John Bay — OGILVIE

John BayOF Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 25 R/R 6'1" / 217 lbs A+ H -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION482 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP276

ISO137

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 46

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER46

scouting grade only

EYE49

scouting grade only

SPEED58

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	24	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	39	29	3	0	0	1	7	12	3	2	1	103	333	207	540	103	125	31	18	282	77	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2025	24	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	69	54	18	3	1	3	9	21	5	4	1	333	471	593	1.063	259	484	30	13	458	196	+8	+0	—	—	+1	1.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	24	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	39	31	3	0	0	1	5	16	3	2	1	97	282	194	476	97	111	41	13	199	21	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	24	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	69	56	16	3	1	3	7	28	5	4	1	286	412	536	947	250	459	41	10	386	147	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2025	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	108	87	18	3	1	3	12	44	8	6	2	207	355	368	723	161	366	41	11	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A RAW	2 teams	—	108	83	21	3	1	4	16	33	8	6	2	253	421	458	878	205	362	31	15	394	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	108	87	18	3	1	3	12	44	8	6	2	207	355	368	723	161	333	41	11	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	108	87	18	3	1	3	12	44	8	6	2	207	355	368	723	161	333	41	11	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	NYM	—	482	420	82	18	3	12	37	177	23	29	7	195	296	338	634	143	300	37	8	275	73	-16	+3	+0	-3	+10	-0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ RAW	NYM	—	325	271	63	16	3	13	35	88	19	18	4	232	360	458	818	225	294	27	11	366	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	AA RAW	NYM	—	157	131	33	6	0	3	20	48	4	11	3	252	368	366	734	115	366	31	13	335	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	25	A+ MLE	NYM	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		283	30	10	289	82	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	25	A+ MLE	NYM	—	492	429	83	18	3	12	38	180	23	29	7	193	294	333	627	140	297	37	8	276	73	-16	+3	+0	-3	+11	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	NYM	30%	298	263	54	11	2	8	24	95	9	10	3	205	294	354	648	148	280	32	8	289	81	-7	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	NYM	42%	339	298	61	12	2	9	28	106	10	11	3	205	295	349	644	144	281	31	8	291	83	-7	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	NYM	48%	365	320	66	13	2	10	31	113	11	12	3	206	298	353	651	147	281	31	8	292	84	-7	+1	-1	-2	+8	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	NYM	49%	371	326	67	13	2	10	31	115	11	11	3	206	296	350	646	144	280	31	8	291	83	-7	+1	-1	-2	+8	-0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	NYM	50%	376	330	67	13	2	10	32	118	11	10	3	203	295	345	640	142	278	31	9	288	81	-8	+1	-2	-2	+8	-0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	NYM	30%	90	80	15	3	0	2	7	29	3	3	1	188	278	300	578	112	272	32	8	261	81	-2	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	NYM	42%	141	124	25	5	1	4	12	44	4	5	1	202	293	355	648	153	273	31	9	265	83	-3	+1	+0	-1	+3	0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	NYM	48%	174	152	31	6	1	5	15	54	5	6	1	204	297	355	652	151	273	31	9	266	84	-3	+1	-0	-1	+4	-0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	NYM	49%	183	161	32	6	1	5	15	57	5	5	1	199	287	342	629	143	272	31	8	266	83	-4	+1	-1	-1	+4	-0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	NYM	50%	189	166	34	7	1	5	16	59	5	5	1	205	294	349	644	145	271	31	8	263	81	-4	+1	-1	-1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	777	683	137	27	4	21	65	243	22	24	5	201	291	344	635	143	274	31	8	264	84	-16	+3	-2	-5	+17	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	115	23	3	18	54	203	18	20	4	201	290	347	637	145	275	31	8	264	84	-13	+2	-2	-4	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	1867	1633	334	65	11	50	159	594	60	60	17	205	299	350	648	145	284	32	9	292	84	-36	+5	-4	-11	+38	-0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	569	116	23	4	17	55	207	21	21	6	204	298	348	646	144	284	32	8	292	84	-13	+2	-2	-4	+14	-0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.2	778	20	24	205	293	347	-5	+0	0.3	0.3
/162	664	17	21	-4.0	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
John Bay (OGILVIE)	25	20	46	58	49	197/293/336	139	283	4	8	33%	8%	82	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Podkul 2022 · AA	25	39	44→50	51→50	46	195/270/310	115	258	11	11	28%	8%	65	-1.2	209/297/348	139	287	16	6	31%	9%	84	+0.2	201/298/342	142	277	17	3	32%	10%	80	-0.1
✕Jeremy Rathjen 2015 · A	25	43→40	47→45	51→50	44	216/284/353	137	278	15	14	27%	7%	80	-0.1	204/259/329	125	276	13	9	30%	6%	65	-1.2	161/210/268	107	215	12	5	31%	5%	29	-1.6
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2021 · AAA	25	39→38	45→50	53→55	44	198/278/323	125	278	13	16	32%	8%	72	-0.7	198/274/306	108	267	10	16	28%	8%	65	-1.2	157/242/244	87	210	7	20	27%	8%	37	-1.4
✕Brian O'Grady 2017 · A	25	39→38	43→55	54→50	49	193/279/308	115	268	10	14	30%	10%	68	-1.0	200/271/341	141	275	15	14	31%	8%	72	-0.7	208/271/384	177	275	20	15	31%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Kyle Datres 2022 · A	26	40→42	47→50	54→55	46	201/285/337	136	272	14	18	30%	9%	78	-0.3	212/290/348	136	290	16	23	31%	8%	82	-0.0	203/285/337	134	276	17	26	31%	8%	75	-0.3
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	40→38	45→40	55→50	46	202/283/328	125	257	12	15	26%	8%	75	-0.5	216/303/308	92	269	8	14	21%	9%	78	-0.3	215/312/285	70	264	6	15	19%	9%	74	-0.3
✕Willie MacIver 2022 · AA	25	37→35	45→50	51→55	39	190/251/306	117	268	13	16	34%	6%	57	-1.8	204/278/330	126	297	13	15	34%	8%	73	-0.6	231/310/361	130	325	12	18	30%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Cory Vaughn 2014 · AA	25	41→42	45	53→50	43	205/281/329	124	284	13	14	31%	8%	74	-0.6	189/257/296	107	273	11	13	33%	7%	57	-1.8	162/232/259	97	233	10	12	34%	7%	37	-1.8
✕Andrew Cain 2015 · A	25	41→37	45→50	57→50	39	207/258/333	126	286	12	14	31%	6%	65	-1.2	190/248/312	122	317	13	9	41%	7%	57	-1.8	153/216/273	120	258	13	8	44%	7%	34	-2.2
✕Michael Helman 2022 · A	26	38→41	49→50	52→55	45	202/261/351	149	244	17	14	25%	7%	71	-0.8	218/278/362	144	268	17	24	25%	7%	80	-0.2	209/267/365	156	250	18	20	24%	5%	74	-0.3
✕Grae Kessinger 2023 · AA	25	35→31	44→45	49→50	44	183/254/292	109	241	13	18	30%	8%	55	-1.9	205/280/316	111	277	12	12	28%	9%	70	-0.8	179/261/273	93	244	9	8	29%	9%	52	-0.9
✕Bradlee Beesley 2023 · AA	25	40	45	55→60	37	201/256/323	123	294	12	21	35%	6%	63	-1.4	207/285/328	121	308	10	26	34%	8%	75	-0.5	192/286/323	131	289	10	39	34%	8%	71	-0.4
✕Alerick Soularie 2023 · A	24	39	44→45	53→60	44	192/273/305	114	293	11	16	36%	9%	65	-1.2	199/280/310	111	290	12	26	33%	9%	70	-0.9	181/272/285	104	255	13	39	32%	9%	60	-0.6
✕Ryan Cordell 2017 · AA	25	44→43	49→50	53→50	40	228/272/378	150	285	17	14	27%	5%	81	-0.1	209/257/340	131	278	14	13	29%	5%	66	-1.1	196/248/317	122	264	13	13	30%	6%	56	-0.9
✕Nick Vickerson 2014 · A	25	38	42→40	49→50	48	189/277/293	104	262	10	13	30%	10%	65	-1.2	203/300/302	99	285	9	11	29%	11%	76	-0.4	188/304/272	85	264	8	11	28%	12%	68	-0.6
✕Andrew Navigato 2023 · AA	25	41→40	48→55	49→50	43	212/276/352	140	262	16	14	26%	6%	77	-0.3	215/273/373	158	275	17	15	28%	6%	81	-0.1	204/264/366	162	267	18	17	30%	6%	73	-0.4
✕Justin Farmer 2023 · A	24	38→33	44→40	54→55	51	186/293/300	113	289	12	20	36%	12%	73	-0.6	188/264/278	90	313	8	18	39%	9%	56	-1.9	158/223/219	62	275	5	22	41%	7%	24	-2.3
✕Andrés Alvarez 2023 · AA	26	39→31	49→45	56→50	45	201/278/345	144	282	17	20	34%	9%	76	-0.4	201/264/313	112	285	11	12	32%	7%	63	-1.3	191/251/288	96	270	9	8	31%	6%	50	-1.3
✕Jeremy Sy 2015 · A	25	38	49→50	49→50	45	198/271/345	146	259	17	12	30%	8%	74	-0.6	209/276/324	115	302	11	13	32%	8%	70	-0.8	199/270/292	93	300	7	15	34%	8%	57	-0.8
✕Skye Bolt 2019 · AA	25	40→41	46→50	51→50	42	204/265/340	137	284	13	12	32%	7%	70	-0.9	218/281/357	139	307	14	12	32%	8%	80	-0.2	238/305/370	133	314	14	12	28%	8%	89	+0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps