José Alvarez
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A/ROKHOU | 113 | .287/.351/.356 | 0 | 5 | 48 | — | .221/.270/.270 |
| 2022 | 22 | AA/A+/AHOU | 268 | .279/.354/.379 | 3 | 8 | 66 | — | .238/.291/.326 |
| 2023 | 23 | AASTL | 309 | .256/.319/.285 | 0 | 6 | 55 | — | .243/.290/.267 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | — | 182 | 152 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 34 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 204 | 324 | 217 | 541 | 13 | 263 | 19 | 14 | 262 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros | — | 152 | 131 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 359 | 440 | 420 | 860 | 61 | 443 | 18 | 11 | 387 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Astros | — | 141 | 127 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 276 | 343 | 370 | 713 | 94 | 333 | 18 | 8 | 321 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 20 | INTL | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 64 | 61 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 295 | 328 | 311 | 640 | 16 | 383 | 22 | 5 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 62 | 57 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 263 | 311 | 316 | 627 | 53 | 357 | 26 | 6 | 282 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Astros | — | 51 | 44 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 318 | 400 | 409 | 809 | 91 | 400 | 20 | 10 | 360 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 107 | 95 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 253 | 336 | 326 | 663 | 74 | 377 | 31 | 10 | 307 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 70 | 67 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 254 | 286 | 373 | 659 | 119 | 314 | 21 | 4 | 293 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 91 | 78 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 333 | 429 | 449 | 877 | 115 | 431 | 21 | 14 | 396 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 309 | 281 | 72 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 54 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 256 | 319 | 285 | 604 | 28 | 316 | 17 | 8 | 280 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros Orange | — | 182 | 159 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 41 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 145 | 240 | 151 | 391 | 6 | 190 | 23 | 10 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros | — | 152 | 136 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 250 | 320 | 287 | 607 | 37 | 313 | 22 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Astros | — | 141 | 131 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 191 | 243 | 252 | 495 | 61 | 254 | 26 | 5 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 62 | 58 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 207 | 246 | 241 | 487 | 34 | 326 | 35 | 5 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 51 | 46 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 239 | 300 | 304 | 604 | 65 | 316 | 27 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 107 | 99 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 42 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 212 | 271 | 273 | 544 | 61 | 368 | 39 | 7 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 70 | 68 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 229 | 309 | 537 | 103 | 273 | 30 | 3 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 91 | 82 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 293 | 363 | 402 | 765 | 110 | 413 | 29 | 10 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 309 | 288 | 70 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 67 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 243 | 290 | 267 | 557 | 24 | 310 | 22 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros Orange | — | 182 | 159 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 41 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 145 | 240 | 151 | 391 | 6 | 195 | 23 | 10 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Astros Orange | — | 182 | 152 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 34 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 204 | 324 | 217 | 541 | 13 | 263 | 19 | 14 | 262 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros | — | 152 | 136 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 250 | 320 | 287 | 607 | 37 | 324 | 22 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Astros | — | 152 | 131 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 359 | 440 | 420 | 860 | 61 | 443 | 18 | 11 | 387 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Astros | — | 141 | 131 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 191 | 243 | 252 | 495 | 61 | 253 | 26 | 5 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK RAW | GCL Astros | — | 141 | 127 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 276 | 343 | 370 | 713 | 94 | 333 | 18 | 8 | 321 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 20 | INTL MLE | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 64 | 61 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 295 | 328 | 311 | 640 | 16 | 383 | 22 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 20 | INTL RAW | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 64 | 61 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 295 | 328 | 311 | 640 | 16 | 383 | 22 | 5 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 113 | 104 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 36 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 221 | 270 | 269 | 540 | 48 | 329 | 32 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 113 | 101 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 26 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 287 | 351 | 356 | 708 | 69 | 377 | 23 | 8 | 317 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 268 | 249 | 58 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 90 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 233 | 287 | 309 | 597 | 76 | 357 | 34 | 7 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 268 | 240 | 67 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 67 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 279 | 354 | 379 | 734 | 100 | 376 | 25 | 10 | 333 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 309 | 288 | 70 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 67 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 243 | 290 | 267 | 557 | 24 | 315 | 22 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | Springfield Cardinals | — | 309 | 281 | 72 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 54 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 256 | 319 | 285 | 604 | 28 | 316 | 17 | 8 | 280 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros Orange | — | 182 | 160 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 41 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 144 | 240 | 150 | 390 | 6 | 190 | 23 | 10 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros | — | 152 | 137 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 248 | 320 | 285 | 605 | 36 | 313 | 22 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Astros | — | 141 | 131 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 191 | 243 | 252 | 495 | 61 | 254 | 26 | 5 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 113 | 105 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 36 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 219 | 270 | 267 | 537 | 48 | 321 | 32 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 268 | 247 | 58 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 90 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 235 | 287 | 312 | 599 | 77 | 358 | 34 | 7 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 309 | 287 | 70 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 67 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 244 | 290 | 268 | 558 | 24 | 310 | 22 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1229 | 1128 | 251 | 29 | 4 | 3 | 81 | 317 | 10 | 29 | 15 | 223 | 281 | 263 | 544 | 41 | 305 | 26 | 7 | 230 | 42 | -85 | -0 | +0 | +22 | +27 | -3.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 133 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 43 | 168 | 5 | 15 | 8 | 223 | 281 | 265 | 545 | 42 | 305 | 26 | 7 | 230 | 42 | -45 | -0 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -2.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AASpringfield Cardinals · 309 PAwOBA .274 → .250 (−24)K% 17.5% → 21.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.48% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.77% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 5.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.19% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 28.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.52% | ÷1.031 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 3.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.080 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .274 → .250; ISO .028 → .025; BABIP .316 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 107 PAwOBA .299 → .247 (−52)K% 30.8% → 39.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.84% | ÷0.947 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.28% | ÷1.084 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 6.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.65% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 30.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.45% | ÷0.986 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 6.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.044 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.61% | ÷1.040 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.29% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 109, K 89, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .299 → .247; ISO .074 → .058; BABIP .377 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 91 PAwOBA .386 → .325 (−61)K% 20.9% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.88% | ÷0.976 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.999 | ×0.690 | — | — | 9.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.90% | ÷0.992 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | — | 33.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.78% | ÷0.930 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | — | 6.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.69% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | — | 1.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.69% | ÷0.949 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.43% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 98, 2B 86, 3B 130, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .386 → .325; ISO .115 → .096; BABIP .431 → .413. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Asheville Tourists · 70 PAwOBA .285 → .220 (−65)K% 21.4% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.43% | ÷0.927 | ×1.310 | — | — | 30.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.29% | ÷0.933 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 2.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.031 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 20.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.77% | ÷1.131 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 4.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.92% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 1.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.92% | ÷0.972 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.76% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 106, 2B 126, 3B 80, K 85, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .285 → .220; ISO .119 → .094; BABIP .314 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 62 PAwOBA .280 → .225 (−54)K% 25.8% → 35.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.81% | ÷0.997 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.45% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 4.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.27% | ÷0.987 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 27.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.32% | ÷1.066 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 5.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.084 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.176 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 135, 1B 97, 2B 113, 3B 117, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .280 → .225; ISO .053 → .038; BABIP .357 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Astros · 51 PAwOBA .358 → .257 (−101)K% 19.6% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.61% | ÷0.994 | ×1.440 | — | — | 28.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.80% | ÷1.052 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 5.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.96% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.35% | ÷0.978 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 26.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.105 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 3.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.94% | ÷1.027 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 2.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 96, 2B 121, 3B 105, K 99, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .358 → .257; ISO .091 → .059; BABIP .400 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKGCL Astros · 141 PAwOBA .315 → .222 (−93)K% 17.7% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.73% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 4.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.42% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 20.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 3.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 1.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.77% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .315 → .222; ISO .094 → .064; BABIP .333 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 DSLDSL Astros · 152 PAwOBA .383 → .272 (−111)K% 17.8% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.76% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 7.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.32% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 37.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 26.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 4.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .383 → .272; ISO .061 → .039; BABIP .443 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .