Josh Hansell
P
Quad Cities River Bandits
+0.3
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'6" / 215 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.5 · 2028
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.0%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%9.7%
IP64
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2028
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Royals | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 21 | 6 | 64 | 278 | 71 | 38 | 0 | 18.9% | 16.1% | 0.0% | 2.52 | 3.55 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 16 | 16 | 64 | 288 | 65 | 32 | 3 | 17.0% | 12.9% | 1.3% | 3.78 | 4.02 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 2 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | 13.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 57 | 31 | 7 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 2.6% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | KC | — | — | 68 | 297 | 62 | 36 | 9 | 20.8% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 5.06 | 4.27 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 59 | 29 | 7 | 21.6% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 4.45 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 60 | 28 | 7 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.40 | 4.37 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 60 | 28 | 7 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 59 | 28 | 7 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 58 | 27 | 7 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.45 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 55 | 27 | 7 | 21.7% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.51 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | KC | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 53 | 26 | 7 | 21.5% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | KC | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 50 | 25 | 7 | 21.2% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | KC | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 47 | 25 | 7 | 20.9% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.71 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | KC | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 44 | 24 | 7 | 20.5% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.81 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | KC | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 41 | 23 | 7 | 20.1% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.92 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | KC | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 37 | 22 | 6 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 5.05 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 41 | 23 | 136 | 604 | 107 | 88 | 6 | 17.8% | 14.6% | 1.0% | 3.45 | 3.97 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 34 | 200 | 890 | 158 | 130 | 9 | 17.8% | 14.6% | 1.0% | 3.45 | 3.97 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Hansell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 2.6% | — | 4.38 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 195 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.78 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .294 | 3.31 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.47 | 2.87 | 223 | 95 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.50 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .290 | 4.91 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 162 | +0.41 | 4.50 | 217 | 94 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 93 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.51 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.1% | .293 | 7.98 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.47 | 4.42 | 155 | 93 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.83 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | -0.03 | 3.40 | 134 | 93 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.00 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.0% | .331 | 4.03 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.03 | 3.31 | 213 | 91 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.58 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.9% | .341 | 4.72 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.14 | 4.04 | 404 | 91 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.73 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 1.9% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 104 | 91 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.65 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 1.8% | .282 | 4.58 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 105 | +0.93 | 2.57 | 304 | 91 |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.42 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .279 | 5.32 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.90 | 4.42 | 239 | 91 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.74 | 22.7% | 13.6% | 1.5% | .270 | 4.00 | 22.6% | 8.2% | 94 | +0.26 | 3.60 | 154 | 90 |
| Trevor Holloway R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.44 | 21.9% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .266 | 4.55 | 17.9% | 6.1% | 43 | +1.11 | 3.44 | 112 | 90 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 89 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.91 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .327 | 4.68 | 22.3% | 12.1% | 127 | -0.23 | 3.38 | 188 | 89 |
| Andrew Politi R 2025 · 3.61 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.61 | 22.6% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .274 | 4.36 | 23.4% | 13.0% | 144 | +0.75 | 3.37 | 292 | 89 |
| Colby Blueberg R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.54 | 22.7% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .315 | 4.14 | 20.3% | 9.8% | 50 | +0.60 | 2.36 | 229 | 89 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 88 |
| Randall Delgado R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 88 |
| Guido Knudson R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.50 | 20.7% | 11.1% | 1.4% | .255 | 4.70 | 17.5% | 6.7% | 47 | +1.20 | 3.50 | 106 | 88 |
| Tyler Joyner R 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 2.0% | .250 | 6.54 | 16.1% | 5.2% | 37 | +2.83 | 3.71 | 114 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $8M | +$3M | ||