Elmer Rodríguez

P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 177 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.9 · 2030

Overview

AAASP40-MANROOKIEFG #65Pre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	21	20	90	2.91	2.99	27.2%	11.5%	—	K 20.4% · BB 13.4% · FIP 3.98
2025	21	MIX3 levels	27	26	150	2.58	2.15	29.0%	9.4%	—	K 23.3% · BB 11.0% · FIP 2.87
2026	22	MIX2 levels	27	27	133	3.05	3.47	22.0%	12.2%	2.3	K 19.4% · BB 11.3% · FIP 3.59
2027PROJ	23	MLBNYY	21	21	112	4.35	4.28	22.5%	11.5%	0.8
2028PROJ68% MLB	24	MLBNYY	20	20	111	4.31	4.23	23.0%	10.5%	1.0
2029PROJ80% MLB	25	MLBNYY	24	24	140	4.21	4.15	23.3%	9.9%	1.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$9M2030Arb-2$15M2031Arb-3$22M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Whiff%76

FB Velo62

K%13

xwOBA vs12

Career WAR1 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 26, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 63%

CompsChad Patrick (age 23) · Glenn Sparkman (age 23) · TJ Shook (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 98

ERA4.35

FIP4.28

K%22.5%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%11.0%

Proj IP112

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 112 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL4550

CMD4550

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p7629.3%

p1316.8%

xwOBA vs

p120.357

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2029	Arb-1	$9M	+1.4	$10M	+$3M
2030	Arb-2	$15M	+1.6	$10M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$22M	+1.5	$9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$10M		$38M	+$10M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	38	161	42	15	0	77%	2.9	17.9%	10.9%	6.9%	0.0%	1.88	2.98	—
2022	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	38	161	42	15	0	77%	2.9	26.1%	9.3%	16.8%	0.0%	1.88	2.08	—
2023	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	14	14	55	226	51	27	4	100%	4.0	16.7%	14.1%	2.6%	2.3%	2.60	4.74	—
2023	19	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	14	14	55	226	51	27	4	100%	4.0	22.6%	11.9%	10.6%	1.8%	2.60	3.66	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	90	375	102	43	5	95%	4.3	20.4%	13.4%	7.0%	1.7%	2.91	3.98	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	90	375	102	43	5	95%	4.3	20.4%	13.4%	7.0%	1.7%	2.91	3.98	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	90	375	102	43	5	95%	4.3	27.2%	11.5%	15.7%	1.3%	2.91	2.99	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	150	607	176	57	3	96%	5.6	23.3%	11.0%	12.2%	0.6%	2.58	2.87	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	150	607	176	57	3	96%	5.6	23.3%	11.0%	12.2%	0.6%	2.58	2.87	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	26	150	607	176	57	3	96%	5.6	29.0%	9.4%	19.6%	0.5%	2.58	2.15	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	133	573	126	70	7	100%	4.9	19.4%	11.3%	8.2%	1.3%	3.05	3.59	+2.1
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	133	573	126	70	7	100%	4.9	19.4%	11.3%	8.2%	1.3%	3.05	3.59	+2.1
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	133	573	126	70	7	100%	4.9	22.0%	12.2%	9.8%	1.2%	3.05	3.47	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	6	27	125	21	16	2	100%	4.4	16.8%	12.8%	4.0%	1.6%	5.40	4.30	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	NYY	21	21	112	473	106	54	11	100%	5.3	22.5%	11.5%	11.0%	2.3%	4.35	4.28	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYY	29	29	164	694	159	73	16	100%	5.7	23.0%	10.5%	12.5%	2.3%	4.22	4.14	+1.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYY	30	30	175	739	172	73	17	100%	5.8	23.3%	9.9%	13.4%	2.3%	4.12	4.06	+1.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYY	29	29	175	739	173	72	18	100%	6.0	23.4%	9.8%	13.7%	2.4%	4.08	4.04	+1.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYY	29	29	172	728	170	71	18	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	2.4%	4.09	4.09	+1.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYY	29	29	172	728	169	72	19	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.9%	13.3%	2.5%	4.14	4.17	+1.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYY	27	27	165	695	157	71	19	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	2.7%	4.25	4.33	+1.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYY	26	26	155	653	143	68	19	100%	5.9	21.9%	10.5%	11.5%	2.9%	4.42	4.54	+0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	NYY	24	24	144	609	129	66	19	100%	6.0	21.2%	10.8%	10.4%	3.1%	4.63	4.77	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	NYY	22	22	134	564	115	63	19	100%	6.1	20.4%	11.2%	9.2%	3.4%	4.87	5.03	-0.2
2037	33	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	122	517	101	60	19	100%	6.1	19.6%	11.7%	7.9%	3.6%	5.13	5.31	-0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYY	20	20	111	469	108	49	12	100%	5.5	23.0%	10.5%	12.5%	2.5%	4.31	4.23	+1.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYY	24	24	140	591	138	59	15	100%	5.8	23.3%	9.9%	13.4%	2.5%	4.21	4.15	+1.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYY	25	25	152	642	150	63	16	100%	6.1	23.4%	9.8%	13.7%	2.5%	4.17	4.13	+1.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYY	26	26	155	654	153	64	17	100%	6.0	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	2.6%	4.18	4.18	+1.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYY	26	26	158	667	155	66	18	100%	6.1	23.2%	9.9%	13.3%	2.7%	4.23	4.26	+1.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYY	26	26	153	646	146	66	19	100%	5.9	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	2.9%	4.35	4.43	+1.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYY	24	24	145	612	134	64	19	100%	6.0	21.9%	10.5%	11.5%	3.1%	4.53	4.65	+0.6
2035	31	MLB CTX	NYY	23	23	137	578	123	63	19	100%	6.0	21.2%	10.8%	10.4%	3.3%	4.75	4.89	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	NYY	21	21	127	536	109	60	19	100%	6.0	20.4%	11.2%	9.2%	3.6%	4.99	5.15	-0.2
2037	33	MLB CTX	NYY	19	19	116	490	96	57	19	100%	6.1	19.6%	11.7%	7.9%	3.9%	5.26	5.44	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		240	240	1420	6008	1332	626	175	100%	5.9	22.2%	10.4%	11.8%	2.9%	4.49	4.14	+12.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	846	188	88	25	100%	5.9	22.2%	10.4%	11.8%	2.9%	4.49	4.14	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		102	97	466	1942	395	231	23	95%	4.6	20.4%	11.9%	8.5%	1.2%	2.72	3.53	+9.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	833	170	99	10	95%	4.6	20.4%	11.9%	8.5%	1.2%	2.72	3.53	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Elmer Rodríguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.28	22.5%	11.5%	2.3%	—	4.08	23.2%	13.2%	514	-0.20	—	—	—
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	88
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	86
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	84
Rubby De La Rosa R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	22	SP-	3.75	23.6%	11.0%	2.3%	.300	4.27	16.2%	8.8%	113	+0.52	3.75	455	82
Trevor May R 2014 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP	4.40	20.7%	9.9%	3.3%	.369	3.18	25.0%	19.1%	157	-1.22	3.05	477	82
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	82
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	81
Bud Norris R 2009 · 4.47 FIP	24	SP	4.47	21.7%	9.6%	3.6%	.309	4.01	22.5%	13.5%	508	-0.46	3.51	1,221	81
Silvano Hechavarria R 2024 · 4.05 FIP	21	SP	4.05	20.0%	10.3%	2.4%	.212	5.06	15.6%	5.4%	169	+1.01	3.90	218	81
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	80
Jared Lyons R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP	4.72	22.1%	14.4%	3.0%	.258	4.13	17.6%	8.7%	173	-0.59	3.28	265	80
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	80
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	79
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	79
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	79
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.08	17.8%	6.3%	296	+0.09	4.14	536	79
Rafael Montero R 2014 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	21.6%	11.9%	4.1%	.298	4.32	19.3%	8.2%	296	-0.72	2.43	714	78
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	334	78
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	78
Mike Ruff R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.73	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.73	4.00	260	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.6	143	22.3%	10.5%	1.04	4.37
Jim Bibby ('72-'84, 16 WAR*)	8.6	157	21.9%*	9.8%*	1.05*	4.32*
Ubaldo Jiménez ('17)	9.3	170	21.3%	10.5%	0.90	4.34
Bob Weiland ('28-'40, 10 WAR*)	6.9	139	22.6%*	9.9%*	1.15*	4.26*
Edinson Volquez ('20)	7.7	129	19.5%	10.8%	0.93	4.45
Erik Bedard ('14)	6.5	130	22.2%	9.5%	0.90	3.99
Tom Phoebus ('66-'72, 10 WAR*)	5.2	147	21.2%*	11.0%*	1.06*	4.25*