John Bay — OGILVIE

John BayOF Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 25 R/R 6'1" / 217 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION313 act + 208 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.188 / .290 / .338

PA208

HR6

SB8

K%33

BB%8

BABIP260

ISO149

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 21 / POW 51

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT21

scouting grade only

POWER51

scouting grade only

EYE49

scouting grade only

SPEED56

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	24	A	2 teams	—	108	87	19	3	1	4	12	42	8	6	2	218	364	414	778	195	357	39	11	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A	2 teams	—	108	83	21	3	1	4	16	33	8	6	2	253	421	458	878	205	362	31	15	394	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	A+	NYM	—	313	271	48	11	2	10	23	114	19	17	4	177	288	343	631	166	259	36	7	270	65	-12	+2	+0	-2	+9	-0.4
YTD	25	A+	NYM	—	313	260	58	14	2	13	34	85	19	17	4	223	355	442	797	219	278	27	11	358	132	+11	+2	+0	-2	+9	2.1
ROS	25	A+	NYM	0%	208	180	34	7	1	6	17	68	9	8	2	188	290	338	628	149	262	33	8	292	82	-4	+1	+0	-1	+6	0.1
ROS	25	MLB	NYM	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						262	0	0	260	57	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	25	A+	NYM	—	314	272	48	11	2	10	23	114	19	17	4	176	287	342	629	165	257	36	7	270	65	-12	+2	+0	-2	+9	-0.4
TOT	25	A+	NYM	—	521	451	82	18	3	16	40	182	28	25	6	182	289	341	630	159	259	35	8	279	72	-17	+3	+0	-3	+15	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	NYM	30%	549	481	95	19	3	17	44	173	19	15	4	198	290	356	646	158	263	32	8	291	81	-12	+1	+0	-3	+16	0.2
2028	27	MLB	NYM	42%	564	494	99	20	3	17	46	174	19	16	4	200	293	356	650	156	265	31	8	294	83	-11	+2	+0	-3	+16	0.3
2029	28	MLB	NYM	48%	569	499	100	20	3	17	47	174	18	15	4	200	293	355	647	154	266	31	8	294	83	-11	+1	-1	-3	+16	0.3
2030	29	MLB	NYM	49%	568	497	100	20	3	17	48	174	18	14	4	201	295	356	651	155	266	31	8	293	82	-11	+1	-1	-3	+16	0.1
2027	26	MLB	NYM	30%	166	146	29	6	1	5	13	52	6	5	1	199	291	356	647	158	263	31	8	265	61	-7	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.3
2028	27	MLB	NYM	42%	235	206	41	8	1	7	19	72	8	7	2	199	292	350	641	150	265	31	8	269	64	-10	+1	+0	-1	+7	-0.4
2029	28	MLB	NYM	48%	271	237	48	10	1	8	23	83	9	7	2	203	297	354	652	152	266	31	8	270	65	-11	+1	-0	-2	+8	-0.4
2030	29	MLB	NYM	49%	280	246	49	10	1	8	23	86	9	7	2	199	291	346	637	146	266	31	8	270	64	-11	+1	-1	-2	+8	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	953	836	167	34	4	28	78	293	32	26	7	200	293	350	643	151	268	31	8	269	64	-39	+2	-1	-6	+27	-1.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	570	114	23	3	19	53	200	22	18	5	200	293	351	644	151	268	31	8	269	64	-27	+2	-1	-4	+18	-1.1
Career	—			—	2566	2238	447	89	14	78	214	805	91	74	20	200	296	356	652	157	269	31	8	295	84	-47	+7	-2	-15	+73	1.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	567	114	23	4	20	54	204	23	19	5	201	297	362	658	160	271	31	8	295	84	-12	+2	-1	-4	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	24	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	39	29	3	0	0	1	7	12	3	2	1	103	333	207	540	103	125	31	18	282	74	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2025	24	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	69	54	18	3	1	3	9	21	5	4	1	333	471	593	1.063	259	484	30	13	458	209	+8	+0	—	—	+2	1.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#5John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	954	29	26	201	291	357	-6	+0	0.4	0.4
	/162	664	20	18	201	291	357	-4.0	+0.0	0.3	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
John Bay (OGILVIE)	25	21	51	56	49	182/289/341	159	259	16	25	35%	8%	72	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeremy Sy 2015 · A	25	38	51→55	50	47	202/277/365	162	255	19	12	29%	8%	78	+0.2	210/278/329	119	300	12	13	32%	8%	69	-0.4	199/270/289	90	299	8	15	34%	8%	50	-0.8
✕Jeremy Rathjen 2015 · A	25	43→41	48→50	51→50	45	219/286/364	145	276	16	14	27%	7%	82	+0.5	206/262/337	131	281	14	9	31%	6%	64	-0.8	165/214/276	112	225	13	5	33%	5%	24	-1.5
●Andrew Navigato 2023 · AA	25	40→38	51→60	49→50	42	213/277/371	158	262	20	14	27%	6%	80	+0.4	223/279/416	193	277	24	15	28%	6%	92	+1.2	217/275/424	208	268	26	17	30%	6%	89	+0.7
✕Michael Helman 2022 · A	26	39→41	51→55	52→55	44	205/262/364	158	247	18	14	26%	7%	71	-0.3	222/281/382	160	270	20	24	25%	7%	84	+0.6	219/280/378	159	264	21	28	25%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Ryan Cordell 2017 · AA	25	44→42	50	53→50	40	227/271/380	153	285	18	14	27%	5%	79	+0.3	205/253/335	130	274	14	13	30%	5%	59	-1.1	189/242/308	119	257	13	13	31%	5%	46	-0.9
✕Brandon Meredith 2015 · AA	25	40→36	50	43→45	46	207/287/359	152	273	17	7	30%	9%	81	+0.4	212/279/335	123	294	13	8	31%	8%	71	-0.3	191/254/285	93	268	11	5	31%	7%	43	-0.6
✕Jabari Henry 2016 · AA	25	36→40	51→55	46→45	46	191/276/352	161	267	19	7	34%	10%	75	-0.0	196/264/341	145	281	18	6	35%	7%	66	-0.6	174/240/314	140	235	21	2	35%	6%	46	-1.3
✕Jared Keel 2009 · A	24	39→38	52→50	48→45	47	207/289/373	166	249	20	10	26%	8%	86	+0.8	205/291/350	145	262	16	7	27%	9%	80	+0.4	182/282/323	141	228	16	1	27%	11%	69	-0.3
✕Kyle Datres 2021 · A	25	39→40	45→50	51→55	41	198/264/325	127	271	12	15	31%	6%	62	-0.9	206/284/345	139	284	16	22	32%	8%	76	+0.1	198/283/340	141	269	18	27	32%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Luis Castro 2021 · AA	25	43→38	47→50	48→45	47	213/309/346	133	293	14	10	30%	9%	87	+0.8	198/267/323	125	326	14	8	41%	7%	63	-0.8	198/263/340	142	299	16	6	37%	6%	62	-0.5
✕Willie MacIver 2023 · AAA	26	36→33	48→45	50→55	39	191/255/325	133	271	17	14	35%	6%	59	-1.1	215/291/341	126	313	13	16	33%	8%	78	+0.2	225/305/348	123	321	11	18	31%	8%	83	+0.3
✕Johan Mieses 2021 · AAA	26	37→33	51→55	50	40	202/258/351	149	255	20	7	30%	6%	67	-0.5	220/291/413	193	279	26	9	30%	7%	97	+1.5	205/284/416	211	247	30	7	31%	8%	91	+0.5
✕Devin Foyle 2022 · AA	25	39→36	50→45	48→45	43	206/272/358	152	269	18	10	30%	7%	74	-0.1	214/285/341	127	273	14	7	26%	8%	75	-0.0	193/283/277	84	242	8	0	22%	10%	55	-0.5
✕Brian Pellegrini 2009 · A	24	36→34	55→60	56→45	39	198/270/387	189	267	24	11	35%	6%	82	+0.5	212/284/410	198	276	28	7	33%	8%	93	+1.3	201/279/407	206	250	31	5	33%	8%	90	+0.7
✕Rylan Bannon 2022 · AAA	26	34→42	49→50	50	46	185/255/328	144	223	18	11	26%	8%	59	-1.1	203/290/358	155	263	19	13	29%	10%	82	+0.5	197/295/350	153	257	19	12	30%	11%	80	+0.3
✕Zack Short 2019 · AA	24	39→38	49→50	47→45	50	199/291/349	150	269	16	9	31%	11%	80	+0.4	196/288/337	141	280	15	7	33%	10%	76	+0.1	180/281/315	135	241	16	9	31%	11%	66	-0.5
✕Jonny DeLuca 2022 · A	24	41→38	54→60	56→55	45	219/278/397	178	254	22	15	24%	7%	87	+0.8	226/291/414	188	257	23	16	22%	7%	97	+1.5	222/292/406	184	249	22	19	21%	7%	92	+0.8
✕Sicnarf Loopstok 2018 · A	25	41→38	49→55	46→50	38	211/272/358	147	295	17	11	34%	6%	74	-0.1	229/305/403	174	315	22	8	32%	8%	100	+1.7	229/330/455	226	293	32	2	32%	11%	126	+1.3
✕Peyton Burdick 2023 · MLB	26	35→32	51→55	50	44	187/277/350	163	274	19	12	37%	9%	75	-0.0	186/266/343	157	299	19	12	42%	8%	69	-0.4	165/248/320	156	268	21	12	44%	8%	53	-1.0
✕Alex Frazier 2006 · A	25	42→39	52→55	44→45	44	220/295/384	164	279	20	6	28%	8%	91	+1.1	209/262/337	128	285	15	5	31%	5%	64	-0.8	187/225/297	110	255	14	1	32%	3%	36	-1.5