Alex Ayala Jr. prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Alex Ayala Jr. P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 24 LHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A peak 0.4 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 49 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113121vR 129

ERA5.06

FIP5.06

K%20.5%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%7.4%

ROS IP50

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	4	0	6	22	10	3	0	0%	1.4	45.5%	13.6%	31.8%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	4	0	6	22	10	3	0	0%	1.4	45.5%	13.6%	31.8%	0.0%	0.00	1.16	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	6	57	236	68	24	4	38%	3.6	20.7%	12.3%	8.4%	2.3%	3.63	4.20	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	6	57	236	68	24	4	38%	3.6	28.8%	10.2%	18.6%	1.7%	3.63	2.89	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	17	74	325	59	46	11	74%	3.2	13.6%	16.7%	-3.1%	3.5%	5.01	5.99	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	17	74	325	59	46	11	74%	3.2	13.6%	16.7%	-3.1%	3.5%	5.01	5.99	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	17	74	325	59	46	11	74%	3.2	18.2%	14.2%	4.0%	3.4%	5.01	5.31	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.5%	13.1%	7.4%	3.0%	5.06	5.06	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TB	8	8	50	212	45	25	6	100%	6.3	21.2%	11.8%	9.4%	3.0%	4.89	4.83	+0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	8	8	50	212	46	25	6	100%	6.3	21.6%	11.6%	10.0%	3.0%	4.80	4.77	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	8	8	49	208	45	24	6	100%	6.2	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	3.0%	4.78	4.79	+0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	TB	4	4	21	89	19	10	3	100%	5.2	21.2%	11.8%	9.4%	3.0%	4.89	4.83	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	33	139	30	16	4	100%	5.5	21.6%	11.6%	10.0%	3.0%	4.80	4.77	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	38	160	35	19	5	100%	6.3	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	3.0%	4.78	4.79	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	15	93	391	84	46	12	100%	6.2	21.5%	11.6%	9.9%	3.0%	4.81	4.41	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	181	99	26	100%	6.0	21.5%	11.6%	9.9%	3.0%	4.81	4.41	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		43	23	136	583	103	86	17	53%	3.2	17.7%	14.8%	2.8%	2.9%	4.22	5.07	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	34	200	855	151	127	25	53%	3.2	17.7%	14.8%	2.8%	2.9%	4.22	5.07	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Ayala Jr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.06	20.5%	13.1%	3.0%	—	4.80	21.5%	9.8%	150	-0.26	—	—	—
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	85
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	83
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	83
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	81
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	81
Mac Lardner L 2022 · 5.08 FIP	24	SW	5.08	17.4%	9.4%	4.1%	.318	3.66	17.5%	8.1%	62	-1.42	3.66	186	80
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	79
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.79	17.1%	7.8%	206	-0.85	2.95	250	78
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	76
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	76
Larson Kindreich L 2023 · 5.29 FIP	24	SW	5.29	21.5%	18.8%	3.0%	.269	4.68	23.0%	9.0%	79	-0.61	4.16	214	76
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	76
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	75
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	75
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	75
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	75
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.81	21.6%	10.9%	156	-0.21	2.44	171	74
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.17	22.0%	15.8%	179	+0.24	2.24	312	74
Jose Alvarez L 2013 · 5.02 FIP	24	SW	5.02	18.0%	8.7%	4.2%	.294	2.98	20.4%	14.8%	124	-2.04	2.78	414	74
Matt Walker L 2022 · 4.54 FIP	24	SW	4.54	17.7%	12.8%	2.4%	.338	4.73	12.7%	2.7%	41	+0.19	4.21	156	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	50	21.2%	12.0%	1.17	4.88
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68