Gabriel Reyes — OGILVIE

Gabriel Reyes P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.9 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%18.5%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%8.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CMD4050

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers	15	5	24	100	32	3	0	33%	1.6	21.8%	3.8%	18.0%	0.0%	3.42	1.74	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers	15	5	24	100	32	3	0	33%	1.6	32.0%	3.0%	29.0%	0.0%	3.42	0.78	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	10	6	32	141	29	9	2	60%	3.2	14.0%	8.0%	6.0%	2.0%	5.29	4.03	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	10	6	32	141	29	9	2	60%	3.2	20.6%	6.4%	14.2%	1.4%	5.29	2.95	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	66	264	82	19	6	76%	3.9	22.6%	8.6%	14.0%	2.8%	3.97	3.82	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	66	264	82	19	6	76%	3.9	22.6%	8.6%	14.0%	2.8%	3.97	3.82	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	13	66	264	82	19	6	76%	3.9	31.1%	7.2%	23.9%	2.3%	3.97	2.66	—
2025	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	19	16	79	316	71	28	4	84%	4.1	16.6%	10.5%	6.2%	1.9%	2.40	4.07	—
2025	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	19	16	79	316	71	28	4	84%	4.1	16.6%	10.5%	6.2%	1.9%	2.40	4.07	—
2025	22	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	19	16	79	316	71	28	4	84%	4.1	22.5%	8.9%	13.6%	1.3%	2.40	3.02	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	9	8	33	161	25	34	4	89%	3.7	12.0%	24.3%	-12.3%	3.1%	4.91	6.87	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	9	8	33	161	25	34	4	89%	3.7	12.0%	24.3%	-12.3%	3.1%	4.91	6.87	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	DET	9	8	33	161	25	34	4	89%	3.7	15.5%	21.1%	-5.6%	2.5%	4.91	5.83	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	DET	1	1	6	24	4	2	1	100%	5.6	18.5%	9.9%	8.6%	2.8%	4.73	4.73	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	39	185	29	36	5	—	—	15.9%	19.7%	-3.8%	2.5%	4.88	6.56	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	73	307	61	29	9	100%	5.6	19.9%	9.3%	10.5%	2.8%	4.60	4.54	+0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	74	310	64	28	9	100%	5.7	20.7%	9.0%	11.6%	2.8%	4.49	4.43	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	74	310	65	28	9	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.0%	12.0%	2.8%	4.43	4.40	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	72	306	64	28	9	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	2.9%	4.43	4.44	+0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	70	296	62	27	9	100%	5.9	21.0%	9.2%	11.7%	3.0%	4.48	4.52	+0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	67	283	59	27	9	100%	6.1	20.7%	9.5%	11.3%	3.1%	4.58	4.65	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	63	266	54	26	9	100%	6.3	20.4%	9.8%	10.6%	3.3%	4.73	4.83	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	31	131	26	12	4	100%	5.2	19.9%	9.3%	10.5%	2.7%	4.53	4.47	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	49	207	43	19	6	100%	6.1	20.7%	9.0%	11.6%	2.7%	4.42	4.36	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	58	245	52	22	7	100%	5.8	21.0%	9.0%	12.0%	2.7%	4.36	4.33	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	62	262	55	24	7	100%	6.2	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	2.8%	4.36	4.37	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	62	262	55	24	7	100%	6.2	21.0%	9.2%	11.7%	2.9%	4.41	4.45	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	61	258	53	24	8	100%	6.1	20.7%	9.5%	11.3%	3.0%	4.51	4.58	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	58	245	50	24	8	100%	5.8	20.4%	9.8%	10.6%	3.2%	4.65	4.75	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	382	1611	334	150	46	100%	6.0	20.7%	9.3%	11.5%	2.9%	4.46	4.10	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	175	79	24	100%	5.9	20.7%	9.3%	11.5%	2.9%	4.46	4.10	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		70	48	233	982	173	110	21	69%	3.3	17.6%	11.2%	6.4%	2.2%	3.70	4.22	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	41	200	842	148	94	18	69%	3.3	17.6%	11.2%	6.4%	2.2%	3.70	4.22	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabriel Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	18.5%	9.9%	2.8%	—	4.46	20.5%	11.4%	220	-0.27	—	—	—
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	88
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	87
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	85
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	84
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	83
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	82
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	82
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	81
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	80
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	80
Evan Grills L 2015 · 5.42 FIP	23	SP-	5.42	13.0%	8.6%	4.2%	.335	4.02	16.1%	11.6%	221	-1.40	3.41	309	79
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	79
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	79
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	79
Jaime Arias L 2022 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP-	5.00	15.6%	9.9%	3.6%	.332	5.54	15.7%	4.7%	77	+0.54	4.38	243	78
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	78
Ryan Williamson L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.57	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.47	4.10	123	77
Ben Brecht L 2021 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	17.3%	5.5%	3.8%	.237	4.44	21.1%	17.2%	43	+0.01	4.43	118	77
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	77
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	69	20.4%	9.3%	1.14	4.55
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93