Josh Hansell — OGILVIE

Josh Hansell P Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 215 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.5 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 115

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%18.5%

BB%14.7%

K-BB%3.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CTRL—45

CMD3040

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	2	0	3	12	1	1	0	0%	1.5	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	0.0%	3.00	3.45	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	2	0	3	12	1	1	0	0%	1.5	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	0.0%	3.00	3.45	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	2	0	3	12	1	1	0	0%	1.5	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	0.0%	3.00	3.43	—
2024	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	21	6	64	278	71	38	0	29%	3.1	18.9%	16.1%	2.8%	0.0%	2.52	3.55	—
2024	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	21	6	64	278	71	38	0	29%	3.1	18.9%	16.1%	2.8%	0.0%	2.52	3.55	—
2024	22	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	21	6	64	278	71	38	0	29%	3.1	25.5%	13.7%	11.9%	0.0%	2.52	2.66	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	64	288	65	32	3	100%	4.0	17.0%	12.9%	4.1%	1.3%	3.78	4.01	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	64	288	65	32	3	100%	4.0	17.0%	12.9%	4.1%	1.3%	3.78	4.01	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	64	288	65	32	3	100%	4.0	22.6%	11.1%	11.5%	1.0%	3.78	3.18	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	16	6	41	179	41	25	4	38%	2.5	17.6%	16.1%	1.6%	2.8%	4.87	5.18	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	16	6	41	179	41	25	4	38%	2.5	17.6%	16.1%	1.6%	2.8%	4.87	5.18	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	KC	16	6	41	179	41	25	4	38%	2.5	22.9%	14.0%	8.9%	2.2%	4.87	4.16	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	KC	5	0	6	24	4	4	1	0%	1.1	18.5%	14.7%	3.9%	2.6%	5.18	5.18	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	46	203	45	29	5	—	—	22.4%	14.0%	8.3%	2.3%	4.91	5.18	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	68	287	57	38	7	100%	5.7	20.0%	13.2%	6.8%	2.6%	4.97	4.89	+0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	68	287	60	37	8	100%	6.2	20.8%	12.9%	7.9%	2.6%	4.85	4.79	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	67	283	59	36	8	100%	6.1	21.0%	12.8%	8.2%	2.7%	4.82	4.81	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	65	274	57	35	8	100%	5.9	20.9%	12.9%	8.0%	2.8%	4.85	4.88	+0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	KC	5	5	29	122	25	16	3	100%	5.8	20.0%	13.2%	6.8%	2.4%	4.86	4.78	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	45	190	40	25	5	100%	5.6	20.8%	12.9%	7.9%	2.4%	4.74	4.68	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	52	220	46	28	5	100%	5.8	21.0%	12.8%	8.2%	2.5%	4.71	4.70	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	55	232	49	30	6	100%	6.1	20.9%	12.9%	8.0%	2.6%	4.73	4.76	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		30	30	181	764	159	99	19	100%	6.0	20.8%	12.9%	7.8%	2.5%	4.75	4.35	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	176	109	21	100%	6.0	20.8%	12.9%	7.8%	2.5%	4.75	4.35	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		55	28	172	757	134	112	9	51%	3.1	17.7%	14.8%	2.9%	1.2%	3.55	4.11	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	32	200	879	156	130	10	51%	3.1	17.7%	14.8%	2.9%	1.2%	3.55	4.11	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Hansell (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	18.5%	14.7%	2.6%	—	4.83	20.6%	7.6%	203	-0.35	—	—	—
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	89
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	89
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	84
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	83
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	83
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	82
Cole Percival R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.0%	14.3%	1.6%	.335	4.23	18.6%	8.6%	99	-0.10	3.58	327	81
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	5.00	17.7%	4.6%	131	-0.27	4.34	382	81
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	81
Jonathan Hughes R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SP-	4.60	12.9%	12.5%	1.8%	.351	3.79	16.5%	6.2%	146	-0.81	3.44	219	80
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	80
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	80
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	79
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	79
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	79
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	78
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	78
Holt Jones R 2023 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	16.1%	17.9%	1.9%	.285	4.01	21.7%	7.0%	161	-1.05	3.37	241	77
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	77
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	20.2%	13.3%	1.03	4.93
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04