Sawyer Hawks
P
Hillsboro Hops
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 98
ERA4.30
FIP4.30
K%27.4%
BB%11.5%
K-BB%15.9%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 5 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.3% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 0.0% | 1.80 | 2.21 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 5 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.3% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 0.0% | 1.80 | 2.30 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 28 | 0 | 38 | 169 | 59 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.9% | 12.9% | 14.0% | 5.2% | 3.99 | 5.31 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ARI | 59 | 0 | 62 | 261 | 71 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.4% | 11.5% | 15.9% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 27.4% | 11.5% | 15.9% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 4.30 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 100 | 430 | 130 | 49 | 15 | — | — | 30.3% | 11.4% | 19.0% | 3.5% | 4.18 | 4.69 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 27.4% | 11.5% | 15.9% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 3.92 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 60 | 0 | 63 | 267 | 73 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 16.7% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 75 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.6% | 10.4% | 17.2% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 4.11 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 75 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.6% | 10.3% | 17.3% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 4.10 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 73 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.5% | 10.4% | 17.1% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 71 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.4% | 10.5% | 16.8% | 3.1% | 4.19 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 31 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 16.7% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.18 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 50 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.6% | 10.4% | 17.2% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 59 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.6% | 10.3% | 17.3% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 4.10 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 63 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.5% | 10.4% | 17.1% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 62 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.4% | 10.5% | 16.8% | 3.1% | 4.19 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 218 | 0 | 229 | 966 | 266 | 101 | 29 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.5% | 10.5% | 17.1% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 3.78 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 232 | 88 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.5% | 10.5% | 17.1% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 3.78 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 33 | 0 | 43 | 188 | 50 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.8% | 12.7% | 14.1% | 4.7% | 3.74 | 5.00 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 152 | 0 | 200 | 868 | 233 | 110 | 40 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.8% | 12.7% | 14.1% | 4.7% | 3.74 | 5.00 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sawyer Hawks (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 27.4% | 11.5% | 3.1% | — | 4.13 | 27.6% | 17.1% | 191 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Lucas Wepf R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.68 | 27.6% | 10.7% | 2.8% | .323 | 3.88 | 26.5% | 15.2% | 118 | +0.20 | 2.90 | 176 | 94 |
| Steven Wilson R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.13 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .271 | 3.80 | 29.3% | 19.9% | 92 | -0.33 | 3.36 | 311 | 91 |
| Jackson Kelley R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.84 | 26.5% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 3.92 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 138 | +0.08 | 3.80 | 190 | 91 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.34 | 27.7% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .291 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 6.5% | 183 | +0.98 | 3.34 | 334 | 90 |
| Justin Yeager R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.58 | 26.6% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .281 | 3.98 | 25.4% | 12.6% | 103 | +0.40 | 3.21 | 239 | 89 |
| Jacob Dorris R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.86 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 2.7% | .295 | 4.59 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 88 | +0.73 | 3.86 | 130 | 89 |
| Zac Leigh R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 28.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .270 | 4.55 | 21.7% | 5.4% | 130 | +0.78 | 3.72 | 197 | 89 |
| Zach Franklin R 2028 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.31 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 97 | +0.78 | 3.48 | 138 | 88 |
| Eli Villalobos R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.79 | 28.1% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .337 | 5.01 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 153 | +1.22 | 3.79 | 214 | 87 |
| Donovan Benoit R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 25.3% | 12.4% | 1.8% | .284 | 4.38 | 17.6% | 4.3% | 138 | +0.85 | 3.53 | 183 | 87 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.34 | 26.7% | 12.8% | 1.6% | .328 | 4.48 | 18.9% | 7.7% | 170 | +1.14 | 3.34 | 252 | 87 |
| Paul Voelker R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.76 | 27.5% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .376 | 4.47 | 18.2% | 9.0% | 147 | +0.71 | 3.05 | 256 | 86 |
| Austin Roberts R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.57 | 26.8% | 10.1% | 4.5% | .338 | 4.16 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 188 | -0.41 | 3.33 | 349 | 86 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.73 | 27.3% | 14.6% | 2.0% | .301 | 5.31 | 20.1% | 1.6% | 149 | +1.58 | 3.73 | 203 | 86 |
| Shane Smith R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.44 | 28.1% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .259 | 3.41 | 24.0% | 14.9% | 252 | -0.03 | 2.87 | 309 | 85 |
| Patrick Ruotolo R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.62 | 27.5% | 10.6% | 4.5% | .263 | 3.84 | 28.9% | 25.8% | 37 | -0.78 | 3.48 | 190 | 85 |
| Jesen Therrien R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.94 | 25.0% | 12.8% | 2.4% | .310 | 3.39 | 21.3% | 15.8% | 76 | -0.55 | 2.70 | 192 | 85 |
| Matt Seelinger R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.51 | 25.8% | 9.2% | 4.4% | .320 | 4.31 | 28.3% | 14.1% | 83 | -0.20 | 3.06 | 349 | 85 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 85 |
| Ryan Shreve R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.24 | 25.9% | 11.8% | 1.5% | .257 | 4.32 | 17.8% | 8.6% | 182 | +1.08 | 3.24 | 290 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 63 | 27.5% | 10.7% | 1.18 | 4.19 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Wade Davis ('21) | 6 | 53 | 27.3% | 10.4% | 0.90 | 3.77 |
| Brad Boxberger ('23) | 8 | 43 | 27.1% | 11.7% | 1.17 | 3.86 |
| Dominic Leone ('23) | 7 | 46 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 3.81 |