Justin Twine
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | AA/A+MIA | 365 | .290/.331/.426 | 7 | 13 | 78 | — | .255/.290/.372 |
| 2019 | 23 | AAMIA | 392 | .240/.298/.304 | 1 | 6 | 37 | — | .201/.244/.258 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAAMIA | 247 | .229/.267/.372 | 5 | 12 | 42 | — | .193/.226/.305 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 18 | ROK | GCL Marlins | — | 179 | 166 | 38 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 52 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 229 | 285 | 355 | 640 | 127 | 327 | 29 | 3 | 288 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 473 | 451 | 93 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 108 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 206 | 237 | 310 | 547 | 104 | 253 | 23 | 1 | 243 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 386 | 353 | 88 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 116 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 249 | 310 | 334 | 644 | 85 | 360 | 30 | 5 | 293 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 126 | 120 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 242 | 278 | 333 | 611 | 92 | 311 | 23 | 2 | 275 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 276 | 248 | 46 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 76 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 185 | 255 | 286 | 541 | 101 | 249 | 28 | 7 | 244 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 121 | 112 | 45 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 402 | 437 | 571 | 1.008 | 170 | 477 | 19 | 2 | 439 | 152 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 244 | 226 | 53 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 54 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 235 | 279 | 354 | 633 | 119 | 291 | 22 | 4 | 279 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 392 | 359 | 86 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 93 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 240 | 298 | 304 | 602 | 64 | 317 | 24 | 6 | 274 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 247 | 231 | 53 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 97 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 229 | 267 | 372 | 640 | 143 | 361 | 39 | 2 | 280 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Marlins | — | 179 | 168 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 75 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 155 | 207 | 238 | 445 | 83 | 262 | 42 | 2 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | A MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 473 | 453 | 78 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 150 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 172 | 200 | 247 | 448 | 75 | 239 | 32 | 1 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 386 | 359 | 67 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 165 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 187 | 240 | 248 | 487 | 61 | 325 | 43 | 3 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 126 | 122 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 41 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 189 | 214 | 270 | 485 | 82 | 271 | 33 | 1 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 276 | 254 | 38 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 100 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 150 | 203 | 220 | 423 | 71 | 226 | 36 | 4 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 121 | 113 | 42 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 372 | 403 | 522 | 925 | 150 | 449 | 22 | 2 | 393 | 152 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 244 | 229 | 45 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 76 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 197 | 233 | 297 | 530 | 100 | 268 | 31 | 3 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 392 | 368 | 74 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 113 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 201 | 244 | 258 | 502 | 57 | 280 | 29 | 4 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 247 | 233 | 45 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 118 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 193 | 226 | 305 | 531 | 112 | 350 | 48 | 2 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Marlins | — | 179 | 168 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 75 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 155 | 207 | 238 | 445 | 83 | 272 | 42 | 2 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Marlins | — | 179 | 166 | 38 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 52 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 229 | 285 | 355 | 640 | 127 | 327 | 29 | 3 | 288 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | A MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 473 | 453 | 78 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 150 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 172 | 200 | 247 | 448 | 75 | 244 | 32 | 1 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | A RAW | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 473 | 451 | 93 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 108 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 206 | 237 | 310 | 547 | 104 | 253 | 23 | 1 | 243 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 386 | 359 | 67 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 165 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 187 | 240 | 248 | 487 | 61 | 335 | 43 | 3 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A RAW | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 386 | 353 | 88 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 116 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 249 | 310 | 334 | 644 | 85 | 360 | 30 | 5 | 293 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 402 | 376 | 62 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 142 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 165 | 209 | 239 | 448 | 74 | 251 | 35 | 3 | 194 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 402 | 368 | 75 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 105 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 204 | 262 | 302 | 564 | 98 | 270 | 26 | 5 | 254 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 365 | 342 | 87 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 103 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 254 | 290 | 368 | 658 | 114 | 342 | 28 | 2 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 365 | 338 | 98 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 77 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 290 | 331 | 426 | 758 | 136 | 353 | 21 | 4 | 332 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 392 | 368 | 74 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 113 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 201 | 244 | 258 | 502 | 57 | 284 | 29 | 4 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA RAW | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 392 | 359 | 86 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 93 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 240 | 298 | 304 | 602 | 64 | 317 | 24 | 6 | 274 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 247 | 233 | 45 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 118 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 193 | 226 | 305 | 531 | 112 | 357 | 48 | 2 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA RAW | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 247 | 231 | 53 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 97 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 229 | 267 | 372 | 640 | 143 | 361 | 39 | 2 | 280 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Marlins | — | 179 | 166 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 75 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 157 | 207 | 241 | 448 | 84 | 262 | 42 | 2 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | A MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 473 | 454 | 78 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 150 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 172 | 200 | 247 | 447 | 75 | 239 | 32 | 1 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 386 | 358 | 67 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 165 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 187 | 240 | 249 | 488 | 61 | 325 | 43 | 3 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 402 | 378 | 62 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 142 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 164 | 209 | 238 | 447 | 74 | 240 | 35 | 3 | 194 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 365 | 345 | 87 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 103 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 252 | 290 | 365 | 655 | 113 | 328 | 28 | 2 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 392 | 368 | 74 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 113 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 201 | 244 | 258 | 502 | 57 | 280 | 29 | 4 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 247 | 235 | 45 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 118 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 191 | 226 | 302 | 528 | 111 | 350 | 48 | 2 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2444 | 2299 | 439 | 73 | 24 | 21 | 62 | 866 | 59 | 59 | 26 | 191 | 231 | 271 | 502 | 80 | 292 | 35 | 3 | 218 | 33 | -193 | +1 | +0 | +26 | +53 | -11.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 611 | 116 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 230 | 16 | 16 | 7 | 190 | 230 | 270 | 500 | 80 | 289 | 35 | 2 | 218 | 33 | -51 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -3.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 247 PAwOBA .276 → .231 (−45)K% 39.3% → 47.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.27% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 47.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.43% | ÷0.994 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 1.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.43% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.37% | ÷0.971 | ×0.930 | ×1.033 | ×1.018 | 25.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.46% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | ×1.033 | ×1.018 | 6.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.99% | ÷1.109 | ×0.920 | ×1.033 | ×1.018 | 2.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.73% | ÷0.886 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 3.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 94, 2B 87, 3B 122, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .276 → .231; ISO .143 → .109; BABIP .361 → .350. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 392 PAwOBA .267 → .223 (−44)K% 23.7% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.72% | ÷1.007 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.61% | ÷1.015 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 3.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.53% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.94% | ÷1.008 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 22.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.51% | ÷0.975 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 4.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.50% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 1.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.38% | ÷0.918 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.33% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 101, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .267 → .223; ISO .064 → .057; BABIP .317 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 244 PAwOBA .273 → .231 (−41)K% 22.1% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.13% | ÷1.009 | ×1.420 | — | — | 31.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.69% | ÷0.967 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 2.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.64% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.51% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.018 | ×0.998 | 19.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.65% | ÷0.903 | ×0.960 | ×1.018 | ×0.998 | 5.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.91% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.018 | ×0.998 | 2.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.74% | ÷0.850 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 1.80% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 104, 2B 80, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .273 → .231; ISO .119 → .102; BABIP .291 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 121 PAwOBA .430 → .393 (−37)K% 19.0% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.01% | ÷1.052 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.48% | ÷1.122 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 1.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.31% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 2.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 39.33% | ÷1.050 | ×0.920 | ×1.030 | ×1.027 | 36.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.62% | ÷0.875 | ×0.910 | ×1.030 | ×1.027 | 6.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.12% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.030 | ×1.027 | 1.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.49% | ÷1.041 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.55% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 110, 2B 75, 3B 80, K 110, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .430 → .393; ISO .170 → .152; BABIP .477 → .449. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AGreensboro Grasshoppers · 276 PAwOBA .241 → .189 (−52)K% 27.5% → 36.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.54% | ÷1.013 | ×1.340 | — | — | 36.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.52% | ÷0.991 | ×0.660 | — | — | 4.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.81% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 1.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.60% | ÷0.994 | ×0.920 | ×1.028 | — | 17.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.49% | ÷1.066 | ×0.820 | ×1.028 | — | 2.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.91% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.028 | — | 2.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.74% | ÷1.168 | ×0.820 | — | — | 1.22% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 99, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .241 → .189; ISO .101 → .073; BABIP .249 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 126 PAwOBA .261 → .206 (−56)K% 23.0% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.02% | ÷0.995 | ×1.420 | — | — | 32.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.79% | ÷0.947 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 0.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.38% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 2.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.046 | ×0.920 | ×0.984 | ×1.012 | 20.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.59% | ÷1.094 | ×0.960 | ×0.984 | ×1.012 | 5.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.10% | ÷1.131 | ×0.810 | ×0.984 | ×1.012 | 0.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.10% | ÷0.944 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.04% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 109, 2B 119, 3B 126, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .261 → .206; ISO .092 → .070; BABIP .311 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AGreensboro Grasshoppers · 386 PAwOBA .287 → .211 (−75)K% 30.1% → 42.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.05% | ÷0.943 | ×1.340 | — | — | 42.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.92% | ÷0.982 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 3.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.11% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 2.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.85% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.991 | ×1.015 | 25.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.17% | ÷0.976 | ×0.820 | ×0.991 | ×1.015 | 6.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.84% | ÷1.042 | ×0.940 | ×0.991 | ×1.015 | 0.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.27% | ÷1.378 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 0.76% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 100, 2B 95, 3B 108, K 89, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .287 → .211; ISO .085 → .056; BABIP .360 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AGreensboro Grasshoppers · 473 PAwOBA .239 → .192 (−46)K% 22.8% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.83% | ÷0.962 | ×1.340 | — | — | 31.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.27% | ÷0.973 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.030 | 0.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.54% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.030 | 2.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.37% | ÷1.006 | ×0.920 | ×1.036 | ×1.030 | 17.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.83% | ÷1.014 | ×0.820 | ×1.036 | ×1.030 | 5.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.87% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.036 | ×1.030 | 0.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.391 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.030 | 1.24% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 178, 1B 101, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 92, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .239 → .192; ISO .104 → .073; BABIP .253 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).