Caedmon Parker — OGILVIE

Caedmon Parker P Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.2 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%22.1%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%11.2%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	30	16	92	397	105	41	10	53%	3.1	19.7%	12.1%	7.6%	3.2%	3.73	4.76	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	30	16	92	397	105	41	10	53%	3.1	19.7%	12.1%	7.6%	3.2%	3.73	4.76	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	CWS	18	16	75	326	86	34	8	89%	4.2	26.4%	10.4%	16.0%	2.5%	3.82	3.54	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	CWS	12	0	16	71	19	7	2	0%	1.4	26.8%	9.9%	16.9%	2.8%	3.31	3.64	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	92	388	88	39	12	100%	5.8	22.6%	10.0%	12.6%	3.0%	4.53	4.47	+0.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	93	393	90	37	12	100%	5.8	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	3.0%	4.43	4.37	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	93	393	91	37	12	100%	5.8	23.1%	9.3%	13.8%	3.0%	4.37	4.34	+0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	92	387	89	36	12	100%	6.1	23.1%	9.3%	13.7%	3.0%	4.37	4.38	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	89	375	86	36	12	100%	5.9	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	3.1%	4.42	4.46	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	CWS	14	14	85	358	81	35	12	100%	6.1	22.7%	9.7%	13.0%	3.3%	4.52	4.59	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	CWS	13	13	80	337	82	31	12	100%	6.1	24.3%	9.2%	15.1%	3.5%	4.51	4.50	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	CWS	12	12	74	314	75	30	12	100%	6.2	23.9%	9.6%	14.4%	3.7%	4.62	4.70	+0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	CWS	11	11	69	290	68	29	11	100%	6.3	23.5%	10.0%	13.5%	3.9%	4.80	4.93	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	CWS	7	7	39	165	37	16	5	100%	5.6	22.6%	10.0%	12.6%	3.0%	4.56	4.50	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	62	262	60	25	8	100%	5.6	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	3.0%	4.46	4.40	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	CWS	12	12	74	312	72	29	9	100%	6.2	23.1%	9.3%	13.8%	3.0%	4.40	4.37	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	78	329	76	31	10	100%	6.0	23.1%	9.3%	13.7%	3.1%	4.40	4.41	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	79	334	76	32	11	100%	6.1	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	3.2%	4.45	4.49	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	77	325	74	32	11	100%	5.9	22.7%	9.7%	13.0%	3.3%	4.55	4.62	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	CWS	12	12	74	312	76	29	11	100%	6.2	24.3%	9.2%	15.1%	3.5%	4.54	4.53	+0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	CWS	12	12	69	291	70	28	11	100%	5.8	23.9%	9.6%	14.4%	3.8%	4.66	4.74	+0.2
2035	32	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	64	270	63	27	11	100%	5.8	23.5%	10.0%	13.5%	4.0%	4.84	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		103	103	616	2603	605	248	87	100%	6.0	23.3%	9.5%	13.7%	3.3%	4.53	4.17	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	196	80	28	100%	6.0	23.3%	9.5%	13.7%	3.3%	4.53	4.17	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		30	16	92	397	78	48	13	53%	3.1	19.7%	12.1%	7.6%	3.2%	3.73	4.76	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	35	200	866	171	105	28	53%	3.1	19.7%	12.1%	7.6%	3.2%	3.73	4.76	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caedmon Parker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	22.1%	10.9%	3.0%	—	4.39	22.9%	13.3%	278	-0.26	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	86
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	86
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	85
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	84
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	83
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	80
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	80
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	79
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	79
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	79
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	78
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	78
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	77
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	77
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	77
Keith Rogalla R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	23	SP-	3.52	21.2%	11.7%	1.3%	.344	3.68	18.0%	5.9%	65	+0.16	3.10	113	77
Greyfer Eregua R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP-	4.87	18.3%	9.3%	3.9%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	126	77
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	76
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	76
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	79	23.2%	9.6%	1.25	4.50
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04