Deivy Cruz
P
Delmarva Shorebirds
+0.1
WAR
Age 22
LHP
5'11" / 154 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.3 · 2028
ERA4.74
FIP4.74
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.2%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%9.1%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2028
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles 1 | 13 | 12 | 45 | 198 | 63 | 24 | 2 | 21.6% | 15.2% | 1.4% | 5.20 | 3.97 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 18 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 16 | 15 | 67 | 295 | 69 | 45 | 4 | 17.0% | 18.2% | 1.7% | 3.78 | 4.88 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 25 | 16 | 97 | 405 | 103 | 50 | 7 | 18.8% | 14.6% | 2.2% | 3.62 | 4.57 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 32 | 0 | 34 | 158 | 46 | 32 | 1 | 22.8% | 23.5% | 0.9% | 5.03 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 29 | 0 | 35 | 168 | 40 | 31 | 1 | 17.6% | 21.8% | 0.9% | 3.57 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | BAL | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 32 | 19 | 4 | 22.2% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 4.74 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | BAL | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 34 | 17 | 4 | 23.0% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 36 | 16 | 4 | 23.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 37 | 16 | 4 | 24.0% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 37 | 15 | 4 | 24.2% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.22 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 37 | 15 | 4 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 36 | 15 | 4 | 24.1% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 35 | 15 | 4 | 24.0% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 34 | 15 | 4 | 23.8% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 31 | 14 | 4 | 23.3% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 30 | — | 30 | 126 | 29 | 14 | 4 | 23.0% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 115 | 43 | 278 | 1224 | 235 | 216 | 19 | 19.2% | 17.7% | 1.6% | 4.08 | 4.59 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 31 | 200 | 881 | 169 | 155 | 14 | 19.2% | 17.7% | 1.6% | 4.08 | 4.59 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Deivy Cruz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 22.2% | 13.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.33 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 108 | -0.41 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Hennigan L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.03 | 22.0% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .341 | 3.57 | 17.5% | 5.8% | 119 | -0.46 | 3.46 | 265 | 90 |
| Seth Clark L 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.22 | 22.5% | 15.0% | 2.0% | .287 | 5.22 | 18.4% | 0.6% | 82 | +1.00 | 4.22 | 128 | 90 |
| Matt Osterberg L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.88 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 1.7% | .255 | 4.08 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 274 | +0.20 | 3.72 | 294 | 89 |
| Sean Mellen L 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.59 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.2% | .364 | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.58 | 4.01 | 101 | 88 |
| Brendan Nail L 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.87 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 3.1% | .305 | 3.85 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 87 | -1.02 | 3.49 | 165 | 87 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 86 |
| Daniel Zamora L 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.56 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .294 | 2.75 | 24.7% | 16.8% | 135 | -0.81 | 2.15 | 310 | 86 |
| Lucas Knowles L 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.87 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 1.6% | .366 | 4.21 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 177 | +0.34 | 3.37 | 208 | 86 |
| Brian Marconi L 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.91 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .265 | 5.03 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.12 | 3.91 | 101 | 85 |
| Hogan Harris L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.82 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .235 | 3.70 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.12 | 3.15 | 442 | 85 |
| Andrew Walling L 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.20 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 2.2% | .272 | 3.66 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 95 | -0.54 | 3.14 | 151 | 84 |
| Zach Morris L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.59 | 18.5% | 10.1% | 1.4% | .286 | 4.35 | 13.9% | 2.4% | 84 | +0.76 | 3.35 | 109 | 84 |
| James Ziemba L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.73 | 18.3% | 12.5% | 1.1% | .309 | 5.18 | 11.7% | -0.7% | 78 | +1.45 | 3.73 | 110 | 84 |
| Trevor Seidenberger L 2027 · 4.67 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.67 | 18.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .248 | 6.31 | 13.1% | -1.8% | 52 | +1.64 | 4.67 | 101 | 83 |
| Ignacio Briceno L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.54 | 17.3% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .270 | 3.28 | 14.7% | 3.5% | 76 | -1.26 | 2.39 | 156 | 83 |
| Brandon Neeck L 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.19 | 21.0% | 13.9% | 2.0% | .419 | 4.91 | 19.4% | 5.9% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.79 | 133 | 83 |
| Michel Gelabert L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 12.1% | 2.4% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 107 | 83 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2029 · 5.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.18 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.10 | 3.46 | 145 | 83 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.10 | 4.04 | 158 | 83 |
| Joe Kemlage L 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.41 | 19.4% | 13.5% | 2.2% | .278 | 5.32 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 65 | +0.91 | 4.41 | 128 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.6M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $6M | +$2M | ||