	18	21.6%	8.3%	3.4%	4.55	4.58	+1.0
2033	30	MLB	OAK	21	21	118	498	107	42	17	21.4%	8.4%	3.5%	4.60	4.64	+0.9
2034	31	MLB	OAK	21	21	114	481	102	41	17	21.2%	8.5%	3.5%	4.67	4.71	+0.8
2035	32	MLB	OAK	20	20	109	461	96	40	17	20.9%	8.7%	3.6%	4.75	4.80	+0.6
2036	33	MLB	OAK	19	19	104	441	91	39	16	20.6%	8.8%	3.7%	4.84	4.90	+0.5
2037	34	MLB	OAK	18	18	99	419	85	38	16	20.2%	9.0%	3.8%	4.94	5.01	+0.3
2038	35	MLB	OAK	17	17	94	395	78	37	15	19.9%	9.3%	3.9%	5.05	5.13	+0.1
2039	36	MLB	OAK	16	16	87	369	72	35	15	19.4%	9.5%	4.0%	5.18	5.26	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			87	67	361	1492	298	114	56	19.9%	7.6%	3.8%	4.04	4.44	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—			48	37	200	827	165	63	31	19.9%	7.6%	3.8%	4.04	4.44	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jorge Marcheco (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	20.3%	8.7%	3.5%	—	4.55	21.5%	13.3%	337	-0.23	—	—	—
Blake Beers R 2027 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.96	17.7%	8.5%	323	+0.35	4.41	416	94
Kaleb Fontenot R 2027 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	20.7%	8.6%	3.7%	.264	3.71	14.7%	5.2%	69	-0.78	3.71	155	93
Seth Shuman R 2026 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.45	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.45	3.67	306	92
Colin Peluse R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP-	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.61	15.0%	6.8%	236	+1.41	3.05	395	91
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	23	SP-	4.38	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	-0.01	3.50	368	91
Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.02	10.6%	4.0%	101	-0.21	4.02	199	91
Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	17.8%	9.3%	2.8%	.300	3.77	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.53	3.77	107	90
Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP-	4.34	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.98	20.4%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.84	494	90
James Hicks R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	7.2%	3.4%	.338	4.35	17.5%	10.4%	61	+0.12	3.67	167	89
Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	89
Luis Santos R 2027 · 4.51 FIP	24	SP-	4.51	17.0%	6.5%	3.7%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.39	3.50	472	89
Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP-	4.66	16.5%	9.4%	3.2%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.66	4.63	340	88
Derek True R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	23	SP-	4.91	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.96	16.6%	4.6%	60	+0.05	4.91	157	88
Nick Dean R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.99	21.6%	13.8%	65	+0.16	3.83	155	88
Tate Scioneaux R 2026 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP-	3.70	19.8%	7.9%	2.3%	.236	4.02	19.6%	13.5%	184	+0.32	3.11	321	88
Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.44	18.2%	7.0%	78	+0.55	3.89	183	88
Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.96	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.49	2.91	175	88
Grant Rogers R 2026 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP-	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	3.89	14.2%	7.6%	150	-0.19	3.89	262	88
Thomas Farr R 2026 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	18.0%	9.8%	4.1%	.340	5.31	12.4%	2.9%	280	+0.27	5.04	380	88
Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	3.95	21.4%	10.8%	118	-0.35	2.58	199	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.1	$10M	+$9M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.1	$10M	+$9M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.1	$10M	+$9M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.0	$10M	+$8M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+0.9	$4M	+$1M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+0.8	$4M	+$0.6M
Totals		$11M		$48M	+$37M