Tristan Smith
P
Daytona Tortugas
Age 23
LHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 119
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
K%23.3%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%13.5%
ROS IP13
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 2 | 8 | 46 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 33% | 1.3 | 26.1% | 23.9% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 11.25 | 3.93 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 2 | 8 | 46 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 33% | 1.3 | 26.1% | 23.9% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 11.25 | 4.22 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 11 | 0 | 20 | 105 | 24 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.8 | 17.6% | 33.9% | -16.3% | 6.4% | 8.10 | 9.44 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | 13 | 0 | 13 | 56 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.3% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.42 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 33 | 161 | 37 | 35 | 7 | — | — | 23.0% | 22.0% | 1.0% | 4.2% | 6.63 | 7.43 | -1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.29 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 3.91 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 211 | 70 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 17 | 2 | 28 | 151 | 30 | 47 | 7 | 12% | 1.6 | 20.2% | 30.8% | -10.7% | 4.5% | 9.00 | 7.76 | -1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 121 | 14 | 200 | 1079 | 218 | 333 | 48 | 12% | 1.6 | 20.2% | 30.8% | -10.7% | 4.5% | 9.00 | 7.76 | -5.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tristan Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 23.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.29 | 23.8% | 14.6% | 20 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Mitchell L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.75 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .333 | 2.67 | 23.8% | 15.8% | 78 | -1.08 | 2.51 | 119 | 84 |
| Harry Gustin L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.77 | 23.0% | 11.4% | 2.1% | .271 | 5.25 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 39 | +1.48 | 3.77 | 132 | 82 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.62 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.3% | .364 | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.65 | 3.97 | 101 | 81 |
| Garvin Alston L 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.29 | 19.7% | 6.6% | 3.7% | .333 | 4.76 | 16.4% | 2.9% | 84 | +0.47 | 4.01 | 232 | 81 |
| Easton Lucas L 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .316 | 4.00 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 184 | -0.21 | 3.49 | 311 | 81 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2028 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 80 |
| Daniel Zamora L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.52 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 1.4% | .294 | 2.76 | 24.7% | 16.8% | 135 | -0.76 | 2.17 | 310 | 80 |
| Robert Garcia L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.63 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .342 | 4.41 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 106 | -0.22 | 2.21 | 452 | 80 |
| Brian Marconi L 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .265 | 4.96 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.35 | 3.61 | 101 | 80 |
| Fred Schlichtholz L 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.41 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .368 | 4.36 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 80 | -0.05 | 3.76 | 175 | 79 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.11 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 2.3% | .320 | 5.97 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 73 | +1.86 | 4.11 | 158 | 79 |
| Wyatt Short L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.92 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 2.7% | .262 | 3.93 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 91 | +0.01 | 2.70 | 288 | 79 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 161 | 78 |
| Michael Johnson L 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.09 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .260 | 4.51 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.42 | 3.88 | 256 | 78 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.53 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.5% | .283 | 4.48 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.05 | 4.48 | 110 | 78 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.54 | 23.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .259 | 4.09 | 19.9% | 7.5% | 106 | +0.55 | 3.54 | 206 | 78 |
| Josh Simpson L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.43 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 3.4% | .290 | 3.28 | 33.4% | 19.3% | 102 | -1.15 | 3.07 | 247 | 77 |
| Chase Johnson-Mullins L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.45 | 19.9% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .336 | 3.80 | 15.6% | -0.3% | 20 | +0.35 | 3.24 | 144 | 77 |
| Wesley Moore L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.83 | 25.9% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .254 | 4.14 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 58 | +0.31 | 3.83 | 111 | 77 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2027 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.01 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.55 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.54 | 1.71 | 206 | 77 |