Logan Mercado — OGILVIE

Logan Mercado P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 215 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.21

FIP5.21

K%20.2%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%5.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD4545

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	6	53	227	61	28	5	32%	2.8	19.8%	13.6%	6.2%	2.6%	3.74	4.56	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	6	53	227	61	28	5	32%	2.8	19.8%	13.6%	6.2%	2.6%	3.74	4.56	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	6	53	227	61	28	5	32%	2.8	26.9%	12.3%	14.5%	2.2%	3.74	3.61	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	38	3	73	321	82	32	10	8%	1.9	19.9%	10.5%	9.4%	3.6%	5.45	4.73	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	38	3	73	321	82	32	10	8%	1.9	19.9%	10.5%	9.4%	3.6%	5.45	4.73	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	ARI	3	0	6	27	10	2	1	0%	2.1	37.0%	7.4%	29.6%	3.7%	2.84	2.94	—
2026	24	AA RAW	ARI	29	1	52	224	63	20	7	3%	1.8	28.1%	8.9%	19.2%	3.1%	4.67	3.57	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	ARI	6	2	14	70	9	10	2	33%	2.4	12.9%	14.3%	-1.4%	2.9%	9.42	5.39	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	ARI	5	0	6	24	5	3	1	0%	1.1	20.2%	14.3%	5.9%	3.0%	5.21	5.21	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	78	345	87	35	11	—	—	25.2%	10.3%	14.9%	3.1%	5.43	4.77	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ARI	69	0	72	304	64	39	9	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.9%	8.0%	2.9%	5.03	4.96	-0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	69	0	72	304	65	38	9	0%	1.0	21.3%	12.6%	8.7%	2.9%	4.93	4.89	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	68	0	71	300	64	37	9	0%	1.0	21.4%	12.5%	8.9%	3.0%	4.90	4.90	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	ARI	66	0	69	291	62	36	9	0%	1.0	21.3%	12.5%	8.8%	3.1%	4.94	4.97	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	ARI	63	0	66	278	59	35	9	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.8%	8.3%	3.3%	5.04	5.10	-0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	ARI	59	0	62	261	54	34	9	0%	1.0	20.7%	13.1%	7.6%	3.5%	5.18	5.28	-0.5
2027	25	MLB CTX	ARI	30	0	32	135	28	17	4	0%	1.1	20.9%	12.9%	8.0%	2.9%	5.03	4.96	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	46	0	48	203	43	25	6	0%	1.0	21.3%	12.6%	8.7%	2.9%	4.93	4.89	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	52	0	55	232	50	29	7	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.5%	8.9%	3.0%	4.90	4.90	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	ARI	55	0	58	245	52	31	8	0%	1.1	21.3%	12.5%	8.8%	3.1%	4.94	4.97	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	ARI	55	0	58	245	52	31	8	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.8%	8.3%	3.3%	5.04	5.10	-0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	ARI	53	0	56	236	49	31	8	0%	1.1	20.7%	13.1%	7.6%	3.5%	5.18	5.28	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		292	0	306	1294	273	164	41	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.7%	8.4%	3.1%	5.00	4.65	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	107	27	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.7%	8.4%	3.1%	5.00	4.65	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		57	9	126	548	109	65	17	16%	2.2	19.9%	11.8%	8.1%	3.2%	4.73	4.66	-2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	14	200	872	173	103	28	16%	2.2	19.9%	11.8%	8.1%	3.2%	4.73	4.66	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Logan Mercado (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	20.2%	14.3%	3.0%	—	4.92	21.2%	8.6%	215	-0.29	—	—	—
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	89
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	87
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	84
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	84
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	84
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	84
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	84
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	84
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	83
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	83
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	83
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	83
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	83
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	83
John Matthews R 2022 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	16.5%	13.0%	2.1%	.264	5.00	14.5%	-0.5%	70	+0.49	4.51	213	83
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	83
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	83
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	83
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	83
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	68	21.0%	12.9%	1.19	5.03
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04