Tristan Smith — OGILVIE

Tristan Smith P Daytona Tortugas

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%22.7%

BB%15.7%

K-BB%7.1%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	2	8	46	12	11	0	33%	1.3	26.1%	23.9%	2.2%	0.0%	11.25	3.93	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	2	8	46	12	11	0	33%	1.3	26.1%	23.9%	2.2%	0.0%	11.25	3.93	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	2	8	46	12	11	0	33%	1.3	26.1%	23.9%	2.2%	0.0%	11.25	4.22	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	14	0	24	129	31	34	7	0%	1.7	18.5%	31.5%	-13.0%	7.8%	8.37	9.84	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	14	0	24	129	31	34	7	0%	1.7	18.5%	31.5%	-13.0%	7.8%	8.37	9.84	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	CIN	2	0	3	13	2	3	0	0%	1.5	15.4%	23.1%	-7.7%	0.0%	0.00	4.72	—
2026	23	A RAW	CIN	12	0	21	116	29	31	7	0%	1.7	25.0%	26.7%	-1.7%	6.0%	9.58	7.69	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CIN	23	0	24	100	23	14	3	0%	1.0	23.4%	13.6%	9.8%	3.0%	4.98	4.89	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	CIN	10	0	10	42	10	6	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	13.6%	9.8%	3.0%	4.98	4.89	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	43	10	6	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	13.6%	9.8%	3.0%	4.98	4.51	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	197	118	20	0%	1.1	23.4%	13.6%	9.8%	3.0%	4.98	4.51	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		20	2	32	175	36	52	10	10%	1.6	20.5%	29.5%	-9.0%	5.8%	9.09	8.28	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	13	200	1105	227	326	64	10%	1.6	20.5%	29.5%	-9.0%	5.8%	9.09	8.28	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tristan Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	22.7%	15.7%	3.1%	—	4.89	23.4%	9.8%	24	-0.33	—	—	—
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	93
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	85
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	84
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	82
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	82
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	82
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	82
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	82
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	81
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	81
Fred Schlichtholz L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.368	4.13	18.5%	8.4%	80	-0.10	3.49	175	80
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	80
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	80
Brandon Neeck L 2023 · 4.19 FIP	23	SU	4.19	21.0%	13.9%	2.0%	.419	4.27	22.8%	8.8%	171	+0.08	3.22	198	80
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	80
Nick Jones L 2022 · 4.21 FIP	23	SU	4.21	22.3%	17.9%	1.3%	.284	3.63	21.7%	12.0%	143	-0.58	1.32	201	80
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	80
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	79
Joseph Menefee L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	23	SU	4.50	21.9%	18.5%	1.7%	.361	4.71	24.8%	6.0%	99	+0.21	3.22	146	79
Ben Harris L 2023 · 4.76 FIP	23	SU	4.76	25.4%	21.9%	1.9%	.252	5.32	22.4%	2.6%	76	+0.56	3.06	183	77