Brice Matthews

LF Houston Astros

Age 25 R/R 5'10" / 190 lbs MLB HR -6% Svc 0.174 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

MLB40-MANFG #193Pre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	22	AAHOU	181	.252/.376/.497	9	16	95	—	.204/.309/.395
2025	23	MLBHOU	47	.167/.222/.452	4	1	79	0.2
2026	24	MLBHOU	233	.201/.257/.332	7	4	63	-1.0
2027PROJ	25	MLBHOU	312	.211/.281/.377	11	13	84	-0.1
2028PROJ92% MLB	26	MLBHOU	348	.211/.281/.377	13	14	84	-0.1
2029PROJ92% MLB	27	MLBHOU	362	.210/.280/.375	13	15	83	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.174First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$0.2M2031Arb-2$0.4M2032Arb-3$0.6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025-2026

Whiff%90

Chase%90

Speed79

Barrel%71

Bat Spd55

Avg EV23

CompsAaron Palensky (age 25) · Joey Wiemer (age 25) · Jonny DeLuca (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8684vR 76

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .281 / .377

PA312

HR11

SB13

K%30

BB%8

BABIP267

ISO163

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 33 / POW 56

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT33

Whiff%

903.8%

xAVG

100.190

POWER56

Barrel%

7111.3

Avg EV

2387.0

Bat Spd

5571.9

EYE57

Chase%

906.0%

SPEED60

Sprint

7928.6

DEFENSE52

scouting grade only

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 82 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

101

▶▶R

wOBA

248

317

▶▶R

ISO

210

258

▶▶R

BABIP

250

229

◀L

50.0%

37.1%

▶▶R

BB%

5.0%

8.1%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.174 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.8M		$-2M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	150	120	26	6	0	4	24	40	6	16	3	217	373	367	740	150	289	27	16	344	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	48	42	6	2	0	0	3	19	3	3	0	143	250	190	440	48	261	40	6	218	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	181	151	38	8	1	9	24	61	6	16	4	252	376	497	872	245	358	34	13	386	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	97	81	26	3	0	6	14	26	1	10	3	321	427	580	1.007	259	400	27	14	435	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	ROK	FCL Astros	—	18	13	6	2	0	0	5	2	0	3	2	462	611	615	1.226	154	545	11	28	538	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	INTL	Senadores de San Juan	—	85	75	15	2	0	4	10	30	0	3	3	200	294	387	681	187	268	35	12	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB	Houston Astros	—	47	42	7	0	0	4	2	20	1	1	0	167	222	452	675	286	167	43	4	280	79	-1	+0	+0	+2	+1	0.2
2025	23	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	498	419	109	18	7	17	70	139	6	41	11	260	374	458	832	198	346	28	14	369	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB	Houston Astros	—	233	214	43	5	1	7	16	74	0	4	4	201	257	332	588	131	269	32	7	261	63	-10	-1	-1	-3	+5	-1.0
2026	24	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	29	24	1	0	0	0	3	12	0	1	0	42	148	42	190		71	41	10	103	-54	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	280	256	50	5	1	11	18	94	1	5	4	195	251	352	602	156	257	34	6	265	65	-12	-1	-1	-1	+6	-0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	150	127	23	5	0	3	17	54	6	16	3	181	307	291	598	110	271	36	11	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	48	43	5	2	0	0	2	23	3	3	0	116	208	163	371	47	244	48	4	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	181	157	32	7	1	7	18	74	6	16	4	204	309	395	704	191	331	41	10	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	97	86	22	2	0	5	9	34	1	10	3	256	333	453	787	198	344	35	9	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	18	15	6	2	0	0	3	3	0	3	2	400	500	533	1.033	133	423	17	17	396	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	47	42	7	0	0	4	2	20	1	1	0	167	222	452	675	286	167	43	4	285	79	-1	+0	+0	+2	+1	0.2
2025	23	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	498	441	101	17	8	13	48	168	6	41	11	229	313	392	705	163	329	34	10	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	233	214	43	5	1	7	16	74	0	4	4	201	257	332	588	131	269	32	7	261	63	-10	-1	-1	-3	+5	-1.0
2026	24	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	29	25	1	0	0	0	2	14	0	1	0	40	111	40	151		70	48	7	88	-54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	150	127	23	5	0	3	17	54	6	16	3	181	307	291	598	110	286	36	11	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	150	120	26	6	0	4	24	40	6	16	3	217	373	367	740	150	289	27	16	344	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	5 teams	—	429	378	80	15	1	15	40	167	10	35	12	212	304	376	679	164	330	39	9	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA RAW	5 teams	—	429	362	91	17	1	19	56	138	10	35	12	251	367	461	828	210	350	32	13	369	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	545	483	108	17	8	17	50	188	7	42	11	224	306	398	703	174	324	34	9	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	545	461	116	18	7	21	72	159	7	42	11	252	361	458	819	206	335	29	13	361	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	262	239	44	5	1	7	18	88	0	5	4	184	241	301	543	117	252	34	7	242	50	-16	-1	-1	-3	+6	-1.4
2026	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	262	238	44	5	1	7	19	86	0	5	4	185	245	303	548	118	250	33	7	244	50	-16	-1	-1	-3	+6	-1.4
2023	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	150	126	23	5	0	3	17	54	6	16	3	183	307	294	600	111	271	36	11	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	5 teams	—	429	376	80	15	1	15	40	167	10	35	12	213	304	378	681	165	327	39	9	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	545	483	108	17	8	17	50	188	7	42	11	224	306	398	703	174	315	34	9	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	262	242	44	5	1	7	18	88	0	5	4	182	241	298	539	116	247	34	7	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	AA MLE	5 teams	—	429	376	80	15	1	15	40	167	10	35	12	213	304	378	681	165	327	39	9	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	545	483	108	17	8	17	50	188	7	42	11	224	306	398	703	174	315	34	9	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	262	242	44	5	1	7	18	88	0	5	4	182	241	298	539	116	247	34	7	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	HOU	100%	312	282	59	8	2	12	25	93	2	13	3	210	280	377	657	168	264	30	8	292	84	-6	+1	+1	-3	+7	0.8
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	HOU	100%	312	282	59	9	2	11	25	93	2	13	3	211	281	377	658	166	267	30	8	293	84	-6	+1	+1	-3	+7	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	92%	378	342	71	10	2	14	30	113	3	16	3	210	280	378	658	168	263	30	8	292	84	-7	+2	+1	-4	+8	-0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	HOU	92%	393	355	75	11	2	15	32	118	3	16	3	209	279	375	654	166	263	30	8	291	83	-8	+2	+1	-4	+9	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	HOU	92%	401	363	76	11	2	15	32	121	3	14	3	207	277	371	648	164	262	30	8	288	81	-9	+2	+0	-4	+9	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	HOU	92%	397	359	73	10	2	14	32	121	3	12	3	205	275	365	639	160	261	30	8	285	79	-10	+1	-1	-4	+9	-0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	HOU	92%	394	357	72	10	2	14	31	121	3	10	2	202	271	357	629	155	259	31	8	280	76	-11	+1	-1	-4	+9	-0.7
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	92%	348	314	67	10	2	13	28	104	3	14	3	211	281	377	659	166	267	30	8	293	84	-7	+2	+1	-4	+8	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	HOU	92%	362	327	68	10	2	13	29	109	3	15	3	210	280	375	655	165	266	30	8	291	83	-7	+2	+1	-4	+8	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	HOU	92%	369	333	69	10	2	13	30	111	3	13	3	208	279	371	649	162	265	30	8	289	81	-8	+1	+0	-4	+8	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	HOU	92%	365	330	68	10	2	13	29	111	3	11	3	206	276	365	641	159	264	30	8	285	79	-9	+1	-1	-4	+8	-0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	HOU	92%	362	328	67	10	2	12	29	112	2	9	2	203	272	357	630	154	262	31	8	281	76	-10	+1	-1	-4	+8	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2086	1888	389	55	11	75	163	641	15	67	18	206	274	366	640	160	265	31	8	285	81	-53	+6	-1	-20	+45	-2.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	120	17	3	23	51	200	5	21	6	204	273	361	634	156	264	31	8	285	81	-17	+2	-0	-6	+14	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3661	3285	681	102	22	126	307	1184	40	179	47	207	283	367	650	160	278	32	8	288	81	-63	+9	-1	-25	+55	-2.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	121	18	4	22	55	210	7	32	8	208	284	365	649	158	280	32	8	288	81	-16	+2	-0	-6	+14	-0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.5	2,351	85	80	207	273	368	+14	-3	3.5	3.5
/162	664	24	23	+3.8	-0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#2Larry Stahl'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,889 PA	2.8	1,889	36	22	235*	297*	387*	-16	+11	2.4	2.9
/162	664	13	8	-5.5	+3.9	0.8	pk7: 4
#3Jake Powell'30-'45 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,767 PA	4.2	2,767	22	65	248*	294*	373*	-14	-2	0.2	2.0
/162	664	5	16	-3.3	-0.5	0.0	pk7: 4
#4John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brice Matthews (OGILVIE)	25	32→33	53→56	60	57	208/278/374	166	264	12	13	30%	8%	84	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Aaron Palensky 2024 · AAA	25	37→32	54→50	54→55	44	201/287/382	182	269	21	18	33%	8%	88	+0.5	204/286/326	122	277	12	19	29%	9%	75	-0.5	169/264/227	58	238	2	28	27%	10%	44	-1.0
✕Joey Wiemer 2024 · MLB	25	42→44	51→55	53→55	44	216/285/378	162	283	19	19	30%	8%	86	+0.3	200/275/316	116	285	12	15	32%	8%	69	-0.9	188/266/285	98	276	10	14	33%	8%	56	-1.2
✕Jonny DeLuca 2023 · AA	25	39→37	56→60	56→55	46	216/279/412	196	240	25	15	23%	7%	92	+0.7	229/292/388	159	267	18	19	21%	7%	91	+0.7	230/295/377	147	270	15	23	20%	7%	88	+0.2
✕Kevin Smith 2022 · MLB	26	40→45	52→55	53→50	41	212/272/383	171	282	20	17	32%	7%	83	+0.1	213/260/353	140	300	17	15	33%	5%	71	-0.8	203/246/328	125	292	16	15	35%	5%	58	-1.1
✕Justin Maxwell 2009 · MLB	25	41→45	54→60	55→60	45	220/288/396	176	278	22	23	29%	8%	92	+0.7	219/298/369	150	319	17	29	34%	9%	89	+0.5	222/296/434	212	299	27	17	34%	9%	103	+0.7
✕Stone Garrett 2023 · MLB	27	41→39	56→55	53→50	36	222/260/407	185	280	24	17	31%	4%	84	+0.1	222/284/362	140	318	16	10	33%	7%	82	-0.0	224/300/339	115	334	11	5	34%	9%	82	+0.0
✕Nelson Velázquez 2024 · MLB	25	38→39	58→60	49→50	40	214/275/413	200	286	28	13	35%	7%	91	+0.7	207/275/376	169	264	23	10	30%	8%	82	+0.0	190/263/344	153	238	21	9	29%	8%	70	-0.5
✕Drew Robinson 2017 · AAA	25	39→43	51→55	52→50	45	204/280/371	167	286	19	14	34%	9%	83	+0.1	217/293/379	162	329	18	12	36%	10%	89	+0.5	211/292/367	157	326	17	12	38%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Austin Wells 2024 · MLB	25	41→44	52→55	53→50	46	216/288/382	166	271	20	11	28%	8%	88	+0.5	215/292/383	168	259	21	6	25%	9%	91	+0.6	205/292/372	167	241	22	5	25%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Anthony Volpe 2024 · MLB	23	42→50	52→55	58→55	48	218/296/393	175	269	19	27	26%	9%	94	+0.9	225/286/370	145	282	14	22	25%	7%	84	+0.2	226/286/365	138	282	13	24	24%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Peyton Burdick 2023 · MLB	26	37→34	50	51→50	45	191/282/348	157	275	18	12	35%	10%	79	-0.2	183/265/327	144	301	17	12	42%	8%	68	-1.0	158/244/297	139	268	18	12	45%	8%	51	-1.4
✕Michael Helman 2023 · AAA	27	41→42	49→50	58→55	46	213/273/359	146	256	18	26	25%	7%	78	-0.3	218/276/366	148	265	17	22	24%	6%	80	-0.2	210/266/364	154	249	17	20	23%	5%	73	-0.3
✕Alexander Canario 2024 · MLB	24	41→36	55→60	52→50	40	215/276/403	188	297	24	13	35%	7%	89	+0.5	220/284/380	160	317	20	10	35%	8%	86	+0.3	208/276/362	155	297	21	9	36%	8%	78	-0.1
✕Jake Slaughter 2024 · AAA	27	42→48	50	52→55	41	216/288/371	154	291	19	22	32%	7%	86	+0.3	227/291/355	128	317	14	19	31%	7%	83	+0.1	229/290/335	106	327	11	21	31%	6%	74	-0.5
✕Ryan Cordell 2017 · AA	25	44→42	49→50	53→50	40	228/273/380	152	285	17	14	27%	5%	82	-0.0	211/260/345	134	280	14	13	29%	5%	69	-0.9	199/252/325	126	269	13	13	30%	6%	60	-0.7
✕Andrew Navigato 2023 · AA	25	42→41	48→55	49→50	43	216/280/356	141	266	16	14	26%	6%	80	-0.2	218/276/377	159	279	17	15	28%	6%	83	+0.1	207/267/370	164	270	18	17	30%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Andrés Alvarez 2023 · AA	26	39→32	49→45	56→50	45	202/280/345	143	284	17	20	34%	9%	77	-0.3	202/266/314	112	287	11	12	32%	7%	64	-1.3	193/253/289	96	272	9	8	31%	6%	51	-1.3
✕Blake Tekotte 2012 · MLB	25	44→47	50	53→55	46	227/295/384	157	287	17	24	27%	8%	91	+0.7	203/259/333	130	279	12	16	31%	6%	66	-1.1	194/258/314	120	261	9	10	28%	6%	59	-0.8
✕Brooks Conrad 2006 · AAA	26	42→43	51→55	54→50	46	220/287/380	160	273	18	16	26%	8%	87	+0.4	198/256/367	169	255	18	12	30%	7%	73	-0.6	221/291/435	214	282	28	7	32%	9%	103	+0.5
✕Jose Morban 2005 · MLB	25	43→46	49→45	58→50	45	221/281/363	142	270	17	23	25%	7%	81	-0.1	222/277/350	128	324	13	16	33%	7%	76	-0.4	214/266/333	120	317	12	17	35%	6%	65	-0.6

Brice Matthews

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps