Niko Mazza

P Eugene Emeralds

Age 25 RHP 5'10" / 193 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	ASF	21	21	93	2.22	3.26	23.0%	13.3%	—	K 17.0% · BB 15.7% · FIP 4.05
2026	24	MIX2 levels	26	19	104	4.40	3.70	26.4%	12.6%	—	K 20.4% · BB 15.2% · FIP 4.63
2027PROJ	25	MLBSF	21	21	124	5.38	5.38	21.4%	17.6%	-0.7
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBSF	10	10	59	5.23	5.20	22.2%	16.6%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBSF	14	14	84	5.16	5.17	22.1%	16.0%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff57Control30Command30FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 92%

CompsZach Fruit (age 24) · Luis Quiñones (age 25) · Will Schomberg (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.38

FIP5.38

K%21.4%

BB%17.6%

K-BB%3.7%

Proj IP124

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 124 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5055

CTRL3030

CMD2030

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	21	21	93	392	90	52	3	100%	4.4	17.0%	15.7%	1.3%	0.7%	2.22	4.05	—
2025	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	21	21	93	392	90	52	3	100%	4.4	17.0%	15.7%	1.3%	0.7%	2.22	4.05	—
2025	23	A RAW	San Jose Giants	21	21	93	392	90	52	3	100%	4.4	23.0%	13.3%	9.7%	0.8%	2.22	3.26	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	104	451	119	57	10	73%	4.0	20.4%	15.2%	5.2%	2.4%	4.40	4.63	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	104	451	119	57	10	73%	4.0	20.4%	15.2%	5.2%	2.4%	4.40	4.63	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	104	451	119	57	10	73%	4.0	26.4%	12.6%	13.7%	2.2%	4.40	3.70	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	SF	21	21	124	524	112	92	14	100%	5.9	21.4%	17.6%	3.7%	2.7%	5.38	5.38	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	23	23	136	575	128	96	16	100%	5.9	22.2%	16.6%	5.6%	2.7%	5.23	5.20	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	22	22	134	567	126	91	16	100%	6.1	22.1%	16.0%	6.1%	2.8%	5.16	5.17	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	SF	22	22	130	550	121	87	16	100%	5.9	22.0%	15.7%	6.3%	2.9%	5.17	5.21	-0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	SF	21	21	124	525	114	83	16	100%	5.9	21.8%	15.8%	6.0%	3.1%	5.24	5.31	-0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	SF	19	19	117	494	106	79	16	100%	6.2	21.4%	16.1%	5.4%	3.3%	5.39	5.49	-0.8
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	59	249	55	41	7	100%	5.9	22.2%	16.6%	5.6%	2.7%	5.23	5.20	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	84	355	79	57	10	100%	6.0	22.1%	16.0%	6.1%	2.8%	5.16	5.17	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	SF	16	16	98	414	91	65	12	100%	6.1	22.0%	15.7%	6.3%	2.9%	5.17	5.21	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	SF	17	17	101	426	93	67	13	100%	5.9	21.8%	15.8%	6.0%	3.1%	5.24	5.31	-0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	SF	17	17	100	422	90	68	14	100%	5.9	21.4%	16.1%	5.4%	3.3%	5.39	5.49	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	74	443	1869	409	299	55	100%	6.0	21.9%	16.0%	5.9%	3.0%	5.24	4.91	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	185	135	25	100%	6.0	21.9%	16.0%	5.9%	3.0%	5.24	4.91	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		47	40	198	843	159	130	14	85%	4.2	18.8%	15.4%	3.4%	1.6%	3.37	4.36	-2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	40	200	853	161	132	14	85%	4.2	18.8%	15.4%	3.4%	1.6%	3.37	4.36	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Niko Mazza (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.38	21.4%	17.6%	2.7%	—	5.19	22.1%	6.0%	401	-0.19	—	—	—
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	84
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.80	22.4%	10.8%	160	+0.03	3.69	326	80
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	80
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	80
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	79
Carlos Hernandez R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	17.4%	15.7%	1.3%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	123	77
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	77
Bryce Conley R 2019 · 5.40 FIP	24	SP-	5.40	17.0%	16.0%	3.1%	.227	4.28	17.4%	5.6%	142	-1.12	4.22	560	76
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	76
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	75
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	75
Nick Nastrini R 2024 · 5.76 FIP	24	SP	5.76	19.5%	14.6%	4.5%	.276	6.44	18.0%	-1.2%	47	+0.68	4.02	412	75
Juaron Watts-Brown R 2024 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP	5.25	21.8%	15.4%	3.7%	.294	4.92	22.8%	10.9%	221	-0.33	4.16	324	75
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	74
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	74
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	74
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.69	18.9%	3.2%	77	+0.02	3.95	270	74
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	74
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	74
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	128	21.8%	16.3%	1.12	5.26
Emmett O'Neill ('43-'46, -2 WAR*)	1.8	119	19.1%*	15.5%*	0.99*	5.94*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44
Tommy Byrne ('43-'57, 6 WAR*)	6.8	124	23.8%*	13.6%*	0.98*	4.39*
Tony Saunders ('99)	1.7	115	19.7%	13.2%	0.86	4.56