Jorge Marcheco — OGILVIE

Jorge Marcheco P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 197 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION24 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 113

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%17.2%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP62

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Angels	3	3	9	28	20	0	0	100%	3.0	71.4%	0.0%	71.4%	0.0%	0.00	-2.93	—
2021	18	ROK	DSL Angels	3	3	9	28	20	0	0	100%	3.0	71.4%	0.0%	71.4%	0.0%	0.00	-1.34	—
2022	19	MIX	2 levels	14	11	62	256	90	15	4	79%	4.4	25.0%	7.2%	17.7%	2.3%	3.48	3.17	—
2022	19	MIX	2 levels	14	11	62	256	90	15	4	79%	4.4	35.2%	5.9%	29.3%	1.6%	3.48	1.76	—
2023	20	MIX	2 levels	22	22	122	485	124	26	15	100%	5.5	19.1%	6.3%	12.8%	4.8%	3.55	4.90	—
2023	20	MIX	2 levels	22	22	122	485	124	26	15	100%	5.5	25.6%	5.4%	20.2%	3.1%	3.55	3.31	—
2024	21	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	20	19	82	364	70	31	9	95%	4.1	14.8%	9.8%	5.0%	3.7%	5.07	5.13	—
2024	21	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	20	19	82	364	70	31	9	95%	4.1	19.2%	8.5%	10.7%	2.5%	5.07	3.96	—
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	27	12	85	349	84	23	14	44%	3.1	18.6%	8.0%	10.7%	5.1%	4.36	5.34	—
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	27	12	85	349	84	23	14	44%	3.1	24.1%	6.6%	17.5%	4.0%	4.36	4.08	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	Midland RockHounds	18	1	24	110	20	17	1	6%	1.3	13.9%	18.4%	-4.5%	1.2%	3.04	4.95	-0.1
ROS	23	MLB	OAK	59	0	62	260	45	21	9	0%	1.0	17.2%	8.2%	9.0%	3.5%	5.00	5.00	-0.3
ROS	23	MLB	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.2%	8.2%	9.0%	3.4%	4.96	4.96	—
2026 TOT	23	MLB	OAK	—	—	85	370	65	38	10	—	—	17.5%	10.4%	7.1%	2.7%	4.46	4.99	+0.1
2026 FULL	23	MLB	OAK	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	17.2%	8.2%	9.0%	3.4%	4.96	4.58	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	OAK	10	10	63	266	49	22	9	100%	6.3	18.6%	8.1%	10.5%	3.4%	4.87	4.83	-0.2
2028	25	MLB	OAK	10	10	64	270	52	22	9	100%	6.4	19.3%	8.1%	11.3%	3.4%	4.77	4.73	-0.1
2029	26	MLB	OAK	10	10	64	270	53	22	9	100%	6.4	19.7%	8.1%	11.6%	3.4%	4.71	4.69	-0.0
2030	27	MLB	OAK	10	10	63	266	53	22	9	100%	6.3	19.8%	8.2%	11.6%	3.4%	4.71	4.72	-0.1
2031	28	MLB	OAK	10	10	61	258	51	21	9	100%	6.1	19.7%	8.3%	11.3%	3.5%	4.77	4.80	-0.2
2032	29	MLB	OAK	10	10	58	246	48	21	9	100%	5.8	19.4%	8.5%	10.9%	3.7%	4.87	4.93	-0.3
2027	24	MLB	OAK	4	4	27	114	21	9	4	100%	6.8	18.6%	8.1%	10.5%	3.4%	4.83	4.79	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	OAK	7	7	42	177	34	14	6	100%	6.0	19.3%	8.1%	11.3%	3.3%	4.73	4.69	-0.1
2029	26	MLB	OAK	8	8	51	215	42	17	7	100%	6.4	19.7%	8.1%	11.6%	3.3%	4.67	4.65	-0.1
2030	27	MLB	OAK	9	9	54	228	45	19	8	100%	6.0	19.8%	8.2%	11.6%	3.3%	4.67	4.68	-0.1
2031	28	MLB	OAK	9	9	54	228	45	19	8	100%	6.0	19.7%	8.3%	11.3%	3.4%	4.73	4.76	-0.1
2032	29	MLB	OAK	9	9	53	224	43	19	8	100%	5.9	19.4%	8.5%	10.9%	3.6%	4.82	4.88	-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			46	46	281	1188	232	98	40	100%	6.1	19.5%	8.2%	11.3%	3.4%	4.73	4.36	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—			33	33	200	844	165	70	28	99%	6.1	19.5%	8.2%	11.3%	3.4%	4.73	4.36	+2.4
Career	—			104	68	383	1592	311	133	62	65%	3.7	19.5%	8.3%	11.2%	3.9%	3.93	4.63	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—			54	36	200	832	162	69	32	65%	3.7	19.5%	8.3%	11.2%	3.9%	3.93	4.63	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jorge Marcheco (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	17.2%	8.2%	3.5%	—	4.75	19.2%	11.1%	191	-0.25	—	—	—
John Matthews R 2026 · 4.88 FIP	23	SW	4.88	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.67	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.21	4.40	213	87
Connor Johnstone R 2026 · 4.49 FIP	23	SW	4.49	15.7%	7.6%	3.2%	.272	4.58	12.9%	7.9%	166	+0.09	3.90	319	87
Michael Santos R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	23	SW	4.50	17.4%	9.1%	3.1%	.289	4.91	15.0%	6.4%	49	+0.41	2.26	276	85
Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.50 FIP	24	SP-	4.50	17.8%	9.3%	3.1%	.300	3.74	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.76	3.74	107	85
Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	23	SW	4.58	16.4%	10.5%	2.8%	.263	4.63	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.05	3.57	389	84
Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP-	4.34	18.4%	11.5%	2.4%	.306	4.68	16.2%	5.7%	316	+0.34	3.90	371	84
Evan McKendry R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SW	4.24	18.4%	5.5%	3.6%	.256	5.40	18.7%	11.6%	324	+1.16	4.14	474	84
Yaisel Sierra R 2028 · 4.31 FIP	25	SW	4.31	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.01	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.30	3.01	176	84
Matt Peacock R 2027 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.20	13.6%	5.2%	202	-0.02	3.96	354	84
Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.40 FIP	23	SW	4.40	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.82	25.6%	15.0%	145	-0.58	2.52	275	83
Shohei Tomioka R 2028 · 4.06 FIP	25	SW	4.06	18.9%	9.0%	2.6%	.311	4.48	17.3%	3.8%	141	+0.42	3.63	281	83
Clay Chandler R 2026 · 4.97 FIP	23	SP-	4.97	18.3%	6.0%	4.8%	.319	5.05	14.8%	8.8%	293	+0.08	4.82	328	83
Cade Winquest R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.91	20.0%	9.6%	158	-0.45	3.34	236	82
Greyfer Eregua R 2026 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP-	4.85	18.3%	9.3%	3.9%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	126	82
Anyelo Gómez R 2026 · 4.85 FIP	23	SW	4.85	17.1%	12.2%	3.0%	.292	2.69	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.16	2.69	145	82
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	15.6%	9.5%	3.5%	.354	3.46	18.9%	9.4%	89	-1.45	3.06	165	81
Dakota Hawkins R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	24	SW	4.02	16.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.277	3.65	19.4%	11.4%	83	-0.37	3.43	167	81
Adam Leverett R 2026 · 5.08 FIP	23	SW	5.08	20.6%	9.3%	4.6%	.338	4.11	13.8%	4.8%	154	-0.97	3.26	376	81
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	23	SP-	4.91	12.7%	9.1%	3.1%	.348	3.83	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.08	3.22	218	81
Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.98 FIP	23	SP-	3.98	21.2%	8.7%	2.9%	.374	4.64	20.5%	7.6%	188	+0.66	3.18	234	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7	62	19.1%	8.2%	1.34	4.81
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Drew VerHagen ('23)	6	43	19.7%	9.4%	1.40	4.82
Luis Cessa ('23)	8	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Matt Wisler ('22)	8	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Austin Voth ('24)	6	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Adam Morgan ('21)	6	59	20.5%	7.1%	1.56	4.77