Alton Davis II
P
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes
Age 22
LHP
6'5" / 181 lbs
A
peak 0.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 37 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 118
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
K%23.0%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP37
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 91 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 7 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 21.1% | 5.3% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 3.54 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 7 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 21.1% | 5.3% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 3.60 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 14 | 13 | 53 | 260 | 57 | 23 | 7 | 93% | 3.8 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 8.10 | 4.97 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAA | 7 | 7 | 37 | 157 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.0% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 91 | 417 | 93 | 38 | 12 | — | — | 22.3% | 9.0% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 6.56 | 4.72 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAA | 7 | 7 | 39 | 163 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.8% | 8.8% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAA | 4 | 4 | 19 | 80 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 4.8 | 23.8% | 8.8% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 4 | 4 | 19 | 80 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 4.8 | 23.8% | 8.8% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 3.84 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 37 | 200 | 844 | 200 | 74 | 21 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.8% | 8.8% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 3.84 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 21 | 13 | 61 | 298 | 52 | 35 | 9 | 62% | 2.9 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 7.34 | 4.79 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 68 | 42 | 200 | 972 | 170 | 115 | 30 | 62% | 2.9 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 7.34 | 4.79 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alton Davis II (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.22 | 23.8% | 14.9% | 39 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Mac Lardner L 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.35 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 119 | -0.28 | 3.54 | 186 | 83 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 82 |
| Tommy Sommer L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.59 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 4.2% | .196 | 5.30 | 18.6% | 6.1% | 205 | +0.71 | 4.20 | 230 | 81 |
| Ryan Williamson L 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.10 | 18.4% | 5.9% | 3.3% | .286 | 5.67 | 18.4% | 5.8% | 102 | +1.57 | 4.10 | 123 | 81 |
| Sonny Vargas L 2024 · 4.43 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.43 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 165 | 80 |
| Bryan Sammons L 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.60 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .275 | 3.91 | 18.4% | 8.4% | 228 | +0.31 | 3.53 | 688 | 79 |
| Dalton Pence L 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.32 | 23.8% | 9.6% | 1.8% | .271 | 3.89 | 22.0% | 13.9% | 71 | +0.57 | 3.32 | 153 | 78 |
| Bailey Horn L 2027 · 5.16 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.16 | 19.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .300 | 4.71 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 152 | -0.45 | 4.13 | 265 | 77 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2027 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .360 | 5.95 | 16.3% | -2.8% | 144 | +1.15 | 4.80 | 223 | 76 |
| Will Johnston L 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .290 | 4.34 | 22.8% | 8.6% | 82 | +0.13 | 4.04 | 174 | 76 |
| Hunter Barco L 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.51 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .275 | 3.79 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 150 | +0.28 | 3.51 | 212 | 76 |
| James Reeves L 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.50 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .237 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.1% | 146 | -0.20 | 2.02 | 280 | 76 |
| Nate Peterson L 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .284 | 4.47 | 17.1% | 5.8% | 213 | +0.07 | 3.67 | 288 | 76 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 76 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .349 | 4.18 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 175 | -0.31 | 3.65 | 308 | 75 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2028 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 75 |
| Keyshawn Askew L 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.37 | 25.6% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .274 | 3.78 | 20.7% | 5.5% | 196 | +0.41 | 3.37 | 262 | 74 |
| Kyle Twomey L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.08 | 17.6% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .298 | 3.89 | 14.8% | 6.9% | 68 | -0.19 | 3.89 | 141 | 74 |
| Rylan Kaufman L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.35 | 19.3% | 12.1% | 2.4% | .305 | 4.69 | 18.9% | 4.5% | 131 | +0.34 | 4.01 | 212 | 74 |
| Adam Seminaris L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.90 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 3.0% | .357 | 3.75 | 18.2% | 9.3% | 230 | -0.15 | 3.11 | 524 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 38 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 1.16 | 4.31 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |