Mason Molina
P
Springfield Cardinals
Age 23
LHP
6'2" / 230 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.0 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION77 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112121vR 130
ERA4.92
FIP4.92
K%22.1%
BB%13.5%
K-BB%8.5%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 2 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.5 | 33.3% | 5.6% | 27.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.99 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 2 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.5 | 33.3% | 5.6% | 27.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.30 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 96 | 395 | 119 | 43 | 8 | 96% | 4.2 | 22.7% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 3.10 | 4.28 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 96 | 395 | 119 | 43 | 8 | 96% | 4.2 | 30.1% | 10.9% | 19.2% | 2.0% | 3.10 | 3.05 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 16 | 16 | 77 | 327 | 96 | 31 | 6 | 100% | 4.8 | 23.3% | 10.0% | 13.3% | 2.1% | 3.27 | 3.56 | +1.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 60 | 37 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.1% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.92 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | STL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.92 | 4.92 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | STL | — | — | 142 | 601 | 156 | 68 | 14 | — | — | 26.0% | 11.3% | 14.7% | 2.3% | 4.03 | 4.18 | +2.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | STL | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 22.1% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.92 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 66 | 36 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.7% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.70 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 70 | 294 | 68 | 34 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 70 | 294 | 69 | 34 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.4% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 69 | 290 | 68 | 33 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.4% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 66 | 281 | 65 | 33 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.65 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 64 | 268 | 62 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.0% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 60 | 252 | 57 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.86 | 4.96 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | STL | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 29 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | STL | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 46 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | STL | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 54 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.4% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 58 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.4% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 58 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 56 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.0% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.78 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | STL | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 53 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.7% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.86 | 4.96 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 61 | 61 | 364 | 1537 | 355 | 180 | 46 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.30 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 99 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 41 | 40 | 178 | 740 | 172 | 84 | 18 | 98% | 4.3 | 23.2% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 2.4% | 3.09 | 3.88 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 45 | 200 | 833 | 194 | 94 | 20 | 98% | 4.3 | 23.2% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 2.4% | 3.09 | 3.88 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mason Molina (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.92 | 22.1% | 13.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.60 | 23.1% | 11.3% | 208 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Sam Weatherly L 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.86 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.28 | 3.86 | 189 | 89 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.17 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | .294 | 3.68 | 29.8% | 14.8% | 108 | -1.49 | 1.94 | 191 | 88 |
| Caden Grice L 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.23 | 23.1% | 15.7% | 2.0% | .282 | 5.28 | 17.3% | 1.8% | 55 | +1.05 | 4.23 | 105 | 87 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.83 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.21 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.62 | 4.15 | 256 | 86 |
| Xavier Rivas L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.87 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .229 | 5.34 | 28.7% | 15.4% | 64 | +0.47 | 4.87 | 150 | 85 |
| Brent Headrick L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.52 | 22.9% | 14.0% | 2.9% | .383 | 4.63 | 24.2% | 16.7% | 227 | +0.11 | 2.40 | 382 | 84 |
| Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.26 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.8% | .301 | 6.14 | 17.6% | 4.8% | 71 | +1.88 | 4.26 | 176 | 83 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.06 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.60 | 15.1% | 4.8% | 51 | +2.54 | 4.06 | 248 | 83 |
| Cole Ragans L 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.15 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.38 | 26.8% | 17.4% | 445 | -1.77 | 2.46 | 623 | 83 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 82 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.60 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .269 | 5.90 | 20.7% | 8.4% | 87 | +1.30 | 4.60 | 308 | 82 |
| Luis De León L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 22.6% | 13.9% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 316 | 82 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.4% | .298 | 5.19 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.95 | 4.24 | 501 | 82 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.4% | .312 | 4.46 | 21.0% | 7.7% | 184 | +0.10 | 3.84 | 249 | 81 |
| Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.67 | 19.6% | 14.6% | 2.5% | .266 | 3.89 | 20.3% | 3.7% | 33 | -0.78 | 2.81 | 146 | 81 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.00 | 20.5% | 13.9% | 1.6% | .275 | 3.80 | 20.7% | 7.5% | 141 | -0.20 | 3.73 | 245 | 81 |
| Michel Gelabert L 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.58 | 18.7% | 12.1% | 2.8% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 107 | 80 |
| Justin Sinibaldi L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.79 | 15.9% | 11.1% | 3.0% | .286 | 6.01 | 14.0% | 3.4% | 72 | +1.22 | 4.79 | 163 | 80 |
| Austin Emener L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.86 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% | .306 | 5.42 | 23.7% | 8.9% | 49 | +0.56 | 4.86 | 109 | 79 |
| Aidan Deakins L 2025 · 5.29 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.29 | 17.1% | 11.1% | 4.1% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 119 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 67 | 23.0% | 12.0% | 1.16 | 4.70 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Brad Boxberger ('23) | 8 | 43 | 27.1% | 11.7% | 1.17 | 3.86 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |