Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 5 | 5 | 14 | 58 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 2.9 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 2.5% | 3.77 | 3.82 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 5 | 5 | 14 | 58 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 2.9 | 25.9% | 6.9% | 19.0% | 1.7% | 3.77 | 2.75 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 12 | 12 | 44 | 193 | 30 | 25 | 4 | 100% | 3.6 | 12.6% | 14.2% | -1.7% | 2.0% | 3.92 | 4.92 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 12 | 12 | 44 | 193 | 30 | 25 | 4 | 100% | 3.6 | 15.5% | 13.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.92 | 4.63 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 6 | 43 | 195 | 43 | 30 | 3 | 35% | 2.5 | 19.2% | 16.4% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 4.78 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 6 | 43 | 195 | 43 | 30 | 3 | 35% | 2.5 | 22.1% | 15.4% | 6.7% | 1.5% | 4.78 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 16 | 62 | 263 | 50 | 21 | 10 | 100% | 3.9 | 14.3% | 9.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.82 | 5.88 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 16 | 62 | 263 | 50 | 21 | 10 | 100% | 3.9 | 19.0% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 3.8% | 4.82 | 4.61 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 49 | 0 | 48 | 212 | 45 | 26 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 6.6% | 0.5% | 3.02 | 3.36 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 49 | 0 | 48 | 212 | 45 | 26 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 12.3% | 9.0% | 0.5% | 3.02 | 3.12 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 35 | 0 | 41 | 175 | 42 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 4.14 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | LAA | 12 | 0 | 13 | 53 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 4.20 | 4.16 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | LAA | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 4.20 | 4.16 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 54 | 228 | 54 | 27 | 7 | — | — | 23.7% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 4.15 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 54 | 228 | 54 | 27 | 7 | — | — | 23.8% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 4.15 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 51 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 51 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 4.57 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 49 | 0 | 52 | 217 | 49 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.60 | 4.64 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 47 | 0 | 49 | 208 | 46 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.70 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 48 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 4.57 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 47 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.60 | 4.64 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 44 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.70 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 220 | 0 | 237 | 1016 | 224 | 121 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 4.55 | 4.13 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 185 | 0 | 200 | 856 | 189 | 102 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 4.55 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 134 | 39 | 252 | 1096 | 194 | 136 | 29 | 29% | 1.9 | 17.7% | 12.4% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 4.14 | 4.66 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 106 | 31 | 200 | 870 | 154 | 108 | 23 | 29% | 1.9 | 17.7% | 12.4% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 4.14 | 4.66 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sam Bachman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 21.8% | 12.8% | 2.3% | — | 4.66 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 154 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Seth Halvorsen R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.15 | 23.0% | 12.9% | 2.5% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 111 | 81 |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2029 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.99 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.88 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.89 | 3.99 | 130 | 75 |
| Manny Barreda R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.91 | 21.2% | 14.7% | 3.2% | .286 | 3.68 | 19.6% | 9.5% | 186 | -1.23 | 3.19 | 376 | 74 |
| Tyler Kinley R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .295 | 3.79 | 25.0% | 11.7% | 140 | +0.05 | 1.58 | 578 | 73 |
| Tyler Bashlor R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.91 | 20.7% | 11.7% | 3.8% | .258 | 3.97 | 23.7% | 13.0% | 38 | -0.94 | 2.59 | 253 | 73 |
| Thyago Vieira R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.09 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 311 | 72 |
| Calvin Faucher R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.66 | 22.8% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .330 | 3.43 | 24.1% | 14.4% | 140 | -1.23 | 2.08 | 420 | 71 |
| Jaden Hill R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 22.0% | 11.8% | 1.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.41 | 156 | 71 |
| Sean Reynolds R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 23.5% | 13.8% | 1.5% | .367 | 5.19 | 18.7% | 1.8% | 55 | +1.49 | 3.70 | 258 | 71 |
| Juan Minaya R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.67 | 24.4% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .291 | 3.51 | 25.1% | 14.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 3.17 | 446 | 71 |
| Nick Robertson R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.59 | 20.6% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .342 | 4.03 | 22.7% | 11.7% | 83 | -0.56 | 2.77 | 312 | 70 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 2.0% | .327 | 2.96 | 24.1% | 11.8% | 38 | -0.92 | 2.96 | 214 | 70 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 70 |
| Justin Anderson R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.21 | 27.6% | 14.7% | 2.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 587 | 70 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 69 |
| Hansel Robles R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.83 | 22.1% | 11.6% | 3.9% | .267 | 3.69 | 25.5% | 17.6% | 145 | -1.14 | 2.74 | 469 | 69 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 68 |
| Brad Goldberg R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 18.1% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .269 | 3.85 | 23.3% | 7.2% | 89 | -0.03 | 3.17 | 197 | 68 |
| Trevor Martin R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.57 | 18.8% | 12.0% | 2.8% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 321 | 67 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 52 | 22.3% | 12.3% | 1.04 | 4.61 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |