Christian Foutch

Christian Foutch P Salem RidgeYaks

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 240 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 30 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.49

FIP5.49

K%22.4%

BB%18.0%

K-BB%4.4%

ROS IP30

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Salem RidgeYaks	22	18	70	325	89	71	4	82%	3.2	20.3%	25.8%	-5.5%	1.6%	6.04	5.53	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Salem RidgeYaks	22	18	70	325	89	71	4	82%	3.2	20.3%	25.8%	-5.5%	1.6%	6.04	5.53	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	BOS	22	18	70	325	89	71	4	82%	3.2	27.4%	21.8%	5.5%	1.2%	6.04	4.23	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	71	301	70	46	9	100%	5.5	23.3%	15.3%	8.0%	2.9%	5.18	5.05	-0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	73	308	73	41	9	100%	5.6	23.8%	13.5%	10.4%	2.9%	4.91	4.76	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	74	312	75	38	9	100%	5.7	24.2%	12.3%	11.9%	2.9%	4.70	4.57	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	74	312	76	38	9	100%	6.2	24.4%	12.1%	12.2%	2.9%	4.61	4.55	+0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	73	307	75	38	9	100%	6.1	24.3%	12.2%	12.1%	2.9%	4.59	4.58	+0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	71	298	72	37	9	100%	5.9	24.2%	12.4%	11.9%	3.0%	4.64	4.67	+0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	67	285	68	36	9	100%	6.1	24.0%	12.6%	11.4%	3.2%	4.73	4.80	+0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	63	268	63	34	9	100%	5.8	23.6%	12.9%	10.8%	3.4%	4.88	4.97	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	35	148	34	23	4	100%	5.8	23.3%	15.3%	8.0%	2.8%	5.14	5.01	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	51	215	51	29	6	100%	5.7	23.8%	13.5%	10.4%	2.8%	4.87	4.72	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	60	253	61	31	7	100%	6.0	24.2%	12.3%	11.9%	2.8%	4.66	4.53	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	65	274	67	33	8	100%	5.9	24.4%	12.1%	12.2%	2.8%	4.57	4.51	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	66	279	68	34	8	100%	6.0	24.3%	12.2%	12.1%	2.9%	4.55	4.54	+0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	65	274	66	34	8	100%	5.9	24.2%	12.4%	11.9%	3.0%	4.60	4.63	+0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	63	266	64	33	8	100%	6.3	24.0%	12.6%	11.4%	3.1%	4.69	4.76	+0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	59	249	59	32	8	100%	5.9	23.6%	12.9%	10.8%	3.3%	4.83	4.92	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		79	79	463	1956	470	249	58	100%	5.9	24.0%	12.7%	11.3%	2.9%	4.71	4.30	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	203	107	25	100%	5.9	24.0%	12.7%	11.3%	2.9%	4.71	4.30	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		22	18	70	325	66	84	5	82%	3.2	20.3%	25.8%	-5.5%	1.6%	6.04	5.53	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	51	200	929	188	239	15	82%	3.2	20.3%	25.8%	-5.5%	1.6%	6.04	5.53	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Foutch (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.49	22.4%	18.0%	3.0%	—	4.79	23.8%	10.1%	218	-0.70	—	—	—
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	85
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	84
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	82
Eddy Peralta R 2023 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP-	4.65	22.0%	19.8%	1.6%	.342	3.96	21.0%	1.7%	86	-0.69	3.73	117	80
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.97	25.4%	12.1%	198	-0.37	3.66	272	80
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.41	20.0%	8.4%	215	-1.19	4.34	257	80
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	79
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	79
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	78
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	78
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	77
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	77
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	77
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	3.37	241	77
Chen-Wei Lin R 2023 · 6.48 FIP	21	SP	6.48	21.3%	22.0%	4.4%	.379	3.81	20.5%	8.4%	257	-2.67	3.05	269	77
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	76
Dylan Lesko R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP	4.34	26.8%	18.3%	2.2%	.333	6.78	17.8%	-7.7%	124	+2.44	4.34	152	76
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.68	198	76
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	76
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	66	23.9%	13.1%	1.16	4.81
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39