Javy Guerra
P
Charlotte Knights
Age 30
RHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION61 act + 38 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120110vR 101
ERA4.66
FIP4.43
K%22.9%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%12.6%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.8
Whiff%
p2421.6%
K%
p1014.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.399
SL-1.4
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 0 | 30 | 122 | 36 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.8% | 8.7% | 18.1% | 4.7% | 3.90 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 0 | 30 | 122 | 36 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.5% | 10.7% | 18.9% | 4.9% | 3.90 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 14 | 0 | 13 | 67 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 1.6% | 10.12 | 3.41 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 14 | 0 | 13 | 67 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 1.5% | 10.12 | 3.40 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 7 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 2.47 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 7 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 2.50 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 59 | 245 | 62 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 1.7% | 2.73 | 3.45 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 59 | 245 | 62 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 10.2% | 15.1% | 1.6% | 2.73 | 3.15 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 2 | 56 | 256 | 52 | 34 | 6 | 4% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 13.6% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 4.79 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 2 | 56 | 256 | 52 | 34 | 6 | 4% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 13.3% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 4.79 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 40 | 4 | 61 | 275 | 48 | 43 | 9 | 10% | 1.5 | 15.4% | 16.4% | -1.1% | 3.6% | 5.34 | 5.86 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | ATL | 36 | 0 | 38 | 162 | 37 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | ATL | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 99 | 437 | 85 | 60 | 14 | — | — | 19.5% | 13.6% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 5.08 | 5.31 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 4 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 0 | — | — | 22.9% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.05 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 34 | 0 | 36 | 151 | 33 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 77 | 2 | 80 | 372 | 61 | 45 | 11 | 3% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 12.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 6.05 | 4.92 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 193 | 5 | 200 | 929 | 153 | 113 | 28 | 3% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 12.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 6.05 | 4.92 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 200 | 7 | 226 | 992 | 195 | 123 | 27 | 4% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 12.4% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.48 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 177 | 6 | 200 | 877 | 172 | 109 | 23 | 4% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 12.4% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.48 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Javy Guerra (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 22.9% | 10.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.65 | 22.2% | 11.7% | 36 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.97 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.06 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | +0.09 | 1.74 | 468 | 85 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.48 | 17.9% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .314 | 4.46 | 18.6% | 7.5% | 38 | -0.02 | 3.46 | 173 | 77 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.52 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 210 | 76 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 75 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 75 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 75 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 74 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 74 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 73 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.66 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 3.3% | .245 | 4.56 | 23.0% | 12.4% | 49 | -0.10 | 1.74 | 195 | 71 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.61 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.71 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.90 | 3.62 | 164 | 71 |
| AJ Ramos R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.86 | 27.9% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .288 | 5.03 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 20 | +1.17 | 2.55 | 266 | 70 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.13 | 21.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .365 | 4.35 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 149 | +0.22 | 2.78 | 596 | 70 |
| Roman Mendez R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.58 | 20.8% | 11.1% | 3.3% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 230 | 69 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2029 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 69 |
| Wil Browning R 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.58 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.12 | 162 | 68 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 68 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 68 |
| Juan Minaya R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.69 | 25.0% | 11.8% | 2.2% | .272 | 4.69 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 86 | +1.00 | 3.17 | 446 | 68 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 37 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 1.16 | 4.66 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |