Erlin Cerda
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | ACLE | 25 | .182/.250/.227 | 0 | 0 | -6 | — | .130/.167/.174 |
| 2017 | 23 | A/ROK2 orgs | 43 | .244/.279/.390 | 0 | 2 | 28 | — | .169/.209/.265 |
| 2018 | 24 | A+/A2 orgs | 140 | .213/.265/.276 | 0 | 3 | 8 | — | .169/.206/.215 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 19 | ROK | DSL Indians | — | 246 | 198 | 50 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 35 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 253 | 388 | 364 | 752 | 111 | 287 | 10 | 14 | 344 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK | DSL Indians | — | 262 | 214 | 67 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 35 | 36 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 313 | 424 | 435 | 858 | 121 | 368 | 14 | 13 | 378 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | AZL Indians | — | 115 | 103 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 223 | 292 | 291 | 583 | 68 | 267 | 16 | 3 | 266 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | Lake County Captains | — | 25 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 250 | 227 | 477 | 45 | 333 | 40 | 8 | 216 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A | Lake County Captains | — | 26 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 231 | 231 | 385 | 615 | 154 | 316 | 27 | 0 | 265 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | ROK | AZL Indians | — | 17 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 267 | 353 | 400 | 753 | 133 | 364 | 24 | 6 | 342 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 110 | 99 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 222 | 280 | 303 | 583 | 81 | 306 | 25 | 7 | 259 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A | Lake County Captains | — | 30 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 179 | 207 | 179 | 385 | 263 | 30 | 0 | 175 | -18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians | — | 246 | 209 | 33 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 31 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 158 | 273 | 220 | 493 | 62 | 183 | 13 | 10 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians | — | 262 | 225 | 47 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 44 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 209 | 302 | 284 | 586 | 76 | 243 | 17 | 9 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians | — | 115 | 105 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 162 | 221 | 200 | 421 | 38 | 211 | 23 | 2 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 25 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 130 | 167 | 174 | 341 | 43 | 301 | 52 | 4 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 26 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 192 | 308 | 500 | 115 | 292 | 38 | 0 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians | — | 17 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 133 | 235 | 200 | 435 | 67 | 270 | 35 | 6 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 110 | 102 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 176 | 215 | 235 | 450 | 59 | 256 | 34 | 5 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 30 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 143 | 172 | 143 | 315 | 249 | 40 | 0 | 141 | -18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians | — | 246 | 209 | 33 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 31 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 158 | 273 | 220 | 493 | 62 | 184 | 13 | 10 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Indians | — | 246 | 198 | 50 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 35 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 253 | 388 | 364 | 752 | 111 | 287 | 10 | 14 | 344 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians | — | 262 | 225 | 47 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 44 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 209 | 302 | 284 | 586 | 76 | 254 | 17 | 9 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK RAW | DSL Indians | — | 262 | 214 | 67 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 35 | 36 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 313 | 424 | 435 | 858 | 121 | 368 | 14 | 13 | 378 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians | — | 115 | 105 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 162 | 221 | 200 | 421 | 38 | 212 | 23 | 2 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK RAW | AZL Indians | — | 115 | 103 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 223 | 292 | 291 | 583 | 68 | 267 | 16 | 3 | 266 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 25 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 130 | 167 | 174 | 341 | 43 | 300 | 52 | 4 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A RAW | Lake County Captains | — | 25 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 250 | 227 | 477 | 45 | 333 | 40 | 8 | 216 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 43 | 41 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 195 | 233 | 317 | 550 | 122 | 308 | 35 | 2 | 210 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 43 | 41 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 244 | 279 | 390 | 669 | 146 | 333 | 26 | 2 | 296 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 140 | 130 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 49 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 169 | 206 | 215 | 421 | 46 | 272 | 35 | 4 | 179 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 140 | 127 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 36 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 213 | 265 | 276 | 540 | 63 | 297 | 26 | 6 | 241 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians | — | 246 | 211 | 33 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 31 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 156 | 273 | 218 | 491 | 62 | 183 | 13 | 10 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians | — | 262 | 230 | 47 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 44 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 204 | 302 | 278 | 580 | 74 | 243 | 17 | 9 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians | — | 115 | 106 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 160 | 221 | 198 | 419 | 38 | 211 | 23 | 2 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 25 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 167 | 167 | 333 | 42 | 301 | 52 | 4 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 43 | 41 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 195 | 233 | 317 | 550 | 122 | 283 | 35 | 2 | 210 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 140 | 133 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 49 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 165 | 206 | 211 | 416 | 45 | 255 | 35 | 4 | 179 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 831 | 733 | 130 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 57 | 178 | 23 | 43 | 14 | 177 | 258 | 240 | 498 | 63 | 232 | 21 | 7 | 223 | 37 | -62 | +3 | +0 | +3 | +18 | -3.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 573 | 101 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 45 | 139 | 18 | 34 | 11 | 176 | 258 | 237 | 495 | 61 | 230 | 21 | 7 | 223 | 37 | -49 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -3.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 A+Lynchburg Hillcats · 110 PAwOBA .253 → .190 (−63)K% 24.5% → 33.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.55% | ÷1.047 | ×1.420 | — | — | 33.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.27% | ÷1.025 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 4.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.44% | ÷1.044 | ×0.940 | ×0.986 | ×0.988 | 17.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.054 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×0.988 | 8.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×0.986 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.967 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 109, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 110, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .253 → .190; ISO .081 → .059; BABIP .306 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ALake County Captains · 30 PAwOBA .171 → .141 (−29)K% 30.0% → 41.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷0.988 | ×1.360 | — | — | 41.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.993 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.33% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 2.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.32% | ÷0.954 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.980 | 24.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.031 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.928 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.078 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 91, 2B 106, 3B 86, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .171 → .141; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .263 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ALake County Captains · 26 PAwOBA .258 → .204 (−54)K% 26.9% → 36.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.92% | ÷0.993 | ×1.360 | — | — | 36.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.941 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.79% | ÷0.914 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.990 | 15.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.030 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.990 | 8.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.931 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.990 | 5.09% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.129 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 83, 2B 106, 3B 86, K 99, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .258 → .204; ISO .154 → .117; BABIP .316 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKAZL Indians · 17 PAwOBA .333 → .220 (−113)K% 23.5% → 33.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 33.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 3.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.88% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 4.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 14.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 12.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .333 → .220; ISO .133 → .084; BABIP .364 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ALake County Captains · 25 PAwOBA .211 → .160 (−51)K% 40.0% → 52.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.00% | ÷1.033 | ×1.360 | — | — | 52.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.00% | ÷0.986 | ×0.690 | — | — | 5.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.001 | ×0.920 | — | — | 22.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.973 | ×0.830 | — | — | 7.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.981 | ×0.910 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.274 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 100, 2B 95, 3B 96, K 107, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .211 → .160; ISO .045 → .034; BABIP .333 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKAZL Indians · 115 PAwOBA .261 → .193 (−69)K% 15.7% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.65% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 22.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 2.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.22% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 3.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.004 | ×0.985 | 17.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.004 | ×0.985 | 2.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.004 | ×0.985 | 1.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .261 → .193; ISO .068 → .047; BABIP .267 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 DSLDSL Indians · 262 PAwOBA .375 → .260 (−115)K% 13.7% → 16.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.74% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 9.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.29% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 1.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×1.020 | ×0.985 | 18.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.87% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.020 | ×0.985 | 4.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.020 | ×0.985 | 2.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .375 → .260; ISO .121 → .078; BABIP .368 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 DSLDSL Indians · 246 PAwOBA .337 → .230 (−107)K% 10.2% → 12.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.16% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 12.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 9.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.66% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 2.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.989 | ×0.995 | 11.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.989 | ×0.995 | 6.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.989 | ×0.995 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .337 → .230; ISO .111 → .070; BABIP .287 → .183. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).