Alton Davis II — OGILVIE

Alton Davis II P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 22 LHP 6'5" / 181 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.2 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%20.8%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.1M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	7	0	8	38	10	8	0	0%	1.1	26.3%	21.1%	5.3%	0.0%	2.25	3.54	—
2025	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	7	0	8	38	10	8	0	0%	1.1	26.3%	21.1%	5.3%	0.0%	2.25	3.54	—
2025	21	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	7	0	8	38	10	8	0	0%	1.1	26.3%	21.1%	5.3%	0.0%	2.25	3.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	25	16	76	387	83	46	11	64%	3.0	15.9%	14.0%	1.8%	3.7%	9.47	5.56	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	25	16	76	387	83	46	11	64%	3.0	15.9%	14.0%	1.8%	3.7%	9.47	5.56	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	LAA	25	16	76	387	83	46	11	64%	3.0	21.4%	11.9%	9.6%	2.8%	9.47	4.35	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	77	326	71	35	10	100%	5.5	21.8%	10.8%	11.0%	3.0%	4.72	4.64	+0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	79	334	75	34	10	100%	5.6	22.5%	10.1%	12.4%	2.9%	4.57	4.48	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	80	338	77	33	10	100%	5.7	22.9%	9.6%	13.3%	2.9%	4.45	4.38	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	80	338	78	32	10	100%	6.2	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	2.9%	4.39	4.35	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	79	333	84	29	10	100%	6.1	25.1%	8.8%	16.3%	3.0%	4.23	4.12	+0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	76	323	81	29	10	100%	5.9	25.0%	9.0%	16.0%	3.1%	4.21	4.20	+0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	73	309	76	28	10	100%	6.1	24.7%	9.2%	15.5%	3.2%	4.28	4.33	+0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	69	290	71	28	10	100%	6.2	24.4%	9.5%	14.9%	3.4%	4.42	4.51	+0.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	64	271	65	27	10	100%	5.8	24.0%	9.8%	14.1%	3.7%	4.60	4.71	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAA	7	7	38	160	35	17	5	100%	5.4	21.8%	10.8%	11.0%	3.0%	4.75	4.67	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	55	232	52	23	7	100%	5.5	22.5%	10.1%	12.4%	3.0%	4.60	4.51	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	65	274	63	26	8	100%	5.9	22.9%	9.6%	13.3%	3.0%	4.48	4.41	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	70	296	68	28	9	100%	5.8	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	3.0%	4.42	4.38	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	71	300	75	26	9	100%	5.9	25.1%	8.8%	16.3%	3.0%	4.26	4.15	+0.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	70	296	74	27	9	100%	5.8	25.0%	9.0%	16.0%	3.2%	4.24	4.23	+0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	68	287	71	26	9	100%	6.2	24.7%	9.2%	15.5%	3.3%	4.32	4.37	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	64	270	66	26	9	100%	5.8	24.4%	9.5%	14.9%	3.5%	4.46	4.55	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	61	258	62	25	10	100%	6.1	24.0%	9.8%	14.1%	3.7%	4.64	4.75	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		96	96	563	2377	567	226	76	100%	5.9	23.8%	9.5%	14.3%	3.2%	4.44	4.05	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	201	80	27	100%	5.9	23.8%	9.5%	14.3%	3.2%	4.44	4.05	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		32	16	84	425	71	62	14	50%	2.6	16.8%	14.7%	2.2%	3.4%	8.79	5.38	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	38	200	1012	170	148	34	50%	2.6	16.8%	14.7%	2.2%	3.4%	8.79	5.38	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alton Davis II (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	20.8%	12.0%	3.0%	—	4.50	22.4%	12.2%	236	-0.40	—	—	—
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	85
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	82
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	82
Jack Patterson L 2018 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	14.7%	8.0%	3.4%	.299	3.10	19.4%	7.9%	80	-1.62	3.10	127	79
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	77
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	77
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	77
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	76
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	76
Kyle Twomey L 2016 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP-	4.07	17.6%	10.5%	2.1%	.298	3.96	14.8%	6.9%	68	-0.11	3.96	141	76
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	76
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	75
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	75
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.83	21.4%	10.7%	156	-0.19	2.44	171	74
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	74
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	74
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	74
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	73
Ryan Williamson L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.57	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.47	4.10	123	73
Tommy Sommer L 2021 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP-	4.65	23.9%	9.3%	4.3%	.196	5.36	18.6%	6.1%	205	+0.71	4.28	230	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	70	23.6%	9.7%	1.21	4.44
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59