Sam Petersen

OF Harrisburg Senators
Age 24 R/R 5'11" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1373ETA2029MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202421AWSH25.364/.417/.59105135—.364/.417/.591
202522A+/ROK/INTL2 orgs283.311/.419/.5061024117—.270/.356/.436
202623AAA/AAWSH574.248/.372/.417163889—.220/.321/.355
2027PROJMLE24MLBWSH4.209/.305/.3380085-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB25MLBWSH154.213/.308/.35245890.1
2029PROJ45% MLB26MLBWSH230.216/.310/.36067920.2
Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$3M2034Ext$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Speed92
Z-Con%33
BB%31
Whiff%25
Max EV21
Chase%21
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 5.4, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 88%
CompsMichael Hermosillo (age 24) · Zach Dezenzo (age 24) · Drew Ferguson (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†85
AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .305 / .338
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%9
BABIP298
ISO132
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: +1.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.1 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -1.3 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.20+0.2WAR
0.00.51.00.00.10.20.20.10.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2033Arb-1$3M———
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.8M $0.7M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202421 AFredericksburg Nationals — 2522 8310 161 50 3644175911.008 227471 244 421 135 — — — — — —
202522 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks — 172145 43626 20315 180 297400490890 193339 1812 391 99 — — — — — —
202522 ROKFCL Nationals — 4231 12101 694 41 3875375161.053 129500 2114 465 119 — — — — — —
202522 INTLScottsdale Scorpions — 6959 18503 7212 21 305397542939 237417 3010 407 161 — — — — — —
202623 AAARochester Red Wings — 155134 34613 13466 80 254344381725 127365 308 327 78 — — — — — —
202623 AAHarrisburg Senators — 419334 8217313 6111716 305 246382431813 186333 2815 364 93 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202421 A MLEFredericksburg Nationals — 2522 8310 181 50 3644175911.008 227425 324 367 135 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLEWilmington Blue Rocks — 172153 39526 12425 180 255329431761 176296 247 315 99 — — — — — —
202522 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 4233 11101 4134 41 333463455918 121405 3110 344 119 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLERochester Red Wings — 155139 32512 9556 80 230305324629 94363 356 284 78 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 419357 7715311 4314316 305 216327367694 151312 3410 305 93 — — — — — —
202421 A MLEFredericksburg Nationals — 2522 8310 181 50 3644175911.008 227533 324 367 135 — — — — — —
202421 A RAWFredericksburg Nationals — 2522 8310 161 50 3644175911.008 227471 244 421 135 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE3 teams — 283248 63828 207311 242 254337399736 145324 267 321 103 — — — — — —
202522 A+ RAW3 teams — 283235 7312210 336111 242 311419506926 196377 2212 406 103 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE2 teams — 574495 10920413 5319822 385 220323356678 135334 349 299 89 — — — — — —
202623 AA RAW2 teams — 574468 11623416 7416322 385 248372417789 169342 2813 354 89 — — — — — —
202421 A MLEFredericksburg Nationals — 2523 8310 181 50 348417565982 217425 324 367 135 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE3 teams — 283250 63828 207311 242 252337396733 144317 267 321 103 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE2 teams — 574494 10920413 5319822 385 221323356679 136326 349 299 89 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202421 A MLEFredericksburg Nationals — 2523 8310 181 50 348417565982 217425 324 367 135 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE3 teams — 283250 63828 207311 242 252337396733 144317 267 321 103 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE2 teams — 574494 10920413 5319822 385 221323356679 136326 349 299 89 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLEWSH 2% 380331 701329 3412312 152 210305341646 131299 329 294 85 -7 +2 -0 -2 +8 0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXWSH 2% 44 0000 010 00 209305338643 129298 250 293 85 -0 +0 -0 -0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLEWSH 31% 496434 9317313 4415715 172 214309354663 140299 329 300 89 -6 +3 -0 -3 +11 0.4
202926 MLB MLEWSH 45% 515449 9818314 4616115 162 216310362672 146299 319 304 92 -5 +2 -0 -3 +11 0.5
203027 MLB MLEWSH 49% 521454 9918314 4716115 142 217310362672 145298 319 304 92 -5 +2 -0 -3 +11 0.5
203128 MLB MLEWSH 52% 520455 9918314 4616014 122 216308359668 143296 319 302 90 -6 +2 -1 -3 +11 0.3
203229 MLB MLEWSH 52% 321282 611128 28988 71 215306355661 140294 319 299 89 -4 +1 -2 -2 +7 0.0
203330 MLB MLEWSH 52% 314275 591128 28978 61 212302347650 135292 319 295 85 -5 +1 -2 -2 +7 -0.2
202825 MLB CTXWSH 31% 154134 29514 14495 51 213308352660 139298 329 300 89 -2 +1 -0 -1 +3 0.1
202926 MLB CTXWSH 45% 230200 43816 21727 71 216310360670 144298 319 303 92 -2 +1 -0 -1 +5 0.2
203027 MLB CTXWSH 49% 256224 48917 23797 71 216309360669 143297 319 303 92 -3 +1 -0 -2 +6 0.2
203128 MLB CTXWSH 52% 268235 50917 24827 61 216308357665 141296 319 301 90 -3 +1 -1 -2 +6 0.1
203229 MLB CTXWSH 52% 165145 31614 15504 30 215306354659 139294 309 299 89 -2 +1 -1 -1 +4 0.0
203330 MLB CTXWSH 52% 162143 31614 14504 30 212302346648 134292 319 294 85 -3 +1 -1 -1 +4 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 12351081 23243632 11138234 314 215308354662 140297 319 300 91 -15 +5 -3 -7 +27 0.6
/ 162G— A+C — 650569 12223317 5820118 162 214307355662 141297 319 300 91 -8 +2 -2 -4 +14 0.3
Career— MLE — 37793296 7271312497 3321181116 14718 221314363677 143309 319 302 91 -36 +12 -6 -17 +63 1.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650567 12623417 5720320 253 222315367682 145311 319 302 91 -8 +3 -1 -4 +14 0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 419 PAwOBA .357 → .305 (−52)K% 27.9% → 34.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.92%÷1.000×1.220——34.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.32%÷1.000×0.700—×1.02710.29%
HBP% /PA3.82%—×0.850—×1.0273.33%
Singles /BIP22.58%÷1.000×0.970×0.979×1.02722.03%
Doubles /BIP7.83%÷1.000×0.860×0.979×1.0276.78%
Triples /BIP1.38%÷1.000×0.950×0.979×1.0271.32%
Home runs /BIP5.99%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0274.80%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .357 → .305; ISO .186 → .156; BABIP .333 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 155 PAwOBA .319 → .284 (−36)K% 29.7% → 35.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.68%÷1.000×1.200——35.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.39%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0506.08%
HBP% /PA3.87%—×0.940—×1.0503.82%
Singles /BIP27.27%÷1.000×0.930×1.050×1.05027.96%
Doubles /BIP6.82%÷1.000×0.830×1.050×1.0506.24%
Triples /BIP1.14%÷1.000×0.970×1.050×1.0501.22%
Home runs /BIP3.41%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0502.51%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .319 → .284; ISO .127 → .102; BABIP .365 → .363. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 172 PAwOBA .382 → .315 (−67)K% 18.0% → 24.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.02%÷0.960×1.310——24.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.05%÷0.986×0.600—×1.0126.81%
HBP% /PA2.91%—×0.770—×1.0122.27%
Singles /BIP25.44%÷1.004×0.870×1.008×1.01222.47%
Doubles /BIP5.26%÷0.948×0.780×1.008×1.0124.42%
Triples /BIP1.75%÷1.000×0.850×1.008×1.0121.52%
Home runs /BIP5.26%÷0.967×0.880—×1.0124.84%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .382 → .315; ISO .193 → .173; BABIP .339 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Nationals · 42 PAwOBA .465 → .344 (−121)K% 21.4% → 31.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.43%÷0.995×1.440——31.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.29%÷1.012×0.620—×0.9758.53%
HBP% /PA9.52%—×0.720—×0.9756.69%
Singles /BIP45.45%÷0.946×0.820—×0.97538.42%
Doubles /BIP4.55%÷1.138×0.720—×0.9752.81%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.929×0.720—×0.9750.00%
Home runs /BIP4.55%÷1.328×0.780—×0.9752.60%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 166, 1B 89, 2B 128, 3B 86, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .465 → .344; ISO .129 → .077; BABIP .500 → .405. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFredericksburg Nationals · 25 PAwOBA .426 → .367 (−59)K% 24.0% → 31.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.00%÷1.038×1.360——31.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.00%÷1.044×0.690—×1.0152.68%
HBP% /PA4.00%—×0.780—×1.0153.17%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.024×0.920—×1.01522.79%
Doubles /BIP18.75%÷0.907×0.830—×1.01517.42%
Triples /BIP6.25%÷1.150×0.910—×1.0155.02%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.078×0.800—×1.0150.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 105, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 108, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .426 → .367; ISO .227 → .196; BABIP .471 → .425. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .