Keyber Rodriguez
SS Round Rock Express| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 558 | .261/.321/.412 | 13 | 10 | 79 | — | .202/.243/.309 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 687 | .247/.320/.314 | 2 | 17 | 57 | — | .221/.265/.279 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 578 | .266/.332/.467 | 23 | 16 | 78 | — | .223/.271/.368 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 26 | MLBTEX | 16 | .218/.263/.329 | 0 | 0 | 64 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 27 | MLBTEX | 70 | .218/.265/.331 | 1 | 1 | 65 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rangers 2 | — | 225 | 193 | 49 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 24 | 36 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 254 | 341 | 363 | 704 | 109 | 302 | 16 | 11 | 312 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Rangers | — | 166 | 149 | 39 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 39 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 262 | 329 | 470 | 799 | 208 | 311 | 23 | 8 | 347 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 422 | 369 | 100 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 37 | 91 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 271 | 349 | 385 | 733 | 114 | 338 | 22 | 9 | 326 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | INTL | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 21 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 190 | 105 | 296 | 143 | 24 | 10 | 153 | -11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 412 | 368 | 91 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 90 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 247 | 319 | 321 | 640 | 73 | 314 | 22 | 8 | 291 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | INTL | Auckland Tuatara | — | 144 | 136 | 36 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 265 | 291 | 434 | 725 | 169 | 274 | 13 | 3 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 176 | 153 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 30 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 242 | 329 | 379 | 709 | 137 | 279 | 17 | 10 | 315 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 330 | 301 | 79 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 73 | 2 | 20 | 4 | 262 | 317 | 355 | 672 | 93 | 330 | 22 | 7 | 300 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | INTL | Tigres de Aragua | — | 179 | 153 | 39 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 255 | 341 | 379 | 720 | 124 | 287 | 16 | 10 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 387 | 355 | 83 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 75 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 234 | 288 | 369 | 657 | 135 | 272 | 19 | 6 | 291 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | INTL | Tigres de Aragua | — | 171 | 147 | 48 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 327 | 396 | 517 | 913 | 190 | 361 | 15 | 6 | 387 | 148 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 20 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 294 | 400 | 412 | 812 | 118 | 455 | 30 | 10 | 371 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 481 | 434 | 109 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 37 | 91 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 251 | 314 | 316 | 630 | 65 | 308 | 19 | 8 | 285 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | INTL | Tigres de Aragua | — | 186 | 157 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 33 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 229 | 328 | 299 | 627 | 70 | 281 | 18 | 11 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 342 | 304 | 73 | 11 | 3 | 14 | 28 | 74 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 240 | 312 | 434 | 747 | 194 | 267 | 22 | 8 | 325 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 189 | 173 | 55 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 46 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 318 | 362 | 503 | 865 | 185 | 397 | 24 | 6 | 373 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | INTL | Tigres de Aragua | — | 47 | 39 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 348 | 564 | 912 | 333 | 217 | 28 | 13 | 386 | 147 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers 2 | — | 225 | 202 | 32 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 158 | 227 | 218 | 445 | 59 | 190 | 20 | 7 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Rangers | — | 166 | 154 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 56 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 175 | 226 | 312 | 537 | 136 | 233 | 34 | 5 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 422 | 382 | 83 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 122 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 217 | 276 | 304 | 580 | 86 | 290 | 29 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 412 | 381 | 76 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 117 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 199 | 251 | 257 | 508 | 58 | 271 | 28 | 5 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 176 | 158 | 35 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 36 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 222 | 289 | 354 | 643 | 133 | 257 | 20 | 7 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 330 | 311 | 64 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 98 | 2 | 20 | 4 | 206 | 240 | 277 | 517 | 71 | 283 | 30 | 4 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 387 | 362 | 73 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 91 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 202 | 243 | 309 | 553 | 108 | 244 | 24 | 4 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 20 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 278 | 350 | 389 | 739 | 111 | 426 | 35 | 5 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 481 | 448 | 98 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 114 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 219 | 262 | 275 | 536 | 56 | 279 | 24 | 5 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 342 | 312 | 62 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 89 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 199 | 256 | 343 | 599 | 144 | 232 | 26 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 189 | 177 | 47 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 56 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 266 | 297 | 412 | 710 | 147 | 344 | 30 | 4 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers 2 | — | 225 | 202 | 32 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 158 | 227 | 218 | 445 | 59 | 199 | 20 | 7 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Rangers 2 | — | 225 | 193 | 49 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 24 | 36 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 254 | 341 | 363 | 704 | 109 | 302 | 16 | 11 | 312 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Rangers | — | 166 | 154 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 56 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 175 | 226 | 312 | 537 | 136 | 240 | 34 | 5 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Rangers | — | 166 | 149 | 39 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 39 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 262 | 329 | 470 | 799 | 208 | 311 | 23 | 8 | 347 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 443 | 401 | 87 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 128 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 217 | 276 | 302 | 578 | 85 | 300 | 29 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 443 | 388 | 102 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 96 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 263 | 341 | 371 | 712 | 108 | 329 | 22 | 9 | 317 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 556 | 514 | 103 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 158 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 200 | 250 | 257 | 507 | 56 | 278 | 28 | 5 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 556 | 504 | 127 | 17 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 109 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 252 | 312 | 351 | 663 | 99 | 303 | 20 | 7 | 297 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 685 | 631 | 134 | 25 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 182 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 212 | 259 | 301 | 560 | 89 | 282 | 27 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 685 | 607 | 155 | 24 | 4 | 12 | 58 | 131 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 255 | 326 | 367 | 694 | 112 | 306 | 19 | 8 | 308 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 558 | 513 | 106 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 131 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 207 | 255 | 318 | 572 | 111 | 255 | 23 | 4 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 558 | 502 | 131 | 23 | 7 | 13 | 34 | 101 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 261 | 321 | 412 | 733 | 151 | 299 | 18 | 6 | 320 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 687 | 634 | 141 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 166 | 7 | 17 | 8 | 222 | 269 | 278 | 546 | 55 | 292 | 24 | 5 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 687 | 608 | 150 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 59 | 130 | 7 | 17 | 8 | 247 | 320 | 314 | 635 | 67 | 305 | 19 | 9 | 288 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 578 | 532 | 119 | 21 | 5 | 15 | 29 | 158 | 6 | 16 | 5 | 224 | 272 | 367 | 638 | 143 | 282 | 27 | 5 | 275 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 578 | 516 | 137 | 25 | 5 | 23 | 45 | 133 | 6 | 16 | 5 | 266 | 332 | 467 | 799 | 202 | 308 | 23 | 8 | 346 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers 2 | — | 225 | 205 | 32 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 156 | 227 | 215 | 442 | 59 | 190 | 20 | 7 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Rangers | — | 166 | 155 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 56 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 174 | 226 | 310 | 535 | 135 | 233 | 34 | 5 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 443 | 407 | 87 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 128 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 214 | 276 | 297 | 574 | 84 | 290 | 29 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 556 | 517 | 103 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 158 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 199 | 250 | 255 | 505 | 56 | 271 | 28 | 5 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 685 | 640 | 134 | 25 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 182 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 209 | 259 | 297 | 556 | 87 | 274 | 27 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 558 | 520 | 106 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 131 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 204 | 255 | 313 | 568 | 110 | 244 | 23 | 4 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 687 | 642 | 141 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 166 | 7 | 17 | 8 | 220 | 269 | 274 | 543 | 55 | 285 | 24 | 5 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 578 | 538 | 119 | 21 | 5 | 15 | 29 | 158 | 6 | 16 | 5 | 221 | 272 | 362 | 634 | 141 | 272 | 27 | 5 | 275 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 558 | 520 | 106 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 131 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 204 | 255 | 313 | 568 | 110 | 244 | 23 | 4 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 687 | 642 | 141 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 166 | 7 | 17 | 8 | 220 | 269 | 274 | 543 | 55 | 285 | 24 | 5 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 578 | 538 | 119 | 21 | 5 | 15 | 29 | 158 | 6 | 16 | 5 | 221 | 272 | 362 | 634 | 141 | 272 | 27 | 5 | 275 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | TEX | 10% | 380 | 355 | 77 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 96 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 217 | 263 | 326 | 589 | 108 | 276 | 25 | 5 | 263 | 64 | -16 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | TEX | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 263 | 329 | 592 | 111 | 276 | 25 | 6 | 265 | 64 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | TEX | 31% | 225 | 209 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 57 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 218 | 265 | 327 | 592 | 110 | 277 | 25 | 5 | 265 | 65 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | TEX | 31% | 70 | 65 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 218 | 265 | 331 | 596 | 112 | 276 | 26 | 6 | 266 | 65 | -3 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 70 | 65 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 200 | 257 | 277 | 534 | 77 | 261 | 26 | 6 | 266 | 52 | -3 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 604 | 121 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 167 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 200 | 257 | 276 | 533 | 76 | 262 | 26 | 6 | 266 | 52 | -27 | -2 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4278 | 3935 | 826 | 143 | 27 | 54 | 218 | 1119 | 48 | 118 | 39 | 210 | 260 | 301 | 561 | 91 | 275 | 26 | 5 | 246 | 52 | -16 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 125 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 33 | 170 | 7 | 18 | 6 | 209 | 259 | 299 | 558 | 90 | 273 | 26 | 5 | 246 | 52 | -27 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAARound Rock Express · 342 PAwOBA .321 → .259 (−62)K% 21.6% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.64% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.17% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 17.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 3.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 1.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.34% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .321 → .259; ISO .194 → .146; BABIP .267 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 189 PAwOBA .368 → .305 (−63)K% 24.3% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.34% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 3.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.984 | ×0.988 | 24.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.24% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.984 | ×0.988 | 8.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.984 | ×0.988 | 1.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.11% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .368 → .305; ISO .185 → .149; BABIP .397 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 481 PAwOBA .280 → .238 (−42)K% 18.9% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.92% | ÷0.971 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.28% | ÷1.080 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.36% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | ×0.973 | ×0.998 | 23.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.25% | ÷0.968 | ×0.840 | ×0.973 | ×0.998 | 4.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.58% | ÷0.921 | ×0.940 | ×0.973 | ×0.998 | 0.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.58% | ÷0.976 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.48% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 95, 2B 94, 3B 84, K 94, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .280 → .238; ISO .065 → .055; BABIP .308 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAARound Rock Express · 20 PAwOBA .362 → .326 (−36)K% 30.0% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷1.086 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷0.962 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 4.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.053 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 24.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷0.881 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 17.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.921 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.913 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 111, 2B 76, 3B 84, K 117, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .362 → .326; ISO .118 → .114; BABIP .455 → .426. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 387 PAwOBA .286 → .239 (−47)K% 19.4% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.38% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.94% | ÷1.034 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 4.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.29% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.010 | ×1.012 | 17.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.43% | ÷1.012 | ×0.840 | ×1.010 | ×1.012 | 5.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.07% | ÷1.138 | ×0.940 | ×1.010 | ×1.012 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.080 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.14% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 128, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .286 → .239; ISO .135 → .107; BABIP .272 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Hickory Crawdads · 330 PAwOBA .291 → .231 (−60)K% 22.1% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.12% | ÷0.974 | ×1.310 | — | — | 29.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 3.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.61% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.75% | ÷1.040 | ×0.870 | ×1.033 | ×0.998 | 23.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.70% | ÷0.960 | ×0.780 | ×1.033 | ×0.998 | 4.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.033 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.19% | ÷0.948 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 2.03% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 108, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .291 → .231; ISO .093 → .079; BABIP .330 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 176 PAwOBA .311 → .275 (−36)K% 17.0% → 20.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.05% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.23% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 7.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.14% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.51% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | ×0.994 | ×1.027 | 17.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.50% | ÷0.875 | ×0.840 | ×0.994 | ×1.027 | 6.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.63% | ÷1.074 | ×0.940 | ×0.994 | ×1.027 | 1.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.44% | ÷0.974 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.06% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 106, 2B 75, 3B 115, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .311 → .275; ISO .137 → .126; BABIP .279 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Hickory Crawdads · 412 PAwOBA .286 → .226 (−60)K% 21.8% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.84% | ÷1.007 | ×1.310 | — | — | 28.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.25% | ÷0.985 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 5.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.21% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.26% | ÷1.039 | ×0.870 | ×1.022 | ×1.012 | 22.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.68% | ÷0.939 | ×0.780 | ×1.022 | ×1.012 | 4.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.36% | ÷0.984 | ×0.850 | ×1.022 | ×1.012 | 0.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.44% | ÷1.123 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.14% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 108, 2B 88, 3B 97, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .286 → .226; ISO .073 → .059; BABIP .314 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .