Brandon Barriera

P Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 180 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTFG #509

Scout OFP44ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ATOR	1	1	1	13.50	3.85	12.5%	12.5%	—	K 12.5% · BB 12.5% · FIP 3.63
2025	21	ROKTOR	5	5	6	14.29	5.22	21.4%	28.6%	—	K 21.4% · BB 28.6% · FIP 4.91
2026	22	MIX3 levels	15	13	39	4.89	3.95	21.9%	15.8%	—	K 17.0% · BB 18.0% · FIP 4.94
2027PROJ	23	MLBTOR	9	9	52	5.62	5.62	18.8%	16.8%	-0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBTOR	4	4	23	5.33	5.22	20.1%	14.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBTOR	6	6	36	5.09	4.97	20.9%	13.2%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control45Command45FB velo50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 90%

CompsNate Savino (age 22) · Luke Fox (age 22) · Jeremy Wu-Yelland (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124132vR 140

ERA5.62

FIP5.62

K%18.8%

BB%16.8%

K-BB%2.0%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL—45

CMD3045

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	20	80	25	9	0	100%	2.9	23.3%	12.9%	10.4%	0.0%	3.98	2.77	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	20	80	25	9	0	100%	2.9	31.2%	11.2%	20.0%	0.0%	3.98	1.97	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	1	1	1	8	1	1	0	100%	1.3	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.0%	13.50	3.63	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	1	1	1	8	1	1	0	100%	1.3	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.0%	13.50	3.63	—
2024	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	1	1	1	8	1	1	0	100%	1.3	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.0%	13.50	3.85	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	5	5	6	28	6	8	0	100%	1.1	21.4%	28.6%	-7.1%	0.0%	14.29	4.91	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	5	5	6	28	6	8	0	100%	1.1	21.4%	28.6%	-7.1%	0.0%	14.29	4.91	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	5	5	6	28	6	8	0	100%	1.1	21.4%	28.6%	-7.1%	0.0%	14.29	5.22	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	13	39	183	40	29	2	87%	2.6	17.0%	18.0%	-1.1%	1.8%	4.89	4.94	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	13	39	183	40	29	2	87%	2.6	17.0%	18.0%	-1.1%	1.8%	4.89	4.94	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	13	39	183	40	29	2	87%	2.6	21.9%	15.8%	6.0%	1.1%	4.89	3.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TOR	9	9	52	220	41	37	6	100%	5.8	18.8%	16.8%	2.0%	2.9%	5.62	5.62	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	54	227	46	33	7	100%	5.4	20.1%	14.6%	5.5%	2.9%	5.33	5.22	-0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	54	230	48	30	7	100%	6.0	20.9%	13.2%	7.7%	2.9%	5.09	4.97	-0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	54	230	49	30	7	100%	6.0	21.2%	13.0%	8.2%	2.9%	4.97	4.92	-0.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	54	226	48	29	7	100%	6.0	21.2%	12.9%	8.3%	2.9%	4.94	4.94	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	4	4	23	97	20	14	3	100%	5.8	20.1%	14.6%	5.5%	2.9%	5.33	5.22	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	36	152	32	20	4	100%	6.0	20.9%	13.2%	7.7%	2.9%	5.09	4.97	-0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	TOR	7	7	43	182	38	24	5	100%	6.1	21.2%	13.0%	8.2%	2.9%	4.97	4.92	-0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	46	194	41	25	6	100%	5.8	21.2%	12.9%	8.3%	2.9%	4.94	4.94	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		25	25	148	624	131	83	18	100%	5.9	21.0%	13.3%	7.7%	2.9%	5.05	4.60	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	177	112	24	100%	5.9	21.0%	13.3%	7.7%	2.9%	5.05	4.60	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		28	26	66	299	57	52	3	93%	2.4	19.0%	17.5%	1.5%	1.1%	5.59	4.32	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	79	200	906	172	159	10	93%	2.4	19.0%	17.5%	1.5%	1.1%	5.59	4.32	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Barriera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.62	18.8%	16.8%	2.9%	—	5.04	20.7%	7.2%	162	-0.58	—	—	—
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	87
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	87
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	81
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	76
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	75
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	74
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	73
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	72
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	71
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2023 · 5.99 FIP	21	SP-	5.99	13.6%	16.7%	3.5%	.209	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	128	70
Christian Oppor L 2024 · 4.57 FIP	20	SP-	4.57	18.4%	20.6%	0.8%	.389	4.94	21.1%	0.8%	123	+0.37	3.96	161	69
Jhordany Mezquita L 2021 · 5.16 FIP	23	SP-	5.16	17.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.321	5.10	22.4%	14.0%	14	-0.06	3.02	223	69
Jordan Woods L 2024 · 4.51 FIP	20	SP	4.51	20.5%	10.3%	3.3%	.329	4.18	20.5%	8.3%	139	-0.33	3.92	170	68
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	68
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.71	20.2%	9.3%	258	-0.68	4.12	463	68
Gabriel Castellanos L 2016 · 4.49 FIP	22	SP	4.49	15.5%	13.7%	1.8%	.348	3.41	15.3%	2.7%	26	-1.08	3.41	108	67
Anthony Solometo L 2024 · 5.77 FIP	21	SP	5.77	13.9%	14.3%	3.7%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	217	67
Neal Cotts L 2003 · 5.79 FIP	23	SP	5.79	14.5%	24.6%	1.5%	.341	4.30	20.5%	11.4%	180	-1.49	2.08	536	67
Pablo Aldonis L 2023 · 4.44 FIP	21	SP	4.44	18.7%	15.6%	1.7%	.240	3.01	21.7%	12.9%	75	-1.43	1.89	135	66
Brooks Gosswein L 2022 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP	5.13	14.7%	14.8%	2.5%	.328	5.61	15.2%	-2.7%	66	+0.48	5.13	165	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	54	20.5%	14.1%	1.12	5.19
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*