Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 17 | 63 | 252 | 40 | 14 | 2 | 100% | 3.7 | 11.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 1.3% | 1.87 | 3.64 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 17 | 63 | 252 | 40 | 14 | 2 | 100% | 3.7 | 15.9% | 5.6% | 10.3% | 0.8% | 1.87 | 2.91 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 14 | 10 | 66 | 265 | 70 | 11 | 13 | 71% | 4.7 | 19.7% | 4.4% | 15.3% | 6.9% | 4.11 | 5.79 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BOS | 7 | 7 | 44 | 185 | 37 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.0% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 2.7% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.0% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 2.7% | 4.34 | 4.34 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 110 | 450 | 107 | 26 | 18 | — | — | 23.8% | 5.9% | 17.9% | 4.0% | 4.20 | 5.21 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.0% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 2.7% | 4.34 | 3.96 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 3 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 6.3 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 4.23 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 20 | 83 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 6.5 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 3.86 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 844 | 174 | 71 | 20 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 31 | 27 | 128 | 517 | 82 | 28 | 22 | 87% | 4.1 | 15.9% | 5.4% | 10.4% | 4.2% | 3.02 | 4.75 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 42 | 200 | 806 | 128 | 44 | 34 | 87% | 4.1 | 15.9% | 5.4% | 10.4% | 4.2% | 3.02 | 4.75 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Devin Futrell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 20.0% | 8.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.23 | 21.0% | 12.8% | 45 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Jake Bennett L 2025 · 3.54 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.54 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .339 | 3.10 | 19.0% | 12.8% | 156 | -0.44 | 2.79 | 219 | 84 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 82 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .349 | 4.18 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 175 | -0.31 | 3.65 | 308 | 81 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.4% | .312 | 4.46 | 21.0% | 7.7% | 184 | +0.10 | 3.84 | 249 | 81 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .360 | 5.95 | 16.3% | -2.8% | 144 | +1.15 | 4.80 | 223 | 81 |
| Hogan Harris L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.73 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 1.9% | .235 | 3.64 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.09 | 3.14 | 473 | 81 |
| Ben Brecht L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.37 | 17.3% | 5.5% | 3.7% | .237 | 4.39 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 43 | +0.02 | 4.37 | 118 | 81 |
| Hunter Barco L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.51 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .275 | 3.79 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 150 | +0.28 | 3.51 | 212 | 80 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.06 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.60 | 15.1% | 4.8% | 51 | +2.54 | 4.06 | 248 | 80 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 79 |
| Austin Emener L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.86 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% | .306 | 5.42 | 23.7% | 8.9% | 49 | +0.56 | 4.86 | 109 | 79 |
| Austin Warner L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.06 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .291 | 4.43 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 284 | +0.37 | 3.88 | 491 | 79 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.35 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 119 | -0.28 | 3.54 | 186 | 79 |
| Cole Ragans L 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.15 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.38 | 26.8% | 17.4% | 445 | -1.77 | 2.46 | 623 | 78 |
| Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 78 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 78 |
| Dalton Pence L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.89 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 153 | 78 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 78 |
| Kyle Twomey L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.89 | 14.8% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 141 | 77 |
| Nate Peterson L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .284 | 4.47 | 17.1% | 5.8% | 213 | +0.07 | 3.67 | 288 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 44 | 20.5% | 8.2% | 1.05 | 4.30 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Trevor Gott ('23) | 4 | 51 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 0.79 | 3.97 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |