Mason Molina

P Springfield Cardinals

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 230 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#471ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ACarolina Mudc…	2	2	5	0.00	1.30	33.3%	5.6%	—	K 33.3% · BB 5.6% · FIP 0.99
2025	22	MIX2 levels	23	22	96	3.10	3.05	30.1%	10.9%	—	K 22.7% · BB 12.6% · FIP 4.23
2026	23	MIX2 levels	27	27	124	3.57	3.12	28.5%	10.1%	—	K 23.7% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.68
2027PROJ	24	MLBSTL	1	1	2	4.49	4.49	23.4%	11.8%	0.0
2028PROJ32% MLB	25	MLBSTL	5	5	29	4.30	4.27	23.6%	11.0%	0.3
2029PROJ52% MLB	26	MLBSTL	8	8	46	4.26	4.24	23.7%	10.7%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.4 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 14, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 70%

CompsHayden Mullins (age 23) · Connelly Early (age 22) · T.J. Sikkema (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

K%23.4%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%11.6%

Proj IP80

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$15M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	2	2	5	18	6	1	0	100%	2.5	33.3%	5.6%	27.8%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2024	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	2	2	5	18	6	1	0	100%	2.5	33.3%	5.6%	27.8%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2024	21	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	2	2	5	18	6	1	0	100%	2.5	33.3%	5.6%	27.8%	0.0%	0.00	1.30	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	96	395	119	43	8	96%	4.2	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	2.6%	3.10	4.23	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	96	395	119	43	8	96%	4.2	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	2.6%	3.10	4.23	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	96	395	119	43	8	96%	4.2	30.1%	10.9%	19.2%	2.0%	3.10	3.05	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	124	526	150	53	11	100%	4.6	23.7%	10.1%	13.7%	2.4%	3.57	3.68	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	124	526	150	53	11	100%	4.6	23.7%	10.1%	13.7%	2.4%	3.57	3.68	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	124	526	150	53	11	100%	4.6	28.5%	10.1%	18.4%	2.1%	3.57	3.12	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	STL	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	23.4%	11.8%	11.6%	2.7%	4.49	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	93	392	93	43	11	100%	5.8	23.6%	11.0%	12.7%	2.7%	4.41	4.38	+1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	88	370	88	40	10	100%	5.8	23.7%	10.7%	13.0%	2.8%	4.37	4.35	+1.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	84	355	84	38	10	100%	6.0	23.6%	10.6%	13.0%	2.8%	4.37	4.38	+1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	13	13	80	337	79	36	10	100%	6.1	23.5%	10.7%	12.8%	2.9%	4.42	4.46	+0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	74	313	73	34	10	100%	6.2	23.2%	10.9%	12.3%	3.1%	4.52	4.59	+0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	STL	11	11	67	283	65	32	9	100%	6.1	22.9%	11.2%	11.6%	3.3%	4.67	4.77	+0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	60	251	56	29	9	100%	6.0	22.5%	11.6%	10.9%	3.5%	4.85	4.97	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	5	5	29	122	29	13	3	100%	5.8	23.6%	11.0%	12.7%	2.5%	4.30	4.27	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	46	194	46	21	5	100%	5.8	23.7%	10.7%	13.0%	2.6%	4.26	4.24	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	54	228	54	24	6	100%	6.0	23.6%	10.6%	13.0%	2.6%	4.26	4.27	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	58	245	57	26	7	100%	5.8	23.5%	10.7%	12.8%	2.7%	4.31	4.35	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	57	241	56	26	7	100%	5.7	23.2%	10.9%	12.3%	2.9%	4.40	4.47	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	54	228	52	26	7	100%	6.0	22.9%	11.2%	11.6%	3.0%	4.54	4.64	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	50	211	47	24	7	100%	6.2	22.5%	11.6%	10.9%	3.3%	4.72	4.84	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	58	348	1470	342	161	41	100%	6.0	23.3%	11.0%	12.3%	2.8%	4.41	4.07	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	196	92	24	100%	6.0	23.3%	11.0%	12.3%	2.8%	4.41	4.07	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		52	51	224	939	221	104	23	98%	4.3	23.5%	11.1%	12.4%	2.5%	3.29	3.86	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	45	200	837	197	93	21	98%	4.3	23.5%	11.1%	12.4%	2.5%	3.29	3.86	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 69 IPFIP 2.79 → 3.56 (+0.77)K% 28.8% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.77%	—	×0.810	23.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.12%	—	×1.100	10.04%
HR / BF /BF	1.75%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.11%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.79 → 3.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 55 IPFIP 3.50 → 3.83 (+0.33)K% 28.2% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.22%	—	×0.860	24.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.20%	—	×0.900	10.08%
HR / BF /BF	2.49%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.74%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.50 → 3.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Peoria Chiefs · 49 IPFIP 2.95 → 4.00 (+1.05)K% 28.1% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.08%	—	×0.770	21.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.30%	—	×1.150	15.30%
HR / BF /BF	0.99%	÷0.857	×1.250	1.44%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 2.95 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AHickory Crawdads · 47 IPFIP 3.14 → 4.48 (+1.33)K% 32.3% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.29%	—	×0.740	23.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.180	9.83%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.037	×1.300	3.92%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 3.14 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Molina (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.37	23.7%	12.9%	265	-0.12	—	—	—
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	84
Connelly Early L 2024 · 3.33 FIP	22	SP	3.33	24.1%	9.8%	1.9%	.292	3.28	26.0%	17.0%	214	-0.05	2.52	318	83
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	82
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	82
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	82
Damon Jones L 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP	3.71	25.9%	13.8%	1.9%	.266	4.21	25.5%	7.4%	41	+0.50	3.71	269	82
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	81
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	81
Marc Rzepczynski L 2010 · 4.23 FIP	24	SP	4.23	19.9%	10.1%	2.8%	.332	3.54	21.2%	13.0%	139	-0.69	2.43	491	81
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	80
Jacob Latz L 2019 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	23.0%	12.6%	1.1%	.222	5.12	22.8%	10.7%	149	+1.77	2.39	480	80
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	80
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	79
J.C. Romero L 2000 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP	4.58	18.7%	11.2%	3.0%	.356	3.98	18.2%	8.4%	209	-0.60	2.88	652	79
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	79
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	78
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	78
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	78
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.29	19.3%	13.9%	222	-0.12	3.22	285	77
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	78	23.4%	11.0%	1.14	4.49
Jim Ray ('65-'74, 2 WAR*)	3.1	88	20.5%*	10.4%*	1.14*	4.38*
Manny Parra ('15)	3.1	78	20.8%	10.6%	1.00	4.90
Dave Hamilton ('72-'80, 2 WAR*)	3.5	78	21.3%*	10.2%*	1.13*	4.58*
Jay Witasick ('07)	3.7	73	19.6%	11.0%	1.19	4.64
Sid Monge ('75-'84, 4 WAR*)	3.8	76	22.1%*	10.8%*	1.34*	3.97*
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06