Richie Martin Jr.

SS Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 32 R/R 5'11" / 190 lbs AAA HR +30%H +12% Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	INTLCriollos de C…	56	.146/.268/.271	1	1	59	—
2025	30	AAATEX	303	.258/.343/.369	3	25	74	—	.229/.303/.332
2026	31	AAACOL	215	.210/.315/.326	5	13	41	—	.172/.254/.245
2027PROJ10% MLB	32	MLBCOL	16	.239/.308/.366	0	1	80	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	33	MLBCOL	40	.233/.301/.350	1	1	74	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2019-2022

Speed84

Barrel%10

xwOBA10

Avg EV10

CompsChase d'Arnaud (age 32) · Wynton Bernard (age 32) · Jonathan Davis (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.239 / .308 / .366

PA16

HR0

K%25

BB%6

BABIP306

ISO67

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2019-2022

CONTACT50

xAVG

100.204

POWER40

Barrel%

102.0

Avg EV

1084.1

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

8428.8

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$2M
Totals		$2M		$0.1M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	21	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	18	15	5	1	1	0	3	2	0	2	1	333	444	533	978	200	385	11	17	428	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+	Stockton Ports	—	382	330	76	14	2	3	36	73	10	12	8	230	324	312	637	82	284	19	9	292	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	325	286	64	11	3	3	24	57	11	12	3	224	308	315	623	91	266	18	7	285	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+	Stockton Ports	—	103	94	25	2	3	1	8	21	1	1	1	266	330	383	713	117	333	20	8	320	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	509	453	136	29	8	6	44	86	6	25	10	300	370	439	809	139	357	17	9	357	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	309	283	59	8	3	6	14	83	6	10	1	208	261	322	582	113	272	27	5	258	58	-16	+2	+1	+3	+7	-0.3
2020	25	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	62	55	13	6	0	2	6	13	1	2	1	236	323	455	777	218	275	21	10	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	105	98	23	2	0	1	4	28	1	0	2	235	272	286	558	51	314	27	4	250	53	-6	-1	-4	+3	+2	-0.5
2021	26	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	112	96	20	4	2	1	14	25	2	5	3	208	321	323	644	115	271	22	12	299	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	19	15	4	1	0	1	2	3	2	2	1	267	421	533	954	267	273	16	11	423	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	33	30	5	0	2	0	3	10	0	3	1	167	242	300	542	133	250	30	9	244	50	-2	+0	+2	+1	+1	0.2
2022	27	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	334	292	73	20	6	2	32	66	9	29	5	250	342	380	722	130	316	20	10	327	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	425	360	78	22	2	3	49	103	12	29	6	217	330	314	644	97	293	24	12	299	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	56	48	7	3	0	1	7	15	1	1	1	146	268	271	539	125	188	27	12	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	303	260	67	6	7	3	23	63	13	25	4	258	343	369	713	112	330	21	8	320	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	215	181	38	6	0	5	24	51	5	13	2	210	315	326	641	116	264	24	11	293	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	447	411	87	10	5	7	21	121	7	13	4	212	262	311	573	100	281	27	5	255	59	-22	+1	-1	+7	+10	-0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	21	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	—	18	16	5	1	1	0	2	3	0	2	1	312	389	500	889	188	345	17	11	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	—	382	342	74	13	2	3	24	94	10	12	8	216	287	292	580	76	276	25	6	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	—	325	292	56	10	3	3	18	74	11	12	3	192	265	277	542	86	236	23	6	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	—	103	97	24	2	3	1	5	28	1	1	1	247	291	361	652	113	317	27	5	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	—	509	467	123	25	7	5	30	108	6	25	10	263	316	379	695	116	325	21	6	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	309	283	58	8	3	5	14	83	6	10	1	205	257	307	565	102	272	27	5	254	58	-16	+2	+1	+3	+7	-0.3
2021	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	105	98	23	2	0	1	4	28	1	0	2	235	272	286	558	51	314	27	4	247	53	-6	-1	-4	+3	+2	-0.5
2021	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	112	101	20	4	2	1	9	31	2	5	3	198	277	307	584	109	259	28	8	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	19	16	4	1	0	1	1	4	2	2	1	250	368	500	868	250	240	21	5	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	33	30	5	0	2	0	3	10	0	3	1	167	242	300	542	133	250	30	9	242	50	-2	+0	+2	+1	+1	0.2
2022	27	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	334	303	68	17	5	1	21	78	9	29	5	224	294	323	618	99	295	23	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	425	374	65	15	2	2	35	126	12	29	6	174	266	241	507	67	249	30	8	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	303	271	62	6	8	2	16	70	13	25	4	229	303	332	635	103	294	23	5	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	215	192	33	5	0	3	16	61	5	13	2	172	254	245	498	73	230	28	7	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	400	358	78	14	2	3	26	97	10	14	9	218	289	293	583	75	287	24	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	400	345	81	15	3	3	39	75	10	14	9	235	330	322	652	87	289	19	10	298	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	428	389	78	12	6	3	23	102	12	13	4	201	267	285	552	85	261	24	5	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	428	380	89	13	6	4	32	78	12	13	4	234	314	332	645	97	282	18	7	293	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	—	509	467	123	25	7	5	30	108	6	25	10	263	316	379	695	116	331	21	6	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	—	509	453	136	29	8	6	44	86	6	25	10	300	370	439	809	139	357	17	9	357	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	309	283	58	8	3	5	14	83	6	10	1	205	257	307	565	102	270	27	5	254	58	-16	+2	+1	+3	+7	-0.3
2019	24	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	309	283	59	8	3	6	14	83	6	10	1	208	261	322	582	113	272	27	5	258	58	-16	+2	+1	+3	+7	-0.3
2020	25	INTL MLE	Criollos de Caguas	—	62	55	13	6	0	2	6	13	1	2	1	236	323	455	777	218	275	21	10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	INTL RAW	Criollos de Caguas	—	62	55	13	6	0	2	6	13	1	2	1	236	323	455	777	218	275	21	10	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	236	214	45	6	2	2	15	62	5	7	6	210	278	285	563	75	285	26	6	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	236	209	47	7	2	3	20	56	5	7	6	225	308	321	628	96	291	24	8	287	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	367	333	73	17	7	1	24	88	9	32	6	219	290	321	611	102	294	24	7	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	367	322	78	20	8	2	35	76	9	32	6	242	333	373	706	130	310	21	10	319	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	425	374	65	15	2	2	35	126	12	29	6	174	266	241	507	67	254	30	8	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	—	425	360	78	22	2	3	49	103	12	29	6	217	330	314	644	97	293	24	12	299	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	INTL MLE	Criollos de Caguas	—	56	48	7	3	0	1	7	15	1	1	1	146	268	271	539	125	188	27	12	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	INTL RAW	Criollos de Caguas	—	56	48	7	3	0	1	7	15	1	1	1	146	268	271	539	125	188	27	12	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	303	271	62	6	8	2	16	70	13	25	4	229	303	332	635	103	302	23	5	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	—	303	260	67	6	7	3	23	63	13	25	4	258	343	369	713	112	330	21	8	320	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	215	192	33	5	0	3	16	61	5	13	2	172	254	245	498	73	234	28	7	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	215	181	38	6	0	5	24	51	5	13	2	210	315	326	641	116	264	24	11	293	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	400	361	78	14	2	3	26	97	10	14	9	216	289	291	580	75	279	24	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	428	390	78	12	6	3	23	102	12	13	4	200	267	285	551	85	255	24	5	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	—	509	468	123	25	7	5	30	108	6	25	10	263	316	378	694	115	325	21	6	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	309	286	58	8	3	5	14	83	6	10	1	203	257	304	562	101	272	27	5	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	236	214	45	6	2	2	15	62	5	7	6	210	278	285	563	75	282	26	6	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	367	331	73	17	7	1	24	88	9	32	6	221	290	323	613	103	291	24	7	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	425	375	65	15	2	2	35	126	12	29	6	173	266	240	506	67	249	30	8	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	303	271	62	6	8	2	16	70	13	25	4	229	303	332	635	103	294	23	5	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	215	192	33	5	0	3	16	61	5	13	2	172	254	245	498	73	230	28	7	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	30	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	303	271	62	6	8	2	16	70	13	25	4	229	303	332	635	103	294	23	5	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	215	192	33	5	0	3	16	61	5	13	2	172	254	245	498	73	230	28	7	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	COL	10%	265	239	53	9	2	4	18	65	6	11	2	226	297	337	634	110	290	25	7	287	80	-6	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	COL	10%	16	15	3	1	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	239	308	366	674	127	306	25	6	302	80	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	COL	27%	146	132	29	5	1	2	10	37	3	4	1	220	289	323	612	102	286	25	7	278	74	-5	+0	-5	+2	+3	-0.4
2028	33	MLB CTX	COL	27%	40	36	8	1	0	1	3	10	1	1	0	233	301	350	651	117	301	25	8	293	74	-1	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	487	447	95	11	5	8	24	131	8	14	4	213	265	313	578	101	281	27	5	258	58	-23	+1	-2	+8	+11	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	597	128	15	7	11	32	175	11	19	5	214	268	318	586	104	283	27	5	258	58	-31	+2	-2	+10	+14	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	3620	3264	698	128	39	34	233	902	87	182	52	214	284	308	592	94	283	25	6	254	58	-30	+2	-6	+10	+16	-0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	125	23	7	6	42	162	16	33	9	213	285	307	592	94	283	25	6	254	58	-26	+2	-5	+9	+14	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 215 PAwOBA .286 → .229 (−57)K% 23.7% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.72%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	28.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.16%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.952	7.33%
HBP% /PA	2.33%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	2.08%
Singles /BIP	20.77%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.018	×0.952	18.72%
Doubles /BIP	4.62%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.018	×0.952	3.71%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.018	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.85%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.952	2.56%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .286 → .229; ISO .116 → .084; BABIP .264 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 303 PAwOBA .312 → .277 (−35)K% 20.8% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.79%	÷1.086	×1.200	—	—	22.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.59%	÷0.962	×0.690	—	×0.962	5.24%
HBP% /PA	4.29%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	3.88%
Singles /BIP	25.89%	÷1.053	×0.930	×1.024	×0.962	22.53%
Doubles /BIP	3.05%	÷0.881	×0.830	×1.024	×0.962	2.83%
Triples /BIP	3.55%	÷0.921	×0.970	×1.024	×0.962	3.69%
Home runs /BIP	1.52%	÷0.913	×0.700	—	×0.962	1.12%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 111, 2B 76, 3B 84, K 117, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .312 → .277; ISO .112 → .107; BABIP .330 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAARochester Red Wings · 425 PAwOBA .293 → .232 (−61)K% 24.2% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.24%	÷0.980	×1.200	—	—	29.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.53%	÷0.956	×0.690	—	×0.982	8.17%
HBP% /PA	2.82%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	2.61%
Singles /BIP	19.84%	÷0.996	×0.930	×0.996	×0.982	18.12%
Doubles /BIP	8.56%	÷1.137	×0.830	×0.996	×0.982	6.11%
Triples /BIP	0.78%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.996	×0.982	0.64%
Home runs /BIP	1.17%	÷1.058	×0.700	—	×0.982	0.76%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 127, 3B 130, K 96, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .293 → .232; ISO .097 → .068; BABIP .293 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAANorfolk Tides · 334 PAwOBA .320 → .276 (−44)K% 19.8% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.76%	÷1.017	×1.200	—	—	23.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.58%	÷1.048	×0.690	—	×0.992	6.26%
HBP% /PA	2.69%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	2.51%
Singles /BIP	19.91%	÷0.952	×0.930	×1.022	×0.992	19.71%
Doubles /BIP	8.85%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.022	×0.992	7.45%
Triples /BIP	2.65%	÷1.130	×0.970	×1.022	×0.992	2.31%
Home runs /BIP	0.88%	÷0.970	×0.700	—	×0.992	0.63%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 126, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .320 → .276; ISO .130 → .109; BABIP .316 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAANorfolk Tides · 112 PAwOBA .292 → .245 (−46)K% 22.3% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.32%	÷0.982	×1.200	—	—	27.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×1.003	8.39%
HBP% /PA	1.79%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.68%
Singles /BIP	18.31%	÷0.981	×0.930	×1.047	×1.003	18.23%
Doubles /BIP	5.63%	÷0.977	×0.830	×1.047	×1.003	5.02%
Triples /BIP	2.82%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.047	×1.003	2.37%
Home runs /BIP	1.41%	÷1.009	×0.700	—	×1.003	0.98%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 96, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.

Result: wOBA .292 → .245; ISO .115 → .093; BABIP .271 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AABowie Baysox · 19 PAwOBA .412 → .322 (−90)K% 15.8% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.79%	÷0.983	×1.220	—	—	19.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷1.065	×0.690	—	×0.978	6.67%
HBP% /PA	10.53%	—	×0.850	—	×0.978	8.75%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.978	×0.940	—	×0.978	15.67%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷0.995	×0.870	—	×0.978	7.13%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.920	—	×0.978	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.33%	÷1.258	×0.780	—	×0.978	5.05%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 152, 1B 96, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .412 → .322; ISO .267 → .183; BABIP .273 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAMidland RockHounds · 509 PAwOBA .348 → .303 (−45)K% 16.9% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.90%	÷0.968	×1.220	—	—	21.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.06%	÷0.985	×0.700	—	×1.012	5.79%
HBP% /PA	1.18%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	1.04%
Singles /BIP	25.34%	÷1.050	×0.920	×1.050	×1.012	23.60%
Doubles /BIP	7.90%	÷1.041	×0.840	×1.050	×1.012	6.78%
Triples /BIP	2.18%	÷1.150	×0.940	×1.050	×1.012	1.89%
Home runs /BIP	1.63%	÷0.922	×0.800	—	×1.012	1.44%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 110, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .348 → .303; ISO .139 → .120; BABIP .357 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAMidland RockHounds · 325 PAwOBA .280 → .239 (−42)K% 17.5% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.54%	÷0.939	×1.220	—	—	22.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.38%	÷0.990	×0.700	—	×1.027	5.36%
HBP% /PA	3.38%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	3.02%
Singles /BIP	20.52%	÷1.142	×0.920	×1.050	×1.027	17.84%
Doubles /BIP	4.80%	÷0.987	×0.840	×1.050	×1.027	4.41%
Triples /BIP	1.31%	÷0.977	×0.940	×1.050	×1.027	1.36%
Home runs /BIP	1.31%	÷0.862	×0.800	—	×1.027	1.25%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 128, 2B 97, 3B 95, K 88, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .280 → .239; ISO .091 → .085; BABIP .266 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#2Al Weis'62-'71 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,763 PA	2.7	1,763	7	55	223*	283*	300*	+10	+9	-0.2	1.3
/162	664	3	21	+3.8	+3.5	-0.1	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.7	470	8	12	215	262	312	+5	+1	-0.2	-0.2
/162	664	11	17	+7.1	+1.5	-0.3	pk7: -0
#3Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#4Hector Torres'68-'77 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,889 PA	2.8	1,889	18	7	215*	262*	312*	+16	+3	-2.1	-0.9
/162	664	6	2	+5.7	+1.2	-0.7	pk7: 0
#5Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
#6Enrique Wilson'97-'05 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,537 PA	2.3	1,537	22	14	233*	276*	337*	+8	+1	-2.5	-1.4
/162	664	10	6	+3.4	+0.4	-1.1	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Richie Martin Jr. (OGILVIE)	32	50	40	60	40	224/294/334	109	290	3	7	25%	7%	80	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chase d'Arnaud 2019 · MLB	32	46→50	46→45	56→60	45	228/288/361	133	290	14	23	26%	7%	83	+0.1	198/263/321	123	283	14	16	33%	7%	65	-1.2	148/216/240	92	221	11	15	37%	6%	28	-2.4
✕Wynton Bernard 2023 · MLB	32	49→59	46→45	62→60	44	242/286/382	140	287	13	30	21%	5%	86	+0.3	236/282/346	110	292	9	33	22%	6%	77	-0.3	231/279/323	91	291	7	39	22%	5%	66	-0.8
✕Jonathan Davis 2024 · MLB	32	46→52	44→45	55	48	224/301/347	123	296	11	21	27%	9%	85	+0.2	217/291/331	114	310	10	14	31%	8%	78	-0.3	188/273/268	80	289	6	14	34%	8%	53	-1.0
✕Willie Bloomquist 2010 · MLB	32	55	38→40	59→60	50	260/313/341	81	304	6	29	16%	7%	86	+0.3	261/303/353	92	301	7	24	15%	6%	86	+0.3	293/322/363	70	348	1	7	15%	4%	94	+0.3
✕Noe Mata 2006 · AAA	32	51→57	45	54→50	44	252/304/375	124	304	12	20	21%	6%	92	+0.7	257/291/369	112	302	11	10	18%	4%	85	+0.2	266/295/373	107	307	11	7	17%	3%	84	+0.1
✕Christian Zazueta 2017 · AAA	32	47→54	44→45	58→60	37	236/258/352	117	277	12	29	20%	2%	69	-0.9	224/250/319	95	264	9	27	19%	2%	58	-1.7	220/244/297	77	255	7	27	17%	2%	47	-1.5
✕Hernán Pérez 2023 · MLB	32	45→55	43→50	55	40	225/266/332	107	285	11	23	25%	5%	68	-1.0	211/258/332	121	269	14	16	26%	6%	65	-1.2	192/241/311	119	241	14	14	26%	5%	53	-1.0
✕Carlos Orrantia 2014 · AAA	32	47→54	43→45	52→55	40	233/268/343	110	286	10	20	22%	4%	71	-0.8	232/273/320	88	287	7	11	21%	5%	67	-1.1	230/271/303	73	283	5	7	20%	4%	60	-1.0
✕Kristopher Negrón 2018 · MLB	32	44→49	44→45	55	40	216/270/334	117	283	11	17	27%	5%	70	-0.9	221/280/345	124	318	14	14	33%	6%	76	-0.4	215/277/333	118	317	14	14	35%	7%	70	-0.6
✕Doug Glanville 2003 · MLB	32	52→56	42→45	57→55	45	252/285/357	105	274	10	24	13%	4%	80	-0.2	239/273/335	96	260	11	17	13%	4%	70	-0.8	236/261/305	69	254	10	17	12%	3%	59	-0.6
✕Andrew Romine 2017 · MLB	31	50→55	40	55	46	239/297/327	88	294	8	22	21%	6%	78	-0.3	231/286/330	99	285	8	15	21%	6%	75	-0.5	225/274/315	90	276	8	17	21%	5%	66	-0.6
✕Andy Fox 2003 · MLB	32	50→52	41→40	58→60	52	238/317/335	97	285	8	28	19%	9%	88	+0.4	215/288/314	99	272	8	17	23%	8%	72	-0.7	193/267/257	64	262	0	5	24%	6%	52	-0.4
✕Willy Taveras 2015 · AAA	33	46→56	42→45	60→65	44	225/279/329	104	272	9	27	20%	6%	72	-0.7	239/291/343	104	289	8	24	20%	5%	80	-0.2	247/297/348	101	301	8	22	20%	4%	80	-0.1
✕Tim Torres 2017 · AAA	33	51→49	44→45	55	45	246/304/370	124	320	11	20	26%	7%	91	+0.6	242/309/370	128	322	13	18	27%	9%	93	+0.8	238/321/351	114	321	12	20	28%	11%	96	+0.3
✕Pokey Reese 2004 · MLB	31	49→54	41→45	55	49	237/296/333	96	283	8	20	19%	7%	79	-0.2	227/282/330	103	281	10	14	22%	7%	73	-0.6	214/261/294	79	270	7	13	22%	6%	57	-0.8
✕Adam Engel 2023 · MLB	31	47→48	46→50	54→60	40	233/287/363	130	303	13	23	27%	5%	83	+0.1	212/284/343	131	308	13	23	33%	8%	78	-0.3	180/264/305	125	272	13	30	36%	9%	59	-1.0
✕Jack Reinheimer 2023 · AAA	31	44→52	40	55	41	214/267/301	87	289	7	20	28%	6%	61	-1.5	185/232/266	81	267	7	16	32%	5%	40	-3.1	136/171/180	44	185	3	12	28%	4%	-4	-1.4
✕Eugenio Velez 2014 · MLB	32	51→60	43→50	58→65	46	246/300/367	121	303	10	30	22%	7%	88	+0.5	251/296/349	98	308	7	29	20%	6%	82	+0.0	255/296/336	81	311	6	30	19%	5%	77	-0.2
✕Drew Maggi 2021 · AAA	32	46→56	43→45	49→60	46	223/299/334	111	287	10	12	25%	7%	82	-0.0	190/264/286	96	274	9	19	32%	7%	58	-1.7	156/223/217	61	220	4	22	29%	6%	24	-1.4
✕Matt Lipka 2022 · AAA	30	50→52	44→45	58→60	39	239/287/355	116	329	11	31	30%	5%	81	-0.1	222/281/328	106	323	9	34	32%	7%	72	-0.7	188/256/263	75	291	4	59	34%	8%	45	-1.0

Richie Martin Jr.

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps