Jace Kaminska
P
Fresno Grizzlies
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 235 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 1.0 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 61 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 96
ERA4.17
FIP4.17
K%23.1%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%14.9%
ROS IP61
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.29 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 17 | 16 | 87 | 353 | 104 | 12 | 6 | 94% | 5.1 | 21.8% | 4.0% | 17.8% | 2.2% | 2.78 | 2.97 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 17 | 16 | 87 | 353 | 104 | 12 | 6 | 94% | 5.1 | 29.5% | 3.4% | 26.1% | 1.7% | 2.78 | 2.02 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 60 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.1% | 8.2% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 61 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.5% | 8.1% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 10 | 10 | 62 | 261 | 62 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.7% | 8.2% | 15.5% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | COL | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 61 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.7% | 8.3% | 15.4% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | COL | 10 | 10 | 59 | 250 | 59 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.5% | 8.5% | 15.1% | 3.1% | 4.22 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | COL | 9 | 9 | 56 | 239 | 56 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.3% | 8.7% | 14.6% | 3.2% | 4.32 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | COL | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 51 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 3.4% | 4.47 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | COL | 8 | 8 | 50 | 209 | 47 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 3.7% | 4.65 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | COL | 8 | 8 | 46 | 193 | 43 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 3.9% | 4.85 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 26 | 9 | 4 | 100% | 6.5 | 23.5% | 8.1% | 15.4% | 3.4% | 4.39 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 41 | 14 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.7% | 8.2% | 15.5% | 3.4% | 4.38 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | COL | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 47 | 16 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.7% | 8.3% | 15.4% | 3.4% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | COL | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 50 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.5% | 8.5% | 15.1% | 3.5% | 4.48 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | COL | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 48 | 18 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.3% | 8.7% | 14.6% | 3.7% | 4.59 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | COL | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 47 | 18 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 4.0% | 4.76 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | COL | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 43 | 18 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 4.2% | 4.96 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | COL | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 39 | 17 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 4.5% | 5.18 | 5.32 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 58 | 58 | 349 | 1474 | 341 | 129 | 56 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 8.8% | 14.4% | 3.8% | 4.65 | 4.33 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 74 | 32 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 8.8% | 14.4% | 3.8% | 4.65 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 18 | 16 | 88 | 356 | 78 | 14 | 8 | 89% | 4.9 | 21.9% | 4.0% | 17.9% | 2.2% | 2.75 | 2.95 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 36 | 200 | 806 | 177 | 32 | 18 | 89% | 4.9 | 21.9% | 4.0% | 17.9% | 2.2% | 2.75 | 2.95 | +5.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jace Kaminska (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.17 | 23.1% | 8.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.14 | 23.6% | 15.4% | 185 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.20 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .359 | 4.87 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.67 | 4.20 | 118 | 84 |
| Tyson Hardin R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.45 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 177 | 83 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.69 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .256 | 5.06 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.37 | 3.69 | 333 | 81 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.69 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .336 | 6.45 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.76 | 3.69 | 124 | 81 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.79 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.56 | 23.9% | 18.1% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.56 | 167 | 81 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 80 |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 80 |
| Trent Palmer R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 80 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 80 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 79 |
| Luc Rennie R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.48 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 2.3% | .352 | 5.49 | 14.5% | 5.7% | 209 | +2.01 | 3.48 | 265 | 79 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 79 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.66 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.7% | .298 | 5.01 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.20 | 416 | 79 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.65 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 4.28 | 18.7% | 10.9% | 389 | -0.37 | 3.21 | 630 | 79 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 79 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 79 |
| Ryan Watson R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.26 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | .342 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 5.4% | 98 | +1.59 | 4.26 | 165 | 78 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.81 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .321 | 5.05 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.24 | 3.81 | 171 | 78 |
| Drew McDaniel R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.72 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 4.0% | .307 | 6.57 | 17.9% | 5.9% | 61 | +1.85 | 4.72 | 200 | 78 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.53 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% | .278 | 5.41 | 19.6% | 8.0% | 66 | +0.88 | 3.96 | 260 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 57 | 23.2% | 8.6% | 1.24 | 4.32 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Tyler Duffey ('22) | 8 | 59 | 23.0% | 6.8% | 1.25 | 4.57 |
| Nick Wittgren ('23) | 8 | 41 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 4.04 |