Jackson Ferris

P Oklahoma City Comets

Age 23 LHP 6'4" / 195 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.3 · 2030

Overview

AAAPROSPECTFG #318Pre-ArbFA 2033

Scout OFP50ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	27	27	127	3.20	2.78	27.4%	10.8%	—	K 21.3% · BB 12.2% · FIP 3.59
2025	21	AALAD	26	24	126	3.86	3.46	24.2%	11.8%	—	K 19.6% · BB 13.0% · FIP 4.21
2026	22	AAALAD	24	22	109	5.12	3.48	24.7%	11.2%	—	K 21.2% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.71
2027PROJ	23	MLBLAD	15	15	81	4.45	4.45	20.8%	11.0%	0.4
2028PROJ48% MLB	24	MLBLAD	11	11	64	4.38	4.32	21.4%	9.8%	0.5
2029PROJ69% MLB	25	MLBLAD	17	17	101	4.27	4.21	21.9%	9.1%	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$5M2031Arb-2$8M2032Arb-3$10M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff48Control42Command57FB velo51

Career WAR1 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 22, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 64%

CompsJoe Whitman (age 22) · Pete Hansen (age 23) · Sam Weatherly (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 118

ERA4.45

FIP4.45

K%20.8%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP81

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4550

CTRL4040

CMD4555

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$5M	+1.1	$7M	+$4M
2031	Arb-2	$8M	+1.1	$6M	+$1M
2032	Arb-3	$10M	+1.1	$6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$14M		$25M	+$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	18	18	56	237	77	33	1	100%	3.1	24.0%	16.4%	7.6%	0.6%	3.38	3.47	—
2023	19	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	18	18	56	237	77	33	1	100%	3.1	32.5%	13.9%	18.6%	0.4%	3.38	2.35	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	127	530	145	57	6	100%	4.7	21.3%	12.2%	9.0%	1.3%	3.20	3.59	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	127	530	145	57	6	100%	4.7	21.3%	12.2%	9.0%	1.3%	3.20	3.59	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	127	530	145	57	6	100%	4.7	27.4%	10.8%	16.6%	1.1%	3.20	2.78	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	26	24	126	557	135	66	9	92%	4.8	19.6%	13.0%	6.6%	2.0%	3.86	4.21	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	26	24	126	557	135	66	9	92%	4.8	19.6%	13.0%	6.6%	2.0%	3.86	4.21	—
2025	21	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	26	24	126	557	135	66	9	92%	4.8	24.2%	11.8%	12.4%	1.6%	3.86	3.46	—
2026	22	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	24	22	109	482	119	54	9	92%	4.5	21.2%	10.1%	11.1%	2.1%	5.12	3.71	—
2026	22	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	24	22	109	482	119	54	9	92%	4.5	21.2%	10.1%	11.1%	2.1%	5.12	3.71	—
2026	22	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Comets	24	22	109	482	119	54	9	92%	4.5	24.7%	11.2%	13.5%	1.9%	5.12	3.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	LAD	15	15	81	342	71	38	8	100%	5.4	20.8%	11.0%	9.8%	2.4%	4.45	4.45	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	24	24	132	558	120	55	14	100%	5.5	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	2.4%	4.32	4.26	+1.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	25	25	146	616	135	56	15	100%	5.8	21.9%	9.1%	12.7%	2.5%	4.21	4.15	+1.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	25	25	153	646	142	58	16	100%	6.1	22.1%	9.0%	13.1%	2.5%	4.16	4.13	+1.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	26	26	155	653	144	59	17	100%	5.9	22.1%	9.0%	13.0%	2.6%	4.17	4.17	+1.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAD	26	26	155	653	143	60	17	100%	5.9	21.9%	9.2%	12.7%	2.7%	4.22	4.25	+1.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAD	25	25	148	623	135	59	18	100%	5.9	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	2.8%	4.32	4.39	+0.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAD	23	23	139	586	125	57	18	100%	6.0	21.3%	9.7%	11.6%	3.0%	4.47	4.56	+0.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	LAD	22	22	129	546	114	55	18	100%	5.9	20.9%	10.1%	10.9%	3.2%	4.65	4.77	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	120	505	103	53	18	100%	6.0	20.5%	10.5%	10.0%	3.5%	4.86	4.99	-0.1
2037	33	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	110	463	93	51	17	100%	6.1	20.0%	10.9%	9.1%	3.8%	5.09	5.24	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	64	270	58	27	7	100%	5.8	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	2.6%	4.38	4.32	+0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	17	17	101	426	93	39	11	100%	5.9	21.9%	9.1%	12.7%	2.6%	4.27	4.21	+0.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	21	21	124	524	116	47	14	100%	5.9	22.1%	9.0%	13.1%	2.6%	4.22	4.19	+1.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	22	22	133	562	124	51	15	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.0%	13.0%	2.7%	4.23	4.23	+1.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAD	23	23	139	587	129	54	16	100%	6.0	21.9%	9.2%	12.7%	2.8%	4.28	4.31	+1.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAD	22	22	135	570	124	54	17	100%	6.1	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	2.9%	4.39	4.46	+0.8
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAD	21	21	128	540	115	53	17	100%	6.1	21.3%	9.7%	11.6%	3.1%	4.54	4.63	+0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	LAD	20	20	121	511	107	51	17	100%	6.0	20.9%	10.1%	10.9%	3.4%	4.73	4.85	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	LAD	19	19	114	481	99	50	18	100%	6.0	20.5%	10.5%	10.0%	3.6%	4.94	5.07	-0.1
2037	33	MLB CTX	LAD	17	17	104	439	88	48	17	100%	6.1	20.0%	10.9%	9.1%	3.9%	5.18	5.33	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		195	195	1162	4906	1051	473	148	100%	6.0	21.4%	9.6%	11.8%	3.0%	4.50	4.17	+10.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	181	81	25	100%	6.0	21.4%	9.6%	11.8%	3.0%	4.50	4.17	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		95	91	418	1806	381	225	30	96%	4.4	21.1%	12.5%	8.7%	1.6%	3.92	3.80	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	44	200	865	183	108	14	96%	4.4	21.1%	12.5%	8.7%	1.6%	3.92	3.80	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Ferris (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	20.8%	11.0%	2.4%	—	4.18	21.8%	12.5%	431	-0.27	—	—	—
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	89
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.85	18.0%	10.5%	367	-0.33	3.77	480	87
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	87
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.61	19.4%	5.0%	215	+0.09	3.88	280	86
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	3.99	17.6%	7.2%	171	+0.40	3.59	280	86
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	85
Damon Jones L 2018 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	18.8%	12.2%	1.9%	.321	3.84	25.8%	10.9%	156	-0.28	3.71	269	84
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	84
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	84
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	84
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	84
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	84
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	84
J.C. Romero L 2000 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP	4.58	18.7%	11.2%	3.0%	.356	3.98	18.2%	8.4%	209	-0.60	2.88	652	83
Emmett Olson L 2024 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP	3.88	16.6%	9.3%	1.8%	.290	4.59	16.3%	7.9%	35	+0.71	3.88	147	83
Connelly Early L 2024 · 3.33 FIP	22	SP	3.33	24.1%	9.8%	1.9%	.292	3.28	26.0%	17.0%	214	-0.05	2.52	318	83
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	83
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	83
Zack Erwin L 2017 · 3.44 FIP	23	SP	3.44	17.6%	9.0%	1.3%	.271	3.97	16.2%	9.9%	194	+0.53	2.65	529	82
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.3	133	21.4%	9.7%	1.10	4.42
Jim Bibby ('72-'84, 16 WAR*)	8.6	157	21.9%*	9.8%*	1.05*	4.32*
Bob Weiland ('28-'40, 10 WAR*)	6.9	139	22.6%*	9.9%*	1.15*	4.26*
Jim Beattie ('78-'86, 13 WAR*)	5.7	128	20.7%*	9.4%*	0.88*	4.34*
Erik Bedard ('14)	6.5	130	22.2%	9.5%	0.90	3.99
Jake Arrieta ('21)	8.1	134	21.2%	8.5%	1.01	3.98
Edinson Volquez ('20)	7.7	129	19.5%	10.8%	0.93	4.45