Brooks Caple

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#332ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	21	21	98	4.48	3.70	17.3%	10.0%	—	K 13.1% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.34
2026	23	MIX2 levels	22	21	108	3.09	3.04	25.5%	7.3%	—	K 20.4% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.81
2027PROJ	24	MLBCHC	1	1	3	4.61	4.61	18.6%	9.3%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBCHC	8	8	46	4.45	4.41	19.7%	8.9%	0.5
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBCHC	11	11	64	4.38	4.35	20.3%	8.8%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.8 / P90 7.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 86%

CompsJustin Armbruester (age 24) · Ty Cummings (age 22) · Grant Rogers (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%18.6%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP128

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 128 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$21M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.9M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$12M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	98	428	74	43	6	100%	4.7	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	1.6%	4.48	4.34	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	98	428	74	43	6	100%	4.7	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	1.6%	4.48	4.34	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	98	428	74	43	6	100%	4.7	17.3%	10.0%	7.2%	1.4%	4.48	3.70	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	108	424	108	31	9	95%	4.9	20.4%	8.1%	12.3%	2.6%	3.09	3.81	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	108	424	108	31	9	95%	4.9	20.4%	8.1%	12.3%	2.6%	3.09	3.81	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	108	424	108	31	9	95%	4.9	25.5%	7.3%	18.2%	2.1%	3.09	3.04	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CHC	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	3.0	18.6%	9.3%	9.3%	2.8%	4.61	4.61	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CHC	18	18	104	440	87	39	12	100%	5.8	19.7%	8.9%	10.8%	2.8%	4.51	4.47	+1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	CHC	16	16	96	407	83	36	11	100%	6.0	20.3%	8.8%	11.5%	2.8%	4.44	4.41	+1.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	92	387	79	34	11	100%	6.1	20.3%	8.8%	11.6%	2.9%	4.44	4.44	+1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	87	366	74	33	11	100%	6.2	20.3%	8.9%	11.4%	3.0%	4.49	4.52	+0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	80	339	68	31	11	100%	6.2	20.0%	9.1%	10.9%	3.1%	4.59	4.65	+0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	73	307	60	29	10	100%	6.1	19.7%	9.4%	10.3%	3.3%	4.73	4.83	+0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	65	274	53	27	10	100%	5.9	19.3%	9.8%	9.5%	3.5%	4.91	5.03	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	46	194	38	17	5	100%	5.8	19.7%	8.9%	10.8%	2.7%	4.45	4.41	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	CHC	11	11	64	270	55	24	7	100%	5.8	20.3%	8.8%	11.5%	2.7%	4.38	4.35	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	71	300	61	26	8	100%	5.9	20.3%	8.8%	11.6%	2.7%	4.38	4.38	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	73	308	62	27	9	100%	6.1	20.3%	8.9%	11.4%	2.8%	4.43	4.46	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	70	296	59	27	9	100%	5.8	20.0%	9.1%	10.9%	3.0%	4.53	4.59	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	CHC	11	11	65	274	54	26	9	100%	5.9	19.7%	9.4%	10.3%	3.2%	4.66	4.76	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	60	253	49	25	9	100%	6.0	19.3%	9.8%	9.5%	3.4%	4.84	4.96	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		75	75	450	1899	379	173	56	100%	6.0	20.0%	9.1%	10.9%	2.9%	4.52	4.18	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	168	77	25	100%	6.0	20.0%	9.1%	10.9%	2.9%	4.52	4.18	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		43	42	206	852	143	84	18	98%	4.8	16.7%	9.9%	6.8%	2.1%	3.76	4.08	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	41	200	827	138	82	17	98%	4.8	16.7%	9.9%	6.8%	2.1%	3.76	4.08	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 86 IPFIP 3.29 → 4.03 (+0.74)K% 24.3% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.33%	—	×0.810	19.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.42%	—	×1.100	8.16%
HR / BF /BF	2.37%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.85%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.29 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+South Bend Cubs · 22 IPFIP 2.08 → 2.95 (+0.87)K% 29.9% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.89%	—	×0.770	23.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.90%	—	×1.150	7.93%
HR / BF /BF	1.15%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.44%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.08 → 2.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+South Bend Cubs · 63 IPFIP 4.22 → 4.86 (+0.63)K% 15.2% → 11.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.22%	—	×0.770	11.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.03%	—	×1.150	11.54%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷1.106	×1.250	2.35%

Result: FIP 4.22 → 4.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 35 IPFIP 2.55 → 3.26 (+0.70)K% 21.6% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.58%	—	×0.740	15.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.07%	—	×1.180	11.88%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.925	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.55 → 3.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brooks Caple (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.44	20.1%	11.3%	292	-0.17	—	—	—
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP	4.41	17.7%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.25	21.0%	10.6%	135	+0.84	1.49	373	93
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	88
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	87
Ian Mejia R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	5.06	16.0%	6.6%	194	+0.84	3.94	439	87
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	87
Brady Feigl R 2019 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP	3.93	15.9%	7.0%	2.3%	.333	5.26	19.4%	9.8%	122	+1.33	3.93	257	86
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	86
Tyler Herb R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	17.2%	10.1%	2.5%	.298	4.67	15.7%	7.0%	378	+0.38	3.79	867	86
Trystan Vrieling R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	17.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.84	17.9%	5.3%	198	+0.82	4.02	345	86
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP	4.06	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	3.91	23.9%	15.7%	451	-0.15	3.72	709	86
Jack Mahoney R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	17.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.307	4.16	15.0%	4.8%	206	+0.25	3.80	326	86
Tommy Wilson R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.261	3.08	22.8%	15.9%	15	-1.27	3.08	129	86
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	86
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	86
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	85
Micah Owings R 2007 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.4%	3.1%	.264	4.75	16.4%	5.4%	258	+0.40	4.23	473	85
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	85
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	85
Kade Morris R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	16.1%	8.4%	3.5%	.282	4.36	15.6%	8.3%	264	-0.36	3.89	395	85
Félix Peña R 2015 · 3.73 FIP	25	SP	3.73	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.83	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.10	2.79	615	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	91	19.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.57
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Marvin Freeman ('86-'96, 5 WAR*)	3.0	74	17.7%*	9.6%*	1.19*	4.33*
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Lerrin LaGrow ('70-'80, 2 WAR*)	3.9	87	16.8%*	9.1%*	1.23*	4.50*