Jose Olivares
P
Wichita Wind Surge
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 199 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.9 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 63 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137127vR 118
ERA5.22
FIP5.22
K%20.9%
BB%16.6%
K-BB%4.3%
ROS IP63
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Twins | 10 | 5 | 15 | 73 | 15 | 10 | 1 | 50% | 1.5 | 14.0% | 17.1% | -3.2% | 1.9% | 5.40 | 5.14 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Twins | 10 | 5 | 15 | 73 | 15 | 10 | 1 | 50% | 1.5 | 20.5% | 13.7% | 6.8% | 1.4% | 5.40 | 3.97 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Twins | 10 | 4 | 34 | 148 | 40 | 17 | 4 | 40% | 3.4 | 18.4% | 14.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 4.01 | 4.69 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Twins | 10 | 4 | 34 | 148 | 40 | 17 | 4 | 40% | 3.4 | 27.0% | 11.5% | 15.5% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 3.78 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 21 | 20 | 85 | 376 | 83 | 43 | 15 | 95% | 4.1 | 16.3% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 6.22 | 6.42 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 21 | 20 | 85 | 376 | 83 | 43 | 15 | 95% | 4.1 | 22.1% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 4.0% | 6.22 | 4.95 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 12 | 51 | 220 | 51 | 22 | 1 | 80% | 3.4 | 17.7% | 11.4% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 3.91 | 3.05 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 12 | 51 | 220 | 51 | 22 | 1 | 80% | 3.4 | 23.2% | 10.0% | 13.2% | 0.5% | 3.91 | 2.65 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 22 | 21 | 90 | 388 | 107 | 57 | 4 | 95% | 4.1 | 21.2% | 16.9% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 4.38 | 4.21 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 22 | 21 | 90 | 388 | 107 | 57 | 4 | 95% | 4.1 | 27.6% | 14.7% | 12.9% | 1.0% | 4.38 | 3.20 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 17 | 13 | 41 | 195 | 33 | 30 | 6 | 76% | 2.4 | 12.6% | 17.7% | -5.1% | 3.9% | 6.86 | 6.41 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 63 | 267 | 56 | 44 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.9% | 16.6% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 5.22 | 5.22 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 16.6% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 5.23 | 5.23 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 104 | 462 | 89 | 74 | 13 | — | — | 19.2% | 16.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.86 | 5.68 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 20.9% | 16.6% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 5.23 | 4.85 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 59 | 40 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.7% | 14.5% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 5.00 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 66 | 277 | 61 | 37 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 13.3% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.81 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 66 | 277 | 62 | 36 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.5% | 13.0% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 4.72 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 65 | 273 | 61 | 35 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.5% | 13.0% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 26 | 17 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.7% | 14.5% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 5.01 | 4.92 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 8 | 8 | 44 | 186 | 41 | 25 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.2% | 13.3% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.82 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 49 | 29 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.5% | 13.0% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 4.73 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 52 | 30 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.5% | 13.0% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.71 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 31 | 31 | 181 | 764 | 170 | 102 | 20 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.3% | 13.3% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.79 | 4.36 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 188 | 113 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.3% | 13.3% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.79 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 95 | 75 | 316 | 1400 | 245 | 210 | 38 | 79% | 3.3 | 17.5% | 15.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 5.13 | 5.03 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 48 | 200 | 887 | 155 | 133 | 24 | 79% | 3.3 | 17.5% | 15.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 5.13 | 5.03 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Olivares (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.22 | 20.9% | 16.6% | 2.6% | — | 4.76 | 22.1% | 8.5% | 196 | -0.46 | — | — | — |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2025 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 87 |
| Carlson Reed R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 85 |
| Gabriel Encinas R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 20.9% | 17.0% | 1.8% | .291 | 5.52 | 17.3% | -10.3% | 47 | +1.07 | 2.92 | 145 | 85 |
| J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.91 | 18.2% | 16.0% | 2.4% | .259 | 5.03 | 15.9% | 0.6% | 115 | +0.12 | 4.62 | 195 | 84 |
| Aidan Foeller R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.74 | 22.7% | 19.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.45 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 50 | -0.29 | 4.45 | 149 | 84 |
| Alex McFarlane R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.91 | 21.9% | 19.2% | 2.2% | .344 | 4.02 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 108 | -0.89 | 3.64 | 159 | 83 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2027 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 82 |
| David Lebron R 2028 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 81 |
| Jimmy Endersby R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 2.0% | .310 | 6.03 | 16.4% | 3.7% | 225 | +1.83 | 2.73 | 357 | 81 |
| R.J. Freure R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.19 | 21.7% | 18.5% | 2.9% | .286 | 5.88 | 21.4% | 4.2% | 107 | +0.69 | 5.19 | 196 | 80 |
| Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .241 | 4.68 | 14.8% | -0.6% | 123 | -0.25 | 4.52 | 196 | 80 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 80 |
| Dean Deetz R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 22.2% | 13.7% | 2.5% | .298 | 4.84 | 29.1% | 10.7% | 68 | +0.50 | 2.64 | 281 | 80 |
| Kolton Curtis R 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.29 | 19.9% | 17.4% | 1.2% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 148 | 79 |
| Dane Acker R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.44 | 19.3% | 15.2% | 3.7% | .284 | 4.44 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 215 | -1.00 | 4.23 | 257 | 79 |
| Winyer Chourio R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.50 | 23.5% | 16.3% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 156 | 79 |
| Roki Sasaki R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 17.5% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .253 | 5.33 | 22.7% | 13.3% | 81 | +0.06 | 5.27 | 138 | 79 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 79 |
| Alex Vallecillo R 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.6% | 16.3% | 2.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.47 | 152 | 78 |
| Blake Whitney R 2025 · 4.11 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.11 | 19.1% | 16.1% | 1.1% | .338 | 6.32 | 25.6% | 13.5% | 33 | +2.21 | 3.39 | 268 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 65 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 1.01 | 4.89 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |