Evan McKendry

P Charlotte Knights

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	AAAMIL	24	10	87	5.30	4.45	18.6%	8.9%	—	K 16.0% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.92
2025	27	AAACWS	24	14	87	5.26	4.82	15.9%	4.4%	—	K 13.7% · BB 4.0% · FIP 4.48
2027PROJ	29	MLBCWS	1	1	7	4.84	4.84	12.9%	5.3%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBCWS	3	3	21	4.89	4.97	13.6%	5.9%	0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBCWS	4	4	26	5.01	5.12	14.0%	6.5%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control65Command45

CompsJuan Omar Espinoza (age 31) · Scott McGregor (age 28) · Colin Bates (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

K%12.9%

BB%5.3%

K-BB%7.7%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL6565

CMD4545

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	2	2	4	14	2	0	0	100%	2.0	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.89	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	2	2	4	14	2	0	0	100%	2.0	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	21	10	63	251	60	12	7	48%	3.0	18.4%	5.5%	12.9%	3.6%	3.73	4.20	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	21	10	63	251	60	12	7	48%	3.0	23.9%	4.8%	19.1%	2.8%	3.73	3.21	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	95	396	97	13	17	83%	4.1	20.1%	3.6%	16.5%	5.2%	3.99	4.70	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	19	95	396	97	13	17	83%	4.1	24.5%	3.3%	21.2%	4.3%	3.99	3.80	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	28	23	142	595	130	46	27	82%	5.1	18.8%	7.0%	11.8%	5.5%	4.30	5.42	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	28	23	142	595	130	46	27	82%	5.1	21.8%	7.7%	14.1%	4.5%	4.30	4.71	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	24	10	87	370	69	33	12	42%	3.6	16.0%	8.0%	8.0%	3.9%	5.30	4.92	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	24	10	87	370	69	33	12	42%	3.6	16.0%	8.0%	8.0%	3.9%	5.30	4.92	—
2024	26	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	24	10	87	370	69	33	12	42%	3.6	18.6%	8.9%	9.7%	3.2%	5.30	4.45	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	24	14	87	383	61	17	17	58%	3.6	13.7%	4.0%	9.7%	3.7%	5.26	4.48	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	24	14	87	383	61	17	17	58%	3.6	13.7%	4.0%	9.7%	3.7%	5.26	4.48	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	24	14	87	383	61	17	17	58%	3.6	15.9%	4.4%	11.5%	4.4%	5.26	4.82	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CWS	1	1	7	30	4	2	1	100%	7.0	12.9%	5.3%	7.7%	3.3%	4.84	4.84	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CWS	9	9	56	238	32	14	8	100%	6.3	13.6%	5.9%	7.7%	3.4%	4.89	4.97	+0.3
2029	31	MLB MLE	CWS	8	8	48	202	28	13	7	100%	6.0	14.0%	6.5%	7.4%	3.6%	5.01	5.12	+0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	CWS	3	3	21	89	12	5	3	100%	7.0	13.6%	5.9%	7.7%	3.4%	4.89	4.97	+0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	CWS	4	4	26	110	15	7	4	100%	6.5	14.0%	6.5%	7.4%	3.6%	5.01	5.12	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	8	47	199	27	12	7	100%	5.9	13.8%	6.3%	7.5%	3.5%	4.96	4.67	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	115	51	30	100%	6.1	13.8%	6.3%	7.5%	3.5%	4.96	4.67	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		122	78	478	2009	351	114	91	64%	3.9	17.5%	5.7%	11.8%	4.5%	4.48	4.83	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	33	200	841	147	48	38	64%	3.9	17.5%	5.7%	11.8%	4.5%	4.48	4.83	+0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 87 IPFIP 4.75 → 4.48 (−0.27)K% 15.9% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.93%	—	×0.860	13.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.44%	—	×0.900	3.99%
HR / BF /BF	4.44%	÷1.320	×1.100	3.70%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 164).

Result: FIP 4.75 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANashville Sounds · 87 IPFIP 4.44 → 4.92 (+0.48)K% 18.6% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.65%	—	×0.860	16.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.92%	—	×0.900	8.03%
HR / BF /BF	3.24%	÷0.909	×1.100	3.92%

Result: FIP 4.44 → 4.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAANashville Sounds · 142 IPFIP 4.73 → 5.42 (+0.70)K% 21.8% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.85%	—	×0.860	18.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.73%	—	×0.900	6.96%
HR / BF /BF	4.54%	÷0.905	×1.100	5.52%

Result: FIP 4.73 → 5.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 81 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.61 (+0.97)K% 24.6% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.63%	—	×0.810	19.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.67%	—	×1.100	2.94%
HR / BF /BF	4.15%	÷0.970	×1.200	5.14%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAADurham Bulls · 14 IPFIP 4.75 → 5.21 (+0.46)K% 23.7% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.73%	—	×0.880	20.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.78%	—	×1.050	7.12%
HR / BF /BF	5.08%	÷1.034	×1.100	5.41%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 4.75 → 5.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 63 IPFIP 3.22 → 4.20 (+0.98)K% 23.9% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.90%	—	×0.770	18.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.78%	—	×1.150	5.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.79%	÷0.978	×1.250	3.57%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.22 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Evan McKendry (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	12.9%	5.3%	3.3%	—	5.04	13.8%	7.6%	104	+0.20	—	—	—
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	82
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	81
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	79
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	79
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	78
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	76
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	75
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	74
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	73
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	73
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	73
Joe Roa R 2002 · 4.60 FIP	30	SP-	4.60	11.7%	3.7%	3.7%	.278	4.47	15.5%	9.3%	121	-0.13	4.28	258	72
Kyle Friedrichs R 2021 · 4.73 FIP	29	SP-	4.73	13.9%	6.2%	3.7%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	603	72
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	72
Aaron Brooks R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.0%	7.1%	3.9%	.281	4.38	15.8%	8.8%	70	-0.34	3.71	879	71
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	71
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	71
Luke Hudson R 2006 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	14.5%	8.4%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	235	71
Matt Benedict R 2015 · 4.00 FIP	26	SP-	4.00	10.3%	4.8%	2.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	130	71
Gabriel Arias R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	29	SP-	4.11	13.9%	6.8%	2.4%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	13.4%	5.8%	1.32	4.90
Lance Carter ('06)	1.3	63	12.0%	6.9%	1.35	4.15
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Chris Spurling ('07)	1.1	55	10.6%	7.1%	1.15	4.32
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*