Brendan Girton — OGILVIE

Brendan Girton P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 217 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION83 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 103

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

K%22.4%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%9.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 89 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	3	1	3	16	5	4	0	33%	1.0	31.2%	25.0%	6.2%	0.0%	12.00	3.63	—
2024	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	3	1	3	16	5	4	0	33%	1.0	31.2%	25.0%	6.2%	0.0%	12.00	3.63	—
2024	22	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	3	1	3	16	5	4	0	33%	1.0	31.2%	25.0%	6.2%	0.0%	12.00	3.77	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	87	364	101	40	3	84%	3.5	21.5%	12.6%	8.9%	1.0%	3.10	3.40	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	87	364	101	40	3	84%	3.5	21.5%	12.6%	8.9%	1.0%	3.10	3.40	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	21	87	364	101	40	3	84%	3.5	27.7%	11.0%	16.8%	0.8%	3.10	2.61	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	33	15	83	381	81	57	16	45%	2.5	17.2%	16.5%	0.8%	5.0%	6.72	6.50	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	33	15	83	381	81	57	16	45%	2.5	17.2%	16.5%	0.8%	5.0%	6.72	6.50	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	NYM	33	15	83	381	81	57	16	45%	2.5	21.3%	15.0%	6.3%	4.2%	6.72	5.50	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	NYM	6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.4%	12.7%	9.7%	2.5%	4.55	4.55	0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	89	407	87	60	17	—	—	21.3%	14.8%	6.5%	4.1%	6.57	6.36	-1.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	82	347	79	40	9	100%	5.9	22.9%	11.4%	11.4%	2.5%	4.43	4.37	+0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	82	347	80	39	9	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.1%	11.9%	2.5%	4.37	4.34	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	81	342	79	38	9	100%	5.8	23.0%	11.0%	11.9%	2.6%	4.37	4.37	+0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYM	13	13	79	332	82	34	9	100%	6.1	24.8%	10.3%	14.5%	2.7%	4.26	4.19	+0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYM	13	13	75	318	78	33	9	100%	5.8	24.6%	10.5%	14.1%	2.9%	4.29	4.32	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	71	299	72	32	9	100%	5.9	24.2%	10.8%	13.4%	3.1%	4.41	4.49	+0.3
2033	31	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	66	278	66	31	9	100%	6.0	23.8%	11.2%	12.7%	3.3%	4.58	4.70	+0.2
2034	32	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	61	258	60	30	9	100%	6.1	23.4%	11.6%	11.8%	3.6%	4.79	4.92	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	NYM	6	6	36	152	35	17	4	100%	6.0	22.9%	11.4%	11.4%	2.5%	4.43	4.37	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	55	232	53	26	6	100%	6.1	23.0%	11.1%	11.9%	2.5%	4.37	4.34	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	63	266	61	29	7	100%	6.3	23.0%	11.0%	11.9%	2.6%	4.37	4.37	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	66	279	69	29	8	100%	6.0	24.8%	10.3%	14.5%	2.7%	4.26	4.19	+0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	66	279	68	29	8	100%	6.0	24.6%	10.5%	14.1%	2.9%	4.29	4.32	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	64	270	65	29	8	100%	5.8	24.2%	10.8%	13.4%	3.1%	4.41	4.49	+0.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	60	253	60	28	8	100%	6.0	23.8%	11.2%	12.7%	3.3%	4.58	4.70	+0.1
2034	32	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	57	241	56	28	9	100%	5.7	23.4%	11.6%	11.8%	3.5%	4.79	4.92	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		78	78	467	1971	469	216	57	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.9%	12.8%	2.9%	4.43	4.08	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	201	93	24	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.9%	12.8%	2.9%	4.43	4.08	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		61	37	173	761	149	112	23	61%	2.8	19.6%	14.8%	4.8%	3.0%	4.99	4.96	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	43	200	880	172	130	26	61%	2.8	19.6%	14.8%	4.8%	3.0%	4.99	4.96	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brendan Girton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	22.4%	12.7%	2.5%	—	4.36	22.9%	11.8%	246	-0.19	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	87
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	85
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	84
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	83
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	82
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	82
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	82
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	81
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	81
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	80
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	5.00	17.7%	4.6%	131	-0.27	4.34	382	80
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	80
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	80
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	682	80
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	78
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	78
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	78
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	77
Hunter Gregory R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.0%	12.1%	2.0%	.322	5.11	20.1%	8.3%	161	+1.05	3.84	249	77
Phil Klein R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	26	SW	3.86	18.1%	11.0%	1.6%	.280	3.10	24.5%	17.9%	97	-0.76	3.10	178	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	74	23.6%	11.1%	1.09	4.44
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81