Brooks Caple — OGILVIE

Brooks Caple P Knoxville Smokies

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.1 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION108 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%13.7%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%2.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 113 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4550

CMD4050

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	98	428	74	43	6	100%	4.7	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	1.6%	4.48	4.34	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	98	428	74	43	6	100%	4.7	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	1.6%	4.48	4.34	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	98	428	74	43	6	100%	4.7	17.3%	10.0%	7.2%	1.4%	4.48	3.70	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	22	21	108	424	108	31	9	95%	4.9	20.4%	8.1%	12.3%	2.6%	3.09	3.81	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	22	21	108	424	108	31	9	95%	4.9	20.4%	8.1%	12.3%	2.6%	3.09	3.81	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	CHC	5	5	22	87	26	6	1	100%	4.3	29.9%	6.9%	23.0%	1.1%	2.49	2.08	—
2026	23	AA RAW	CHC	17	16	86	337	82	25	8	94%	5.1	24.3%	7.4%	16.9%	2.4%	3.24	3.29	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	CHC	1	1	6	24	3	3	1	100%	5.8	13.7%	11.4%	2.3%	2.7%	5.25	5.25	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	113	448	111	34	10	—	—	24.8%	7.5%	17.3%	2.2%	3.20	3.88	+1.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CHC	19	19	108	456	74	47	12	100%	5.7	16.3%	10.4%	5.9%	2.7%	5.00	4.90	0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	CHC	19	19	109	461	82	45	12	100%	5.8	17.8%	9.8%	8.1%	2.7%	4.80	4.69	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	CHC	18	18	109	461	87	44	13	100%	6.1	18.8%	9.6%	9.2%	2.7%	4.68	4.60	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	CHC	18	18	108	455	86	44	13	100%	6.0	18.9%	9.6%	9.2%	2.8%	4.65	4.63	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	CHC	17	17	104	441	83	43	13	100%	6.1	18.7%	9.8%	8.9%	2.9%	4.69	4.72	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	CHC	17	17	100	421	78	42	13	100%	5.9	18.5%	10.0%	8.5%	3.0%	4.79	4.85	+0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	CHC	16	16	94	396	72	41	13	100%	5.9	18.1%	10.3%	7.8%	3.2%	4.93	5.03	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	47	198	32	21	5	100%	5.9	16.3%	10.4%	5.9%	2.6%	4.94	4.84	0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	73	308	55	30	8	100%	6.1	17.8%	9.8%	8.1%	2.6%	4.74	4.63	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	CHC	14	14	87	367	69	35	10	100%	6.2	18.8%	9.6%	9.2%	2.6%	4.62	4.54	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	CHC	15	15	92	388	73	37	10	100%	6.1	18.9%	9.6%	9.2%	2.7%	4.59	4.57	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	CHC	16	16	93	393	74	38	11	100%	5.8	18.7%	9.8%	8.9%	2.8%	4.63	4.66	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	CHC	15	15	91	384	71	38	11	100%	6.1	18.5%	10.0%	8.5%	2.9%	4.73	4.79	+0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	CHC	14	14	87	367	67	38	11	100%	6.2	18.1%	10.3%	7.8%	3.1%	4.86	4.96	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		96	96	570	2406	441	238	67	100%	5.9	18.3%	9.9%	8.4%	2.8%	4.72	4.33	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	155	84	24	100%	5.9	18.3%	9.9%	8.4%	2.8%	4.72	4.33	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		43	42	206	852	143	84	18	98%	4.8	16.7%	9.9%	6.8%	2.1%	3.76	4.08	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	41	200	827	138	82	17	98%	4.8	16.7%	9.9%	6.8%	2.1%	3.76	4.08	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brooks Caple (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	13.7%	11.4%	2.7%	—	4.73	17.6%	7.7%	327	-0.52	—	—	—
Jack Noble R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	16.5%	13.1%	1.9%	.258	6.03	20.3%	8.2%	58	+1.61	4.42	125	87
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	87
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	87
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	87
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	86
Matt Solter R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	23	SP	5.26	14.3%	11.4%	3.5%	.374	4.20	16.4%	4.7%	155	-1.06	3.82	224	86
Troy Miller R 2019 · 5.09 FIP	22	SP	5.09	12.0%	12.7%	2.5%	.299	5.30	18.3%	8.3%	45	+0.21	5.09	168	86
Erich Uelmen R 2019 · 4.64 FIP	23	SP	4.64	15.3%	10.7%	2.7%	.299	4.57	19.8%	8.8%	159	-0.07	3.48	383	85
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	85
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	85
Ricky Salinas R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	15.8%	10.5%	3.0%	.297	5.42	17.7%	5.1%	146	+0.65	4.77	274	85
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	85
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	85
Elliot Morris R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	12.8%	10.4%	1.8%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	102	84
Blake Hickman R 2017 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP	4.19	11.3%	8.7%	1.7%	.271	6.57	12.9%	-4.9%	67	+2.38	4.19	156	84
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	84
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	84
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	84
Juan Grijalva R 2016 · 4.45 FIP	23	SP	4.45	14.2%	8.6%	2.7%	.271	5.91	11.9%	2.7%	24	+1.46	4.45	110	84
Alex Royalty R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	14.9%	11.6%	1.8%	.302	4.50	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.17	4.33	151	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	100	17.8%	10.1%	1.10	4.83
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09