Brendan Girton
P
Binghamton Rumble Ponies
+0.8
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 217 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.4 · 2028
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.4%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%11.7%
IP87
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.4peak
2028
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 12.00 | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 25 | 21 | 87 | 364 | 101 | 40 | 3 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 1.0% | 3.10 | 3.41 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 2 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 10 | 1 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYM | 16 | 16 | 87 | 367 | 82 | 39 | 9 | 22.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 94 | 397 | 87 | 49 | 10 | 22.0% | 12.4% | 2.5% | 4.48 | 4.00 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 96 | 42 | 11 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.5% | 4.24 | 4.20 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 107 | 452 | 103 | 44 | 12 | 22.9% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 4.21 | 4.18 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 110 | 466 | 106 | 45 | 12 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 111 | 467 | 106 | 45 | 12 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 4.21 | 4.22 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 108 | 456 | 103 | 44 | 12 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.27 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 105 | 443 | 99 | 44 | 12 | 22.5% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.33 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 18 | 18 | 101 | 427 | 95 | 43 | 12 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.40 | +1.0 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 18 | 18 | 97 | 410 | 90 | 42 | 12 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.49 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 17 | 17 | 93 | 392 | 85 | 40 | 12 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.59 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 16 | 16 | 88 | 372 | 79 | 39 | 11 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.70 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 15 | 15 | 83 | 351 | 73 | 38 | 11 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.82 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 74 | 33 | 11 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.71 | 4.68 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | NYM | 13 | 13 | 72 | 304 | 67 | 32 | 10 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.83 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 24 | 97 | 410 | 88 | 60 | 5 | 21.5% | 14.6% | 1.1% | 3.63 | 3.74 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 50 | 200 | 848 | 182 | 124 | 10 | 21.5% | 14.6% | 1.1% | 3.63 | 3.74 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brendan Girton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 22.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | — | 4.19 | 22.8% | 13.0% | 318 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 91 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 90 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 89 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 89 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.67 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .280 | 6.90 | 17.1% | 1.8% | 38 | +3.23 | 3.67 | 270 | 89 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .288 | 4.37 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 313 | +0.06 | 2.50 | 554 | 88 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 88 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .296 | 5.08 | 18.4% | 6.8% | 57 | +0.50 | 4.27 | 238 | 87 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .319 | 3.42 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.56 | 3.15 | 349 | 86 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 86 |
| Alex Pham R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.07 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.7% | .284 | 3.78 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 41 | -0.29 | 3.78 | 293 | 86 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 86 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 86 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.75 | 19.4% | 11.8% | 1.5% | .264 | 5.04 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 312 | +1.29 | 2.95 | 492 | 85 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .359 | 4.85 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.83 | 4.02 | 118 | 85 |
| George Klassen R 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.2% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 196 | 85 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .287 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 15.7% | 313 | -0.17 | 3.31 | 571 | 85 |
| Matt Wotherspoon R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.34 | 19.6% | 9.5% | 1.3% | .254 | 4.28 | 22.7% | 13.5% | 233 | +0.94 | 2.96 | 419 | 85 |
| Cole Sands R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.65 | 23.3% | 11.5% | 1.9% | .269 | 3.55 | 25.1% | 17.3% | 216 | -0.10 | 2.31 | 462 | 85 |
| Austin Cates R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.4 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.4 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.2 | $11M | +$9M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.0 | $10M | +$6M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +0.9 | $5M | +$0.6M |
| Totals | $12M | $63M | +$51M | ||