Javy Guerra
P
Gwinnett Stripers
+0.1
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA5.12
FIP4.50
xFIP7.50
SIERA7.37
K%22.3%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%12.1%
IP55
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†6060
FB Velo
p9097.8
Whiff%
p2421.6%
K%
p1014.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.399
SL-1.4
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 29 | 0 | 30 | 122 | 36 | 13 | 6 | 26.8% | 8.7% | 4.4% | 3.90 | 4.34 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 14 | 0 | 13 | 67 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 17.9% | 7.5% | 1.2% | 10.12 | 3.18 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 7 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.70 | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 61 | 0 | 59 | 245 | 62 | 25 | 4 | 22.8% | 10.5% | 1.7% | 2.73 | 3.43 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 49 | 2 | 56 | 256 | 52 | 34 | 6 | 18.5% | 13.6% | 2.2% | 4.79 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 5 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.59 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | SD | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 56 | 24 | 7 | 24.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 5.27 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | SD | — | — | 60 | 254 | 58 | 30 | 7 | 22.8% | 11.7% | 2.6% | 4.92 | 3.92 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SD | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 52 | 23 | 7 | 23.5% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SD | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 49 | 22 | 7 | 22.9% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | SD | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 45 | 21 | 6 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | SD | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 42 | 21 | 6 | 21.6% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | SD | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 38 | 20 | 6 | 20.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.85 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | SD | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 34 | 19 | 6 | 20.1% | 11.1% | 3.5% | 5.00 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 165 | 3 | 171 | 740 | 155 | 84 | 16 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.2% | 4.15 | 3.96 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 193 | 4 | 200 | 864 | 181 | 98 | 19 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.2% | 4.15 | 3.96 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Javy Guerra (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 24.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.54 | 22.9% | 12.5% | 152 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.06 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .301 | 3.94 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | -0.12 | 1.69 | 468 | 87 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.35 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.44 | 2.91 | 210 | 77 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 77 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 76 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.24 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .349 | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.70 | 3.05 | 227 | 75 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 17.9% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .314 | 4.60 | 18.6% | 7.5% | 38 | +0.11 | 3.38 | 173 | 74 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 73 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 73 |
| AJ Ramos R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.96 | 27.9% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .288 | 5.08 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 20 | +1.12 | 2.55 | 266 | 72 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 72 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 72 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 72 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 72 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.47 | 21.0% | 10.5% | 3.3% | .365 | 4.41 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 149 | -0.06 | 2.86 | 596 | 70 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.72 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 3.4% | .245 | 4.63 | 23.0% | 12.4% | 49 | -0.09 | 1.74 | 195 | 70 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 70 |
| Roman Mendez R 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 20.8% | 11.1% | 3.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 230 | 69 |
| Juan Minaya R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.78 | 25.0% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .272 | 4.84 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 86 | +1.06 | 3.19 | 446 | 69 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.84 | 16.8% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.98 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 107 | +0.14 | 2.98 | 306 | 68 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 68 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.