Gabriel Reyes
P
West Michigan Whitecaps
Age 23
LHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.8 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108117vR 126
ERA4.74
FIP4.74
K%18.5%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%8.7%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Tigers | 15 | 5 | 24 | 100 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 33% | 1.6 | 21.8% | 3.8% | 18.0% | 0.0% | 3.42 | 1.74 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Tigers | 15 | 5 | 24 | 100 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 33% | 1.6 | 32.0% | 3.0% | 29.0% | 0.0% | 3.42 | 0.78 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Tigers | 10 | 6 | 32 | 141 | 29 | 9 | 2 | 60% | 3.2 | 14.0% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 5.29 | 4.04 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Tigers | 10 | 6 | 32 | 141 | 29 | 9 | 2 | 60% | 3.2 | 20.6% | 6.4% | 14.2% | 1.4% | 5.29 | 2.95 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 13 | 66 | 264 | 82 | 19 | 6 | 76% | 3.9 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 14.0% | 2.6% | 3.97 | 3.74 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 13 | 66 | 264 | 82 | 19 | 6 | 76% | 3.9 | 31.1% | 7.2% | 23.9% | 2.3% | 3.97 | 2.66 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 19 | 16 | 79 | 316 | 71 | 28 | 4 | 84% | 4.1 | 16.6% | 10.5% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 2.40 | 4.26 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 19 | 16 | 79 | 316 | 71 | 28 | 4 | 84% | 4.1 | 22.5% | 8.9% | 13.6% | 1.3% | 2.40 | 3.02 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 9 | 8 | 33 | 161 | 25 | 34 | 4 | 89% | 3.7 | 12.0% | 24.3% | -12.3% | 3.1% | 4.91 | 6.87 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 62 | 260 | 48 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 5.1 | 18.5% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.74 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | DET | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.5% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.67 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | DET | — | — | 95 | 421 | 73 | 59 | 11 | — | — | 17.3% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.80 | 5.48 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | DET | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 18.5% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.29 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 53 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 56 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.7% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 57 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.0% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | DET | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 56 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | DET | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.54 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | DET | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 45 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 21.0% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 4.38 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | DET | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 48 | 21 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 30 | 174 | 736 | 153 | 67 | 20 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.8% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.01 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 176 | 77 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.8% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.01 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 70 | 48 | 233 | 982 | 173 | 110 | 22 | 69% | 3.3 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 3.70 | 4.26 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 41 | 200 | 842 | 148 | 94 | 19 | 69% | 3.3 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 3.70 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gabriel Reyes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 18.5% | 9.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.47 | 20.5% | 11.4% | 191 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.35 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 119 | -0.28 | 3.54 | 186 | 89 |
| Nate Peterson L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .284 | 4.47 | 17.1% | 5.8% | 213 | +0.07 | 3.67 | 288 | 88 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .360 | 5.95 | 16.3% | -2.8% | 144 | +1.15 | 4.80 | 223 | 86 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 84 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .349 | 4.18 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 175 | -0.31 | 3.65 | 308 | 83 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.16 | 19.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .300 | 4.71 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 152 | -0.45 | 4.13 | 265 | 82 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.63 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .249 | 4.99 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 48 | +1.36 | 3.10 | 196 | 81 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 4.65 | 17.8% | 1.7% | 139 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 234 | 81 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 80 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.84 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .315 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | -0.07 | 4.77 | 154 | 80 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.4% | .312 | 4.46 | 21.0% | 7.7% | 184 | +0.10 | 3.84 | 249 | 80 |
| Sam Garcia L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.74 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.62 | 25.5% | 9.2% | 24 | -1.12 | 3.62 | 125 | 79 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.06 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.60 | 15.1% | 4.8% | 51 | +2.54 | 4.06 | 248 | 79 |
| Ryan Magdic L 2028 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.64 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .314 | 3.18 | 21.5% | 16.7% | 54 | -0.46 | 3.18 | 150 | 79 |
| Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 79 |
| Cole Ragans L 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.15 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.38 | 26.8% | 17.4% | 445 | -1.77 | 2.46 | 623 | 79 |
| Evan Grills L 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.51 | 13.0% | 8.6% | 4.4% | .335 | 3.80 | 16.1% | 11.6% | 221 | -1.71 | 3.24 | 309 | 79 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 78 |
| Jaime Arias L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.91 | 15.6% | 9.9% | 3.4% | .332 | 5.63 | 15.9% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.72 | 4.52 | 243 | 78 |
| Ben Brecht L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.37 | 17.3% | 5.5% | 3.7% | .237 | 4.39 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 43 | +0.02 | 4.37 | 118 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 63 | 20.2% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.55 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |