Devin Futrell — OGILVIE

Devin Futrell P Greenville Drive

Age 23 LHP 6'5" / 218 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.7 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%15.0%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP44

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$22M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$9M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	63	252	40	14	2	100%	3.7	11.9%	6.5%	5.4%	1.2%	1.87	3.56	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	63	252	40	14	2	100%	3.7	11.9%	6.5%	5.4%	1.2%	1.87	3.56	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	63	252	40	14	2	100%	3.7	15.9%	5.6%	10.3%	0.8%	1.87	2.91	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	23	19	115	470	130	19	18	83%	5.0	21.3%	4.4%	16.9%	5.1%	3.98	4.64	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	23	19	115	470	130	19	18	83%	5.0	21.3%	4.4%	16.9%	5.1%	3.98	4.64	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	BOS	2	1	9	30	10	2	0	50%	4.5	33.3%	6.7%	26.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.13	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	BOS	15	12	75	305	85	14	14	80%	5.0	27.9%	4.6%	23.3%	4.6%	4.22	3.85	—
2026	23	AA RAW	BOS	6	6	32	135	35	3	4	100%	5.3	25.9%	2.2%	23.7%	3.0%	4.55	2.82	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BOS	21	21	116	489	84	33	13	100%	5.5	17.2%	6.8%	10.4%	2.7%	4.44	4.37	+0.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	20	20	117	494	92	33	13	100%	5.9	18.5%	6.7%	11.8%	2.7%	4.33	4.25	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	BOS	20	20	117	494	96	33	13	100%	5.9	19.3%	6.8%	12.6%	2.7%	4.25	4.20	+1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	115	487	94	33	14	100%	6.1	19.4%	6.9%	12.5%	2.8%	4.24	4.24	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	112	472	91	33	14	100%	5.9	19.2%	7.0%	12.2%	2.9%	4.29	4.32	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	107	451	86	33	14	100%	5.9	19.0%	7.2%	11.8%	3.0%	4.39	4.45	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	BOS	17	17	100	424	79	32	14	100%	5.9	18.7%	7.5%	11.1%	3.2%	4.53	4.63	+0.3
2034	31	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	94	395	72	31	14	100%	5.8	18.3%	7.9%	10.4%	3.5%	4.71	4.83	+0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	87	366	65	30	14	100%	6.2	17.8%	8.3%	9.5%	3.7%	4.92	5.06	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	50	211	36	14	6	100%	5.6	17.2%	6.8%	10.4%	2.6%	4.40	4.33	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	78	329	61	22	9	100%	6.0	18.5%	6.7%	11.8%	2.6%	4.29	4.21	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	93	393	76	27	10	100%	5.8	19.3%	6.8%	12.6%	2.7%	4.21	4.16	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	98	414	80	28	11	100%	6.1	19.4%	6.9%	12.5%	2.7%	4.20	4.20	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	BOS	17	17	100	422	81	30	12	100%	5.9	19.2%	7.0%	12.2%	2.8%	4.25	4.28	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	97	410	78	30	12	100%	6.1	19.0%	7.2%	11.8%	3.0%	4.35	4.41	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	93	393	73	30	12	100%	5.8	18.7%	7.5%	11.1%	3.1%	4.49	4.59	+0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	87	367	67	29	12	100%	6.2	18.3%	7.9%	10.4%	3.4%	4.66	4.78	+0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	81	342	61	28	12	100%	5.8	17.8%	8.3%	9.5%	3.6%	4.87	5.01	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		130	130	776	3277	613	237	97	100%	6.0	18.7%	7.2%	11.5%	3.0%	4.41	4.06	+7.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	158	61	25	100%	6.0	18.7%	7.2%	11.5%	3.0%	4.41	4.06	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		40	36	178	722	130	37	27	90%	4.5	18.0%	5.1%	12.9%	3.7%	3.24	4.26	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	40	200	811	146	42	30	90%	4.4	18.0%	5.1%	12.9%	3.7%	3.24	4.26	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Devin Futrell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	15.0%	6.9%	2.7%	—	4.27	18.4%	11.6%	350	-0.31	—	—	—
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	85
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	85
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	82
Jordan Carr L 2022 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	4.01	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.15	3.49	269	81
Russell Smith L 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	16.0%	10.4%	3.8%	.272	4.64	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.50	4.00	175	81
Zach Draper L 2018 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	13.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.289	5.06	14.9%	6.1%	166	+0.89	4.17	206	81
Jake Zokan L 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SP	4.89	12.5%	9.9%	2.9%	.292	1.79	24.2%	22.5%	37	-3.10	1.79	120	79
Ben Brecht L 2021 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	17.3%	5.5%	3.8%	.237	4.44	21.1%	17.2%	43	+0.01	4.43	118	79
Rob Zastryzny L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	23	SP	5.33	13.8%	10.9%	3.7%	.345	4.28	18.5%	9.1%	268	-1.05	3.34	634	77
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	77
Eric Jokisch L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	26	SP	4.34	11.1%	7.1%	2.3%	.307	4.05	14.7%	6.8%	342	-0.29	3.78	412	77
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	76
Adam Wolf L 2019 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP	4.00	14.1%	9.6%	1.6%	.383	4.35	18.9%	9.7%	196	+0.35	3.91	383	76
Evan Grills L 2015 · 5.42 FIP	23	SP-	5.42	13.0%	8.6%	4.2%	.335	4.02	16.1%	11.6%	221	-1.40	3.41	309	75
Alex Delgado L 2017 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP	4.21	12.9%	4.2%	3.0%	.306	4.40	18.4%	12.0%	142	+0.19	2.93	378	75
Trey McGough L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	15.8%	6.1%	2.2%	.278	3.37	21.4%	13.3%	99	-0.35	2.83	227	75
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	75
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	75
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	75
Jarlín García L 2016 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	13.0%	7.2%	2.0%	.270	4.64	16.3%	8.7%	219	+0.62	2.52	544	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.0	101	18.5%	7.2%	1.15	4.44
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17