Colby Shelton

2B Birmingham Barons

Age 24 L/R 6'0" / 205 lbs AA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	ACWS	115	.141/.248/.172	1	4	-4	—	.117/.195/.146
2026	23	AACWS	394	.213/.296/.432	17	8	62	—	.184/.245/.365
2026	23	A+CWS	140	.339/.468/.661	7	6	137	—	.260/.345/.504
2027PROJ2% MLB	24	MLBCWS	6	.217/.280/.393	0	0	86	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBCWS	160	.219/.283/.396	6	3	88	0.2
2029PROJ62% MLB	26	MLBCWS	254	.220/.285/.396	9	5	89	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.6M2034Arb-2$0.4M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

ISO81

Z-Con%59

Chase%54

K%49

Speed47

wRC+41

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 86%

CompsAustin Wells (age 25) · Nathan Hickey (age 24) · Jace Jung (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†86

AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .280 / .393

PA6

HR0

K%33

BB%7

BABIP268

ISO175

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 37 / POW 49

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT37

scouting grade only

POWER49

scouting grade only

EYE46

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	115	99	14	0	0	1	11	25	3	4	2	141	248	172	420	30	173	22	10	206	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	394	347	74	21	2	17	36	98	5	8	4	213	296	432	729	219	242	25	9	318	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	140	112	38	13	1	7	25	26	2	6	1	339	468	661	1.128	321	388	19	18	480	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	42	34	7	0	0	1	5	7	1	0	0	206	325	294	619	88	214	17	12	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	115	103	12	0	0	1	7	34	3	4	2	117	195	146	340	29	153	30	6	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	394	359	66	19	2	14	24	119	5	8	4	184	245	365	610	181	221	30	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	140	123	32	10	1	6	14	34	2	6	1	260	345	504	849	244	310	24	10	371	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	115	103	12	0	0	1	7	34	3	4	2	117	195	146	340	29	157	30	6	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	115	99	14	0	0	1	11	25	3	4	2	141	248	172	420	30	173	22	10	206	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	576	518	107	32	3	22	41	165	8	14	5	207	275	407	682	201	251	29	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA RAW	3 teams	—	576	493	119	34	3	25	66	131	8	14	5	241	340	475	815	233	273	23	11	354	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	115	104	12	0	0	1	7	34	3	4	2	115	195	144	339	29	153	30	6	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	576	522	107	32	3	22	41	165	8	14	5	205	275	404	679	199	244	29	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	115	104	12	0	0	1	7	34	3	4	2	115	195	144	339	29	153	30	6	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	576	522	107	32	3	22	41	165	8	14	5	205	275	404	679	199	244	29	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CWS	2%	380	347	75	17	2	13	26	106	4	7	2	216	279	389	668	174	267	28	7	295	86	-6	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.8
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	CWS	2%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	217	280	393	673	176	268	33	0	297	86	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CWS	43%	370	337	74	17	2	13	26	102	4	7	2	218	282	392	674	175	268	28	7	298	88	-5	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	CWS	62%	407	371	81	18	2	14	29	111	4	7	3	219	284	393	677	174	269	27	7	299	89	-5	+0	+0	+1	+9	0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	CWS	69%	420	381	84	19	2	14	31	114	5	8	3	219	285	391	676	172	270	27	7	299	89	-6	+0	+0	+1	+9	0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	CWS	72%	425	387	85	19	2	14	31	115	4	7	3	219	285	388	673	169	271	27	7	298	88	-6	+0	-1	+2	+9	0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	CWS	72%	420	382	83	18	2	14	31	114	4	6	3	218	284	383	667	165	271	27	7	296	86	-7	+0	-1	+1	+9	0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	CWS	72%	414	377	81	18	2	13	30	114	4	6	3	215	281	376	656	160	269	28	7	292	83	-8	+0	-2	+1	+9	0.0
2034	31	MLB MLE	CWS	72%	401	365	77	17	2	12	29	112	4	4	4	211	276	367	643	155	266	28	7	286	80	-10	-1	-3	+1	+9	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	CWS	43%	160	146	32	7	1	6	11	44	2	3	1	219	283	396	679	177	269	28	7	300	88	-2	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	CWS	62%	254	231	51	12	1	9	18	69	3	5	2	220	285	396	682	176	270	27	7	301	89	-3	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	CWS	69%	289	263	57	13	1	10	21	78	3	5	2	220	286	395	681	174	271	27	7	301	89	-4	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	CWS	72%	307	279	61	14	1	10	22	83	3	5	2	220	286	391	677	171	272	27	7	300	88	-4	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	CWS	72%	303	275	60	13	1	10	22	82	3	4	2	219	285	386	672	167	271	27	7	298	86	-5	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	CWS	72%	298	271	59	13	1	10	22	82	3	4	2	216	282	379	661	163	270	28	7	293	83	-6	+0	-2	+1	+6	0.0
2034	31	MLB CTX	CWS	72%	288	262	55	12	1	9	21	80	3	3	3	213	277	370	647	157	267	28	7	288	80	-7	-1	-2	+1	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1899	1727	375	84	7	64	137	518	20	29	14	217	282	385	667	168	269	27	7	297	83	-32	+0	-5	+7	+41	1.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	128	29	2	22	47	177	7	10	5	217	282	384	666	168	268	27	7	297	83	-11	+0	-2	+2	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	3868	3512	747	172	19	128	277	1070	44	69	30	213	279	382	660	169	265	28	7	291	83	-53	+1	-7	+11	+69	2.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	126	29	3	22	47	180	7	12	5	214	280	385	664	171	265	28	7	291	83	-11	+0	-1	+2	+14	0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Paul DeJonglast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,500 PA	5.3	3,500	146	29	229	294	416	+36	+35	16.1	16.0
/162	664	28	6	+6.8	+6.6	3.1	pk7: 16
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Kevin Elster'86-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,225 PA	4.9	3,225	88	14	223*	294*	388*	+34	+9	7.9	8.1
/162	664	18	3	+7.0	+1.9	1.6	pk7: 8
#5Don Zimmer'54-'65 * career totals — 10 seasons, 3,593 PA	5.4	3,593	91	45	231*	287*	380*	+22	+22	5.2	6.4
/162	664	17	8	+4.0	+4.1	1.0	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.9	1,906	62	29	218	280	385	+20	+15	4.1	4.1
/162	664	22	10	+7.1	+5.2	1.4	pk7: 4
#6Lena Blackburne'10-'27 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,086 PA	3.1	2,086	4	54	215*	288*	334*	+13	+11	2.0	2.0
/162	664	1	17	+4.2	+3.4	0.6	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colby Shelton (OGILVIE)	24	37	49	50	46	214/277/386	172	267	11	6	28%	7%	86	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Austin Wells 2024 · MLB	25	41→44	52→55	53→50	46	216/288/382	166	271	20	11	28%	8%	88	+0.5	215/292/383	168	259	21	6	25%	9%	91	+0.6	205/292/372	167	241	22	5	25%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Nathan Hickey 2024 · AA	24	42→40	53→50	47→40	46	216/296/388	172	293	21	4	33%	9%	93	+0.8	192/272/328	136	276	15	4	34%	9%	70	-0.8	173/257/299	126	247	13	3	34%	10%	56	-1.3
✕Jace Jung 2024 · AA	23	43→44	52→50	48→40	48	220/300/383	163	290	20	5	30%	9%	93	+0.8	216/304/368	152	282	17	4	28%	11%	91	+0.7	205/299/350	146	260	16	3	27%	11%	84	+0.1
●Ryan Schimpf 2013 · AA	25	39→41	51→60	48→45	44	204/278/369	164	273	18	7	31%	8%	82	-0.0	194/271/365	171	248	21	4	30%	8%	79	-0.2	203/284/421	218	238	27	2	28%	8%	96	+0.8
✕Drew Robinson 2017 · AAA	25	39→43	51→55	52→50	45	204/280/371	167	286	19	14	34%	9%	83	+0.1	217/293/379	162	329	18	12	36%	10%	89	+0.5	211/292/367	157	326	17	12	38%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Damiano Palmegiani 2024 · AAA	24	40→42	52→50	52→40	44	210/289/381	170	282	20	6	32%	8%	89	+0.5	191/274/317	126	274	14	4	34%	8%	70	-0.9	163/254/270	107	234	13	1	34%	8%	49	-1.5
✕Christopher Familia 2024 · A	24	40	55	46→45	43	221/282/399	178	261	24	5	26%	6%	91	+0.6	211/265/357	146	300	17	5	34%	6%	74	-0.5	170/218/293	123	253	15	0	38%	4%	38	-0.9
✕Rodolfo Castro 2023 · MLB	24	42	53→55	47→50	42	221/281/392	171	284	21	10	30%	7%	88	+0.4	212/278/350	138	282	17	9	30%	7%	78	-0.3	198/268/323	125	260	15	12	29%	7%	67	-0.8
✕Jared Keel 2009 · A	24	38→37	52→50	48→45	47	205/287/369	164	247	20	10	26%	8%	86	+0.3	203/287/346	143	259	16	7	27%	9%	80	-0.1	178/276/316	138	223	16	1	27%	11%	68	-0.6
✕Andrew Navigato 2023 · AA	25	42→41	48→55	49→50	43	216/280/356	141	266	16	14	26%	6%	80	-0.2	218/276/377	159	279	17	15	28%	6%	83	+0.1	207/267/370	164	270	18	17	30%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Javier Valdes 2023 · AA	24	43	48→55	50→30	46	219/300/358	139	268	17	5	25%	7%	88	+0.5	217/301/360	143	265	16	5	24%	8%	88	+0.5	207/318/364	157	258	17	2	25%	11%	94	+0.4
✕Jeter Downs 2021 · AA	23	43→41	51→50	52→55	45	223/290/390	167	279	19	17	27%	8%	91	+0.7	180/256/301	121	262	15	21	35%	8%	59	-1.7	176/270/315	139	246	15	26	33%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Andy Yerzy 2022 · AA	24	32	50	49→40	42	178/266/325	146	259	19	7	38%	8%	69	-0.9	196/276/333	137	263	16	6	30%	9%	73	-0.6	162/237/266	105	230	13	1	34%	8%	41	-1.1
✕Travis Scott 2009 · A	24	43	49→55	46→40	42	221/276/367	146	289	17	5	29%	7%	80	-0.1	220/272/371	151	280	17	5	27%	6%	80	-0.2	220/274/391	171	267	19	2	25%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Jesús Bastidas 2023 · AA	24	42	49→50	45→50	41	213/282/354	140	287	17	12	31%	7%	80	-0.1	210/279/347	137	276	16	12	29%	6%	77	-0.3	202/274/337	135	264	15	13	29%	6%	70	-0.8
✕Jon Gaston 2011 · AA	24	41→42	52→55	53→50	42	216/276/389	172	281	19	10	30%	7%	85	+0.2	207/252/327	120	282	11	13	30%	5%	61	-1.5	193/225/294	101	262	7	14	28%	3%	40	-2.2
✕Jonny DeLuca 2022 · A	24	40→37	53→60	56→55	45	215/274/388	172	252	21	15	24%	7%	84	+0.2	225/290/408	183	256	22	16	22%	7%	95	+1.0	223/291/402	179	250	21	19	20%	7%	93	+0.5
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2008 · AA	24	36→46	53→55	51→50	42	203/262/373	171	251	22	10	30%	6%	77	-0.3	215/265/375	160	270	19	11	27%	5%	78	-0.3	240/295/408	167	283	19	7	22%	7%	98	+0.8
✕Isan Díaz 2020 · MLB	24	42→43	50→55	45	44	217/288/375	158	293	18	8	32%	8%	87	+0.4	217/289/371	154	288	18	7	30%	8%	86	+0.3	192/269/361	169	236	25	8	31%	9%	74	-0.2
✕Johnny Monell 2011 · AAA	25	45→43	49→50	50→45	44	230/286/379	149	292	16	9	27%	7%	86	+0.3	221/282/357	136	292	14	5	28%	7%	80	-0.1	225/286/348	123	283	13	8	24%	7%	78	-0.2

Colby Shelton

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps