Javy Guerra

P Charlotte Knights

Age 31 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	26	MIX2 levels	61	0	59	2.73	3.15	25.3%	10.2%	1.0	K 22.8% · BB 10.5% · FIP 3.44
2023	27	MIX2 levels	49	2	56	4.79	4.45	20.3%	13.3%	0.1	K 18.2% · BB 12.7% · FIP 4.44
2026	30	AAACWS	26	2	37	4.86	5.02	20.0%	14.5%	—	K 17.2% · BB 13.1% · FIP 5.14
2027PROJ	31	MLBCWS	2	0	2	4.96	4.71	21.6%	11.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBCWS	6	0	6	4.95	4.95	20.9%	11.2%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

FB Velo90

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsJim Miller (age 30) · Fredy Quintero (age 31) · Miguel Mejia (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.96

FIP4.71

K%21.6%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%10.6%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.8

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p1014.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.399

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	0	30	122	36	13	6	0%	1.0	26.8%	8.7%	18.1%	4.2%	3.90	4.25	+0.1
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	0	30	122	36	13	6	0%	1.0	29.5%	10.7%	18.9%	4.9%	3.90	4.60	-0.0
2020	24	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	14	0	13	67	12	5	1	0%	1.0	17.9%	7.5%	10.4%	1.5%	10.12	3.33	+0.2
2020	24	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	14	0	13	67	12	5	1	0%	1.0	17.9%	7.5%	10.4%	1.5%	10.12	3.40	+0.2
2021	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	7	1	7	27	5	2	0	14%	1.0	18.5%	7.4%	11.1%	0.0%	2.70	2.47	+0.2
2021	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	7	1	7	27	5	2	0	14%	1.0	18.5%	7.4%	11.1%	0.0%	2.70	2.50	+0.2
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	59	245	62	25	4	0%	1.0	22.8%	10.5%	12.2%	1.7%	2.73	3.44	+0.8
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	59	245	62	25	4	0%	1.0	25.3%	10.2%	15.1%	1.6%	2.73	3.15	+1.0
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	2	56	256	52	34	6	4%	1.1	18.2%	12.7%	5.5%	2.3%	4.79	4.44	+0.1
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	2	56	256	52	34	6	4%	1.1	20.3%	13.3%	7.0%	2.3%	4.79	4.45	+0.1
2026	30	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	26	2	37	165	33	24	5	8%	1.4	17.2%	13.1%	4.1%	3.3%	4.86	5.14	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	26	2	37	165	33	24	5	8%	1.4	17.2%	13.1%	4.1%	3.3%	4.86	5.14	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	26	2	37	165	33	24	5	8%	1.4	20.0%	14.5%	5.5%	3.0%	4.86	5.02	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			61	2	63	300	45	38	9	3%	1.0	15.0%	12.7%	2.3%	3.0%	6.43	5.34	-0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	CWS	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	21.6%	11.0%	10.6%	3.0%	4.96	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	CWS	16	0	17	71	15	8	2	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.2%	9.8%	3.3%	4.92	4.92	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	CWS	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.2%	9.8%	3.3%	4.95	4.95	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		67	2	69	326	50	41	10	3%	1.0	15.5%	12.5%	2.9%	3.0%	6.30	5.04	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		193	6	200	943	144	118	29	3%	1.0	15.5%	12.5%	2.9%	3.0%	6.30	5.04	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		186	5	203	882	181	98	22	3%	1.1	20.5%	11.1%	9.4%	2.5%	4.35	4.12	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		184	5	200	870	178	96	21	3%	1.1	20.5%	11.1%	9.4%	2.5%	4.35	4.12	-1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 37 IPFIP 4.92 → 5.14 (+0.22)K% 20.0% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.860	17.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.55%	—	×0.900	13.09%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.33%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.92 → 5.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAADurham Bulls · 37 IPFIP 3.66 → 3.78 (+0.12)K% 23.9% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.90%	—	×0.860	20.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.43%	—	×0.900	8.49%
HR / BF /BF	2.52%	÷1.137	×1.100	2.43%

Result: FIP 3.66 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAADurham Bulls · 41 IPFIP 1.99 → 2.39 (+0.41)K% 31.9% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.90%	—	×0.880	28.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.82%	—	×1.050	10.31%
HR / BF /BF	0.61%	÷1.034	×1.100	0.65%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 1.99 → 2.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 17 IPFIP 2.78 → 4.25 (+1.47)K% 34.8% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.85%	—	×0.770	26.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.58%	—	×1.150	8.71%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷0.900	×1.250	4.21%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 2.78 → 4.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 4 IPFIP 6.06 → 6.65 (+0.60)K% 35.0% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.00%	—	×0.810	28.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	25.00%	—	×1.100	27.50%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.337	×1.200	4.49%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 167).

Result: FIP 6.06 → 6.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Javy Guerra (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	21.6%	11.0%	3.0%	—	4.92	20.9%	9.8%	17	+0.21	—	—	—
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	72
Fredy Quintero R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	31	SU	4.62	17.2%	13.7%	2.2%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	241	70
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	69
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	69
Antonio Guzman R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	31	SU	4.96	19.3%	14.7%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	254	68
Arquimedes Caminero R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	32	SU	4.62	18.6%	11.1%	3.1%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.54	186	66
Luis Angel Daniel R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	31	SU	4.56	13.4%	8.9%	2.7%	.286	4.16	9.8%	0.3%	53	-0.40	4.16	156	66
Shintaro Fujinami R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	22.1%	20.1%	1.4%	.187	4.39	21.7%	-2.9%	19	-0.16	4.09	130	66
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	66
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	66
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2021 · 5.48 FIP	30	SU	5.48	19.6%	19.2%	2.9%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	132	66
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	66
David Carpenter R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.4%	12.8%	2.9%	.333	3.89	21.5%	11.9%	49	-0.60	2.66	275	65
Kane Davis R 2005 · 5.15 FIP	30	SU	5.15	15.7%	14.3%	2.9%	.170	4.82	16.9%	6.7%	11	-0.33	3.40	125	65
Steve Delabar R 2014 · 5.10 FIP	31	SU	5.10	18.4%	16.7%	2.6%	.225	4.01	23.6%	12.0%	79	-1.09	2.43	229	65
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	65
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	65
Greg Aquino R 2009 · 4.64 FIP	31	SU	4.64	14.9%	16.2%	1.4%	.240	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	154	64
Arcenio Leon R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	30	SU	4.42	18.5%	13.7%	2.1%	.203	3.61	21.4%	13.3%	18	-0.81	3.00	115	64
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	50	17.2%	13.2%	1.18	5.87
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Denny Bautista ('10)	1.1	45	17.3%	12.7%	0.85	5.89
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*