Jace Kaminska
P
Fresno Grizzlies
+1.0
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 235 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 1.5 · 2028
ERA4.17
FIP4.17
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.1%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%14.9%
IP87
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.5peak
2028
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 17 | 16 | 87 | 353 | 104 | 12 | 6 | 21.8% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 2.78 | 2.98 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | COL | 16 | 16 | 87 | 369 | 85 | 30 | 11 | 23.1% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 99 | 34 | 12 | 23.4% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.12 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 107 | 453 | 106 | 36 | 13 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.12 | 4.11 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 111 | 467 | 109 | 37 | 14 | 23.4% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.12 | 4.12 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 111 | 468 | 109 | 37 | 14 | 23.3% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.15 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 108 | 458 | 106 | 37 | 14 | 23.2% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.17 | 4.20 | +1.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 105 | 444 | 102 | 36 | 14 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.22 | 4.26 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 101 | 428 | 97 | 35 | 13 | 22.8% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.33 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 97 | 411 | 92 | 35 | 13 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.37 | 4.42 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | COL | 17 | 17 | 93 | 392 | 87 | 34 | 13 | 22.2% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.46 | 4.52 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | COL | 16 | 16 | 88 | 373 | 81 | 33 | 13 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 4.56 | 4.63 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | COL | 15 | 15 | 83 | 351 | 75 | 32 | 12 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 4.67 | 4.75 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 76 | 28 | 12 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 4.64 | 4.61 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 72 | 305 | 69 | 27 | 12 | 22.5% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 4.71 | 4.76 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 18 | 16 | 88 | 356 | 78 | 14 | 8 | 21.9% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 2.75 | 2.95 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 36 | 200 | 806 | 177 | 32 | 18 | 21.9% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 2.75 | 2.95 | +5.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jace Kaminska (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.17 | 23.1% | 8.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.12 | 23.4% | 15.5% | 318 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .359 | 4.85 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.83 | 4.02 | 118 | 90 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 89 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.01 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .256 | 5.52 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.51 | 4.01 | 277 | 88 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 87 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 87 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 86 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 86 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | .336 | 6.35 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.48 | 3.87 | 124 | 85 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .321 | 5.23 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.26 | 3.97 | 171 | 85 |
| Martin Agosta R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.29 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | .340 | 4.59 | 12.3% | 5.7% | 40 | +0.30 | 4.29 | 146 | 85 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 85 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .319 | 3.42 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.56 | 3.15 | 349 | 85 |
| Alex FaGalde R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.79 | 19.1% | 6.7% | 2.7% | .266 | 4.98 | 16.1% | 6.4% | 162 | +1.19 | 3.79 | 279 | 85 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .288 | 4.37 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 313 | +0.06 | 2.50 | 554 | 85 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.66 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 4.0% | .261 | 4.22 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 173 | -0.44 | 3.50 | 368 | 84 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.92 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 4.5% | .277 | 4.93 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 274 | +0.01 | 4.04 | 448 | 84 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .279 | 4.35 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.28 | 4.35 | 254 | 84 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.70 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .309 | 3.24 | 21.0% | 14.2% | 101 | -0.46 | 1.87 | 210 | 84 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2028 · 3.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.65 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .262 | 3.09 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.56 | 3.09 | 137 | 84 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.55 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .319 | 6.02 | 15.6% | 0.6% | 19 | +2.47 | 3.55 | 252 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.4 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$11M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +1.1 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.9 | $5M | +$3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.8 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $7M | $44M | +$37M | ||