Yoel Tejeda Jr.

P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 24 RHP 6'8" / 215 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#813ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	18	18	87	4.03	3.11	21.8%	7.4%	—	K 17.0% · BB 7.7% · FIP 3.49
2026	23	MIX2 levels	26	25	120	4.56	3.74	25.2%	11.8%	—	K 19.7% · BB 13.3% · FIP 4.67
2027PROJ	24	MLBWSH	—	—	0	4.94	4.94	18.9%	11.2%	—
2028PROJ31% MLB	25	MLBWSH	5	5	27	4.78	4.72	19.7%	10.0%	0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	26	MLBWSH	7	7	41	4.69	4.66	20.1%	9.8%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$1.0M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 4.9, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 83%

CompsDavid Griffin (age 25) · Cameron Foster (age 24) · Dylan Burns (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%18.9%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%7.7%

Proj IP74

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	87	363	79	27	6	100%	4.8	17.0%	7.7%	9.3%	1.5%	4.03	3.49	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	87	363	79	27	6	100%	4.8	17.0%	7.7%	9.3%	1.5%	4.03	3.49	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	87	363	79	27	6	100%	4.8	21.8%	7.4%	14.3%	1.7%	4.03	3.11	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	120	519	131	61	12	96%	4.6	19.7%	13.3%	6.4%	2.8%	4.56	4.67	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	120	519	131	61	12	96%	4.6	19.7%	13.3%	6.4%	2.8%	4.56	4.67	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	120	519	131	61	12	96%	4.6	25.2%	11.8%	13.5%	2.3%	4.56	3.74	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.9%	11.2%	7.7%	3.0%	4.94	4.94	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	87	368	72	37	11	100%	5.8	19.7%	10.0%	9.7%	3.0%	4.78	4.72	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	80	339	68	33	10	100%	6.2	20.1%	9.8%	10.3%	3.0%	4.69	4.66	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	76	323	65	32	10	100%	5.9	20.2%	9.8%	10.4%	3.0%	4.68	4.68	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	72	305	61	30	10	100%	6.0	20.1%	9.9%	10.2%	3.1%	4.72	4.75	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	67	283	56	29	9	100%	6.1	19.8%	10.1%	9.7%	3.3%	4.82	4.88	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	10	10	61	256	50	27	9	100%	6.1	19.5%	10.4%	9.1%	3.5%	4.97	5.06	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	5	5	27	114	22	11	3	100%	5.4	19.7%	10.0%	9.7%	3.0%	4.78	4.72	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	41	173	35	17	5	100%	5.9	20.1%	9.8%	10.3%	3.0%	4.69	4.66	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	48	203	41	20	6	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.8%	10.4%	3.0%	4.68	4.68	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	52	220	44	22	7	100%	5.8	20.1%	9.9%	10.2%	3.1%	4.72	4.75	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	52	220	44	22	7	100%	5.8	19.8%	10.1%	9.7%	3.3%	4.82	4.88	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	49	207	40	22	7	100%	6.1	19.5%	10.4%	9.1%	3.5%	4.97	5.06	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	45	269	1136	226	114	36	100%	6.0	19.9%	10.0%	9.9%	3.2%	4.78	4.42	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	168	85	27	100%	6.0	19.9%	10.0%	9.9%	3.2%	4.78	4.42	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		44	43	207	882	164	97	20	98%	4.7	18.6%	11.0%	7.6%	2.3%	4.34	4.18	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	41	200	851	158	94	20	98%	4.7	18.6%	11.0%	7.6%	2.3%	4.34	4.18	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 84 IPFIP 2.77 → 3.68 (+0.91)K% 28.1% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.09%	—	×0.770	21.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.24%	—	×1.150	12.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.40%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.77 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 36 IPFIP 5.82 → 6.83 (+1.01)K% 19.0% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.02%	—	×0.810	15.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.88%	—	×1.100	14.17%
HR / BF /BF	4.91%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.89%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.82 → 6.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFredericksburg Nationals · 79 IPFIP 2.67 → 3.49 (+0.82)K% 22.9% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.91%	—	×0.740	16.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.50%	—	×1.180	7.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.24%	÷1.040	×1.300	1.55%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 2.67 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 8 IPFIP 6.69 → 8.02 (+1.33)K% 12.5% → 9.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.50%	—	×0.770	9.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.00%	—	×1.150	17.25%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷0.967	×1.250	6.46%

Result: FIP 6.69 → 8.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yoel Tejeda Jr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.69	20.0%	10.1%	244	-0.25	—	—	—
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	92
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	91
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	90
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	88
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	87
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	86
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	85
Aaron Heilman R 2003 · 5.57 FIP	24	SP	5.57	16.2%	12.4%	4.1%	.311	3.13	22.0%	14.1%	223	-2.44	2.76	630	85
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.31	18.5%	11.5%	428	+0.01	3.24	669	85
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	85
Bud Norris R 2009 · 4.47 FIP	24	SP	4.47	21.7%	9.6%	3.6%	.309	4.01	22.5%	13.5%	508	-0.46	3.51	1,221	84
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.94	17.7%	8.7%	323	+0.33	4.32	416	84
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	83
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	83
Micah Ottenbreit R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	21	SP	4.33	17.9%	11.8%	2.3%	.305	3.42	17.7%	8.4%	47	-0.91	3.04	141	83
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	83
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	83
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP	4.41	17.7%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.25	21.0%	10.6%	135	+0.84	1.49	373	83
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	83
Ricky Salinas R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	15.8%	10.5%	3.0%	.297	5.42	17.7%	5.1%	146	+0.65	4.77	274	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	74	19.8%	10.2%	1.20	4.79
Bobby Ayala ('99)	2.9	72	21.3%	9.7%	1.11	4.78
Fred Scherman ('69-'76, 1 WAR*)	2.7	77	18.0%*	10.0%*	1.17*	4.29*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*
Vladimir Nunez ('09)	2.2	74	17.0%	10.3%	1.12	4.83