Yasser Mercedes
OF Cedar Rapids Kernels| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A/ROKMIN | 243 | .292/.391/.488 | 6 | 21 | 64 | — | .194/.267/.328 |
| 2025 | 20 | A/ROK/INTL2 orgs | 484 | .199/.308/.329 | 12 | 38 | 37 | — | .153/.235/.261 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+/A/INTL2 orgs | 546 | .254/.352/.456 | 19 | 56 | 73 | — | .195/.272/.349 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBMIN | 1 | .174/.251/.302 | 0 | 0 | 56 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ25% MLB | 23 | MLBMIN | 115 | .182/.259/.324 | 3 | 6 | 64 | -0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ36% MLB | 24 | MLBMIN | 185 | .188/.266/.338 | 6 | 9 | 70 | -0.3 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Twins | — | 176 | 155 | 55 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 35 | 1 | 30 | 5 | 355 | 425 | 555 | 980 | 200 | 432 | 20 | 10 | 425 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Twins | — | 105 | 97 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 196 | 250 | 381 | 631 | 186 | 211 | 22 | 6 | 277 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 48 | 40 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 125 | 271 | 150 | 421 | 25 | 227 | 38 | 12 | 220 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Twins | — | 195 | 169 | 56 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 39 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 331 | 421 | 568 | 989 | 237 | 403 | 20 | 12 | 432 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 419 | 355 | 66 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 55 | 105 | 3 | 34 | 1 | 186 | 300 | 307 | 607 | 121 | 228 | 25 | 13 | 279 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Twins | — | 21 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 471 | 571 | 824 | 1.395 | 353 | 583 | 19 | 10 | 591 | 165 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | INTL | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 44 | 41 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 195 | 250 | 317 | 567 | 122 | 280 | 34 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 394 | 345 | 80 | 23 | 1 | 12 | 39 | 116 | 7 | 41 | 6 | 232 | 322 | 409 | 731 | 177 | 309 | 29 | 10 | 326 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 98 | 81 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 321 | 439 | 642 | 1.081 | 321 | 370 | 21 | 17 | 463 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 54 | 43 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 302 | 412 | 488 | 900 | 186 | 324 | 15 | 15 | 376 | 141 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 176 | 163 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 1 | 30 | 5 | 221 | 270 | 331 | 601 | 110 | 278 | 24 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 105 | 99 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 141 | 183 | 283 | 466 | 141 | 157 | 30 | 4 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 48 | 42 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 95 | 208 | 119 | 327 | 24 | 195 | 52 | 8 | 154 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 195 | 179 | 39 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 58 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 218 | 282 | 380 | 662 | 162 | 296 | 30 | 7 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 419 | 374 | 54 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 144 | 3 | 34 | 1 | 144 | 225 | 243 | 468 | 99 | 191 | 34 | 9 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 21 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 333 | 429 | 611 | 1.040 | 278 | 434 | 29 | 5 | 412 | 165 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 394 | 356 | 64 | 17 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 147 | 7 | 41 | 6 | 180 | 253 | 309 | 562 | 129 | 261 | 37 | 7 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 98 | 86 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 29 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 256 | 347 | 512 | 859 | 256 | 310 | 30 | 12 | 348 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 176 | 163 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 1 | 30 | 5 | 221 | 270 | 331 | 601 | 110 | 283 | 24 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Twins | — | 176 | 155 | 55 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 35 | 1 | 30 | 5 | 355 | 425 | 555 | 980 | 200 | 432 | 20 | 10 | 425 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 105 | 99 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 141 | 183 | 283 | 466 | 141 | 169 | 30 | 4 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Twins | — | 105 | 97 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 196 | 250 | 381 | 631 | 186 | 211 | 22 | 6 | 277 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 243 | 220 | 43 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 82 | 4 | 21 | 5 | 195 | 272 | 332 | 603 | 136 | 286 | 34 | 8 | 262 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 243 | 209 | 61 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 57 | 4 | 21 | 5 | 292 | 391 | 488 | 879 | 196 | 377 | 23 | 12 | 390 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 484 | 432 | 65 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 164 | 5 | 38 | 4 | 150 | 232 | 250 | 482 | 100 | 208 | 34 | 8 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 484 | 413 | 82 | 18 | 0 | 12 | 60 | 124 | 5 | 38 | 4 | 199 | 308 | 329 | 637 | 131 | 247 | 26 | 12 | 291 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 546 | 489 | 94 | 22 | 3 | 15 | 44 | 195 | 7 | 56 | 11 | 192 | 269 | 342 | 610 | 149 | 277 | 36 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 546 | 469 | 119 | 28 | 5 | 19 | 64 | 145 | 7 | 56 | 11 | 254 | 352 | 456 | 808 | 203 | 322 | 27 | 12 | 355 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 176 | 163 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 1 | 30 | 5 | 221 | 270 | 331 | 601 | 110 | 278 | 24 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 105 | 99 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 141 | 183 | 283 | 466 | 141 | 157 | 30 | 4 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 243 | 218 | 43 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 82 | 4 | 21 | 5 | 197 | 272 | 335 | 606 | 138 | 276 | 34 | 8 | 262 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 484 | 435 | 65 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 164 | 5 | 38 | 4 | 149 | 232 | 248 | 480 | 99 | 203 | 34 | 8 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 546 | 490 | 94 | 22 | 3 | 15 | 44 | 195 | 7 | 56 | 11 | 192 | 269 | 341 | 609 | 149 | 271 | 36 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 243 | 218 | 43 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 82 | 4 | 21 | 5 | 197 | 272 | 335 | 606 | 138 | 276 | 34 | 8 | 262 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 484 | 435 | 65 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 164 | 5 | 38 | 4 | 149 | 232 | 248 | 480 | 99 | 203 | 34 | 8 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 546 | 490 | 94 | 22 | 3 | 15 | 44 | 195 | 7 | 56 | 11 | 192 | 269 | 341 | 609 | 149 | 271 | 36 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | MIN | 0% | 602 | 542 | 94 | 20 | 2 | 15 | 49 | 204 | 6 | 31 | 4 | 174 | 251 | 302 | 552 | 128 | 242 | 34 | 8 | 251 | 56 | -32 | +5 | -1 | -4 | +13 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | MIN | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 251 | 302 | 553 | 128 | 242 | 0 | 0 | 251 | 56 | -0 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | MIN | 25% | 458 | 412 | 76 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 38 | 150 | 5 | 24 | 3 | 182 | 259 | 323 | 582 | 141 | 246 | 33 | 8 | 263 | 64 | -20 | +4 | -0 | -3 | +10 | -1.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIN | 36% | 509 | 456 | 87 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 43 | 163 | 5 | 26 | 3 | 188 | 266 | 337 | 603 | 149 | 249 | 32 | 8 | 271 | 70 | -18 | +4 | -0 | -3 | +11 | -0.7 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIN | 43% | 550 | 492 | 95 | 19 | 2 | 18 | 47 | 173 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 192 | 270 | 346 | 616 | 154 | 252 | 31 | 9 | 276 | 73 | -18 | +4 | -0 | -3 | +12 | -0.5 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIN | 47% | 564 | 505 | 98 | 20 | 2 | 18 | 48 | 175 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 195 | 273 | 352 | 625 | 156 | 254 | 31 | 9 | 280 | 76 | -16 | +4 | -0 | -3 | +12 | -0.4 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIN | 48% | 566 | 506 | 100 | 20 | 2 | 18 | 49 | 174 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 197 | 274 | 352 | 626 | 155 | 256 | 31 | 9 | 281 | 76 | -16 | +4 | -0 | -3 | +12 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | MIN | 25% | 115 | 103 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 182 | 259 | 324 | 583 | 141 | 246 | 33 | 9 | 263 | 64 | -5 | +1 | -0 | -1 | +2 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIN | 36% | 185 | 165 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 59 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 188 | 266 | 338 | 604 | 150 | 249 | 32 | 9 | 271 | 70 | -7 | +1 | -0 | -1 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIN | 43% | 236 | 212 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 74 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 193 | 270 | 347 | 617 | 155 | 252 | 31 | 8 | 277 | 73 | -8 | +2 | -0 | -1 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIN | 47% | 263 | 235 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 82 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 196 | 273 | 352 | 626 | 157 | 254 | 31 | 9 | 280 | 76 | -8 | +2 | -0 | -2 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIN | 48% | 269 | 241 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 83 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 197 | 275 | 353 | 627 | 156 | 256 | 31 | 9 | 281 | 76 | -8 | +2 | -0 | -2 | +6 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1068 | 956 | 184 | 37 | 4 | 35 | 92 | 336 | 11 | 53 | 8 | 192 | 271 | 349 | 620 | 157 | 253 | 31 | 9 | 276 | 64 | -35 | +7 | -0 | -6 | +23 | -1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 582 | 112 | 23 | 2 | 21 | 56 | 204 | 7 | 32 | 5 | 192 | 271 | 347 | 618 | 155 | 253 | 31 | 9 | 276 | 64 | -21 | +5 | -0 | -4 | +14 | -0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4411 | 3963 | 741 | 159 | 18 | 123 | 360 | 1422 | 48 | 296 | 45 | 187 | 263 | 329 | 592 | 142 | 252 | 32 | 8 | 263 | 64 | -99 | +21 | -1 | -17 | +62 | -3.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 584 | 109 | 23 | 3 | 18 | 53 | 210 | 7 | 44 | 7 | 187 | 262 | 329 | 591 | 142 | 253 | 32 | 8 | 263 | 64 | -23 | +5 | -0 | -4 | +14 | -0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 394 PAwOBA .320 → .245 (−75)K% 29.4% → 37.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.44% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 37.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 7.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.78% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.958 | ×1.012 | 17.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.958 | ×1.012 | 7.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.958 | ×1.012 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.24% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 4.24% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .320 → .245; ISO .177 → .132; BABIP .309 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 98 PAwOBA .451 → .348 (−103)K% 21.4% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.43% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | — | 11.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 20.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | — | 5.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | — | 2.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 8.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .451 → .348; ISO .321 → .250; BABIP .370 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 419 PAwOBA .276 → .210 (−66)K% 25.1% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.06% | ÷0.994 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.13% | ÷1.054 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 8.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.72% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.20% | ÷1.029 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 14.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.20% | ÷1.032 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 4.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.00% | ÷0.898 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.62% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 106, 2B 106, 3B 100, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .276 → .210; ISO .121 → .099; BABIP .228 → .191. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Twins · 21 PAwOBA .575 → .412 (−163)K% 19.0% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.05% | ÷0.998 | ×1.440 | — | — | 27.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷0.981 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 5.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 9.52% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 6.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷1.028 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 24.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.979 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 16.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.006 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 5.87% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 106, 2B 96, 3B 100, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .575 → .412; ISO .353 → .254; BABIP .583 → .434. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Twins · 195 PAwOBA .420 → .289 (−131)K% 20.0% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.974 | ×1.440 | — | — | 29.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.31% | ÷1.046 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 7.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.036 | ×0.820 | ×0.961 | ×0.995 | 17.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.85% | ÷0.971 | ×0.720 | ×0.961 | ×0.995 | 9.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×0.961 | ×0.995 | 1.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.62% | ÷0.890 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 4.03% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 107, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 95, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .420 → .289; ISO .237 → .175; BABIP .403 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 48 PAwOBA .216 → .154 (−61)K% 37.5% → 51.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.50% | ÷0.994 | ×1.360 | — | — | 51.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.976 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 9.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.17% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 3.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.096 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.030 | 15.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.019 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.030 | 3.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.962 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.962 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 119, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .216 → .154; ISO .025 → .017; BABIP .227 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Twins · 105 PAwOBA .271 → .193 (−78)K% 21.9% → 30.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.90% | ÷1.025 | ×1.440 | — | — | 30.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.71% | ÷0.963 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 3.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.51% | ÷1.018 | ×0.820 | ×0.959 | ×1.008 | 10.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.41% | ÷1.014 | ×0.720 | ×0.959 | ×1.008 | 3.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.35% | ÷0.934 | ×0.720 | ×0.959 | ×1.008 | 1.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.41% | ÷0.913 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 4.65% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 87, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .271 → .193; ISO .186 → .138; BABIP .211 → .157. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Twins · 176 PAwOBA .416 → .262 (−153)K% 19.9% → 24.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.89% | ÷0.981 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.116 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 5.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.17% | ÷0.974 | ×0.680 | ×0.967 | ×1.008 | 19.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.83% | ÷0.974 | ×0.600 | ×0.967 | ×1.008 | 6.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.013 | ×0.600 | ×0.967 | ×1.008 | 1.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.032 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 1.53% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 95, 2B 95, 3B 103, K 96, BB 123 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .416 → .262; ISO .200 → .110; BABIP .432 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .