Jorge Marcheco — OGILVIE

Jorge Marcheco P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 197 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.8 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.96

FIP4.96

K%17.2%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	3	3	9	28	20	0	0	100%	3.0	71.4%	0.0%	71.4%	0.0%	0.00	-2.93	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	3	3	9	28	20	0	0	100%	3.0	71.4%	0.0%	71.4%	0.0%	0.00	-1.34	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	11	62	256	90	15	4	79%	4.4	25.0%	7.2%	17.7%	2.2%	3.48	3.09	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	11	62	256	90	15	4	79%	4.4	35.2%	5.9%	29.3%	1.6%	3.48	1.76	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	122	485	124	26	15	100%	5.5	19.1%	6.3%	12.8%	4.3%	3.55	4.66	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	122	485	124	26	15	100%	5.5	19.1%	6.3%	12.8%	4.3%	3.55	4.66	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	122	485	124	26	15	100%	5.5	25.6%	5.4%	20.2%	3.1%	3.55	3.31	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	20	19	82	364	70	31	9	95%	4.1	14.8%	9.8%	5.0%	3.4%	5.07	4.94	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	20	19	82	364	70	31	9	95%	4.1	14.8%	9.8%	5.0%	3.4%	5.07	4.94	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	20	19	82	364	70	31	9	95%	4.1	19.2%	8.5%	10.7%	2.5%	5.07	3.96	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	12	85	349	84	23	14	44%	3.1	18.6%	8.0%	10.7%	5.1%	4.36	5.34	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	12	85	349	84	23	14	44%	3.1	18.6%	8.0%	10.7%	5.1%	4.36	5.34	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	12	85	349	84	23	14	44%	3.1	24.1%	6.6%	17.5%	4.0%	4.36	4.08	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	27	9	63	278	46	33	13	33%	2.3	12.6%	13.7%	-1.1%	6.1%	4.88	7.10	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	27	9	63	278	46	33	13	33%	2.3	12.6%	13.7%	-1.1%	6.1%	4.88	7.10	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	OAK	26	9	61	268	44	32	13	35%	2.3	16.4%	11.9%	4.5%	4.9%	4.57	5.89	—
2026	23	AA RAW	OAK	1	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	1.7	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	16.20	2.68	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	OAK	5	0	5	22	4	2	1	0%	1.0	17.2%	8.1%	9.1%	3.5%	4.96	4.96	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	68	300	50	35	14	—	—	16.6%	11.6%	5.0%	4.6%	4.89	6.94	-1.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	78	330	61	26	11	100%	6.0	18.6%	8.0%	10.6%	3.4%	4.83	4.79	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	79	334	64	27	11	100%	6.1	19.3%	8.0%	11.3%	3.4%	4.74	4.70	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	79	334	66	27	11	100%	6.1	19.7%	8.0%	11.7%	3.3%	4.68	4.66	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	78	329	65	27	11	100%	6.0	19.8%	8.1%	11.7%	3.4%	4.68	4.69	+0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	76	319	63	26	11	100%	5.8	19.7%	8.2%	11.4%	3.5%	4.73	4.77	+0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	72	305	59	26	11	100%	6.0	19.4%	8.5%	11.0%	3.6%	4.83	4.90	0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	68	287	55	25	11	100%	6.2	19.1%	8.8%	10.3%	3.8%	4.98	5.08	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	OAK	6	6	34	144	27	11	5	100%	5.7	18.6%	8.0%	10.6%	3.3%	4.78	4.74	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	53	224	43	18	7	100%	5.9	19.3%	8.0%	11.3%	3.3%	4.69	4.65	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	63	266	52	21	9	100%	6.3	19.7%	8.0%	11.7%	3.3%	4.63	4.61	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	66	279	55	23	9	100%	6.0	19.8%	8.1%	11.7%	3.3%	4.63	4.64	+0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	67	283	56	23	10	100%	6.1	19.7%	8.2%	11.4%	3.4%	4.68	4.72	+0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	66	279	54	24	10	100%	6.0	19.4%	8.5%	11.0%	3.5%	4.78	4.85	0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	63	266	51	23	10	100%	6.3	19.1%	8.8%	10.3%	3.7%	4.93	5.03	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		69	69	411	1735	337	143	59	100%	6.0	19.4%	8.2%	11.2%	3.4%	4.73	4.37	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	164	70	29	100%	6.0	19.4%	8.2%	11.2%	3.4%	4.73	4.37	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		113	76	422	1760	331	151	73	67%	3.7	18.8%	8.6%	10.2%	4.2%	4.12	4.89	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	36	200	835	157	71	35	67%	3.7	18.8%	8.6%	10.2%	4.2%	4.12	4.89	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jorge Marcheco (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.96	17.2%	8.1%	3.5%	—	4.72	19.2%	11.2%	236	-0.24	—	—	—
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	86
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	86
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	85
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	85
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	84
Connor Johnstone R 2018 · 4.40 FIP	23	SW	4.40	15.7%	7.6%	3.0%	.272	4.51	12.9%	7.9%	166	+0.11	3.78	319	84
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	84
Michael Santos R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	17.4%	9.1%	2.9%	.289	4.87	15.0%	6.4%	49	+0.46	2.26	276	83
Evan McKendry R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	18.4%	5.5%	3.6%	.256	5.11	18.0%	11.7%	324	+0.91	4.20	474	83
Clay Chandler R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	23	SP-	4.97	18.3%	6.0%	4.8%	.319	4.89	14.8%	8.8%	293	-0.08	4.49	328	83
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	82
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	82
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	82
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	82
Greyfer Eregua R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP-	4.87	18.3%	9.3%	3.9%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	126	82
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	81
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	81
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	81
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	81
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	74	19.1%	8.2%	1.35	4.80
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86