Brendan Girton — OGILVIE

Brendan Girton P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 217 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%22.4%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	22	A	St. Lucie Mets	3	1	3	16	5	4	0	33%	1.0	31.2%	25.0%	6.2%	0.0%	12.00	3.63	—
2024	22	A	St. Lucie Mets	3	1	3	16	5	4	0	33%	1.0	31.2%	25.0%	6.2%	0.0%	12.00	3.77	—
2025	23	MIX	2 levels	25	21	87	364	101	40	3	84%	3.5	21.5%	12.6%	8.9%	0.9%	3.10	3.37	—
2025	23	MIX	2 levels	25	21	87	364	101	40	3	84%	3.5	27.7%	11.0%	16.8%	0.8%	3.10	2.61	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	17	15	63	294	60	47	12	88%	3.7	16.5%	17.6%	-1.1%	4.9%	7.04	6.62	-1.5
ROS	24	MLB	NYM	12	12	65	274	61	34	7	100%	5.4	22.4%	12.4%	10.0%	2.5%	4.51	4.51	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB	NYM	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	22.4%	12.4%	10.0%	2.5%	4.51	4.51	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB	NYM	—	—	127	568	121	81	19	—	—	21.4%	14.3%	7.1%	3.3%	5.75	5.55	-0.2
2026 FULL	24	MLB	NYM	—	—	1	5	1	1	0	—	—	22.5%	12.4%	10.0%	2.5%	4.51	4.12	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	NYM	12	12	68	287	66	33	7	100%	5.7	23.0%	11.3%	11.7%	2.5%	4.40	4.34	+0.3
2028	26	MLB	NYM	11	11	68	287	67	32	7	100%	6.2	23.2%	11.1%	12.1%	2.5%	4.35	4.32	+0.3
2029	27	MLB	NYM	11	11	67	283	66	31	7	100%	6.1	23.2%	11.1%	12.1%	2.6%	4.35	4.36	+0.3
2030	28	MLB	NYM	11	11	65	274	63	31	7	100%	5.9	23.1%	11.2%	11.9%	2.7%	4.40	4.44	+0.2
2031	29	MLB	NYM	10	10	62	262	60	30	8	100%	6.2	22.9%	11.4%	11.4%	2.9%	4.50	4.57	+0.0
2032	30	MLB	NYM	10	10	58	247	56	29	8	100%	5.8	22.5%	11.7%	10.8%	3.1%	4.65	4.75	-0.1
2033	31	MLB	NYM	9	9	54	230	51	28	8	100%	6.1	22.1%	12.1%	10.0%	3.3%	4.83	4.95	-0.3
2027	25	MLB	NYM	5	5	30	127	29	14	3	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.3%	11.7%	2.5%	4.40	4.34	+0.1
2028	26	MLB	NYM	8	8	45	190	44	21	5	100%	5.6	23.2%	11.1%	12.1%	2.5%	4.35	4.32	+0.1
2029	27	MLB	NYM	9	9	52	220	51	24	6	100%	5.8	23.2%	11.1%	12.1%	2.6%	4.35	4.36	+0.1
2030	28	MLB	NYM	9	9	55	232	54	26	6	100%	6.1	23.1%	11.2%	11.9%	2.7%	4.40	4.44	+0.1
2031	29	MLB	NYM	9	9	54	228	52	26	7	100%	6.0	22.9%	11.4%	11.4%	2.9%	4.50	4.57	-0.0
2032	30	MLB	NYM	9	9	53	224	50	26	7	100%	5.9	22.5%	11.7%	10.8%	3.1%	4.65	4.75	-0.1
2033	31	MLB	NYM	8	8	50	211	47	26	7	100%	6.2	22.1%	12.1%	10.0%	3.3%	4.83	4.95	-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			57	57	340	1437	328	164	40	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.4%	11.4%	2.8%	4.50	4.16	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—			33	33	200	844	193	96	24	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.4%	11.4%	2.8%	4.50	4.16	+2.9
Career	—			45	37	153	674	132	101	18	82%	3.4	19.6%	15.0%	4.5%	2.6%	4.89	4.79	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—			59	48	200	883	173	133	23	82%	3.4	19.6%	15.0%	4.5%	2.6%	4.89	4.79	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brendan Girton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	22.4%	12.4%	2.5%	—	4.34	23.1%	12.0%	203	-0.17	—	—	—
Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP	3.87	23.2%	10.7%	2.5%	.239	5.71	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.84	3.87	325	83
Drew Rasmussen R 2026 · 3.62 FIP	24	SP-	3.62	24.6%	12.6%	1.8%	.312	3.26	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.36	1.21	621	83
David Lebron R 2027 · 4.18 FIP	25	SP-	4.18	18.6%	14.2%	1.6%	.336	5.07	26.7%	12.0%	62	+0.89	4.18	144	81
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP-	3.87	20.4%	9.6%	2.3%	.300	4.37	19.6%	9.8%	143	+0.50	3.87	247	80
Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP	4.24	18.9%	10.3%	2.6%	.329	4.33	21.3%	10.9%	132	+0.09	2.63	213	80
Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	19.5%	10.5%	2.9%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.01	3.42	237	80
Cole Sands R 2026 · 3.57 FIP	24	SP	3.57	23.3%	11.5%	1.8%	.269	3.64	25.1%	17.3%	216	+0.07	2.28	473	80
Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP-	3.93	20.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.287	4.58	19.4%	11.0%	140	+0.65	3.90	202	80
Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	21.9%	13.2%	3.6%	.314	4.49	18.6%	4.7%	123	-0.42	4.16	164	80
Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.26 FIP	24	SP	4.26	19.3%	14.1%	1.8%	.258	4.83	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.57	4.26	151	79
Matt Ball R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP-	4.63	21.3%	12.6%	3.2%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	312	78
Sean Mooney R 2026 · 4.82 FIP	24	SP-	4.82	24.7%	13.5%	3.8%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	102	78
Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	18.1%	8.1%	3.2%	.312	4.78	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.43	4.25	412	77
Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	24	SP	4.45	20.9%	16.4%	1.9%	.329	5.26	18.8%	5.1%	59	+0.81	4.45	194	77
James McArthur R 2026 · 3.53 FIP	24	SP-	3.53	19.7%	7.9%	2.0%	.310	4.16	22.1%	13.7%	194	+0.63	3.53	352	77
Yoel Tejeda Jr. R 2025 · 3.66 FIP	23	SP	3.66	21.5%	12.3%	1.5%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	158	77
Sam Benschoter R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP-	3.96	26.3%	9.2%	3.5%	.344	5.03	18.9%	8.4%	306	+1.07	3.58	426	76
J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP	24	SP-	5.38	17.9%	13.9%	3.7%	.285	4.39	26.3%	15.2%	225	-0.99	4.11	563	76
Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.59 FIP	24	SP	3.59	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.20	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.39	2.15	702	76
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	20.2%	8.6%	3.9%	.261	4.28	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.36	3.41	368	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8	64	22.8%	11.5%	1.06	4.49
Miguel Castro ('23)	7	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Joe Kelly ('24)	9	56	24.6%	10.3%	0.81	4.40
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	7	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Hansel Robles ('22)	7	59	25.3%	10.1%	1.16	3.86