Jace Kaminska — OGILVIE

Jace Kaminska P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 235 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.6 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA3.84

FIP3.84

K%22.5%

BB%5.1%

K-BB%17.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$28M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	17	16	87	353	104	12	6	94%	5.1	21.8%	4.0%	17.8%	2.2%	2.78	2.98	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	17	16	87	353	104	12	6	94%	5.1	21.8%	4.0%	17.8%	2.2%	2.78	2.98	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	17	16	87	353	104	12	6	94%	5.1	29.5%	3.4%	26.1%	1.7%	2.78	2.02	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	COL	1	1	5	21	5	1	1	100%	5.0	22.5%	5.1%	17.3%	2.9%	3.84	3.84	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	COL	14	14	80	336	77	18	10	100%	5.7	22.9%	5.4%	17.5%	2.9%	3.85	3.83	+1.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	80	336	78	19	10	100%	6.1	23.2%	5.6%	17.5%	2.9%	3.86	3.84	+1.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	78	331	77	19	10	100%	6.0	23.2%	5.9%	17.3%	3.0%	3.90	3.90	+0.9
2030	28	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	76	321	74	20	10	100%	5.8	23.1%	6.1%	16.9%	3.1%	3.97	4.00	+0.8
2031	29	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	73	307	70	19	10	100%	6.0	22.8%	6.3%	16.5%	3.2%	4.07	4.13	+0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	68	288	65	19	10	100%	6.2	22.5%	6.6%	15.8%	3.4%	4.21	4.31	+0.5
2033	31	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	64	269	59	19	10	100%	5.8	22.1%	7.0%	15.1%	3.7%	4.39	4.51	+0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	COL	6	6	34	144	33	8	5	100%	5.7	22.9%	5.4%	17.5%	3.4%	4.09	4.07	+0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	53	224	52	13	8	100%	5.9	23.2%	5.6%	17.5%	3.4%	4.10	4.08	+0.7
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	61	258	60	15	9	100%	6.1	23.2%	5.9%	17.3%	3.4%	4.15	4.15	+0.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	64	270	62	17	10	100%	5.8	23.1%	6.1%	16.9%	3.5%	4.23	4.26	+0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	64	270	62	17	10	100%	5.8	22.8%	6.3%	16.5%	3.7%	4.34	4.40	+0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	61	258	58	17	10	100%	6.1	22.5%	6.6%	15.8%	4.0%	4.50	4.60	+0.4
2033	31	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	58	245	54	17	10	100%	5.8	22.1%	7.0%	15.1%	4.2%	4.70	4.82	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	66	394	1664	379	103	61	100%	6.0	22.8%	6.2%	16.6%	3.7%	4.32	3.98	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	192	52	31	100%	6.0	22.8%	6.2%	16.6%	3.7%	4.32	3.98	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		18	16	88	356	78	14	8	89%	4.9	21.9%	4.0%	17.9%	2.2%	2.75	2.95	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	36	200	806	177	32	18	89%	4.9	21.9%	4.0%	17.9%	2.2%	2.75	2.95	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jace Kaminska (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.84	22.5%	5.1%	2.9%	—	3.86	23.1%	17.5%	238	+0.02	—	—	—
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	84
Nick Fraze R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	24	SP	3.86	17.3%	3.5%	3.2%	.261	5.14	16.9%	6.5%	157	+1.28	3.86	278	83
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	82
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.98	22.8%	17.1%	404	+0.02	3.18	510	81
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	80
Luc Rennie R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	24	SP	3.45	18.7%	5.5%	2.2%	.352	5.56	14.5%	5.7%	209	+2.11	3.45	265	80
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	79
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	78
David Sandlin R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	24.8%	6.5%	4.0%	.360	4.39	21.4%	12.1%	253	+0.34	3.94	312	78
Alex Faedo R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP	3.73	22.9%	5.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	18.0%	7.8%	54	+0.79	3.66	456	77
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	76
McCade Brown R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	21	SP	4.05	23.0%	7.1%	3.6%	.349	4.50	24.1%	12.2%	117	+0.45	3.99	207	76
Jayden Murray R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SP	4.14	20.8%	5.3%	3.9%	.167	4.92	16.8%	6.7%	145	+0.78	3.80	363	75
Connor McCullough R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	21.8%	6.4%	4.7%	.280	4.09	19.9%	12.5%	148	-0.57	3.68	261	75
Kumar Rocker R 2023 · 2.86 FIP	23	SP	2.86	29.1%	7.3%	2.4%	.317	3.93	22.0%	13.5%	250	+1.07	1.93	278	75
Erik Swanson R 2018 · 3.14 FIP	24	SP	3.14	25.2%	6.9%	2.3%	.271	5.07	22.3%	15.9%	118	+1.93	1.60	606	75
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	17.6%	5.5%	2.5%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.12	3.18	237	74
Gabe Mosser R 2019 · 3.75 FIP	23	SP	3.75	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.57	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.82	3.75	651	74
Wilmer Font R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	26	SP	3.82	17.0%	4.9%	2.8%	.277	3.84	26.2%	19.1%	263	+0.02	2.76	345	74
Engert Garcia R 2023 · 3.13 FIP	23	SP-	3.13	16.9%	5.5%	1.4%	.270	4.81	14.9%	-5.3%	79	+1.68	3.13	125	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	72	22.8%	6.0%	1.21	4.00
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97