Jose Fernandez — OGILVIE

Jose FernandezSS Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 22 R/R 6'3" / 165 lbs MLB HR +4% Svc 0.000 · Ctrl thru 2031 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION306 act + 204 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .267 / .339

PA204

HR4

SB11

K%26

BB%4

BABIP294

ISO109

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT50

xwOBA

220.276

POWER50

Barrel%

173.9

Avg EV

3487.9

Bat Spd

8575.0

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

9029.5

Platoon Splits2026 · 71 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

157

108

◀◀L

wOBA

390

327

◀◀L

ISO

050

163

▶▶R

BABIP

500

353

◀◀L

19.0%

26.0%

◀◀L

BB%

4.8%

2.0%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-1	$0.3M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$0.7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	126	117	19	3	1	0	7	58	1	4	1	162	216	205	421	43	317	46	6	184	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	126	112	28	4	1	0	11	39	1	4	1	250	320	304	624	54	378	31	9	286	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL D-backs Red	—	196	180	28	5	2	1	9	74	5	2	0	156	216	222	439	67	252	38	5	190	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL D-backs Red	—	196	175	38	7	3	1	14	51	5	2	0	217	294	309	602	91	296	26	7	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	2 teams	—	442	408	82	15	4	5	25	133	3	10	2	201	252	294	546	93	279	30	6	242	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	2 teams	—	442	400	105	20	5	6	33	101	3	10	2	263	323	383	706	120	331	23	7	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	2 teams	—	573	548	99	6	2	10	14	190	2	12	5	181	204	254	458	73	252	33	2	198	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	2 teams	—	573	535	146	21	4	13	27	130	2	12	5	273	310	400	710	127	335	23	5	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA	2 teams	—	527	495	98	18	4	9	23	147	3	12	5	198	238	305	543	107	259	28	4	234	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA	2 teams	—	527	483	132	27	4	18	34	107	3	12	5	273	324	458	782	184	315	20	6	341	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	MLB	ARI	—	306	285	68	12	2	4	16	76	1	13	2	239	281	337	618	98	312	25	5	269	64	-12	+2	+0	-5	+9	-0.7
YTD	22	MLB	ARI	—	306	282	72	13	2	5	19	68	1	13	2	255	305	369	673	113	321	22	6	299	87	-5	+2	+0	-5	+9	0.1
ROS	22	MLB	ARI	100%	204	192	44	7	1	4	9	53	1	11	2	229	267	339	606	109	292	26	4	267	62	-9	+1	+0	-4	+6	-0.5
ROS	22	MLB	ARI	100%	204	192	44	7	1	4	9	53	1	11	2	229	267	339	606	109	294	26	4	266	62	-9	+1	+0	-4	+6	-0.5
FULL	22	MLB	ARI	—	510	477	112	19	3	8	25	129	2	24	4	235	276	338	613	103	305	25	5	268	63	-21	+3	+0	-9	+14	-1.2
TOT	22	MLB	ARI	—	510	477	112	19	3	8	25	129	2	24	4	235	276	338	613	103	305	25	5	268	64	-21	+3	+0	-9	+14	-1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	ARI	65%	632	594	137	22	4	13	30	161	3	32	5	231	271	347	618	116	290	25	5	275	68	-23	+4	+0	-11	+18	-1.2
2028	24	MLB	ARI	65%	644	602	142	23	4	16	33	161	4	33	6	236	280	367	647	131	291	25	5	285	76	-17	+4	+0	-12	+18	-0.6
2029	25	MLB	ARI	65%	648	604	143	23	4	17	35	160	4	33	6	237	283	373	656	136	292	25	5	291	81	-14	+4	+0	-12	+18	-0.3
2030	26	MLB	ARI	65%	648	603	144	23	4	18	36	159	4	33	6	239	286	380	666	141	292	25	6	294	83	-12	+4	+0	-12	+18	-0.1
2031	27	MLB	ARI	65%	643	597	142	23	3	18	37	158	4	33	6	238	287	377	664	139	292	25	6	294	83	-12	+4	+0	-11	+18	-0.1
2032	28	MLB	ARI	65%	635	589	139	22	3	17	37	157	4	31	5	236	286	370	656	134	291	25	6	293	83	-13	+4	-1	-11	+18	-0.2
2033	29	MLB	ARI	65%	623	577	136	22	3	17	37	156	4	28	5	236	286	373	659	137	291	25	6	291	81	-13	+4	-1	-11	+18	-0.5
2034	30	MLB	ARI	65%	611	567	132	21	3	16	36	154	3	25	4	233	282	365	647	132	290	25	6	289	79	-14	+3	-2	-11	+17	-0.7
2035	31	MLB	ARI	65%	596	553	127	20	3	15	35	152	3	21	4	230	279	358	637	128	288	26	6	285	76	-16	+3	-3	-11	+17	-1.0
2027	23	MLB	ARI	65%	411	386	89	14	2	9	20	105	2	21	4	231	272	347	619	117	292	26	5	273	67	-15	+3	+0	-7	+12	-0.8
2028	24	MLB	ARI	65%	419	392	93	15	2	11	22	104	2	21	4	237	281	370	651	133	294	25	5	284	75	-12	+3	+0	-7	+12	-0.5
2029	25	MLB	ARI	65%	421	393	93	15	2	11	23	104	2	22	4	237	282	369	651	132	294	25	5	289	80	-10	+3	+0	-8	+12	-0.3
2030	26	MLB	ARI	65%	421	391	94	15	2	12	24	103	3	22	4	240	289	381	671	141	294	24	6	292	82	-9	+3	+0	-8	+12	-0.1
2031	27	MLB	ARI	65%	418	388	93	15	2	12	24	103	3	21	4	240	289	381	671	142	294	25	6	292	82	-9	+3	+0	-7	+12	-0.2
2032	28	MLB	ARI	65%	413	384	92	15	2	12	24	102	2	20	3	240	288	383	671	143	294	25	6	291	81	-9	+3	-0	-7	+12	-0.2
2033	29	MLB	ARI	65%	405	376	89	14	2	11	24	101	2	18	3	237	286	372	658	136	293	25	6	290	80	-9	+2	-1	-7	+11	-0.4
2034	30	MLB	ARI	65%	397	369	87	14	2	11	23	100	2	16	3	236	284	374	658	138	292	25	6	287	78	-10	+2	-1	-7	+11	-0.5
2035	31	MLB	ARI	65%	387	359	83	13	2	10	23	99	2	14	2	231	281	362	643	131	290	26	6	283	75	-11	+2	-2	-7	+11	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3896	3630	857	137	19	103	216	974	21	186	33	236	283	369	652	133	293	25	6	286	77	-101	+24	-5	-70	+110	-4.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	606	143	23	3	17	36	162	4	31	6	236	284	368	652	132	293	25	6	286	77	-17	+4	-1	-12	+18	-0.7
Career	—			—	7748	7226	1612	253	45	176	403	2073	48	320	62	223	269	344	612	121	286	27	5	271	65	-303	+39	-7	-138	+220	-19.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	606	135	21	4	15	34	174	4	27	5	223	269	345	614	122	285	27	5	271	65	-25	+3	-1	-12	+18	-1.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	126	112	28	4	1	0	11	39	1	4	1	250	320	304	624	54	378	31	9	286	77	-3	+0	—	—	+4	0.1
2022	18	ROK	ACL D-backs Red	—	196	175	38	7	3	1	14	51	5	2	0	217	294	309	602	91	296	26	7	274	68	-7	+0	—	—	+6	-0.1
2023	19	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	394	355	93	18	4	5	31	92	2	9	2	262	325	377	702	115	333	23	8	312	97	-1	+1	—	—	+11	1.1
2023	19	INTL	Caribes de Anzoategui	—	48	45	12	2	1	1	2	9	1	1	0	267	312	422	735	156	314	19	4	326	107	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	20	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	387	363	93	7	2	7	17	85	2	10	5	256	293	344	638	88	315	22	4	284	75	-11	+0	—	—	+11	0.0
2024	20	INTL	Caribes de Anzoategui	—	186	172	53	14	2	6	10	45	0	2	0	308	346	517	864	209	379	24	5	369	141	+9	+0	—	—	+5	1.5
2025	21	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	511	471	128	27	4	17	32	104	3	12	4	272	321	454	776	183	315	20	6	339	118	+10	+1	—	—	+14	2.6
2025	21	INTL	Caribes de Anzoategui	—	16	12	4	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	1	333	429	583	1.012	250	300	19	12	387	154	+1	-0	—	—	+0	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1B.J. Uptonlast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,858 PA	12	5,858	164	300	243	321	402	+14	+17	24.5	24.5
	/162	664	19	34	243	321	402	+1.6	+2.0	2.8	pk7: 25
#2Jonathan Villarlast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,934 PA	10	3,934	101	239	255	322	397	+24	-40	12.8	13.9
	/162	664	17	40	255	322	397	+4.0	-6.8	2.2	pk7: 15
#3Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	8	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
	/162	664	19	34	244	314	394	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#4Royce Claytonlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,920 PA	8	3,920	54	70	256	311	365	+18	+17	10.1	10.0
	/162	664	9	12	256	311	365	+3.1	+2.9	1.7	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	4,089	103	195	236	279	366	+32	+1	7.6	7.2
	/162	664	17	32	236	279	366	+5.3	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
#5Emilio Bonifáciolast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,780 PA	8	2,780	13	165	259	315	337	+15	-1	5.5	5.9
	/162	664	3	39	259	315	337	+3.5	-0.1	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	6	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	4	44	247	316	328	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jose Fernandez (OGILVIE)	22	50	50	50	30	235/276/338	103	305	8	24	25%	5%	64	-1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tito Polo 2017 · A	22	44→50	43→45	54→60	40	219/274/325	105	281	11	25	26%	5%	66	-0.6	222/274/329	107	300	9	28	28%	5%	66	-0.6	220/270/324	104	303	7	34	28%	5%	59	-0.4
✕Liover Peguero 2023 · AA	22	45→47	42→50	55	37	222/259/329	107	305	9	23	30%	4%	59	-1.1	215/261/340	125	286	14	18	29%	6%	64	-0.8	208/262/323	115	286	12	14	31%	6%	58	-0.8
✕Sergio Garcia 2014 · AAA	23	44	44→45	55→60	34	218/255/332	114	304	12	28	32%	4%	59	-1.1	215/245/310	95	300	9	22	30%	3%	48	-1.9	231/255/354	123	300	13	17	28%	2%	62	-0.4
✕Oswald Peraza 2022 · AAA	22	50→52	47→50	55→60	40	248/294/385	137	317	15	27	26%	5%	89	+1.0	225/284/365	140	282	17	28	26%	6%	81	+0.4	212/279/345	133	261	18	29	25%	6%	70	-0.3
✕José Rodríguez 2023 · AA	22	50→52	46→50	57→55	43	250/286/381	131	291	13	28	19%	5%	85	+0.7	227/260/350	123	283	14	26	25%	4%	66	-0.6	218/247/333	116	273	15	27	26%	3%	52	-0.7
✕Luisangel Acuña 2023 · AA	21	46→55	44→45	58→60	43	225/285/338	113	311	12	31	31%	8%	73	-0.1	243/288/343	100	312	9	35	24%	6%	76	+0.0	248/291/339	91	311	7	40	22%	5%	72	-0.2
✕Darell Hernaiz 2023 · AA	21	48→57	42→45	55→50	42	234/281/335	101	294	10	21	23%	5%	71	-0.3	248/300/349	101	297	9	14	18%	6%	82	+0.5	251/308/343	93	292	7	12	16%	7%	81	+0.3
✕Elliot Johnson 2006 · AA	22	46→53	44→45	59→60	39	226/272/343	117	302	11	28	28%	5%	69	-0.4	220/265/346	126	301	12	18	30%	5%	66	-0.6	234/287/347	113	305	11	30	26%	6%	73	-0.1
✕Johan Rojas 2023 · AA	22	43→53	42→45	63→65	42	210/257/316	106	264	9	35	24%	5%	56	-1.3	242/284/347	105	305	8	37	22%	5%	74	-0.1	253/294/353	100	318	7	41	22%	5%	77	+0.1
✕Abiatal Avelino 2017 · AA	22	47→54	40→45	49→55	43	229/272/321	92	283	7	21	22%	5%	63	-0.9	239/275/346	107	295	9	18	22%	4%	70	-0.3	243/280/354	111	298	10	20	22%	5%	71	-0.2
✕Rymer Liriano 2014 · AA	23	50→52	45→50	56→55	39	241/290/369	127	326	11	25	29%	5%	83	+0.6	233/294/359	126	339	13	17	33%	7%	83	+0.6	220/282/339	119	322	13	15	34%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Noel Cuevas 2014 · A	22	47→49	43→45	56→55	41	230/276/345	115	291	10	24	24%	5%	71	-0.3	220/258/314	94	289	7	17	25%	4%	55	-1.4	241/274/340	99	304	7	12	22%	3%	65	-0.5
✕Alen Hanson 2016 · AAA	23	46→51	45→50	59→60	40	229/262/356	127	280	11	25	23%	4%	67	-0.5	241/276/370	129	291	11	28	21%	4%	77	+0.1	252/286/391	139	300	12	30	20%	4%	83	+0.4
✕Ryan Brett 2014 · AA	22	52→58	42→45	59→60	44	249/294/358	109	301	8	27	20%	5%	82	+0.5	242/279/345	103	296	8	18	20%	4%	72	-0.2	230/262/326	96	287	8	15	22%	3%	57	-0.7
●Junior Lake 2012 · AA	22	45→54	42→50	54→55	35	218/258/325	106	309	10	20	32%	4%	58	-1.2	234/277/354	120	324	12	20	30%	5%	74	-0.1	231/302/372	141	287	15	19	24%	8%	87	+0.5
✕Franklin Barreto 2017 · AAA	21	46→48	42→55	49→50	38	229/266/335	106	293	10	19	26%	4%	64	-0.8	225/275/377	152	322	18	14	34%	5%	80	+0.4	217/273/384	168	316	20	13	36%	6%	78	+0.2
●Peter Bourjos 2009 · A	22	49→56	42→50	60	37	237/270/352	115	307	9	27	26%	4%	70	-0.3	244/288/378	134	302	11	27	22%	5%	84	+0.6	249/298/396	147	304	12	28	22%	5%	91	+1.0
✕Ryan LaMarre 2012 · AA	23	51→54	39→45	56→60	41	240/295/321	82	321	7	31	26%	6%	72	-0.2	229/291/313	84	304	6	23	25%	7%	69	-0.4	234/305/370	135	335	13	23	32%	7%	86	+0.4
✕Adam Engel 2015 · A	23	46→48	41→50	57→60	39	221/273/319	98	300	8	25	28%	5%	63	-0.8	202/259/302	100	296	7	30	32%	6%	53	-1.5	224/280/353	129	300	12	21	28%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Daniel Mateo 2023 · A	22	45→44	44→45	55	34	222/258/334	112	318	13	26	34%	4%	61	-1.0	198/229/302	104	282	11	22	33%	3%	40	-2.4	180/205/276	97	251	10	24	33%	2%	20	-2.2