Jose Olivares — OGILVIE

Jose Olivares P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 199 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 116

ERA5.24

FIP5.24

K%20.9%

BB%16.8%

K-BB%4.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL2535

CMD4040

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	10	5	15	73	15	10	1	50%	1.5	14.0%	17.1%	-3.2%	1.9%	5.40	5.14	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	10	5	15	73	15	10	1	50%	1.5	20.5%	13.7%	6.8%	1.4%	5.40	3.97	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	10	4	34	148	40	17	4	40%	3.4	18.4%	14.4%	4.0%	3.0%	4.01	4.99	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	10	4	34	148	40	17	4	40%	3.4	27.0%	11.5%	15.5%	2.7%	4.01	3.78	—
2023	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	21	20	85	376	83	43	15	95%	4.1	16.3%	13.5%	2.8%	5.3%	6.22	6.35	—
2023	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	21	20	85	376	83	43	15	95%	4.1	16.3%	13.5%	2.8%	5.3%	6.22	6.35	—
2023	20	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	21	20	85	376	83	43	15	95%	4.1	22.1%	11.4%	10.6%	4.0%	6.22	4.95	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	51	220	51	22	1	80%	3.4	17.7%	11.4%	6.3%	0.0%	3.91	3.05	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	51	220	51	22	1	80%	3.4	17.7%	11.4%	6.3%	0.0%	3.91	3.05	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	12	51	220	51	22	1	80%	3.4	23.2%	10.0%	13.2%	0.5%	3.91	2.65	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	21	90	388	107	57	4	95%	4.1	21.2%	16.9%	4.3%	1.3%	4.38	4.18	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	21	90	388	107	57	4	95%	4.1	21.2%	16.9%	4.3%	1.3%	4.38	4.18	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	21	90	388	107	57	4	95%	4.1	27.6%	14.7%	12.9%	1.0%	4.38	3.20	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	17	13	41	195	33	30	6	76%	2.4	12.6%	17.7%	-5.1%	3.9%	6.86	6.41	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	17	13	41	195	33	30	6	76%	2.4	12.6%	17.7%	-5.1%	3.9%	6.86	6.41	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	MIN	1	1	3	9	4	0	0	100%	3.0	44.4%	0.0%	44.4%	0.0%	0.00	-0.65	—
2026	23	AA RAW	MIN	16	12	38	186	29	30	6	75%	2.4	15.6%	16.1%	-0.5%	3.2%	7.41	5.60	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	MIN	1	1	6	24	5	4	1	100%	5.7	20.9%	16.8%	4.1%	2.6%	5.24	5.24	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	46	219	38	34	7	—	—	17.4%	15.5%	1.8%	3.0%	6.66	6.26	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIN	15	15	83	352	76	51	9	100%	5.6	21.6%	14.6%	7.0%	2.6%	5.00	4.91	-0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	84	356	78	47	9	100%	6.0	22.0%	13.2%	8.8%	2.6%	4.81	4.71	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	84	356	79	46	9	100%	6.0	22.2%	12.9%	9.3%	2.6%	4.72	4.67	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	83	350	78	45	9	100%	5.9	22.1%	12.8%	9.3%	2.7%	4.70	4.70	+0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	80	340	75	44	9	100%	6.2	22.0%	13.0%	9.0%	2.8%	4.75	4.78	+0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	77	325	77	40	9	100%	5.9	23.8%	12.4%	11.4%	2.9%	4.69	4.64	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	72	305	72	39	10	100%	6.0	23.4%	12.7%	10.7%	3.1%	4.77	4.82	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	37	156	34	23	4	100%	5.3	21.6%	14.6%	7.0%	2.6%	5.01	4.92	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	56	236	52	31	6	100%	5.6	22.0%	13.2%	8.8%	2.6%	4.82	4.72	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	67	283	63	36	7	100%	6.1	22.2%	12.9%	9.3%	2.6%	4.73	4.68	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	12	12	71	300	66	38	8	100%	5.9	22.1%	12.8%	9.3%	2.7%	4.71	4.71	+0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIN	12	12	72	304	67	39	8	100%	6.0	22.0%	13.0%	9.0%	2.8%	4.76	4.79	+0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIN	12	12	70	296	70	37	9	100%	5.8	23.8%	12.4%	11.4%	2.9%	4.70	4.65	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	67	283	66	36	9	100%	6.1	23.4%	12.7%	10.7%	3.1%	4.78	4.83	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	74	439	1855	418	241	51	100%	5.9	22.5%	13.0%	9.6%	2.8%	4.77	4.36	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	190	110	23	100%	5.9	22.5%	13.0%	9.6%	2.8%	4.77	4.36	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		95	75	316	1400	245	210	39	79%	3.3	17.5%	15.0%	2.5%	2.8%	5.13	5.03	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	48	200	887	155	133	24	79%	3.3	17.5%	15.0%	2.5%	2.8%	5.13	5.03	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Olivares (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.24	20.9%	16.8%	2.6%	—	4.76	21.9%	8.4%	252	-0.48	—	—	—
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	87
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	86
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	84
Gabriel Encinas R 2015 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	20.9%	17.0%	1.4%	.291	5.46	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.20	2.92	145	84
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	83
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	81
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	81
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	81
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.73	16.1%	4.0%	225	+1.44	2.86	357	81
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	80
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	80
Hunter Parks R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP	5.15	18.9%	19.3%	2.2%	.265	5.04	20.3%	3.9%	136	-0.11	4.62	298	80
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	80
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	79
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	79
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	79
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	79
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	79
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	78
Blake Whitney R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	22	SP	4.11	19.1%	16.1%	1.1%	.338	6.22	25.6%	13.5%	33	+2.11	3.46	268	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	78	22.3%	13.5%	1.05	4.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59