Devin Futrell

P Greenville Drive

Age 24 LHP 6'5" / 218 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.2 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP40OGV rank#287ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	17	17	63	1.87	2.91	15.9%	5.6%	—	K 11.9% · BB 6.5% · FIP 3.56
2026	23	MIX3 levels	23	19	115	3.98	3.37	27.7%	4.0%	—	K 21.3% · BB 4.4% · FIP 4.64
2027PROJ	24	MLBBOS	—	—	0	4.32	4.32	20.1%	5.2%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBBOS	6	6	38	4.22	4.19	20.8%	5.3%	0.5
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBBOS	10	10	58	4.19	4.17	21.1%	5.5%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$1M2034Arb-2$1M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 4.1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 89%

CompsJake Bennett (age 22) · T.J. Sikkema (age 24) · Cory Luebke (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.32

FIP4.32

K%20.1%

BB%5.2%

K-BB%14.9%

Proj IP64

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$32M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.6M
2034	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.1M
2035	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M
Totals		$7M		$10M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	63	252	40	14	2	100%	3.7	11.9%	6.5%	5.4%	1.2%	1.87	3.56	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	63	252	40	14	2	100%	3.7	11.9%	6.5%	5.4%	1.2%	1.87	3.56	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	63	252	40	14	2	100%	3.7	15.9%	5.6%	10.3%	0.8%	1.87	2.91	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	19	115	470	130	19	18	83%	5.0	21.3%	4.4%	16.9%	5.1%	3.98	4.64	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	19	115	470	130	19	18	83%	5.0	21.3%	4.4%	16.9%	5.1%	3.98	4.64	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	19	115	470	130	19	18	83%	5.0	27.7%	4.0%	23.6%	3.8%	3.98	3.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.1%	5.2%	14.9%	3.4%	4.32	4.32	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	89	376	78	20	13	100%	5.9	20.8%	5.3%	15.5%	3.4%	4.27	4.24	+1.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	87	368	78	20	12	100%	5.8	21.1%	5.5%	15.6%	3.3%	4.24	4.22	+1.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	85	357	76	20	12	100%	6.0	21.1%	5.7%	15.5%	3.4%	4.25	4.26	+1.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	81	341	72	20	12	100%	6.2	21.0%	5.9%	15.2%	3.5%	4.31	4.34	+1.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	75	318	66	19	11	100%	5.8	20.8%	6.1%	14.7%	3.6%	4.41	4.48	+0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	68	288	59	18	11	100%	6.2	20.4%	6.4%	14.1%	3.8%	4.56	4.65	+0.6
2034	31	MLB MLE	BOS	10	10	60	255	51	17	10	100%	6.0	20.1%	6.7%	13.3%	4.0%	4.74	4.85	+0.4
2035	32	MLB MLE	BOS	10	10	58	246	53	16	11	100%	5.8	21.6%	6.3%	15.3%	4.3%	4.78	4.81	+0.4
2036	33	MLB MLE	BOS	8	8	50	209	44	14	10	100%	6.2	21.1%	6.8%	14.3%	4.6%	4.95	5.06	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	38	160	33	9	5	100%	6.3	20.8%	5.3%	15.5%	3.3%	4.22	4.19	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	58	245	52	13	8	100%	5.8	21.1%	5.5%	15.6%	3.3%	4.19	4.17	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	65	274	58	16	9	100%	5.9	21.1%	5.7%	15.5%	3.3%	4.20	4.21	+0.9
2031	28	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	68	287	60	17	10	100%	6.2	21.0%	5.9%	15.2%	3.4%	4.26	4.29	+0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	66	279	58	17	10	100%	6.0	20.8%	6.1%	14.7%	3.5%	4.36	4.43	+0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	61	258	53	16	10	100%	6.1	20.4%	6.4%	14.1%	3.7%	4.51	4.60	+0.5
2034	31	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	55	232	47	16	9	100%	6.1	20.1%	6.7%	13.3%	3.9%	4.68	4.79	+0.3
2035	32	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	54	228	49	14	10	100%	6.0	21.6%	6.3%	15.3%	4.2%	4.72	4.75	+0.4
2036	33	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	46	194	41	13	9	100%	5.8	21.1%	6.8%	14.3%	4.4%	4.89	5.00	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		86	86	512	2162	452	131	79	100%	6.0	20.9%	6.1%	14.8%	3.6%	4.44	4.10	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	177	51	31	100%	6.0	20.9%	6.1%	14.8%	3.6%	4.44	4.10	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		40	36	178	722	130	37	27	90%	4.5	18.0%	5.1%	12.9%	3.7%	3.24	4.26	+6.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	40	200	811	146	42	30	90%	4.4	18.0%	5.1%	12.9%	3.7%	3.24	4.26	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Greenville Drive · 75 IPFIP 3.85 → 5.11 (+1.26)K% 27.9% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.87%	—	×0.770	21.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.59%	—	×1.150	5.28%
HR / BF /BF	4.59%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.74%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.85 → 5.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 32 IPFIP 2.82 → 3.59 (+0.77)K% 25.9% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.810	21.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.22%	—	×1.100	2.44%
HR / BF /BF	2.96%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.56%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.82 → 3.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ASalem RidgeYaks · 9 IPFIP 1.13 → 2.01 (+0.88)K% 33.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.740	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.180	7.87%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.13 → 2.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ASalem Red Sox · 38 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.98 (+0.88)K% 18.3% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.30%	—	×0.740	13.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.54%	—	×1.180	7.71%
HR / BF /BF	1.31%	÷0.891	×1.300	1.91%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greenville Drive · 25 IPFIP 2.59 → 2.90 (+0.31)K% 12.1% → 9.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.12%	—	×0.770	9.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.04%	—	×1.150	4.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.117	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.59 → 2.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Devin Futrell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	20.1%	5.2%	3.4%	—	4.24	21.0%	15.5%	261	-0.08	—	—	—
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.29	19.3%	13.9%	222	-0.12	3.22	285	80
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	78
Cory Luebke L 2010 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP-	4.21	23.7%	7.9%	3.9%	.286	2.84	25.9%	18.7%	171	-1.37	2.80	216	77
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	77
Jeff Locke L 2012 · 4.51 FIP	24	SP-	4.51	23.0%	7.4%	4.4%	.309	4.01	17.2%	8.4%	466	-0.50	3.79	676	75
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	75
Michael Plassmeyer L 2021 · 4.26 FIP	24	SP	4.26	21.5%	5.4%	4.2%	.337	4.74	21.6%	13.9%	266	+0.48	3.42	653	75
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	75
Isaiah Coupet L 2024 · 3.52 FIP	21	SP-	3.52	23.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.363	6.24	10.4%	-6.7%	16	+2.72	3.52	102	75
Marc Rzepczynski L 2010 · 4.23 FIP	24	SP	4.23	19.9%	10.1%	2.8%	.332	3.54	21.2%	13.0%	139	-0.69	2.43	491	74
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	73
Cliff Lee L 2003 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	21.0%	9.0%	3.3%	.243	4.34	17.2%	9.8%	582	+0.03	2.49	2,146	73
Jackson Wolf L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SP	4.16	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.279	4.28	18.8%	9.8%	354	+0.12	4.03	620	73
Christian Friedrich L 2012 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	19.6%	8.0%	3.3%	.340	3.59	19.0%	10.6%	83	-0.67	3.39	297	72
Antonio Velez L 2021 · 3.58 FIP	24	SP-	3.58	19.0%	3.3%	3.0%	.241	5.02	19.3%	12.9%	88	+1.44	3.58	187	72
Ryan Rolison L 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP	3.81	21.5%	6.9%	3.0%	.320	5.17	15.0%	10.0%	35	+1.36	3.81	390	72
Shane Murphy L 2024 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.4%	4.7%	5.8%	.262	4.77	15.6%	10.2%	272	-0.75	4.00	460	72
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	71
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	71
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	72	20.8%	5.9%	1.42	4.44
Ron Taylor ('62-'72, 3 WAR*)	4.0	80	17.8%*	6.8%*	1.26*	4.74*
Tyler Duffey ('24)	2.4	61	23.1%	7.0%	1.24	4.57
Jesse Chavez ('25)	5.7	82	21.4%	7.4%	1.32	4.27
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65
Craig Lefferts ('83-'94, 10 WAR*)	5.7	95	19.5%*	6.7%*	1.40*	3.93*
Mark Huismann ('83-'91, 1 WAR*)	1.5	74	23.8%*	6.5%*	1.30*	4.49*