Daniel Vazquez
SS Northwest Arkansas Naturals| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A/INTL2 orgs | 380 | .259/.360/.299 | 0 | 14 | 51 | — | .196/.271/.223 |
| 2025 | 21 | AA/A+/ROK/INTL3 orgs | 607 | .270/.356/.369 | 4 | 38 | 74 | — | .218/.276/.290 |
| 2026 | 22 | AANorthwest Ark… | 507 | .246/.315/.328 | 4 | 18 | 56 | — | .223/.275/.290 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBKC | 4 | .200/.257/.263 | 0 | 0 | 48 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 24 | MLBKC | 109 | .206/.264/.284 | 1 | 2 | 57 | -0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ35% MLB | 25 | MLBKC | 179 | .210/.269/.300 | 2 | 3 | 63 | -0.1 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Royals Blue | — | 118 | 102 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 31 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 186 | 284 | 265 | 549 | 78 | 250 | 26 | 12 | 254 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 327 | 293 | 57 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 86 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 195 | 265 | 229 | 493 | 34 | 270 | 26 | 9 | 229 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 471 | 400 | 89 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 62 | 107 | 3 | 32 | 10 | 223 | 331 | 287 | 619 | 65 | 295 | 23 | 13 | 289 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 325 | 277 | 70 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 72 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 253 | 355 | 289 | 644 | 36 | 338 | 22 | 13 | 301 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 55 | 47 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 298 | 389 | 362 | 751 | 64 | 400 | 24 | 13 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 21 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 190 | 190 | 190 | 381 | 267 | 29 | 0 | 172 | -17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 463 | 404 | 105 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 48 | 93 | 1 | 26 | 7 | 260 | 339 | 349 | 688 | 89 | 329 | 20 | 10 | 308 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | ACL Royals | — | 25 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 318 | 400 | 545 | 945 | 227 | 429 | 28 | 12 | 414 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 98 | 79 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 20 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 329 | 459 | 468 | 928 | 139 | 421 | 20 | 19 | 419 | 169 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 507 | 451 | 111 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 44 | 131 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 246 | 315 | 328 | 643 | 82 | 336 | 26 | 9 | 290 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Royals Blue | — | 118 | 106 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 39 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 113 | 190 | 151 | 341 | 38 | 152 | 33 | 8 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 327 | 302 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 125 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 156 | 206 | 182 | 388 | 26 | 252 | 38 | 6 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 471 | 418 | 75 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 44 | 153 | 3 | 32 | 10 | 179 | 262 | 225 | 487 | 45 | 270 | 32 | 9 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 325 | 291 | 57 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 102 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 196 | 271 | 223 | 494 | 27 | 290 | 31 | 9 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 21 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 143 | 143 | 143 | 286 | 247 | 33 | 0 | 143 | -17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 463 | 419 | 93 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 34 | 117 | 1 | 26 | 7 | 222 | 282 | 291 | 573 | 69 | 291 | 25 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 25 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 280 | 391 | 671 | 174 | 323 | 40 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 507 | 466 | 104 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 160 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 223 | 275 | 290 | 564 | 67 | 325 | 32 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Royals Blue | — | 118 | 106 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 39 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 113 | 190 | 151 | 341 | 38 | 174 | 33 | 8 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Royals Blue | — | 118 | 102 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 31 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 186 | 284 | 265 | 549 | 78 | 250 | 26 | 12 | 254 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 327 | 302 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 125 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 156 | 206 | 182 | 388 | 26 | 260 | 38 | 6 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | A RAW | Columbia Fireflies | — | 327 | 293 | 57 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 86 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 195 | 265 | 229 | 493 | 34 | 270 | 26 | 9 | 229 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 471 | 418 | 75 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 44 | 153 | 3 | 32 | 10 | 179 | 262 | 225 | 487 | 45 | 275 | 32 | 9 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A RAW | Columbia Fireflies | — | 471 | 400 | 89 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 62 | 107 | 3 | 32 | 10 | 223 | 331 | 287 | 619 | 65 | 295 | 23 | 13 | 289 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 380 | 340 | 66 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 119 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 194 | 269 | 221 | 490 | 26 | 295 | 31 | 9 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 380 | 324 | 84 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 85 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 259 | 360 | 299 | 659 | 40 | 347 | 22 | 13 | 307 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 607 | 554 | 120 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 43 | 160 | 1 | 38 | 10 | 217 | 274 | 287 | 561 | 70 | 296 | 26 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ RAW | 4 teams | — | 607 | 526 | 142 | 30 | 5 | 4 | 70 | 126 | 1 | 38 | 10 | 270 | 356 | 369 | 725 | 99 | 343 | 21 | 12 | 326 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 507 | 466 | 104 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 160 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 223 | 275 | 290 | 564 | 67 | 331 | 32 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA RAW | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 507 | 451 | 111 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 44 | 131 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 246 | 315 | 328 | 643 | 82 | 336 | 26 | 9 | 290 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Royals Blue | — | 118 | 107 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 39 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 112 | 190 | 150 | 339 | 37 | 152 | 33 | 8 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 327 | 305 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 125 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 154 | 206 | 180 | 386 | 26 | 252 | 38 | 6 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 471 | 421 | 75 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 44 | 153 | 3 | 32 | 10 | 178 | 262 | 223 | 486 | 45 | 270 | 32 | 9 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 380 | 342 | 66 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 119 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 193 | 269 | 219 | 489 | 26 | 290 | 31 | 9 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 607 | 558 | 120 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 43 | 160 | 1 | 38 | 10 | 215 | 274 | 285 | 559 | 70 | 291 | 26 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 507 | 469 | 104 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 160 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 222 | 275 | 288 | 562 | 66 | 325 | 32 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 380 | 342 | 66 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 119 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 193 | 269 | 219 | 489 | 26 | 290 | 31 | 9 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 607 | 558 | 120 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 43 | 160 | 1 | 38 | 10 | 215 | 274 | 285 | 559 | 70 | 291 | 26 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 507 | 469 | 104 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 160 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 222 | 275 | 288 | 562 | 66 | 325 | 32 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | KC | 2% | 607 | 559 | 113 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 41 | 180 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 201 | 258 | 265 | 523 | 64 | 287 | 30 | 7 | 240 | 48 | -37 | +1 | +3 | +7 | +13 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | KC | 2% | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 257 | 263 | 520 | 63 | 285 | 25 | 0 | 238 | 48 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | KC | 23% | 474 | 436 | 91 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 138 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 207 | 265 | 288 | 554 | 81 | 288 | 29 | 7 | 252 | 57 | -25 | +1 | +2 | +5 | +10 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | KC | 35% | 510 | 467 | 99 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 146 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 212 | 271 | 305 | 576 | 93 | 289 | 29 | 7 | 261 | 63 | -23 | +1 | +3 | +5 | +11 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | KC | 42% | 531 | 486 | 104 | 20 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 150 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 215 | 275 | 316 | 591 | 101 | 289 | 28 | 7 | 267 | 67 | -21 | +0 | +3 | +6 | +12 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | KC | 45% | 539 | 492 | 107 | 21 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 152 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 215 | 276 | 318 | 594 | 103 | 289 | 28 | 7 | 268 | 68 | -21 | +0 | +3 | +6 | +12 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | KC | 47% | 538 | 491 | 107 | 21 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 151 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 215 | 276 | 318 | 595 | 103 | 289 | 28 | 7 | 269 | 68 | -21 | +0 | +2 | +6 | +12 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | KC | 23% | 109 | 101 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 206 | 264 | 284 | 548 | 79 | 287 | 29 | 6 | 249 | 57 | -6 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +2 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | KC | 35% | 179 | 163 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 51 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 210 | 269 | 300 | 569 | 90 | 287 | 28 | 7 | 258 | 63 | -8 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | KC | 42% | 224 | 205 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 63 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 212 | 273 | 310 | 583 | 98 | 287 | 28 | 7 | 264 | 67 | -9 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | KC | 45% | 242 | 222 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 68 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 213 | 274 | 312 | 586 | 99 | 287 | 28 | 7 | 265 | 68 | -9 | +0 | +1 | +3 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | KC | 47% | 250 | 229 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 70 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 213 | 274 | 312 | 587 | 99 | 286 | 28 | 7 | 265 | 68 | -10 | +0 | +1 | +3 | +5 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1004 | 920 | 195 | 39 | 4 | 14 | 71 | 284 | 4 | 17 | 5 | 212 | 271 | 309 | 580 | 97 | 289 | 28 | 7 | 262 | 53 | -41 | +1 | +5 | +11 | +22 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 596 | 126 | 25 | 3 | 9 | 46 | 184 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 211 | 272 | 309 | 580 | 97 | 288 | 28 | 7 | 262 | 53 | -27 | +1 | +3 | +7 | +14 | -0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5212 | 4751 | 971 | 182 | 18 | 46 | 380 | 1555 | 20 | 160 | 49 | 204 | 266 | 279 | 545 | 75 | 291 | 30 | 7 | 246 | 53 | -122 | +3 | +13 | +30 | +61 | -1.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 121 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 47 | 194 | 2 | 20 | 6 | 204 | 264 | 280 | 544 | 76 | 290 | 30 | 7 | 246 | 53 | -28 | +1 | +3 | +7 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 507 PAwOBA .283 → .251 (−32)K% 25.8% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.84% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 6.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.39% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.045 | ×1.027 | 25.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.045 | ×1.027 | 7.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.045 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.03% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.
Result: wOBA .283 → .251; ISO .082 → .070; BABIP .336 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 463 PAwOBA .304 → .255 (−48)K% 20.1% → 25.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.09% | ÷1.007 | ×1.270 | — | — | 25.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.15% | ÷0.981 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 7.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.22% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.44% | ÷1.027 | ×0.920 | ×1.012 | ×1.012 | 22.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.40% | ÷1.055 | ×0.810 | ×1.012 | ×1.012 | 5.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.61% | ÷1.012 | ×0.850 | ×1.012 | ×1.012 | 1.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.32% | ÷0.983 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.26% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 105, 2B 111, 3B 102, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .304 → .255; ISO .089 → .072; BABIP .329 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Royals · 25 PAwOBA .403 → .264 (−139)K% 28.0% → 41.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.00% | ÷0.985 | ×1.440 | — | — | 40.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.00% | ÷0.971 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 7.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.019 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 20.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷0.975 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 9.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.070 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.939 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 5.40% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 114, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .403 → .264; ISO .227 → .151; BABIP .429 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 21 PAwOBA .168 → .143 (−24)K% 28.6% → 34.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.059 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.034 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 24.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.077 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 104, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .168 → .143; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .267 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AColumbia Fireflies · 325 PAwOBA .296 → .228 (−68)K% 22.2% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.15% | ÷0.964 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.23% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.31% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.27% | ÷1.037 | ×0.920 | ×0.953 | ×1.015 | 25.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.88% | ÷0.935 | ×0.830 | ×0.953 | ×1.015 | 4.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.008 | ×0.910 | ×0.953 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.020 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 107, 2B 87, 3B 102, K 93, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .296 → .228; ISO .036 → .029; BABIP .338 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AColumbia Fireflies · 471 PAwOBA .282 → .226 (−56)K% 22.7% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.72% | ÷0.952 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.95% | ÷0.976 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 9.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.64% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.89% | ÷0.970 | ×0.920 | ×0.969 | ×1.030 | 22.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.12% | ÷1.023 | ×0.830 | ×0.969 | ×1.030 | 4.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.34% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.969 | ×1.030 | 0.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.02% | ÷1.089 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.78% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 94, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 90, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .282 → .226; ISO .065 → .048; BABIP .295 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AColumbia Fireflies · 327 PAwOBA .226 → .178 (−48)K% 26.3% → 38.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.30% | ÷0.937 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.56% | ÷1.069 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 5.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.71% | ÷1.054 | ×0.920 | ×1.032 | ×1.045 | 21.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.83% | ÷0.985 | ×0.830 | ×1.032 | ×1.045 | 4.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.032 | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.140 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 111, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 87, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .226 → .178; ISO .034 → .027; BABIP .270 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Royals Blue · 118 PAwOBA .252 → .158 (−94)K% 26.3% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.27% | ÷0.978 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.86% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 8.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.72% | ÷1.045 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 12.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.23% | ÷0.972 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 2.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 0.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.41% | ÷1.003 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.67% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 109, 2B 94, 3B 100, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .252 → .158; ISO .078 → .042; BABIP .250 → .152. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .