Gabriel Reyes
P
West Michigan Whitecaps
+0.5
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.8 · 2028
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.6%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%12.1%
IP74
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2028
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Tigers | 15 | 5 | 24 | 100 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 21.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 3.42 | 1.74 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Tigers | 10 | 6 | 32 | 141 | 29 | 9 | 2 | 14.0% | 8.0% | 2.0% | 5.29 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 17 | 13 | 66 | 264 | 82 | 19 | 6 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.84 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 19 | 16 | 79 | 316 | 71 | 28 | 4 | 16.6% | 10.5% | 1.9% | 2.40 | 4.05 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 2 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 6 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.18 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 74 | 314 | 68 | 30 | 9 | 21.6% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | DET | — | — | 80 | 344 | 74 | 36 | 10 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.11 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 76 | 322 | 72 | 29 | 9 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.29 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 77 | 326 | 74 | 29 | 9 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.22 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 77 | 326 | 75 | 29 | 9 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.21 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 77 | 323 | 75 | 29 | 9 | 23.1% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.23 | 4.22 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 76 | 319 | 73 | 28 | 9 | 23.0% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.25 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 71 | 28 | 9 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.29 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 72 | 302 | 69 | 27 | 9 | 22.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.35 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 65 | 27 | 9 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.43 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 62 | 26 | 9 | 22.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.51 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 63 | 267 | 58 | 25 | 9 | 21.9% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.61 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 55 | 25 | 8 | 21.5% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.72 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | DET | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 50 | 24 | 8 | 21.1% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.77 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | DET | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 46 | 23 | 8 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 63 | 42 | 206 | 851 | 160 | 77 | 17 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.0% | 3.50 | 3.77 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 41 | 200 | 826 | 155 | 75 | 17 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.0% | 3.50 | 3.77 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gabriel Reyes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 21.6% | 9.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.24 | 22.7% | 13.8% | 231 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.31 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 3.0% | .324 | 4.65 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 125 | +0.34 | 4.31 | 201 | 94 |
| Ryne Slack L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.08 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .293 | 4.99 | 15.4% | 2.5% | 142 | +0.91 | 4.08 | 212 | 94 |
| Michael Johnson L 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .260 | 4.75 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.88 | 256 | 93 |
| Wyatt Short L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.83 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 2.5% | .262 | 3.96 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 91 | +0.13 | 2.73 | 288 | 91 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.91 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .326 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.70 | 1.71 | 206 | 91 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.86 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.86 | 176 | 90 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .298 | 4.50 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.05 | 3.50 | 300 | 90 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.34 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.09 | 4.34 | 110 | 90 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .268 | 3.50 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.76 | 1.84 | 238 | 89 |
| Chris Cotton L 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.17 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.49 | 3.68 | 128 | 88 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 4.0% | .332 | 4.36 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 119 | -0.40 | 3.70 | 186 | 88 |
| Nate Peterson L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.45 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.7% | .284 | 4.96 | 17.1% | 5.7% | 161 | +0.51 | 4.32 | 236 | 88 |
| Diego Barrera L 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .310 | 3.67 | 18.5% | 9.7% | 44 | -0.05 | 3.67 | 111 | 87 |
| Hayden Howard L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.17 | 16.4% | 8.1% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.80 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 123 | -0.37 | 3.76 | 200 | 87 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.91 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 4.0% | .360 | 6.05 | 16.3% | -2.8% | 144 | +1.14 | 4.91 | 223 | 86 |
| Ben Onyshko L 2025 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.50 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .349 | 5.44 | 20.4% | 8.0% | 100 | +1.94 | 3.50 | 219 | 86 |
| Jake Bennett L 2025 · 3.40 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.40 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 2.1% | .339 | 3.17 | 17.4% | 10.3% | 83 | -0.23 | 1.70 | 146 | 86 |
| Haylen Green L 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.98 | 16.9% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .291 | 4.09 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 49 | +0.11 | 3.98 | 104 | 86 |
| Christian Jones L 2027 · 3.32 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.32 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 1.6% | .319 | 3.98 | 15.0% | 3.7% | 89 | +0.66 | 3.32 | 161 | 86 |
| Dante Biasi L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.91 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 3.7% | .251 | 5.64 | 19.3% | 2.3% | 153 | +0.73 | 4.91 | 224 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| Totals | $7M | $18M | +$11M | ||