Jose Olivares — OGILVIE

Jose Olivares P Cedar Rapids Kernels

+0.4 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 199 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.5 · 2029

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.9%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%9.2%

IP90

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.5peak

2029

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Twins	10	5	15	73	15	10	1	14.0%	17.1%	1.9%	5.40	5.14	-0.0
2022	19	ROK	FCL Twins	10	4	34	148	40	17	4	18.4%	14.4%	2.5%	4.01	4.71	+0.1
2023	20	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	21	20	85	376	83	43	15	16.3%	13.5%	5.3%	6.22	6.34	-1.1
2024	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	15	12	51	220	51	22	1	17.7%	11.4%	0.0%	3.91	3.05	+1.1
2025	22	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	21	90	388	107	57	4	21.2%	16.9%	1.3%	4.38	4.19	+1.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	MIN	16	16	90	381	83	48	10	21.9%	12.6%	2.6%	4.63	4.63	+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	MIN	20	20	109	459	103	52	12	22.4%	11.3%	2.6%	4.49	4.42	+1.1
2028	25	MLB	MIN	22	22	122	515	117	54	13	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	4.37	4.30	+1.4
2029	26	MLB	MIN	23	23	129	545	125	56	14	22.9%	10.2%	2.6%	4.31	4.27	+1.5
2030	27	MLB	MIN	24	24	132	557	128	57	15	22.9%	10.2%	2.6%	4.29	4.28	+1.5
2031	28	MLB	MIN	24	24	132	557	128	57	15	22.9%	10.2%	2.7%	4.30	4.31	+1.5
2032	29	MLB	MIN	23	23	129	545	124	56	15	22.8%	10.3%	2.7%	4.33	4.35	+1.4
2033	30	MLB	MIN	23	23	125	528	119	55	15	22.6%	10.4%	2.8%	4.38	4.41	+1.3
2034	31	MLB	MIN	22	22	121	510	114	54	14	22.3%	10.5%	2.8%	4.44	4.49	+1.1
2035	32	MLB	MIN	21	21	116	489	108	52	14	22.1%	10.7%	2.9%	4.52	4.57	+1.0
2036	33	MLB	MIN	20	20	111	467	102	51	14	21.7%	10.9%	3.0%	4.61	4.67	+0.8
2037	34	MLB	MIN	19	19	105	444	95	49	14	21.4%	11.1%	3.1%	4.71	4.78	+0.6
2038	35	MLB	MIN	18	18	99	419	88	47	13	21.0%	11.3%	3.2%	4.83	4.90	+0.4
2039	36	MLB	MIN	17	17	93	392	81	45	13	20.6%	11.6%	3.3%	4.95	5.04	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			78	62	275	1205	220	175	30	18.3%	14.5%	2.5%	4.88	4.77	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—			57	45	200	876	160	127	22	18.3%	14.5%	2.5%	4.88	4.77	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Olivares (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	21.9%	12.6%	2.6%	—	4.33	22.7%	12.1%	360	-0.30	—	—	—
Corey Black R 2026 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP-	4.18	22.1%	13.9%	2.1%	.310	3.55	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.55	139	96
Jimmy Endersby R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP-	4.24	20.9%	14.1%	2.0%	.310	5.78	16.4%	3.7%	225	+1.54	2.86	357	95
Nolan DeVos R 2025 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.82	12.3%	-1.5%	12	+1.65	4.17	110	93
Kyle Bradish R 2025 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.87	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.68	2.16	615	92
Max Bain R 2026 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP-	5.17	20.5%	15.2%	3.4%	.291	6.72	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.55	5.17	174	92
Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	91
Will Schomberg R 2026 · 4.84 FIP	23	SP-	4.84	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.85	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.85	206	90
Zach McCambley R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.4%	13.6%	3.3%	.277	3.30	25.0%	12.6%	123	-1.69	2.58	314	90
Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP-	4.72	20.2%	12.2%	3.3%	.269	4.89	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.28	448	89
Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP-	4.78	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.31	14.0%	1.0%	106	+0.53	3.85	291	89
Dean Deetz R 2026 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP-	4.33	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.74	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	89
CJ Van Eyk R 2025 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	21.8%	12.7%	3.6%	.302	4.62	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.21	2.74	347	89
Zach Fruit R 2027 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP-	4.28	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.07	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.79	4.28	151	88
Brody Hopkins R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	23.2%	13.4%	1.9%	.275	5.49	23.1%	0.8%	18	+1.63	3.46	249	88
Levi Stoudt R 2026 · 4.60 FIP	23	SP-	4.60	19.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.257	5.68	16.1%	5.2%	289	+1.08	4.35	395	87
Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.77	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.59	1.92	778	87
Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP-	4.06	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.21	19.1%	12.1%	101	+0.15	4.06	194	87
Gabriel Encinas R 2026 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP-	4.28	20.9%	17.0%	1.5%	.291	5.47	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.19	2.92	145	87
Trace Bright R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	4.43	18.0%	0.6%	99	-0.08	4.24	311	87
R.J. Freure R 2025 · 5.14 FIP	22	SP-	5.14	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	5.83	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.69	5.14	196	86

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.5	$13M	+$12M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.4	$13M	+$11M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.3	$13M	+$9M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.1	$11M	+$7M
Totals		$13M		$78M	+$65M