Nomar Medina prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Nomar Medina P San Jose Giants

Age 23 LHP 6'0" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.7 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 66 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110119vR 127

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%19.8%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%8.5%

ROS IP67

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	14	3	35	148	37	12	1	21%	2.5	17.0%	10.1%	6.9%	0.9%	2.57	3.44	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	14	3	35	148	37	12	1	21%	2.5	25.0%	8.1%	16.9%	0.7%	2.57	2.39	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	14	12	65	263	70	16	1	86%	4.6	18.1%	7.6%	10.5%	0.5%	2.22	2.81	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Black	14	12	65	263	70	16	1	86%	4.6	26.6%	6.1%	20.5%	0.4%	2.22	1.88	—
2023	20	A MLE	San Jose Giants	25	14	95	427	77	46	13	56%	3.8	13.3%	12.7%	0.6%	4.4%	5.19	6.02	—
2023	20	A MLE	San Jose Giants	25	14	95	427	77	46	13	56%	3.8	13.3%	12.7%	0.6%	4.4%	5.19	6.02	—
2023	20	A RAW	San Jose Giants	25	14	95	427	77	46	13	56%	3.8	18.0%	10.8%	7.3%	3.0%	5.19	4.70	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.8%	11.3%	8.5%	3.1%	4.92	4.92	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	68	289	60	30	9	100%	6.8	20.8%	10.4%	10.4%	3.0%	4.76	4.70	+0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	69	293	63	29	9	100%	6.9	21.4%	9.8%	11.5%	3.0%	4.63	4.57	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	69	293	63	29	9	100%	6.9	21.7%	9.8%	11.9%	3.0%	4.57	4.54	+0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	68	288	63	28	9	100%	6.8	21.7%	9.8%	11.9%	3.1%	4.57	4.57	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	66	280	60	28	9	100%	6.6	21.6%	10.0%	11.6%	3.2%	4.62	4.65	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	63	267	57	27	9	100%	7.0	21.4%	10.2%	11.1%	3.3%	4.72	4.78	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	SF	4	4	29	122	25	13	3	100%	7.2	20.8%	10.4%	10.4%	2.8%	4.64	4.58	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	SF	7	7	46	194	42	19	5	100%	6.6	21.4%	9.8%	11.5%	2.8%	4.51	4.45	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	55	232	50	23	6	100%	6.9	21.7%	9.8%	11.9%	2.8%	4.45	4.42	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	58	245	53	24	7	100%	6.4	21.7%	9.8%	11.9%	2.8%	4.44	4.44	+0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	59	249	54	25	7	100%	6.6	21.6%	10.0%	11.6%	2.9%	4.49	4.52	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	58	245	52	25	7	100%	6.4	21.4%	10.2%	11.1%	3.1%	4.58	4.64	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	45	305	1287	277	128	37	100%	6.8	21.5%	10.0%	11.5%	2.9%	4.51	4.12	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	182	84	24	100%	6.7	21.5%	10.0%	11.5%	2.9%	4.51	4.12	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		53	29	195	838	130	89	22	55%	3.7	15.5%	10.7%	4.8%	2.6%	3.73	4.56	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	30	200	858	133	91	22	55%	3.7	15.5%	10.7%	4.8%	2.6%	3.73	4.56	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nomar Medina (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	19.8%	11.3%	3.1%	—	4.60	21.3%	11.3%	207	-0.32	—	—	—
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	92
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	87
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	87
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	83
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	83
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.79	17.1%	7.8%	206	-0.85	2.95	250	83
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	83
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	83
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	82
Jaime Arias L 2022 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP-	5.00	15.6%	9.9%	3.6%	.332	5.53	15.8%	4.8%	77	+0.53	4.38	243	81
Dallas Braden L 2007 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP-	4.14	16.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.337	3.89	14.1%	7.8%	401	-0.25	3.64	491	81
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.15	16.0%	4.4%	319	-0.26	3.35	506	80
JP Sears L 2019 · 3.85 FIP	23	SW	3.85	16.8%	8.9%	1.9%	.268	3.34	24.7%	17.8%	222	-0.51	2.18	962	79
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	79
Billy Traber L 2003 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.5%	7.2%	3.0%	.321	4.17	12.4%	6.5%	43	+0.00	3.75	211	78
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	78
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	78
Patrick Wicklander L 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP-	4.95	16.9%	8.8%	3.9%	.327	5.11	15.1%	0.1%	45	+0.16	4.88	254	78
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	78
Casey Fossum L 2001 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	13.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.270	4.46	19.3%	10.9%	328	+0.14	3.50	782	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	67	21.2%	10.2%	1.19	4.68
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22
Bobby Ayala ('99)	2.9	72	21.3%	9.7%	1.11	4.78
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48