Javy Guerra — OGILVIE

Javy Guerra P Charlotte Knights

Age 30 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.66

FIP4.43

K%22.8%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%12.7%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.8

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p1014.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.399

SL-1.4

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	0	30	122	36	13	6	0%	1.0	26.8%	8.7%	18.1%	4.2%	3.90	4.25	+0.1
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	0	30	122	36	13	6	0%	1.0	29.5%	10.7%	18.9%	4.9%	3.90	4.60	-0.0
2020	24	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	14	0	13	67	12	5	1	0%	1.0	17.9%	7.5%	10.4%	1.5%	10.12	3.33	+0.2
2020	24	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	14	0	13	67	12	5	1	0%	1.0	17.9%	7.5%	10.4%	1.5%	10.12	3.40	+0.2
2021	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	7	1	7	27	5	2	0	14%	1.0	18.5%	7.4%	11.1%	0.0%	2.70	2.47	+0.2
2021	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	7	1	7	27	5	2	0	14%	1.0	18.5%	7.4%	11.1%	0.0%	2.70	2.50	+0.2
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	59	245	62	25	4	0%	1.0	22.8%	10.5%	12.2%	1.7%	2.73	3.44	+0.8
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	59	245	62	25	4	0%	1.0	25.3%	10.2%	15.1%	1.6%	2.73	3.15	+1.0
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	2	56	256	52	34	6	4%	1.1	17.8%	12.7%	5.1%	2.3%	4.79	4.48	+0.0
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	2	56	256	52	34	6	4%	1.1	17.8%	12.7%	5.1%	2.3%	4.79	4.48	+0.0
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	2	56	256	52	34	6	4%	1.1	20.3%	13.3%	7.0%	2.3%	4.79	4.45	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			61	2	63	300	45	38	9	3%	1.0	15.0%	12.7%	2.3%	3.0%	6.43	5.34	-0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	26	2	37	165	33	24	5	8%	1.4	16.6%	13.1%	3.5%	3.3%	4.86	5.19	—
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	26	2	37	165	33	24	5	8%	1.4	16.6%	13.1%	3.5%	3.3%	4.86	5.19	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	CWS	26	2	37	165	33	24	5	8%	1.4	20.0%	14.5%	5.5%	3.0%	4.86	4.92	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	CWS	34	0	36	151	33	16	5	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	3.1%	4.65	4.65	-0.0
2027	31	MLB CTX	CWS	12	0	13	55	12	6	2	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	3.2%	4.68	4.68	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	2	76	355	57	44	11	3%	1.0	16.1%	12.3%	3.8%	3.0%	6.13	4.96	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		193	5	200	934	150	116	29	3%	1.0	16.1%	12.3%	3.8%	3.0%	6.13	4.96	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		186	5	203	882	178	98	22	3%	1.1	20.2%	11.1%	9.2%	2.5%	4.35	4.14	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		184	5	200	870	176	96	21	3%	1.1	20.2%	11.1%	9.2%	2.5%	4.35	4.14	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Javy Guerra (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	22.8%	10.1%	2.9%	—	4.65	22.1%	11.7%	36	+0.22	—	—	—
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	86
Daniel Hudson R 2017 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	24.4%	11.8%	2.8%	.301	4.01	24.1%	15.2%	140	-0.06	1.68	468	82
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	77
Blake Wood R 2016 · 3.76 FIP	30	SU	3.76	24.5%	10.6%	2.5%	.307	3.44	25.3%	16.0%	74	-0.32	2.92	210	77
Arquimedes Caminero R 2016 · 4.45 FIP	29	SU	4.45	17.9%	11.4%	2.6%	.314	4.62	18.6%	7.5%	38	+0.17	3.54	173	76
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	76
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	75
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	75
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	74
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	74
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	73
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	72
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	71
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	71
Roman Mendez R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SU	4.42	20.8%	11.1%	3.0%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	230	70
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	69
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	69
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	68
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	68
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	37	22.4%	10.2%	1.17	4.66
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78