Franklin Marquez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Franklin Marquez P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 23 LHP 6'0" / 165 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117125vR 133

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

K%20.9%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%5.8%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	10	0	16	68	18	4	3	0%	1.6	18.0%	7.4%	10.6%	6.1%	4.02	5.85	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	10	0	16	68	18	4	3	0%	1.6	26.5%	5.9%	20.6%	4.4%	4.02	4.06	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	15	2	28	133	29	7	3	13%	1.9	14.8%	6.6%	8.2%	3.5%	5.72	4.58	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	15	2	28	133	29	7	3	13%	1.9	21.8%	5.3%	16.5%	2.3%	5.72	3.17	—
2023	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	27	0	35	179	25	37	2	0%	1.3	10.3%	24.4%	-14.1%	1.6%	3.60	6.19	—
2023	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	27	0	35	179	25	37	2	0%	1.3	10.3%	24.4%	-14.1%	1.6%	3.60	6.19	—
2023	20	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	27	0	35	179	25	37	2	0%	1.3	14.0%	20.7%	-6.7%	1.1%	3.60	5.59	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.9%	15.0%	5.8%	3.0%	5.26	5.26	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	WSH	20	0	21	90	19	12	3	0%	1.1	21.7%	13.2%	8.5%	2.9%	5.03	4.94	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	WSH	9	0	9	38	8	5	1	0%	1.0	21.7%	13.2%	8.5%	2.9%	5.03	4.94	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	9	38	8	5	1	0%	1.0	21.7%	13.2%	8.5%	2.9%	5.03	4.56	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	110	22	0%	1.1	21.7%	13.2%	8.5%	2.9%	5.03	4.56	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		52	2	79	380	50	57	12	4%	1.5	13.3%	15.1%	-1.8%	3.0%	4.44	5.56	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	5	200	962	128	145	29	4%	1.5	13.3%	15.1%	-1.8%	3.0%	4.44	5.56	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Franklin Marquez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	20.9%	15.0%	3.0%	—	4.94	21.7%	8.5%	21	-0.32	—	—	—
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	91
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	88
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	86
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	86
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	86
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	85
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	85
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	85
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.89	22.1%	8.8%	105	-0.31	3.14	161	84
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	84
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	84
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	83
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	83
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	83
Brandon Neeck L 2023 · 4.19 FIP	23	SU	4.19	21.0%	13.9%	2.0%	.419	4.24	22.9%	8.7%	176	+0.05	3.24	203	83
Fred Schlichtholz L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.368	4.13	18.5%	8.4%	80	-0.10	3.49	175	82
Nick Jones L 2022 · 4.21 FIP	23	SU	4.21	22.3%	17.9%	1.3%	.284	3.63	21.7%	12.0%	143	-0.58	1.32	201	82
Ignacio Briceno L 2023 · 4.54 FIP	22	SU	4.54	17.3%	12.7%	2.4%	.270	3.28	14.7%	3.5%	76	-1.26	2.39	156	82
Joseph Menefee L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	23	SU	4.50	21.9%	18.5%	1.7%	.361	4.71	24.8%	6.0%	99	+0.21	3.22	146	81
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	81