Anyelo Encarnación
SS Peoria Chiefs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A+/A/ROKSTL | 354 | .220/.333/.327 | 6 | 12 | 38 | — | .166/.254/.240 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+/ASTL | 419 | .213/.328/.325 | 7 | 20 | 43 | — | .171/.261/.266 |
| 2026 | 22 | A+/ROKSTL | 281 | .238/.367/.420 | 9 | 19 | 71 | — | .190/.295/.327 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBSTL | 1 | .173/.265/.271 | 0 | 0 | 55 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBSTL | 61 | .179/.271/.284 | 1 | 2 | 60 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 25 | MLBSTL | 117 | .183/.274/.293 | 2 | 3 | 63 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cardinals Blue | — | 144 | 122 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 48 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 205 | 326 | 303 | 630 | 98 | 329 | 33 | 15 | 295 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | — | 138 | 99 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 33 | 29 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 323 | 504 | 485 | 989 | 162 | 437 | 21 | 24 | 435 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | — | 136 | 112 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 36 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 205 | 336 | 339 | 675 | 134 | 280 | 26 | 14 | 308 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 88 | 72 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 208 | 337 | 347 | 684 | 139 | 318 | 32 | 15 | 309 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 209 | 181 | 39 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 54 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 215 | 317 | 282 | 599 | 66 | 296 | 26 | 11 | 282 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | — | 57 | 47 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 255 | 386 | 468 | 854 | 213 | 429 | 40 | 18 | 381 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 122 | 114 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 37 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 219 | 270 | 307 | 578 | 88 | 307 | 30 | 6 | 263 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 297 | 243 | 51 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 91 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 210 | 351 | 333 | 685 | 123 | 313 | 31 | 16 | 319 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 263 | 218 | 51 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 84 | 5 | 18 | 3 | 234 | 358 | 413 | 771 | 179 | 328 | 32 | 14 | 345 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | — | 18 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 308 | 500 | 538 | 1.038 | 231 | 500 | 28 | 11 | 464 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals Blue | — | 144 | 128 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 56 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 125 | 222 | 172 | 394 | 47 | 221 | 39 | 11 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals | — | 138 | 108 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 36 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 213 | 370 | 287 | 657 | 74 | 293 | 26 | 17 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 136 | 119 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 52 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 143 | 239 | 218 | 457 | 76 | 231 | 38 | 9 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 88 | 75 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 173 | 279 | 293 | 572 | 120 | 277 | 40 | 11 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 209 | 188 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 76 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 165 | 245 | 202 | 447 | 37 | 271 | 36 | 8 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 57 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 157 | 246 | 294 | 540 | 137 | 335 | 58 | 11 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 122 | 116 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 49 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 181 | 221 | 259 | 480 | 78 | 289 | 40 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 297 | 257 | 43 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 124 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 167 | 277 | 268 | 546 | 101 | 294 | 42 | 12 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 263 | 228 | 43 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 107 | 5 | 18 | 3 | 189 | 288 | 325 | 613 | 136 | 299 | 41 | 10 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 18 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 214 | 389 | 357 | 746 | 143 | 363 | 39 | 6 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals Blue | — | 144 | 128 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 56 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 125 | 222 | 172 | 394 | 47 | 222 | 39 | 11 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Cardinals Blue | — | 144 | 122 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 48 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 205 | 326 | 303 | 630 | 98 | 329 | 33 | 15 | 295 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals | — | 138 | 108 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 36 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 213 | 370 | 287 | 657 | 74 | 311 | 26 | 17 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Cardinals | — | 138 | 99 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 33 | 29 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 323 | 504 | 485 | 989 | 162 | 437 | 21 | 24 | 435 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 136 | 119 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 52 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 143 | 239 | 218 | 457 | 76 | 239 | 38 | 9 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Cardinals | — | 136 | 112 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 36 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 205 | 336 | 339 | 675 | 134 | 280 | 26 | 14 | 308 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 354 | 314 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 144 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 166 | 254 | 239 | 492 | 73 | 287 | 41 | 9 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 354 | 300 | 66 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 47 | 105 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 220 | 333 | 327 | 660 | 107 | 316 | 30 | 13 | 304 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 419 | 373 | 62 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 40 | 173 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 166 | 256 | 249 | 505 | 83 | 292 | 41 | 10 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 419 | 357 | 76 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 56 | 128 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 213 | 328 | 325 | 653 | 112 | 311 | 31 | 13 | 303 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 281 | 242 | 46 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 114 | 8 | 19 | 3 | 190 | 295 | 326 | 621 | 136 | 315 | 41 | 10 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 281 | 231 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 89 | 8 | 19 | 3 | 238 | 367 | 420 | 787 | 182 | 338 | 32 | 14 | 352 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals Blue | — | 144 | 127 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 56 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 126 | 222 | 173 | 395 | 47 | 221 | 39 | 11 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals | — | 138 | 110 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 36 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 209 | 370 | 282 | 652 | 73 | 293 | 26 | 17 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 136 | 120 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 52 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 142 | 239 | 217 | 455 | 75 | 231 | 38 | 9 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 354 | 314 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 144 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 166 | 254 | 239 | 492 | 73 | 283 | 41 | 9 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 419 | 371 | 62 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 40 | 173 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 167 | 256 | 251 | 507 | 84 | 293 | 41 | 10 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 281 | 243 | 46 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 114 | 8 | 19 | 3 | 189 | 295 | 325 | 620 | 136 | 303 | 41 | 10 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 354 | 314 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 144 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 166 | 254 | 239 | 492 | 73 | 283 | 41 | 9 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 419 | 371 | 62 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 40 | 173 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 167 | 256 | 251 | 507 | 84 | 293 | 41 | 10 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 281 | 243 | 46 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 114 | 8 | 19 | 3 | 189 | 295 | 325 | 620 | 136 | 303 | 41 | 10 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | STL | 0% | 391 | 345 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 37 | 144 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 173 | 265 | 274 | 539 | 100 | 269 | 37 | 9 | 250 | 55 | -21 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | STL | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 173 | 265 | 271 | 536 | 98 | 271 | 0 | 0 | 249 | 55 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | STL | 30% | 202 | 178 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 72 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 179 | 271 | 287 | 558 | 108 | 271 | 36 | 9 | 257 | 60 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | STL | 44% | 265 | 233 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 93 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 183 | 274 | 296 | 570 | 113 | 273 | 35 | 10 | 262 | 63 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | STL | 51% | 315 | 278 | 52 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 108 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 186 | 277 | 302 | 578 | 115 | 274 | 34 | 10 | 265 | 66 | -13 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | STL | 52% | 338 | 298 | 56 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 115 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 188 | 278 | 305 | 582 | 116 | 274 | 34 | 9 | 267 | 67 | -13 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | STL | 53% | 349 | 308 | 59 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 33 | 117 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 190 | 278 | 305 | 584 | 116 | 275 | 34 | 9 | 267 | 67 | -14 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +8 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | STL | 53% | 346 | 306 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 33 | 117 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 187 | 275 | 299 | 575 | 112 | 273 | 34 | 10 | 264 | 65 | -15 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +7 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | STL | 30% | 61 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 179 | 271 | 284 | 555 | 105 | 273 | 36 | 10 | 256 | 60 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | STL | 44% | 117 | 103 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 41 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 183 | 274 | 293 | 567 | 109 | 275 | 35 | 9 | 261 | 63 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | STL | 51% | 160 | 142 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 55 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 186 | 276 | 298 | 574 | 112 | 275 | 34 | 9 | 264 | 66 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | STL | 52% | 177 | 156 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 60 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 188 | 278 | 301 | 579 | 113 | 276 | 34 | 10 | 265 | 67 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | STL | 53% | 186 | 164 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 63 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 190 | 278 | 302 | 580 | 112 | 276 | 34 | 10 | 266 | 67 | -7 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | STL | 53% | 182 | 161 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 62 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 187 | 275 | 296 | 572 | 109 | 275 | 34 | 9 | 262 | 65 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 883 | 780 | 147 | 29 | 5 | 16 | 84 | 303 | 11 | 23 | 5 | 188 | 277 | 300 | 577 | 112 | 281 | 34 | 10 | 263 | 57 | -37 | +3 | -1 | +9 | +19 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 574 | 108 | 21 | 4 | 12 | 62 | 223 | 8 | 17 | 4 | 188 | 276 | 301 | 578 | 113 | 280 | 34 | 10 | 263 | 57 | -27 | +2 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3455 | 3033 | 540 | 96 | 22 | 57 | 342 | 1259 | 50 | 128 | 33 | 178 | 272 | 281 | 553 | 103 | 278 | 36 | 10 | 253 | 57 | -85 | +6 | -2 | +21 | +43 | -1.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 571 | 102 | 18 | 4 | 11 | 64 | 237 | 9 | 24 | 6 | 179 | 271 | 282 | 553 | 103 | 279 | 36 | 10 | 253 | 57 | -28 | +2 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Peoria Chiefs · 263 PAwOBA .340 → .271 (−69)K% 31.9% → 40.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.94% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 40.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 10.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.90% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.019 | ×1.012 | 22.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.019 | ×1.012 | 4.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.019 | ×1.012 | 1.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 5.44% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .340 → .271; ISO .179 → .138; BABIP .328 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Cardinals · 18 PAwOBA .453 → .304 (−150)K% 27.8% → 40.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.78% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 40.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 6.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 16.67% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 11.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 9.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 37.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 26.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .453 → .304; ISO .231 → .152; BABIP .500 → .363. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 APalm Beach Cardinals · 297 PAwOBA .312 → .244 (−68)K% 30.6% → 41.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.64% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 41.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.50% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 11.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.37% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×1.001 | ×1.015 | 21.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.92% | ÷0.896 | ×0.830 | ×1.001 | ×1.015 | 5.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.97% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.001 | ×1.015 | 2.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.29% | ÷0.973 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.74% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .312 → .244; ISO .123 → .099; BABIP .313 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Peoria Chiefs · 122 PAwOBA .256 → .204 (−52)K% 30.3% → 40.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.33% | ÷0.951 | ×1.270 | — | — | 40.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.74% | ÷1.027 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 4.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.82% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.68% | ÷1.010 | ×0.920 | ×1.041 | ×1.027 | 24.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.19% | ÷1.083 | ×0.810 | ×1.041 | ×1.027 | 4.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.926 | ×0.850 | ×1.041 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.60% | ÷0.857 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.49% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 102, 2B 117, 3B 85, K 90, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .256 → .204; ISO .088 → .068; BABIP .307 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 APalm Beach Cardinals · 209 PAwOBA .275 → .214 (−61)K% 25.8% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.84% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 36.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.48% | ÷0.999 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 8.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.44% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.41% | ÷1.040 | ×0.920 | ×1.039 | ×1.030 | 23.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.72% | ÷1.153 | ×0.830 | ×1.039 | ×1.030 | 3.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.946 | ×0.910 | ×1.039 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.57% | ÷1.036 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.25% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 108, 2B 131, 3B 89, K 94, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .275 → .214; ISO .066 → .046; BABIP .296 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Peoria Chiefs · 88 PAwOBA .305 → .245 (−60)K% 31.8% → 40.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.82% | ÷1.006 | ×1.270 | — | — | 40.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.77% | ÷0.930 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 11.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.14% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×0.963 | ×1.042 | 16.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.963 | ×1.042 | 9.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.963 | ×1.042 | 1.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.27% | ÷0.993 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.91% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 101, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .305 → .245; ISO .139 → .106; BABIP .318 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Cardinals · 57 PAwOBA .372 → .226 (−146)K% 40.4% → 57.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.35% | ÷1.018 | ×1.440 | — | — | 57.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.54% | ÷1.043 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 10.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷0.998 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 27.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.016 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.935 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.50% | ÷0.975 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 9.95% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 100, 2B 103, 3B 87, K 104, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .372 → .226; ISO .213 → .129; BABIP .429 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Cardinals · 136 PAwOBA .303 → .216 (−88)K% 26.5% → 38.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.47% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.21% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 15.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 5.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 2.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 2.07% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .303 → .216; ISO .134 → .095; BABIP .280 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).