Caedmon Parker

P Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.7 · 2031

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#696ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	MIX2 levels	30	16	92	3.73	3.57	26.4%	10.3%	—	K 19.7% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.76
2027PROJ	24	MLBCWS	—	—	0	4.91	4.91	20.6%	11.8%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBCWS	5	5	29	4.80	4.75	21.2%	10.8%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBCWS	7	7	42	4.72	4.69	21.4%	10.5%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.4M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 1.2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 95%

CompsRay Gaither (age 24) · Tanner Burns (age 24) · Tanner Hall (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%20.6%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%8.8%

Proj IP64

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.3M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	16	92	397	105	41	10	53%	3.1	19.7%	12.1%	7.6%	3.2%	3.73	4.76	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	16	92	397	105	41	10	53%	3.1	19.7%	12.1%	7.6%	3.2%	3.73	4.76	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	16	92	397	105	41	10	53%	3.1	26.4%	10.3%	16.1%	2.5%	3.73	3.57	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.6%	11.8%	8.8%	3.1%	4.91	4.91	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CWS	12	12	68	289	61	31	9	100%	5.7	21.2%	10.8%	10.4%	3.0%	4.77	4.72	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	CWS	11	11	64	271	58	28	8	100%	5.8	21.4%	10.5%	10.9%	3.0%	4.69	4.66	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	CWS	10	10	61	259	55	27	8	100%	6.1	21.4%	10.4%	11.0%	3.1%	4.68	4.68	+0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	CWS	11	11	64	270	63	26	9	100%	5.8	23.3%	9.7%	13.6%	3.2%	4.56	4.48	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	CWS	10	10	59	250	58	25	8	100%	5.9	23.1%	9.9%	13.2%	3.3%	4.59	4.61	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	CWS	9	9	53	225	51	23	8	100%	5.9	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	3.5%	4.71	4.79	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	CWS	8	8	47	198	44	21	7	100%	5.9	22.3%	10.6%	11.8%	3.8%	4.88	4.99	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	CWS	5	5	29	122	26	13	4	100%	5.8	21.2%	10.8%	10.4%	3.1%	4.80	4.75	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	CWS	7	7	42	177	38	19	5	100%	6.0	21.4%	10.5%	10.9%	3.1%	4.72	4.69	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	47	198	43	21	6	100%	5.9	21.4%	10.4%	11.0%	3.1%	4.71	4.71	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	54	228	53	22	7	100%	6.0	23.3%	9.7%	13.6%	3.2%	4.59	4.51	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	52	220	51	22	7	100%	5.8	23.1%	9.9%	13.2%	3.4%	4.62	4.64	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	48	203	46	21	7	100%	6.0	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	3.6%	4.74	4.82	+0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	CWS	7	7	43	182	41	19	7	100%	6.1	22.3%	10.6%	11.8%	3.8%	4.92	5.03	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	53	315	1332	297	136	45	100%	6.0	22.3%	10.2%	12.1%	3.3%	4.72	4.35	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	188	86	29	100%	6.0	22.3%	10.2%	12.1%	3.3%	4.72	4.35	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		30	16	92	397	78	48	13	53%	3.1	19.7%	12.1%	7.6%	3.2%	3.73	4.76	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	35	200	866	171	105	28	53%	3.1	19.7%	12.1%	7.6%	3.2%	3.73	4.76	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 75 IPFIP 3.54 → 4.76 (+1.22)K% 26.4% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.38%	—	×0.740	19.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.43%	—	×1.180	12.31%
HR / BF /BF	2.45%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.19%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.54 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 16 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.73 (+1.09)K% 26.8% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.76%	—	×0.770	20.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.86%	—	×1.150	11.34%
HR / BF /BF	2.82%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.52%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caedmon Parker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	20.6%	11.8%	3.1%	—	4.69	21.3%	10.8%	194	-0.22	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	89
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	4.95	18.3%	5.2%	131	-0.32	4.34	382	85
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	85
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	83
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	83
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	82
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	81
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	81
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	81
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	81
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	81
Peyton Pallette R 2024 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	20.7%	10.9%	3.0%	.309	3.59	25.9%	13.5%	119	-0.79	3.54	273	81
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	81
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	81
Thomas Ponticelli R 2021 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	17.2%	9.7%	3.0%	.264	5.25	15.1%	3.8%	163	+0.75	2.59	367	80
Austin Bergner R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	24	SW	4.99	24.0%	10.9%	4.6%	.277	4.87	21.6%	10.0%	274	-0.12	4.06	464	79
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	79
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	79
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	79
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	60	22.0%	10.5%	1.25	4.72
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*