Kala'i Rosario
RF Wichita Wind Surge| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 393 | .248/.338/.411 | 11 | 6 | 82 | — | .195/.265/.338 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAMIN | 579 | .256/.359/.487 | 25 | 32 | 78 | — | .197/.281/.368 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA/AAMIN | 414 | .260/.366/.480 | 22 | 11 | 83 | — | .210/.295/.374 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBMIN | 4 | .205/.286/.369 | 0 | 0 | 84 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 26 | MLBMIN | 58 | .208/.289/.375 | 2 | 2 | 86 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ33% MLB | 27 | MLBMIN | 93 | .209/.289/.374 | 3 | 2 | 86 | -0.0 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | FCL Twins | — | 208 | 188 | 52 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 66 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 277 | 343 | 452 | 795 | 176 | 398 | 32 | 9 | 350 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 419 | 373 | 89 | 21 | 3 | 12 | 34 | 136 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 239 | 321 | 408 | 728 | 169 | 341 | 32 | 8 | 326 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 530 | 445 | 112 | 27 | 3 | 21 | 75 | 157 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 252 | 367 | 467 | 834 | 216 | 336 | 30 | 14 | 368 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 105 | 89 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 213 | 333 | 483 | 816 | 270 | 250 | 32 | 14 | 360 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 299 | 264 | 62 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 235 | 322 | 405 | 727 | 170 | 325 | 30 | 11 | 325 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 94 | 79 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 291 | 391 | 430 | 822 | 139 | 370 | 26 | 12 | 364 | 132 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 579 | 497 | 127 | 30 | 5 | 25 | 73 | 159 | 7 | 32 | 7 | 256 | 359 | 487 | 846 | 231 | 324 | 27 | 13 | 372 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 163 | 151 | 45 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 50 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 298 | 350 | 563 | 913 | 265 | 378 | 31 | 7 | 397 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 251 | 203 | 47 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 42 | 78 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 232 | 376 | 419 | 795 | 187 | 313 | 31 | 17 | 360 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 208 | 195 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 95 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 164 | 213 | 262 | 474 | 97 | 301 | 46 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 419 | 385 | 71 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 186 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 184 | 249 | 306 | 555 | 122 | 323 | 44 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 530 | 464 | 88 | 19 | 2 | 14 | 56 | 204 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 190 | 285 | 330 | 615 | 140 | 291 | 38 | 11 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 299 | 272 | 53 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 115 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 195 | 265 | 338 | 603 | 143 | 302 | 38 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 579 | 517 | 102 | 23 | 4 | 19 | 53 | 206 | 7 | 32 | 7 | 197 | 281 | 368 | 648 | 170 | 281 | 36 | 9 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 163 | 154 | 38 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 60 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 247 | 288 | 442 | 730 | 195 | 346 | 37 | 5 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 251 | 215 | 40 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 95 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 186 | 300 | 330 | 630 | 144 | 273 | 38 | 12 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 208 | 195 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 95 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 164 | 213 | 262 | 474 | 97 | 296 | 46 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Twins | — | 208 | 188 | 52 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 66 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 277 | 343 | 452 | 795 | 176 | 398 | 32 | 9 | 350 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 419 | 385 | 71 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 186 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 184 | 249 | 306 | 555 | 122 | 328 | 44 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A RAW | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 419 | 373 | 89 | 21 | 3 | 12 | 34 | 136 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 239 | 321 | 408 | 728 | 169 | 341 | 32 | 8 | 326 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 635 | 557 | 106 | 23 | 3 | 17 | 67 | 244 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 190 | 285 | 334 | 619 | 144 | 297 | 38 | 11 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 635 | 534 | 131 | 30 | 3 | 28 | 90 | 191 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 245 | 361 | 470 | 831 | 225 | 323 | 30 | 14 | 367 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 393 | 354 | 69 | 21 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 151 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 195 | 269 | 336 | 605 | 141 | 305 | 38 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 393 | 343 | 85 | 19 | 2 | 11 | 43 | 115 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 248 | 338 | 411 | 750 | 163 | 336 | 29 | 11 | 334 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 579 | 517 | 102 | 23 | 4 | 19 | 53 | 206 | 7 | 32 | 7 | 197 | 281 | 368 | 648 | 170 | 282 | 36 | 9 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA RAW | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 579 | 497 | 127 | 30 | 5 | 25 | 73 | 159 | 7 | 32 | 7 | 256 | 359 | 487 | 846 | 231 | 324 | 27 | 13 | 372 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 414 | 369 | 77 | 8 | 1 | 16 | 38 | 155 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 209 | 293 | 366 | 659 | 157 | 307 | 37 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 414 | 354 | 92 | 10 | 1 | 22 | 53 | 128 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 260 | 366 | 480 | 846 | 220 | 341 | 31 | 13 | 374 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 208 | 194 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 95 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 165 | 213 | 263 | 475 | 98 | 301 | 46 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 419 | 383 | 71 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 186 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 185 | 249 | 308 | 557 | 123 | 323 | 44 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 635 | 556 | 106 | 23 | 3 | 17 | 67 | 244 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 191 | 285 | 335 | 620 | 144 | 291 | 38 | 11 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 393 | 354 | 69 | 21 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 151 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 195 | 269 | 336 | 605 | 141 | 302 | 38 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 579 | 514 | 102 | 23 | 4 | 19 | 53 | 206 | 7 | 32 | 7 | 198 | 281 | 370 | 650 | 171 | 281 | 36 | 9 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 414 | 367 | 77 | 8 | 1 | 16 | 38 | 155 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 210 | 293 | 368 | 661 | 158 | 302 | 37 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 393 | 354 | 69 | 21 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 151 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 195 | 269 | 336 | 605 | 141 | 302 | 38 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 579 | 514 | 102 | 23 | 4 | 19 | 53 | 206 | 7 | 32 | 7 | 198 | 281 | 370 | 650 | 171 | 281 | 36 | 9 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 414 | 367 | 77 | 8 | 1 | 16 | 38 | 155 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 210 | 293 | 368 | 661 | 158 | 302 | 37 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIN | 2% | 380 | 339 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 13 | 34 | 133 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 205 | 286 | 368 | 654 | 163 | 287 | 35 | 9 | 292 | 84 | -7 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +8 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIN | 2% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 286 | 369 | 655 | 164 | 287 | 25 | 0 | 293 | 84 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIN | 23% | 253 | 225 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 87 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 208 | 288 | 374 | 662 | 166 | 287 | 34 | 9 | 296 | 86 | -4 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIN | 33% | 281 | 251 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 95 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 208 | 289 | 373 | 662 | 164 | 287 | 34 | 9 | 296 | 86 | -5 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIN | 39% | 296 | 265 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 99 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 208 | 288 | 370 | 658 | 161 | 286 | 33 | 9 | 294 | 85 | -5 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIN | 42% | 296 | 265 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 98 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 208 | 287 | 366 | 653 | 158 | 285 | 33 | 9 | 292 | 84 | -6 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIN | 43% | 294 | 263 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 97 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 207 | 285 | 360 | 645 | 153 | 283 | 33 | 9 | 289 | 82 | -6 | +0 | -2 | -3 | +6 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIN | 23% | 58 | 52 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 208 | 289 | 375 | 663 | 167 | 287 | 34 | 9 | 296 | 86 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIN | 33% | 93 | 84 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 32 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 209 | 289 | 374 | 663 | 165 | 287 | 34 | 9 | 296 | 86 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIN | 39% | 116 | 104 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 39 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 209 | 289 | 371 | 659 | 162 | 286 | 34 | 9 | 295 | 85 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIN | 42% | 123 | 110 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 208 | 287 | 366 | 654 | 158 | 285 | 33 | 9 | 292 | 84 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIN | 43% | 127 | 114 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 42 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 285 | 361 | 646 | 154 | 283 | 33 | 9 | 289 | 82 | -3 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 517 | 464 | 94 | 17 | 0 | 17 | 45 | 174 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 203 | 280 | 349 | 629 | 147 | 279 | 34 | 9 | 293 | 74 | -10 | +0 | -1 | -6 | +11 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 583 | 117 | 21 | 0 | 21 | 57 | 219 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 201 | 279 | 345 | 623 | 144 | 277 | 34 | 9 | 293 | 74 | -12 | +1 | -2 | -7 | +14 | -0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4278 | 3833 | 757 | 152 | 20 | 127 | 369 | 1586 | 52 | 100 | 25 | 197 | 277 | 347 | 624 | 149 | 295 | 37 | 9 | 278 | 74 | -30 | +3 | -3 | -17 | +35 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 582 | 115 | 23 | 3 | 19 | 56 | 241 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 198 | 277 | 345 | 622 | 148 | 295 | 37 | 9 | 278 | 74 | -12 | +1 | -1 | -7 | +14 | -0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 251 PAwOBA .353 → .280 (−73)K% 31.1% → 37.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.08% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 11.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.99% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 1.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.966 | ×1.012 | 22.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.966 | ×1.012 | 3.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.966 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 7.12% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .353 → .280; ISO .187 → .148; BABIP .313 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 163 PAwOBA .385 → .305 (−80)K% 30.7% → 36.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 4.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.61% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.983 | ×1.048 | 26.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | ×1.048 | 4.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×1.048 | 0.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 7.99% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .385 → .305; ISO .265 → .188; BABIP .378 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 579 PAwOBA .363 → .284 (−79)K% 27.5% → 35.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.46% | ÷0.941 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.61% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 9.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.21% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.82% | ÷1.025 | ×0.920 | ×0.984 | ×1.027 | 17.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.88% | ÷1.031 | ×0.840 | ×0.984 | ×1.027 | 7.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.48% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.984 | ×1.027 | 1.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.40% | ÷0.986 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 6.16% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 105, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 88, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .363 → .284; ISO .231 → .178; BABIP .324 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAWichita Wind Surge · 299 PAwOBA .318 → .266 (−52)K% 30.4% → 38.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.43% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 38.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.70% | ÷0.963 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 8.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.65% | ÷1.091 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 18.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.98% | ÷0.979 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 10.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.58% | ÷1.126 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.62% | ÷0.845 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 4.56% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 118, 2B 96, 3B 125, K 93, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .318 → .266; ISO .170 → .150; BABIP .325 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 530 PAwOBA .361 → .275 (−86)K% 29.6% → 38.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.62% | ÷0.977 | ×1.270 | — | — | 38.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.96% | ÷0.966 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 10.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.13% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.18% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×1.027 | 19.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.38% | ÷1.051 | ×0.810 | ×0.982 | ×1.027 | 7.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.04% | ÷0.994 | ×0.850 | ×0.982 | ×1.027 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.29% | ÷1.134 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 5.29% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 99, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .361 → .275; ISO .216 → .149; BABIP .336 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 419 PAwOBA .316 → .244 (−72)K% 32.5% → 44.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.46% | ÷0.991 | ×1.360 | — | — | 44.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.64% | ÷1.026 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 5.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 2.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.36% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×1.003 | ×1.030 | 21.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.86% | ÷0.916 | ×0.830 | ×1.003 | ×1.030 | 8.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.27% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.003 | ×1.030 | 1.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 4.17% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 98, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .316 → .244; ISO .169 → .127; BABIP .341 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Twins · 208 PAwOBA .342 → .216 (−127)K% 31.7% → 45.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.73% | ÷0.996 | ×1.440 | — | — | 45.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.13% | ÷0.989 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 5.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.05% | ÷1.027 | ×0.820 | ×0.975 | ×1.008 | 21.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.20% | ÷0.982 | ×0.720 | ×0.975 | ×1.008 | 5.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.28% | ÷1.004 | ×0.720 | ×0.975 | ×1.008 | 2.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.10% | ÷0.982 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 3.28% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 105, 2B 96, 3B 101, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .342 → .216; ISO .176 → .109; BABIP .398 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .