Jace Kaminska

P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 235 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.1 · 2027

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1254ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	ROKCOL	1	0	1	0.00	1.10	33.3%	0.0%	—	K 33.3% · BB 0.0% · FIP 0.29
2024	22	ACOL	17	16	87	2.78	2.02	29.5%	3.4%	—	K 21.8% · BB 4.0% · FIP 2.98
2027PROJ	25	MLBCOL	—	—	0	3.98	3.98	22.9%	6.3%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBCOL	4	4	26	4.25	4.24	23.1%	6.6%	0.4
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCOL	6	6	38	4.29	4.31	23.2%	6.9%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

CompsShane Greene (age 25) · Andy Ferguson (age 26) · Shumpei Yoshikawa (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 93

ERA3.98

FIP3.98

K%22.9%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%16.6%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	17	16	87	353	104	12	6	94%	5.1	21.8%	4.0%	17.8%	2.2%	2.78	2.98	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	17	16	87	353	104	12	6	94%	5.1	21.8%	4.0%	17.8%	2.2%	2.78	2.98	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	17	16	87	353	104	12	6	94%	5.1	29.5%	3.4%	26.1%	1.7%	2.78	2.02	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.9%	6.3%	16.6%	3.0%	3.98	3.98	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	10	10	61	258	60	17	8	100%	6.1	23.1%	6.6%	16.6%	3.0%	4.00	3.99	+1.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	10	10	60	254	59	17	8	100%	6.0	23.2%	6.9%	16.3%	3.0%	4.04	4.06	+1.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	4	4	26	110	25	7	4	100%	6.5	23.1%	6.6%	16.6%	3.4%	4.25	4.24	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	6	6	38	160	37	11	6	100%	6.3	23.2%	6.9%	16.3%	3.5%	4.29	4.31	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	11	64	270	62	18	9	100%	5.8	23.1%	6.7%	16.4%	3.5%	4.28	3.90	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	194	56	28	100%	6.0	23.1%	6.7%	16.4%	3.5%	4.28	3.90	+3.6
Career	—	MLE		18	16	88	356	78	14	8	89%	4.9	21.9%	4.0%	17.9%	2.2%	2.75	2.95	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	36	200	806	177	32	18	89%	4.9	21.9%	4.0%	17.9%	2.2%	2.75	2.95	+3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AFresno Grizzlies · 87 IPFIP 1.98 → 2.98 (+1.00)K% 29.5% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.46%	—	×0.740	21.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.40%	—	×1.180	4.01%
HR / BF /BF	1.70%	÷1.002	×1.300	2.20%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.98 → 2.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jace Kaminska (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.98	22.9%	6.3%	3.0%	—	4.02	23.1%	16.4%	121	+0.04	—	—	—
Shane Greene R 2014 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	23.5%	8.4%	2.2%	.322	3.82	19.0%	10.9%	247	+0.45	2.86	563	84
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	84
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	83
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	83
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	81
James McDonald R 2010 · 2.99 FIP	25	SP-	2.99	22.2%	7.8%	1.4%	.314	4.36	19.8%	10.2%	372	+1.37	2.99	506	81
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	81
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	81
Jimmy Nelson R 2014 · 3.33 FIP	25	SP	3.33	18.3%	6.1%	1.8%	.332	3.69	21.4%	13.0%	532	+0.36	1.32	720	80
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	78
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	78
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	77
Matt Wise R 2001 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	23.7%	8.1%	5.2%	.271	3.50	13.5%	7.2%	53	-1.48	3.33	302	77
Christian Scott R 2024 · 4.68 FIP	25	SP	4.68	23.9%	6.3%	5.1%	.249	3.48	27.9%	18.7%	124	-1.20	2.56	358	76
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	76
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	76
Jesse Hahn R 2014 · 3.15 FIP	25	SP	3.15	22.9%	10.1%	1.3%	.264	3.99	14.9%	6.0%	304	+0.84	2.19	499	76
Chase Anderson R 2014 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	21.6%	7.8%	3.3%	.309	4.03	19.6%	12.6%	446	-0.03	3.30	1,260	76
Blake Burkhalter R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	17.3%	6.5%	1.6%	.317	3.55	18.1%	7.9%	133	+0.20	3.25	202	76
M.D. Johnson R 2022 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP	4.27	21.3%	7.1%	3.8%	.269	4.85	15.7%	4.1%	181	+0.58	3.52	395	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	61	23.1%	6.6%	1.16	4.01
Dale Thayer ('15)	1.3	63	20.4%	6.3%	1.07	3.47
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
Charlie Furbush ('15)	1.3	52	24.5%	8.1%	1.04	3.97
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*