Mason Molina — OGILVIE

Mason Molina P Springfield Cardinals

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 230 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.6 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION119 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%22.1%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%8.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 124 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4045

CTRL—45

CMD3040

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	2	2	5	18	6	1	0	100%	2.5	33.3%	5.6%	27.8%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2024	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	2	2	5	18	6	1	0	100%	2.5	33.3%	5.6%	27.8%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2024	21	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	2	2	5	18	6	1	0	100%	2.5	33.3%	5.6%	27.8%	0.0%	0.00	1.30	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	96	395	119	43	8	96%	4.2	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	2.6%	3.10	4.23	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	96	395	119	43	8	96%	4.2	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	2.6%	3.10	4.23	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	96	395	119	43	8	96%	4.2	30.1%	10.9%	19.2%	2.0%	3.10	3.05	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	26	26	119	507	148	53	11	100%	4.6	23.9%	10.4%	13.5%	2.5%	3.64	3.77	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	26	26	119	507	148	53	11	100%	4.6	23.9%	10.4%	13.5%	2.5%	3.64	3.77	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	STL	14	14	69	285	82	26	5	100%	4.9	28.8%	9.1%	19.6%	1.8%	2.87	2.79	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	STL	12	12	50	222	66	27	6	100%	4.1	29.7%	12.2%	17.6%	2.7%	4.71	3.61	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	STL	1	1	6	24	5	3	1	100%	5.6	22.1%	13.5%	8.6%	2.9%	4.89	4.89	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	124	531	153	56	12	—	—	28.9%	10.6%	18.3%	2.2%	3.70	3.82	+1.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	STL	21	21	119	503	114	61	14	100%	5.7	22.6%	12.1%	10.5%	2.9%	4.74	4.67	+0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	21	21	121	509	117	58	14	100%	5.7	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	2.8%	4.61	4.54	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	121	509	118	57	15	100%	6.0	23.1%	11.1%	12.0%	2.9%	4.54	4.51	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	119	502	116	56	15	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.1%	11.9%	2.9%	4.54	4.54	+0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	115	486	111	55	15	100%	6.1	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	3.0%	4.59	4.62	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	110	464	105	53	15	100%	6.1	22.7%	11.5%	11.2%	3.2%	4.69	4.75	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	103	437	97	51	15	100%	6.1	22.3%	11.8%	10.5%	3.4%	4.84	4.93	-0.0
2034	31	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	96	407	89	49	15	100%	6.0	21.9%	12.1%	9.8%	3.6%	5.02	5.13	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	52	220	50	27	6	100%	5.8	22.6%	12.1%	10.5%	2.7%	4.63	4.56	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	81	342	78	39	9	100%	5.8	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	2.6%	4.50	4.43	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	96	405	94	45	11	100%	6.0	23.1%	11.1%	12.0%	2.7%	4.43	4.40	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	17	17	102	431	99	48	12	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.1%	11.9%	2.7%	4.43	4.43	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	17	17	103	435	100	49	12	100%	6.1	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	2.8%	4.47	4.50	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	17	17	100	422	96	49	12	100%	5.9	22.7%	11.5%	11.2%	2.9%	4.57	4.63	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	95	401	90	47	13	100%	5.9	22.3%	11.8%	10.5%	3.1%	4.71	4.80	-0.0
2034	31	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	90	380	83	46	13	100%	6.0	21.9%	12.1%	9.8%	3.3%	4.88	4.99	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		121	121	718	3032	688	349	87	100%	5.9	22.7%	11.5%	11.2%	2.9%	4.57	4.22	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	192	97	24	100%	6.0	22.7%	11.5%	11.2%	2.9%	4.57	4.22	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		51	50	219	920	217	104	23	98%	4.3	23.6%	11.3%	12.3%	2.5%	3.32	3.91	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	46	200	839	198	95	21	98%	4.3	23.6%	11.3%	12.3%	2.5%	3.32	3.91	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Molina (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	22.1%	13.5%	2.9%	—	4.57	22.9%	11.3%	360	-0.32	—	—	—
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	90
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	88
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	86
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	84
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	83
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	82
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	82
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	82
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	81
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	80
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	80
Russell Smith L 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	16.0%	10.4%	3.8%	.272	4.64	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.50	4.00	175	79
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	79
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	79
Damon Jones L 2018 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	18.8%	12.2%	1.9%	.321	3.84	25.8%	10.9%	156	-0.28	3.71	269	79
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	79
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	78
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	78
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.73	19.6%	8.6%	256	-0.66	4.16	461	78
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	108	22.7%	11.7%	1.18	4.70
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04