Yoel Tejeda Jr. — OGILVIE

Yoel Tejeda Jr. P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 23 RHP 6'8" / 215 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.8 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 61 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

K%18.5%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP62

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$24M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CTRL—45

CMD3560

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.2M
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$16M	+$10M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	87	363	79	27	6	100%	4.8	17.0%	7.7%	9.3%	1.5%	4.03	3.49	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	87	363	79	27	6	100%	4.8	17.0%	7.7%	9.3%	1.5%	4.03	3.49	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	87	363	79	27	6	100%	4.8	21.8%	7.4%	14.3%	1.7%	4.03	3.11	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	26	25	120	519	131	61	12	96%	4.6	19.7%	13.3%	6.4%	2.8%	4.56	4.67	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	26	25	120	519	131	61	12	96%	4.6	19.7%	13.3%	6.4%	2.8%	4.56	4.67	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	WSH	18	17	84	356	100	40	4	94%	4.7	28.1%	11.2%	16.9%	1.1%	3.74	2.77	—
2026	23	AA RAW	WSH	8	8	36	163	31	21	8	100%	4.5	19.0%	12.9%	6.1%	4.9%	6.50	5.82	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	121	510	102	36	14	100%	5.5	20.0%	7.0%	13.0%	2.8%	4.25	4.19	+1.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	122	516	108	36	14	100%	5.8	20.9%	6.9%	14.0%	2.8%	4.17	4.11	+1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	122	516	110	36	14	100%	6.1	21.3%	6.9%	14.4%	2.8%	4.12	4.08	+1.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	120	508	108	36	14	100%	6.0	21.3%	7.0%	14.3%	2.8%	4.12	4.12	+1.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	117	493	104	35	14	100%	6.1	21.2%	7.1%	14.1%	2.9%	4.17	4.21	+1.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	112	471	99	35	15	100%	5.9	20.9%	7.4%	13.6%	3.1%	4.27	4.34	+0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	105	442	91	34	15	100%	6.2	20.6%	7.7%	12.9%	3.3%	4.42	4.52	+0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	98	413	83	33	14	100%	6.1	20.2%	8.0%	12.2%	3.5%	4.60	4.72	+0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	90	382	75	32	14	100%	6.0	19.8%	8.4%	11.3%	3.8%	4.81	4.94	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	52	220	44	15	6	100%	5.8	20.0%	7.0%	13.0%	2.8%	4.25	4.19	+0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	81	342	71	24	9	100%	5.8	20.9%	6.9%	14.0%	2.8%	4.17	4.11	+0.8
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	97	410	87	28	11	100%	6.1	21.3%	6.9%	14.4%	2.8%	4.12	4.08	+0.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	17	17	103	435	93	30	12	100%	6.1	21.3%	7.0%	14.3%	2.8%	4.12	4.12	+1.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	17	17	104	439	93	31	13	100%	6.1	21.2%	7.1%	14.1%	2.9%	4.17	4.21	+0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	17	17	101	426	89	31	13	100%	5.9	20.9%	7.4%	13.6%	3.1%	4.27	4.34	+0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	97	410	84	31	13	100%	6.1	20.6%	7.7%	12.9%	3.3%	4.42	4.52	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	91	384	78	31	13	100%	6.1	20.2%	8.0%	12.2%	3.5%	4.60	4.72	+0.2
2035	32	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	85	359	71	30	13	100%	6.1	19.8%	8.4%	11.3%	3.8%	4.81	4.94	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		136	136	810	3421	710	253	106	100%	6.0	20.7%	7.4%	13.4%	3.1%	4.32	3.98	+8.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	175	62	26	100%	6.0	20.7%	7.4%	13.4%	3.1%	4.32	3.98	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		44	43	207	882	164	97	20	98%	4.7	18.6%	11.0%	7.6%	2.3%	4.34	4.18	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	41	200	851	158	94	20	98%	4.7	18.6%	11.0%	7.6%	2.3%	4.34	4.18	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yoel Tejeda Jr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	18.5%	7.2%	2.8%	—	4.13	20.7%	13.8%	365	-0.22	—	—	—
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	91
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	88
Andrés Machado R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	16.7%	6.7%	2.7%	.350	4.70	17.6%	8.8%	266	+0.68	3.63	530	87
Blake Adams R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	22	SP	3.40	18.6%	7.3%	1.7%	.333	4.00	17.0%	10.5%	306	+0.60	3.36	389	86
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.90	14.7%	5.0%	124	+0.79	3.11	206	86
Chris Clarke R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SP	4.59	15.8%	6.7%	3.6%	.340	3.85	16.2%	9.8%	241	-0.74	3.57	291	85
Chance Kirby R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	17.8%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	5.61	14.2%	6.7%	166	+1.47	4.14	325	84
Cedric De Grandpre R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	21	SP	3.38	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.17	22.9%	8.9%	177	+0.79	3.38	264	84
Connor Staine R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	16.5%	7.9%	2.1%	.343	5.08	17.3%	4.6%	320	+1.22	3.86	414	84
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	84
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.51	14.8%	7.1%	236	+1.31	3.05	420	84
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	84
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	84
Will Ethridge R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	16.8%	5.8%	3.1%	.274	5.54	14.6%	2.8%	129	+1.40	3.57	227	83
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	83
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	83
Seth Shuman R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.48	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.38	3.25	354	83
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	83
Derek Gordon R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP	4.90	15.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.322	4.62	19.9%	10.6%	76	-0.28	4.62	146	82
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	107	20.6%	7.3%	1.17	4.31
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01