Brody Brecht

P Spokane Indians

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 235 lbs A+ peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #459

Scout OFP49ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	20	20	61	2.51	2.13	36.1%	13.3%	—	K 27.2% · BB 15.9% · FIP 3.52
2026	23	A+COL	7	7	21	5.23	2.28	34.4%	16.7%	—	K 26.5% · BB 19.2% · FIP 3.29
2027PROJ	24	MLBCOL	10	10	57	4.90	4.90	27.4%	17.8%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBCOL	4	4	25	4.73	4.65	27.4%	15.7%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBCOL	6	6	38	4.64	4.60	27.3%	15.2%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff53Control42Command34FB velo61

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 86%

CompsLuis Quiñones (age 24) · Aaron Hernandez (age 24) · Griff McGarry (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%27.4%

BB%17.8%

K-BB%9.6%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL—45

CMD2035

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	61	263	95	35	2	100%	3.0	27.2%	15.9%	11.2%	1.3%	2.51	3.52	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	61	263	95	35	2	100%	3.0	27.2%	15.9%	11.2%	1.3%	2.51	3.52	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	61	263	95	35	2	100%	3.0	36.1%	13.3%	22.8%	0.8%	2.51	2.13	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	7	7	21	90	31	15	0	100%	3.0	26.5%	19.2%	7.4%	0.0%	5.23	3.29	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	7	7	21	90	31	15	0	100%	3.0	26.5%	19.2%	7.4%	0.0%	5.23	3.29	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	7	7	21	90	31	15	0	100%	3.0	34.4%	16.7%	17.8%	0.0%	5.23	2.28	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	COL	10	10	57	241	66	43	6	100%	5.7	27.4%	17.8%	9.6%	2.7%	4.90	4.90	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	COL	10	10	58	244	67	38	7	100%	5.8	27.4%	15.7%	11.7%	2.7%	4.73	4.65	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	COL	10	10	58	244	67	37	7	100%	5.8	27.3%	15.2%	12.1%	2.7%	4.64	4.60	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	COL	9	9	57	240	65	36	7	100%	6.3	27.1%	15.0%	12.1%	2.8%	4.63	4.62	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	COL	4	4	25	106	29	17	3	100%	6.2	27.4%	15.7%	11.7%	2.7%	4.73	4.65	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	COL	6	6	38	160	44	24	4	100%	6.3	27.3%	15.2%	12.1%	2.7%	4.64	4.60	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	COL	7	7	44	186	50	28	5	100%	6.3	27.1%	15.0%	12.1%	2.8%	4.63	4.62	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	18	107	453	123	69	12	100%	6.0	27.2%	15.2%	12.0%	2.8%	4.66	4.24	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	229	129	22	100%	6.0	27.2%	15.2%	12.0%	2.8%	4.66	4.24	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		27	27	82	353	95	59	3	100%	3.0	27.0%	16.8%	10.2%	0.9%	3.20	3.46	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	66	200	864	233	145	8	100%	3.0	27.0%	16.8%	10.2%	0.9%	3.20	3.46	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brody Brecht (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	27.4%	17.8%	2.7%	—	4.62	27.3%	12.0%	172	-0.28	—	—	—
Luis Quiñones R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	24	SP	4.82	26.6%	21.5%	2.2%	.290	4.79	22.7%	9.3%	231	-0.03	3.69	326	75
Aaron Hernandez R 2021 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP	4.65	20.9%	16.4%	2.2%	.329	5.36	18.8%	5.8%	59	+0.71	4.65	194	72
Griff McGarry R 2023 · 4.17 FIP	24	SP	4.17	25.9%	17.1%	2.0%	.231	4.33	25.6%	5.9%	134	+0.16	2.46	282	71
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	70
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	70
Braden Nett R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	22	SP	4.15	20.3%	15.2%	1.5%	.287	4.60	19.8%	5.7%	142	+0.45	3.91	243	70
Peter Heubeck R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	22	SP	4.08	23.0%	19.1%	0.9%	.267	5.18	22.4%	6.8%	86	+1.10	4.08	294	69
Alex McFarlane R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP	4.91	21.9%	19.2%	2.2%	.344	3.91	21.3%	8.0%	128	-1.00	3.47	179	69
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	69
Ryan Jensen R 2022 · 4.87 FIP	24	SP	4.87	18.8%	16.6%	2.3%	.252	4.34	23.7%	6.6%	150	-0.53	3.92	311	68
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	68
Jackson Fristoe R 2024 · 4.81 FIP	23	SP	4.81	18.8%	19.6%	1.5%	.266	6.79	13.5%	-4.0%	74	+1.98	4.81	139	68
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	67
Dane Acker R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.3%	14.1%	2.7%	.229	4.39	19.5%	8.5%	164	-0.16	4.29	257	67
Ryan Costeiu R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	20.5%	13.6%	2.3%	.208	4.91	18.4%	7.9%	241	+0.56	4.34	397	66
Ryan Harvey R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	18.4%	15.9%	0.9%	.291	4.74	16.2%	7.8%	56	+0.66	4.08	133	66
Shane Davis R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP	4.19	20.9%	14.2%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	129	65
Shawn Hill R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP	4.26	19.6%	13.7%	2.0%	.450	3.70	14.5%	8.6%	134	-0.56	2.96	239	65
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	65
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	57	27.3%	15.9%	1.06	4.72
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Matt Mantei ('05)	1.6	54	28.0%	14.1%	0.84	4.07
Kyle Barraclough ('23)	1.4	56	28.2%	13.9%	0.99	3.86
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Rod Scurry ('80-'88, 5 WAR*)	2.3	58	29.6%*	13.6%*	0.91*	3.67*