Nestor Rios

C Beloit Sky Carp

Age 22 R/R 6'0" / 175 lbs A+ HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	20	A+MIA	23	.105/.190/.105	0	0	-33	—	.105/.190/.105
2026	21	A+MIA	17	.000/.235/.000	0	1	-27	—	.000/.176/.000
2027PROJ0% MLB	22	MLBMIA	127	.177/.255/.246	1	2	45	-0.1
2028PROJ35% MLB	23	MLBMIA	39	.176/.255/.247	0	1	49	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsMaikol Escotto (age 22) · Arturo De Freitas (age 22) · Fabian Pertuz (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj PA

wRC+†45

AVG/OBP/SLG.175 / .253 / .244

PA38

HR0

K%38

BB%7

ISO70

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	123	109	22	5	0	1	6	32	7	0	1	202	287	275	562	73	273	26	5	263	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	15	15	1	0	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	67	67	67	133		167	60	0	60	-103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	23	19	2	0	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	105	190	105	296		182	39	9	139	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	17	13	0	0	0	0	2	9	2	1	0		235		235			53	12	169	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	123	111	14	3	0	0	4	38	7	0	1	126	205	153	358	27	182	31	3	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	15	15	0	0	0	0	0	13	0	0	0						140	87	0	16	-103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	23	19	2	0	0	0	2	12	0	0	0	105	190	105	296		169	52	9	120	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	17	14	0	0	0	0	1	11	2	1	0		176		176			65	6	128	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	123	111	14	3	0	0	4	38	7	0	1	126	205	153	358	27	189	31	3	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	123	109	22	5	0	1	6	32	7	0	1	202	287	275	562	73	273	26	5	263	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	15	15	0	0	0	0	0	13	0	0	0							87	0	16	-103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	—	15	15	1	0	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	67	67	67	133		167	60	0	60	-103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	23	19	2	0	0	0	2	12	0	0	0	105	190	105	296		250	52	9	120	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	—	23	19	2	0	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	105	190	105	296		182	39	9	139	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	17	14	0	0	0	0	1	11	2	1	0		176		176			65	6	128	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	—	17	13	0	0	0	0	2	9	2	1	0		235		235			53	12	169	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	123	111	14	3	0	0	4	38	7	0	1	126	205	153	358	27	182	31	3	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	15	15	0	0	0	0	0	13	0	0	0						140	87	0	16	-103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	23	21	2	0	0	0	2	12	0	0	0	95	190	95	286		169	52	9	120	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	17	14	0	0	0	0	1	11	2	1	0		176		176			65	6	128	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	23	21	2	0	0	0	2	12	0	0	0	95	190	95	286		169	52	9	120	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	17	14	0	0	0	0	1	11	2	1	0		176		176			65	6	128	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIA	0%	127	114	20	3	1	1	9	48	3	2	1	177	255	246	501	70	288	38	7	234	45	-8	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIA	35%	114	103	19	3	1	1	8	42	2	2	1	181	260	258	517	76	289	37	7	240	49	-7	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIA	35%	39	35	6	1	0	0	3	14	1	1	0	176	255	247	502	71	281	36	8	234	49	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	39	35	6	1	0	0	3	14	1	1	0	171	256	200	456	29	286	36	8	234	14	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	100	17	0	0	50	233	17	17	0	172	257	201	458	29	286	36	8	234	14	-40	+3	+0	+12	+14	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	330	296	41	7	1	1	18	130	12	4	2	139	218	179	397	41	238	39	5	189	14	-9	+0	+0	+3	+3	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	81	14	2	2	35	256	24	8	4	139	218	180	398	41	239	39	5	189	14	-40	+1	+0	+12	+14	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nestor Rios (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	175/253/244	69	288	0	1	38%	7%	45	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Maikol Escotto 2024 · A	22	35	41→45	47→50	35	179/230/275	96	276	10	12	38%	5%	42	-2.9	190/232/297	107	275	12	16	34%	4%	47	-2.5	179/219/283	104	251	14	22	34%	4%	37	-1.4
✕Arturo De Freitas 2023 · A	22	35	39→40	45→40	34	175/221/253	78	272	7	4	37%	5%	32	-3.6	185/240/265	80	303	8	5	39%	6%	43	-2.8	138/183/216	78	244	10	0	46%	5%	8	-1.0
✕Fabian Pertuz 2023 · A	22	39→36	40	49→55	34	191/235/284	93	286	8	9	35%	4%	45	-2.7	178/229/269	91	272	8	12	36%	5%	40	-3.1	151/206/232	81	230	8	13	37%	5%	21	-2.3
✕Cadyn Grenier 2019 · A	22	41→38	39→40	48→50	36	192/247/284	92	313	5	8	38%	6%	49	-2.4	192/263/290	98	321	8	8	39%	8%	58	-1.7	178/263/269	91	284	7	11	36%	9%	52	-1.6
✕Justin Twine 2018 · A	22	37→33	37→40	47→50	31	179/219/250	71	280	4	7	37%	3%	31	-3.7	213/252/298	85	304	6	10	30%	4%	54	-2.0	216/252/305	89	320	6	14	33%	3%	54	-1.1
✕Chris Okey 2018 · A	23	34	38→45	48→40	35	169/226/242	74	276	6	5	39%	6%	32	-3.6	182/235/282	100	271	11	4	35%	6%	45	-2.7	209/261/309	100	290	9	2	30%	5%	58	-0.5
✕Chuck Moorman 2016 · A	22	36	39→40	44→30	32	178/229/260	82	291	7	5	40%	5%	38	-3.2	191/228/268	77	268	5	3	30%	4%	38	-3.2	183/221/256	73	257	5	0	30%	4%	30	-1.8
✕Lizandro Espinoza 2024 · A	21	31→24	39→45	47→60	38	161/223/240	80	247	7	10	36%	6%	31	-3.7	167/231/270	103	253	11	20	37%	7%	42	-2.9	159/229/271	111	233	12	30	36%	7%	39	-1.8
✕Misael Urbina 2024 · A	22	35→32	39→40	47→50	44	172/248/261	89	251	6	9	32%	8%	46	-2.6	189/269/280	91	269	6	9	29%	9%	58	-1.7	182/269/271	88	253	6	9	28%	10%	53	-1.1
✕David Masters 2015 · A	22	39→37	36→45	47→40	40	185/251/253	68	279	3	8	33%	7%	45	-2.7	179/238/249	70	242	6	4	27%	6%	38	-3.2	187/256/313	125	256	16	1	32%	7%	58	-0.7
✕Julio Carrion 2021 · A	22	39	38→40	50→45	38	186/254/264	79	299	6	6	38%	7%	49	-2.4	181/257/264	83	307	7	5	40%	7%	51	-2.3	157/235/235	78	282	8	3	44%	7%	34	-1.3
✕Jose Izarra 2024 · A	22	40→33	39→40	49→50	34	181/247/264	83	326	7	8	44%	6%	46	-2.6	184/256/269	85	312	7	11	40%	8%	51	-2.3	163/241/233	70	252	5	16	34%	8%	35	-1.4
✕Dale Burdick 2017 · A	21	38	39→45	49→50	38	178/248/267	88	297	5	7	39%	7%	47	-2.5	179/255/275	96	316	7	8	42%	8%	51	-2.2	146/235/239	93	260	8	8	43%	9%	33	-1.3
✕Sean McLain 2023 · A	22	43→34	40	51→50	39	201/272/291	90	311	8	13	36%	7%	61	-1.5	185/259/275	90	279	8	9	34%	7%	53	-2.1	168/248/254	86	250	8	11	33%	7%	42	-1.7
✕Eduardo Garcia 2024 · A	22	38	41→40	52→55	30	181/228/275	94	314	9	11	44%	5%	40	-3.0	186/245/280	94	299	8	19	38%	5%	49	-2.4	178/244/268	90	277	9	24	37%	6%	44	-1.9
✕Juan Zabala 2021 · A	22	40	39→40	48→50	37	189/252/274	85	299	6	6	37%	6%	50	-2.3	213/274/306	93	302	8	13	30%	7%	65	-1.2	205/266/287	81	283	8	16	29%	7%	55	-0.8
✕Will Banfield 2022 · A	22	32→37	41→50	48→30	34	165/219/258	92	266	9	4	40%	6%	33	-3.6	196/234/319	123	268	14	3	32%	4%	53	-2.1	196/236/312	116	270	13	1	32%	4%	50	-1.4
✕Sammy Infante 2024 · A	23	37→26	42→45	50→55	37	183/252/282	99	292	10	15	39%	7%	52	-2.2	200/263/295	95	313	8	15	36%	7%	59	-1.7	164/228/246	82	264	6	18	38%	6%	32	-0.9
✕Ryan Scott 2017 · A	22	33	36→40	47→30	36	159/226/223	64	286	4	5	43%	7%	28	-3.9	165/233/228	63	271	4	4	37%	7%	32	-3.6	132/213/189	57	213	5	2	38%	8%	15	-1.5
✕Caleb Hamilton 2017 · A	22	39	38→45	48→45	44	183/266/267	84	289	5	5	36%	9%	54	-2.0	177/255/278	101	266	8	5	34%	9%	52	-2.2	140/232/254	115	204	16	3	39%	10%	37	-1.0